Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Two novel numerical methods for solving the two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model

Fractional mathematical models represent a new approach to modelling complex spatial problems in which there is heterogeneity at many spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions is considered. The model consists of a coupled space fractional diffusion equation (SFDE) and an ordinary differential equation. For the SFDE, we first consider the numerical solution of the Riesz fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and compare it to the solution of a fractional in space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. We present two novel numerical methods for the two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model using the shifted Grunwald-Letnikov method and the matrix transform method, respectively. Finally, some numerical examples are given to exhibit the consistency of our computational solution methodologies. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods.

Mathematical modelling of LiFePO4 cathodes

LiFePO4 is a commercially available battery material with good theoretical discharge capacity, excellent cycle life and increased safety compared with competing Li-ion chemistries. It has been the focus of considerable experimental and theoretical scrutiny in the past decade, resulting in LiFePO4 cathodes that perform well at high discharge rates. This scrutiny has raised several questions about the behaviour of LiFePO4 material during charge and discharge. In contrast to many other battery chemistries that intercalate homogeneously, LiFePO4 can phase-separate into highly and lowly lithiated phases, with intercalation proceeding by advancing an interface between these two phases. The main objective of this thesis is to construct mathematical models of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be validated against experimental discharge curves. This is in an attempt to understand some of the multi-scale dynamics of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be difficult to determine experimentally. The first section of this thesis constructs a three-scale mathematical model of LiFePO4 cathodes that uses a simple Stefan problem (which has been used previously in the literature) to describe the assumed phase-change. LiFePO4 crystals have been observed agglomerating in cathodes to form a porous collection of crystals and this morphology motivates the use of three size-scales in the model. The multi-scale model developed validates well against experimental data and this validated model is then used to examine the role of manufacturing parameters (including the agglomerate radius) on battery performance. The remainder of the thesis is concerned with investigating phase-field models as a replacement for the aforementioned Stefan problem. Phase-field models have recently been used in LiFePO4 and are a far more accurate representation of experimentally observed crystal-scale behaviour. They are based around the Cahn-Hilliard-reaction (CHR) IBVP, a fourth-order PDE with electrochemical (flux) boundary conditions that is very stiff and possesses multiple time and space scales. Numerical solutions to the CHR IBVP can be difficult to compute and hence a least-squares based Finite Volume Method (FVM) is developed for discretising both the full CHR IBVP and the more traditional Cahn-Hilliard IBVP. Phase-field models are subject to two main physicality constraints and the numerical scheme presented performs well under these constraints. This least-squares based FVM is then used to simulate the discharge of individual crystals of LiFePO4 in two dimensions. This discharge is subject to isotropic Li+ diffusion, based on experimental evidence that suggests the normally orthotropic transport of Li+ in LiFePO4 may become more isotropic in the presence of lattice defects. Numerical investigation shows that two-dimensional Li+ transport results in crystals that phase-separate, even at very high discharge rates. This is very different from results shown in the literature, where phase-separation in LiFePO4 crystals is suppressed during discharge with orthotropic Li+ transport. Finally, the three-scale cathodic model used at the beginning of the thesis is modified to simulate modern, high-rate LiFePO4 cathodes. High-rate cathodes typically do not contain (large) agglomerates and therefore a two-scale model is developed. The Stefan problem used previously is also replaced with the phase-field models examined in earlier chapters. The results from this model are then compared with experimental data and fit poorly, though a significant parameter regime could not be investigated numerically. Many-particle effects however, are evident in the simulated discharges, which match the conclusions of recent literature. These effects result in crystals that are subject to local currents very different from the discharge rate applied to the cathode, which impacts the phase-separating behaviour of the crystals and raises questions about the validity of using cathodic-scale experimental measurements in order to determine crystal-scale behaviour.

