Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Onboard and real-time artificial satellite orbit determination using GPS

An algorithm for real-time and onboard orbit determination applying the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method is developed. Aiming at a very simple and still fairly accurate orbit determination, an analysis is performed to ascertain an adequacy of modeling complexity versus accuracy. The minimum set of to-be-estimated states to reach the level of accuracy of tens of meters is found to have at least the position, velocity, and user clock offset components. The dynamical model is assessed through several tests, covering force model, numerical integration scheme and step size, and simplified variational equations. The measurement model includes only relevant effects to the order of meters. The EKF method is chosen to be the simplest real-time estimation algorithm with adequate tuning of its parameters. In the developed procedure, the obtained position and velocity errors along a day vary from 15 to 20 m and from 0.014 to 0.018 m/s, respectively, with standard deviation from 6 to 10 m and from 0.006 to 0.008 m/s, respectively, with the SA either on or off. The results, as well as analysis of the final adopted models used, are presented in this work. © 2013 Ana Paula Marins Chiaradia et al.

Validation of a reference control for an SYBR-Green fluorescence assay-based real-time PCR for detection of bovine herpesvirus 5 in experimentally exposed bovine embryos

The objective of this study was to optimize an internal control to improve SYBR-Green-based qPCR to amplify/detect the BoHV-5 US9 gene in bovine embryos produced invitro and experimentally exposed to the virus. We designed an SYBR-Green-based binding assay that is quick to perform, reliable, easily optimized and compares well with the published assay. Herein we demonstrated its general applicability to detect BoHV-5 US9 gene in bovine embryos produced invitro experimentally exposed to BoHV-5. In order to validate the assay, three different reference genes were tested; and the histone 2a gene was shown to be the most adequate for normalizing the qPCR reaction, by considering melting and standard curves ( p<0.05). On the other hand, no differences were found in the development of bovine embryos invitro whether they were exposed to BoHV-5 reference and field strains comparing to unexposed embryos. The developed qPCR assay may have important field applications as it provides an accurate BoHV-5 US9 gene detection using a proven reference gene and is considerably less expensive than the TaqMan qPCR currently employed in sanitary programs. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Allele frequency of hereditary equine regional dermal asthenia in American Quarter horses in Brazil determined by quantitative real-time PCR with high resolution melting analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Presence of infectious agents and co-infections in diarrheic dogs determined with a real-time polymerase chain reaction-based panel

Background: Infectious diarrhea can be caused by bacteria, viruses, or protozoan organisms, or a combination of these. The identification of co-infections in dogs is important to determine the prognosis and to plan strategies for their treatment and prophylaxis. Although many pathogens have been individually detected with real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), a comprehensive panel of agents that cause diarrhea in privately owned dogs has not yet been established. The objective of this study was to use a real-time PCR diarrhea panel to survey the frequencies of pathogens and co-infections in owned dogs attended in a veterinary hospital with and without diarrhea, as well the frequency in different countries. Feces samples were tested for canine distemper virus, canine coronavirus, canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2), Clostridium perfringens alpha toxin (CPA), Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., and Salmonella spp. using molecular techniques.Results: In total, 104 diarrheic and 43 control dogs that were presented consecutively at a major private veterinary hospital were included in the study. Overall, 71/104 (68.3%) dogs with diarrhea were positive for at least one pathogen: a single infection in 39/71 dogs (54.9%) and co-infections in 32/71 dogs (45.1%), including 21/32 dogs (65.6%) with dual, 5/32 (15.6%) with triple, and 6/32 (18.8%) with quadruple infections. In the control group, 13/43 (30.2%) dogs were positive, all with single infections only. The most prevalent pathogens in the diarrheic dogs were CPA (40/104 dogs, 38.5%), CPV-2 (36/104 dogs, 34.6%), and Giardia spp. (14/104 dogs, 13.5%). CPV-2 was the most prevalent pathogen in the dual co-infections, associated with CPA, Cryptosporidium spp., or Giardia spp. No statistical difference (P = 0.8374) was observed in the duration of diarrhea or the number of deaths (P = 0.5722) in the presence or absence of single or co-infections.Conclusions: Diarrheic dogs showed a higher prevalence of pathogen infections than the controls. Whereas the healthy dogs had only single infections, about half the diarrheic dogs had co-infections. Therefore, multiple pathogens should be investigated in dogs presenting with diarrhea. The effects of multiple pathogens on the disease outcomes remain unclear because the rate of death and the duration of diarrhea did not seem to be affected by these factors.

A real-time thermal field theoretical analysis of Kubo-type shear viscosity: Numerical understanding with simple examples

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Real-time monitoring of ozone in air using substrate-integrated hollow waveguide mid-infrared sensors

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Monitoring of hydrogen sulfide via substrate-integrated hollow waveguide mid-infrared sensors in real-time

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Comparative Analysis of In-Medium Spectral Functions for N(940) and N (au)(1535) in Real-Time Thermal Field Theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The detection of Cryptosporidium serpentis in snake fecal samples by real-time PCR

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diagnosis of gastric cryptosporidiosis in birds using a duplex real-time PCR assay

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of the intestinal bacterial microbiota in maize- or sorghum-fed broiler chickens using real-time PCR

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Discovery of a new antiviral protein isolated Lonomia obliqua analysed by bioinformatics and real-time approaches

This study presents a new recombinant protein that acts as a powerful antiviral (rAVLO—recombinant Antiviral protein of Lonomia obliqua). It was able to reduce the replication by 106 fold for herpes virus and by 104 fold for rubella virus. RT-PCR of viral RNA rAVLO treated infected cells also showed similar rate of inhibition in replication. The analysis of this protein by bioinformatics suggests that this protein is globular, secreted with a signal peptide and has the ability to bind to MHC class I. It was found that there are several protein binding sites with various HLA and a prevalence of α-helices in the N-terminal region (overall classified as a α/β protein type). BLAST similarity sequence search for corresponding cDNA did not reveal a similar sequence in Genbank, suggesting that it is from a novel protein family. In this study we have observed that this recombinant protein and hemolymph has a potent antiviral action. This protein was produced in a baculovirus/Sf-9 system. Therefore, these analyses suggest that this novel polypeptide is a candidate as a broad spectrum antiviral.

Elucidating the real-time Ag nanoparticle growth on alpha-Ag2WO4 during electron beam irradiation: experimental evidence and theoretical insights

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Improving DNA extraction quality by the salting-out method to prepare blood samples for real-time PCR.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)