And yet it shrinks: A novel method for correcting bias in forest tree growth estimates caused by water-induced fluctuations

Accuracy in tree woody growth estimates is important to global carbon budget estimation and climate-change science. Tree growth in permanent sampling plots (PSPs) is commonly estimated by measuring stem diameter changes, but this method is susceptible to bias resulting from water-induced reversible stem shrinkage. In the absence of bias correction, temporal variability in growth is likely to be overestimated and incorrectly attributed to fluctuations in resource availability, especially in forests with high seasonal and inter-annual variability in water. We propose and test a novel approach for estimating and correcting this bias at the community level. In a 50-ha PSP from a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India, where tape measurements have been taken every four years from 1988 to 2012, for nine trees we estimated bias due to reversible stem shrinkage as the difference between woody growth measured using tree rings and that estimated from tape. We tested if the bias estimated from these trees could be used as a proxy to correct bias in tape-based growth estimates at the PSP scale. We observed significant shrinkage-related bias in the growth estimates of the nine trees in some censuses. This bias was strongly linearly related to tape-based growth estimates at the level of the PSP, and could be used as a proxy. After bias was corrected, the temporal variance in growth rates of the PSP decreased, while the effect of exceptionally dry or wet periods was retained, indicating that at least a part of the temporal variability arose from reversible shrinkage-related bias. We also suggest that the efficacy of the bias correction could be improved by measuring the proxy on trees that belong to different size classes and census timing, but not necessarily to different species. Our approach allows for reanalysis - and possible reinterpretation of temporal trends in tree growth, above ground biomass change, or carbon fluxes in forests, and their relationships with resource availability in the context of climate change. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matrix Crack Detection in Composite Plate with Spatially Random Material Properties using Fractal Dimension

Fractal dimension based damage detection method is investigated for a composite plate with random material properties. Composite material shows spatially varying random material properties because of complex manufacturing processes. Matrix cracks are considered as damage in the composite plate. Such cracks are often seen as the initial damage mechanism in composites under fatigue loading and also occur due to low velocity impact. Static deflection of the cantilevered composite plate with uniform loading is calculated using the finite element method. Damage detection is carried out based on sliding window fractal dimension operator using the static deflection. Two dimensional homogeneous Gaussian random field is generated using Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion to represent the spatial variation of composite material property. The robustness of fractal dimension based damage detection method is demonstrated considering the composite material properties as a two dimensional random field.

Matrix crack detection in spatially random composite structures using fractal dimension

Fractal dimension based damage detection method is studied for a composite structure with random material properties. A composite plate with localized matrix crack is considered. Matrix cracks are often seen as the initial damage mechanism in composites. Fractal dimension based method is applied to the static deformation curve of the structure to detect localized damage. Static deflection of a cantilevered composite plate under uniform loading is calculated using the finite element method. Composite material shows spatially varying random material properties because of complex manufacturing processes. Spatial variation of material property is represented as a two dimensional homogeneous Gaussian random field. Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion is used to generate a random field. The robustness of fractal dimension based damage detection methods is studied considering the composite plate with spatial variation in material properties.

Belief propagation for minimum weight many-to-one matchings in the random complete graph

In a complete bipartite graph with vertex sets of cardinalities n and n', assign random weights from exponential distribution with mean 1, independently to each edge. We show that, as n -> infinity, with n' = n/alpha] for any fixed alpha > 1, the minimum weight of many-to-one matchings converges to a constant (depending on alpha). Many-to-one matching arises as an optimization step in an algorithm for genome sequencing and as a measure of distance between finite sets. We prove that a belief propagation (BP) algorithm converges asymptotically to the optimal solution. We use the objective method of Aldous to prove our results. We build on previous works on minimum weight matching and minimum weight edge cover problems to extend the objective method and to further the applicability of belief propagation to random combinatorial optimization problems.

Reduced Hornbill Abundance Associated with Low Seed Arrival and Altered Recruitment in a Hunted and Logged Tropical Forest

Logging and hunting are two key direct threats to the survival of wildlife in the tropics, and also disrupt important ecosystem processes. We investigated the impacts of these two factors on the different stages of the seed dispersal cycle, including abundance of plants and their dispersers and dispersal of seeds and recruitment, in a tropical forest in north-east India. We focused on hornbills, which are important seed dispersers in these forests, and their food tree species. We compared abundances of hornbill food tree species in a site with high logging and hunting pressures (heavily disturbed) with a site that had no logging and relatively low levels of hunting (less disturbed) to understand logging impacts on hornbill food tree abundance. We compared hornbill abundances across these two sites. We, then, compared the scatter-dispersed seed arrival of five large-seeded tree species and the recruitment of four of those species. Abundances of hornbill food trees that are preferentially targeted by logging were two times higher in the less disturbed site as compared to the heavily disturbed site while that of hornbills was 22 times higher. The arrival of scatter-dispersed seeds was seven times higher in the less disturbed site. Abundances of recruits of two tree species were significantly higher in the less disturbed site. For another species, abundances of younger recruits were significantly lower while that of older recruits were higher in the heavily disturbed site. Our findings suggest that logging reduces food plant abundance for an important frugivore-seed disperser group, while hunting diminishes disperser abundances, with an associated reduction in seed arrival and altered recruitment of animal-dispersed tree species in the disturbed site. Based on our results, we present a conceptual model depicting the relationships and pathways between vertebrate-dispersed trees, their dispersers, and the impacts of hunting and logging on these pathways.