Outcomes of an early feeding practices intervention to prevent childhood obesity

Objective Use a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate outcomes of a universal intervention to promote protective feeding practices, which commenced in infancy and aimed to prevent childhood obesity Subjects and Methods The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 (SD=1.0) months at baseline. Mothers were randomly allocated to self-directed access to usual care or to attend two 6-session interactive group education modules that provided anticipatory guidance on early feeding practices. Outcomes were assessed six months after completion of the second information module, 20 months from baseline and when the children were two years old. Maternal feeding practices were self-reported using validated questionnaires and study-developed items. Study-measured child height and weight were used to calculate BMI Z-score. Results Retention at follow-up was 78%. Mothers in the intervention group reported using responsive feeding more frequently on 6/9 subscales and 8/8 items (Ps ≤.03) and overall less ‘controlling feeding practices’ (P<.001). They also more frequently used feeding practices (3/4 items; Ps <.01) likely to enhance food acceptance. No statistically significant differences were noted in anthropometric outcomes (BMI Z-score: P=.11), nor in prevalence of overweight/obesity (control 17.9% vs. intervention 13.8%, P=.23). Conclusions Evaluation of NOURISH at child age two years found that anticipatory guidance on complementary feeding, tailored to developmental stage, increased use by first-time mothers of 'protective' feeding practices that potentially support the development of healthy eating and growth patterns in young children.

The genetics of endurance : frequency of the ACTN3 R577X variant in Ironman World Championship athletes

Objectives To investigate the frequency of the ACTN3 R577X polymorphism in elite endurance triathletes, and whether ACTN3 R577X is significantly associated with performance time. Design Cross-sectional study. Methods Saliva samples, questionnaires, and performance times were collected for 196 elite endurance athletes who participated in the 2008 Kona Ironman championship triathlon. Athletes were of predominantly North American, European, and Australian origin. A one-way analysis of variance was conducted to compare performance times between genotype groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to model the effect of questionnaire variables and genotype on performance time. Genotype and allele frequencies were compared to results from different populations using the chi-square test. Results Performance time did not significantly differ between genotype groups, and age, sex, and continent of origin were significant predictors of finishing time (age and sex: p < 5 × 10−6; continent: p = 0.003) though genotype was not. Genotype and allele frequencies obtained (RR 26.5%, RX 50.0%, XX 23.5%, R 51.5%, X 48.5%) were found to be not significantly different from Australian, Spanish, and Italian endurance athletes (p > 0.05), but were significantly different from Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Finnish endurance athletes (p < 0.01). Conclusions Genotype and allele frequencies agreed with those reported for endurance athletes of similar ethnic origin, supporting previous findings for an association between 577X allele and endurance. However, analysis of performance time suggests that ACTN3 does not alone influence endurance performance, or may have a complex effect on endurance performance due to a speed/endurance trade-off.

Proceedings of the 6th Knowledge Cities World Summit, KCWS 2013

In recent years, with the impact of global knowledge economy, a more comprehensive development approach has gained significant popularity. This new development approach, so called ‘knowledge-based urban development’, is different from its traditional predecessor. With a much more balanced focus on all of the four key development domains – economic, spatial, institutional, and socio-cultural – this contemporary approach, aims to bring economic prosperity, environmental sustainability and local institutional competence with a just socio-spatial order to our cities and regions. The ultimate goal of knowledgebased urban development is to produce a city purposefully designed to encourage the continuous production, circulation and commercialization of social and scientific knowledge – this will in turn establish a ‘knowledge city’. A city following the ‘knowledge city’ concept embarks on a strategic mission to firmly encourage and nurture locally focused innovation, science and creativity within the context of an expanding knowledge economy and society. In this regard a ‘knowledge city’ can be seen as an integrated city, which physically and institutionally combines the functions of a science and technology park with civic and residential functions and urban amenities. It also offers one of the effective paradigms for the sustainable cities of our time. This sixth edition of KCWS – The 6th Knowledge Cities World Summit 2013 – makes an important reminder that the ‘knowledge city’ concept is a key notion in the 21st Century development. Considering this notion, the Summit sheds light on the multifaceted dimensions and various scales of building a ‘knowledge city’ via ‘knowledge-based urban development’ paradigm by particularly focusing on the overall Summit theme of ‘Establishing Bridges’. At this summit, the theoretical and practical maturing of knowledge-based development paradigms are advanced through the interplay between the world’s leading academics’ theories and the practical models and strategies of practitioners’ and policy makers’ drawn from around the world. This summit proceeding is compiled in order to disseminate the knowledge generated and shared in KCWS 2013 with the wider research, governance, and practice communities the knowledge co-created in this summit. All papers of this proceeding have gone through a double-blind peer review process and been reviewed by our summit editorial review and advisory board members. We, organizers of the summit, cordially thank the members of the Summit Proceeding Editorial Review and Advisory Board for their diligent work in the review of the papers. Also we thank Prof.Dr. Ahmet Ademoğlu, Rector of İstanbul Şehir University, for providing all the support for the Summit. We hope the papers in this proceeding will inspire and make a significant contribution to the research, governance, and practice circles.

Risk compensation in construction workers' activities

Construction has been plagued with serious injuries and deaths for years. Although the technological advances have made the world safer and healthier, researchers have noted that some safety interventions, which had clear objective safety benefits, had failed to achieve the forecast savings in lives and injuries. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the construction workers show risk compensation and engage in greater risk taking when certain types of safety measures are implemented in the construction site. A case study approach was used to achieve the aim of this study. A typical construction site in Sydney was selected as the subject of the case study. Data were collected through direct observations, questionnaires and interviews. The findings confirm that workers show risk compensation behaviours in the construction environment. The risk compensation behaviours of workers varied with the level of experience and whether they have suffered from a past workplace injury. The findings of this study may offer a better understanding of workers’ behavioural patterns in construction environment and the effectiveness of safety interventions. The result of this study may provide supports for designing, implementing and evaluating safety interventions in construction site.

Voltage unbalance improvement in low voltage residential feeders with rooftop PVs using custom power devices

Voltage unbalance is a major power quality problem in low voltage residential feeders due to the random location and rating of single-phase rooftop photovoltaic cells (PV). In this paper, two different improvement methods based on the application of series (DVR) and parallel (DSTATCOM) custom power devices are investigated to improve the voltage unbalance problem in these feeders. First, based on the load flow analysis carried out in MATLAB, the effectiveness of these two custom power devices is studied vis-à-vis the voltage unbalance reduction in urban and semi-urban/rural feeders containing rooftop PVs. Their effectiveness is studied from the installation location and rating points of view. Later, a Monte Carlo based stochastic analysis is carried out to investigate their efficacy for different uncertainties of load and PV rating and location in the network. After the numerical analyses, a converter topology and control algorithm is proposed for the DSTATCOM and DVR for balancing the network voltage at their point of common coupling. A state feedback control, based on pole-shift technique, is developed to regulate the voltage in the output of the DSTATCOM and DVR converters such that the voltage balancing is achieved in the network. The dynamic feasibility of voltage unbalance and profile improvement in LV feeders, by the proposed structure and control algorithm for the DSTATCOM and DVR, is verified through detailed PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Screening for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Purpose: This is one of the first studies to report that the Achenbach internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with current comorbid depression and anxiety, rather than individual mood disorder. Introduction: The Achenbach behaviour checklists (YSR,YASR) are widely used, low cost screening tools used to assess problem behaviour. Several studies report good association between the checklists and psychiatric diagnoses; although with varying degrees of agreement. Most are cross-sectional studies involving adolescents referred to mental health services; few are in large community-based studies. This study examined the usefulness of the Achenbach internalising scales in the primary screening (both predictive and concurrent)for depression and anxiety. Methods: The sample was 2400 young adults from an Australian population-based prospective birth cohort study. The association between the empirical anxiety and depression scales were individually assessed against DSM-IV depression and anxiety diagnoses. Odds ratios and diagnostic efficiency tests report the findings. Results: Adolescents with internalising symptoms were twice (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.7 to 3.1) as likely to be diagnosed with later DSM-IV depression. YASR internalising scale predicted DSM-IV mood disorders (depression OR = 6.9, 95% CI 5.0–9.5; anxiety OR = 5.1, 95% CI 3.8–6.7) in the previous 12 months. The internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with comorbid depression and anxiety. Conclusions: Adolescence and early adulthood are key risk periods for the onset of anxiety and depression. This study found that young people with internalising behaviour problems were more likely to have comorbid depression and anxiety DSM-IV disorder.