Regeneration of Juvenile Woody Plants after Fire in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest of Southern India

Woody tree species in seasonally dry tropical forests are known to have traits that help them to recover from recurring disturbances such as fire. Two such traits are resprouting and rapid post-fire growth. We compared survival and growth rates of regenerating small-sized individuals (juveniles) of woody tree species after dry season fire (February-March) at eight adjacent pairs of burnt and unburnt transects in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India. Juveniles were monitored at 3-mo intervals between August 2009 and August 2010. High juvenile survivorship (>95%) was observed in both burnt and unburnt areas. Growth rates of juveniles, analyzed at the community level as well as for a few species individually (especially fast-growing ones), were distinctly higher in burnt areas compared to unburnt areas after a fire event, particularly during the pre-monsoon season immediately after a fire. Rapid growth by juveniles soon after a fire may be due to lowered competition from other vegetative forms such as grasses, possibly aided by the availability of resources stored belowground. Such an adaptation would allow a juvenile bank to be retained in the understory of a dry forest, from where individuals can grow to a possible fire-tolerant size during favorable conditions.

Nest site characterization of sympatric hornbills in a tropical dry forest

Hornbills, among the largest and most threatened tropical frugivores, provide important seed dispersal services. Hornbill nest site characteristics are known primarily from wet tropical forests. Nests of the Indian grey hornbill Ocyceros birostris and Oriental pied hornbill Anthracoceros albirostris were characterized in a tropical dry forest. Despite A. albirostris being twice the size of O. birostris, few of the nest cavity attributes were different. A. albirostris nests were surrounded by higher proportion of mixed forest and lower sal forest compared to O. birostris. In this landscape, the larger A. albirostris may prefer to nest in sites with more food plants compared to the smaller O. birostris.

Hydrological importance of sacred forest fragments in Central Western Ghats of India

Sacred groves are patches of forests of special spiritual significance to humans, offering also a diverse range of ecological and environmental services. We have attempted here to understand the local hydrological dynamics of a sacred forest, in terms of the benefits the village community derive, in central Western Ghats region of India. A comparative assessment has been made between two small watersheds in terms of their landscape structure (woody species composition) with soil water properties and availability of water in the respective downstream villages. The result shows that, sacred site with more primeval vegetation has close association with soil moisture in comparison to non-sacred site during dry spell of the year. The higher soil moisture ensures year long availability of water in the downstream village of the sacred site which facilitates farming of commercial crops with higher economic returns to the farmers, unlike the farmers in the other village where they face water crisis during the lean season. The study emphasizes the need for conservation endeavour on sacred groves highlighting its potential for water conservation at local and regional levels.

Identification of dominant modes in random dynamical and aeroelastic systems

Identification of dominant modes is an important step in studying linearly vibrating systems, including flow-induced vibrations. In the presence of uncertainty, when some of the system parameters and the external excitation are modeled as random quantities, this step becomes more difficult. This work is aimed at giving a systematic treatment to this end. The ability to capture the time averaged kinetic energy is chosen as the primary criterion for selection of modes. Accordingly, a methodology is proposed based on the overlap of probability density functions (pdf) of the natural and excitation frequencies, proximity of the natural frequencies of the mean or baseline system, modal participation factor, and stochastic variation of mode shapes in terms of the modes of the baseline system - termed here as statistical modal overlapping. The probabilistic descriptors of the natural frequencies and mode shapes are found by solving a random eigenvalue problem. Three distinct vibration scenarios are considered: (i) undamped arid damped free vibrations of a bladed disk assembly, (ii) forced vibration of a building, and (iii) flutter of a bridge model. Through numerical studies, it is observed that the proposed methodology gives an accurate selection of modes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Turbulent states and their transitions in mathematical models for ventricular tissue: The effects of random interstitial fibroblasts

We study the dynamical behaviors of two types of spiral-and scroll-wave turbulence states, respectively, in two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models, of human, ventricular, myocyte cells that are attached to randomly distributed interstitial fibroblasts; these turbulence states are promoted by (a) the steep slope of the action-potential-duration-restitution (APDR) plot or (b) early afterdepolarizations (EADs). Our single-cell study shows that (1) the myocyte-fibroblast (MF) coupling G(j) and (2) the number N-f of fibroblasts in an MF unit lower the steepness of the APDR slope and eliminate the EAD behaviors of myocytes; we explore the pacing dependence of such EAD suppression. In our 2D simulations, we observe that a spiral-turbulence (ST) state evolves into a state with a single, rotating spiral (RS) if either (a) G(j) is large or (b) the maximum possible number of fibroblasts per myocyte N-f(max) is large. We also observe that the minimum value of G(j), for the transition from the ST to the RS state, decreases as N-f(max) increases. We find that, for the steep-APDR-induced ST state, once the MF coupling suppresses ST, the rotation period of a spiral in the RS state increases as (1) G(j) increases, with fixed N-f(max), and (2) N-f(max) increases, with fixed G(j). We obtain the boundary between ST and RS stability regions in the N-f(max)-G(j) plane. In particular, for low values of N-f(max), the value of G(j), at the ST-RS boundary, depends on the realization of the randomly distributed fibroblasts; this dependence decreases as N-f(max) increases. Our 3D studies show a similar transition from scroll-wave turbulence to a single, rotating, scroll-wave state because of the MF coupling. We examine the experimental implications of our study and propose that the suppression (a) of the steep slope of the APDR or (b) EADs can eliminate spiral-and scroll-wave turbulence in heterogeneous cardiac tissue, which has randomly distributed fibroblasts.

Influence of Anisotropy on Pavement Responses Using Adaptive Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Modeling the spatial variability that exists in pavement systems can be conveniently represented by means of random fields; in this study, a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability, including the anisotropic nature of the pavement layer properties, is presented. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random fields into a linear-elastic finite difference analysis has been achieved through the expansion optimal linear estimation method. For the estimation of the critical pavement responses, metamodels based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) are developed to replace the computationally expensive finite-difference model. The sparse polynomial chaos expansion based on an adaptive regression-based algorithm, and enhanced by the combined use of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is used, with significant savings in computational effort. The effect of anisotropy in each layer on the pavement responses was studied separately, and an effort is made to identify the pavement layer wherein the introduction of anisotropic characteristics results in the most significant impact on the critical strains. It is observed that the anisotropy in the base layer has a significant but diverse effect on both critical strains. While the compressive strain tends to be considerably higher than that observed for the isotropic section, the tensile strains show a decrease in the mean value with the introduction of base-layer anisotropy. Furthermore, asphalt-layer anisotropy also tends to decrease the critical tensile strain while having little effect on the critical compressive strain. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Determinantal point processes in the plane from products of random matrices

We show that the density of eigenvalues for three classes of random matrix ensembles is determinantal. First we derive the density of eigenvalues of product of k independent n x n matrices with i.i.d. complex Gaussian entries with a few of matrices being inverted. In second example we calculate the same for (compatible) product of rectangular matrices with i.i.d. Gaussian entries and in last example we calculate for product of independent truncated unitary random matrices. We derive exact expressions for limiting expected empirical spectral distributions of above mentioned ensembles.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

SPEECH ENHANCEMENT USING DISCRIMINATIVE RANDOM FIELDS

Speech enhancement in stationary noise is addressed using the ideal channel selection framework. In order to estimate the binary mask, we propose to classify each time-frequency (T-F) bin of the noisy signal as speech or noise using Discriminative Random Fields (DRF). The DRF function contains two terms - an enhancement function and a smoothing term. On each T-F bin, we propose to use an enhancement function based on likelihood ratio test for speech presence, while Ising model is used as smoothing function for spectro-temporal continuity in the estimated binary mask. The effect of the smoothing function over successive iterations is found to reduce musical noise as opposed to using only enhancement function. The binary mask is inferred from the noisy signal using Iterated Conditional Modes (ICM) algorithm. Sentences from NOIZEUS corpus are evaluated from 0 dB to 15 dB Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) in 4 kinds of additive noise settings: additive white Gaussian noise, car noise, street noise and pink noise. The reconstructed speech using the proposed technique is evaluated in terms of average segmental SNR, Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ) and Mean opinion Score (MOS).

Autoregressive cascades on random networks

A network cascade model that captures many real-life correlated node failures in large networks via load redistribution is studied. The considered model is well suited for networks where physical quantities are transmitted, e.g., studying large scale outages in electrical power grids, gridlocks in road networks, and connectivity breakdown in communication networks, etc. For this model, a phase transition is established, i.e., existence of critical thresholds above or below which a small number of node failures lead to a global cascade of network failures or not. Theoretical bounds are obtained for the phase transition on the critical capacity parameter that determines the threshold above and below which cascade appears or disappears, respectively, that are shown to closely follow numerical simulation results. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.