The 3rd Knowledge Cities World Summit Proceedings

FROM KCWS 2010 Ch airs and Summit Proceeding Ed ito rs ‘Knowledge’ is a resource, which relies on the past for a better future. In the 21st century, more than ever before, cities around the world depend on the knowledge of their citizens, their institutions and their firms and enterprises. The knowledge image, the human competence and the reputation of their public and private institutions and corporations profiles a city. It attracts investment, qualified labour and professionals, as well as students and researchers. And it creates local life spaces and professional milieus, which offer the quality of life to the citizens that are seeking to cope with the challenges of modern life in a competitive world. Integrating knowledge-based development in urban strategies and policies, beyond the provision of schools and locations for higher education, has become a new ambitious arena of city politics. Coming from theory to practice, and bringing together the manifold knowledge stakeholders in a city and preparing joint visions for the knowledge city is a new challenge for city managers, urban planners and leaders of the civic society . It requires visionary power, creativity, holistic thinking, the willingness to cooperate with all groups of the local civil society, and the capability to moderate communication processes to overcome conflicts and to develop joint action for a sustainable future. This timely Melbourne 2010 – The Third Knowledge City World Summit makes an important reminder that ‘knowledge’ is the key notion in the 21st Century development. Considering this notion, the summit aims to shed light on the multi-faceted dimensions and various scales of building the ‘knowledge city’ and on ‘knowledge-based development’ paradigms. At this summit, the theoretical and practical maturing of knowledge-based development paradigms will be advanced through the interplay between the world’s leading academic’s theories and the practical models and strategies of practitioners’ and policy makers’ drawn from around the world. As chairs of The Melbourne 2010 Summit, we have compiled this summit proceeding in order to disseminate the knowledge generated and shared in Melbourne with the wider research, governance, and practice communities. The papers in the proceedings reflect the broad range of contributions to the summit. They report on recent developments in planning and managing knowledge cities and ICT infrastructure, they assess the role of knowledge institutions in regional innovation systems and of the intellectual capital of cities and regions; they describe the evolution of knowledge-based approaches to urban development in differing cultural environments; they finally bridge the discourse on the knowledge city to other urban development paradigms such as the creative city, the ubiquitous city or the compact city. The diversity of papers presented shows how different scholars from planning cultures around the world interpret the knowledge dimension in urban and regional development. All papers of this proceeding have gone through a double-blind peer review process and been reviewed by our summit editorial review and advisory board members. We cordially thank the members of the Summit Proceeding Editorial Review and Advisory Board for their diligent work in the review of the papers. We hope the papers in this proceeding will inspire and make a significant contribution to the research, governance, and practice circles.

The 4th Knowledge Cities World Summit Proceedings

FROM KCWS 2011 CHAIRS AND SUMMIT PROCEEDING EDITORS In recent years, with the impact of global knowledge economy, a more comprehensive development approach has gained significant popularity. This new development approach, so called ‘knowledgebased development’, is different from its traditional predecessor. With a much more balanced focus on all of the four key development domains – economic, enviro-urban, institutional, and sociocultural – this contemporary approach, aims to bring economic prosperity, environmental sustainability and local institutional competence with a just socio-spatial order to our cities and regions. The ultimate goal of knowledge-based development is to produce a city purposefully designed to encourage the continuous production, circulation and commercialisation of social and scientific knowledge – this will in turn establish a ‘knowledge city’. A city following the ‘knowledge city’ concept embarks on a strategic mission to firmly encourage and nurture locally focussed innovation, science and creativity within the context of an expanding knowledge economy and society. In this regard a ‘knowledge city’ can be seen as an integrated city, which physically and institutionally combines the functions of a science and technology park with civic and residential functions and urban amenities. It also offers one of the effective paradigms for the sustainable cities of our time. This fourth edition of KCWS – The 4th Knowledge Cities World Summit 2011 – makes an important reminder that the 'knowledge city' concept is a key notion in the 21st Century development. Considering this notion, the Summit sheds light on the multi-faceted dimensions and various scales of building a ‘knowledge city’ via 'knowledge-based development' paradigm by particularly focusing on the overall Summit theme of ‘Knowledge Cities for Future Generations’. At this summit, the theoretical and practical maturing of knowledge-based development paradigms are advanced through the interplay between the world’s leading academics’ theories and the practical models and strategies of practitioners’ and policy makers’ drawn from around the world. This summit proceeding is compiled in order to disseminate the knowledge generated and shared in KCWS 2011 with the wider research, governance, and practice communities the knowledge cocreated in this summit. All papers of this proceeding have gone through a double-blind peer review process and been reviewed by our summit editorial review and advisory board members. We, organisers of the summit, cordially thank the members of the Summit Proceeding Editorial Review and Advisory Board for their diligent work in the review of the papers. We hope the papers in this proceeding will inspire and make a significant contribution to the research, governance, and practice circles.

Same but different? Mobile technology adoption in China

Purpose This paper seeks to answer two research questions which are “What are key factors which influence Chinese to adopt mobile technology?” and “Do these key factors differ from factors which are identified from Western context?” Design/methodology The findings from a pilot study with 45 in-depth interviews are used to develop questionnaires and test across 800 residents from the three research cities. The data were analyzed by Structural Equation Modelling together with Multi-group Analysis. Findings Our data suggest eight important concepts, i.e. utilitarian expectation, hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance, normative influence, external influence, cost, and quality concern, are influential factors affecting users’ intentions to adopt 3G mobile technology. Differences are found between the samples in the three research cities in the effect of hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance, and normative influence on mobile technology adoption intention. Research limitations/implications: As the stability of intentions may change over time, only measuring intentions might be inadequate in predicting actual adoption behaviors. However, the focus on potential users is thought to be appropriate, given that the development of 3G is still in its infancy in China. Originality/value Previous research into Information Technology (IT) adoption among Chinese users has not paid attention to regional diversity. Some research considered China as a large single market and some was conducted in only one province or one city. Culturally, China is a heterogeneous country.

Plasma nanoscience : from nano-solids in plasmas to nano-plasmas in solids

The unique plasma-specific features and physical phenomena in the organization of nanoscale soild-state systems in a broad range of elemental composition, structure, and dimensionality are critically reviewed. These effects lead to the possibility to localize and control energy and matter at nanoscales and to produce self-organized nano-solids with highly unusual and superior properties. A unifying conceptual framework based on the control of production, transport, and self-organization of precursor species is introduced and a variety of plasma-specific non-equilibrium and kinetics-driven phenomena across the many temporal and spatial scales is explained. When the plasma is localized to micrometer and nanometer dimensions, new emergent phenomena arise. The examples range from semiconducting quantum dots and nanowires, chirality control of single-walled carbon nanotubes, ultra-fine manipulation of graphenes, nano-diamond, and organic matter to nano-plasma effects and nano-plasmas of different states of matter. © 2013 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Exploring potential factors leading to effective training : an exclusive study on commercial banks in Cambodia

Purpose A previous study found that the quality of education in Cambodia is poor compared to other developing countries. However, the working performance of commercial banks in Cambodia is high. It was speculated that effective training was the main factor underlying this contradiction. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to explore the elements of training conducted by commercial banks in Cambodia and to examine their relationship with training effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach The research focuses on six factors: training needs assessment; training program; flexibility of training; self-efficacy; social support; and transfer of knowledge. The data came in the form of questionnaires and desk research. A descriptive analytical approach is then used to describe these six factors. Findings The banking industry in Cambodia offers very effective training to its employees. It is also worth noting that more than 80 percent of employees are satisfied with the training, despite few attempts on the part of management to elicit opinions from employees on what training methods should be employed. Research limitations/implications As research studies involving Cambodia are relatively rare, it was difficult for to gather primary data. Because of this limitation and the purpose of this study, descriptive data interpretation was employed. Practical implications – Even though training can make up for poor education, it is only a short-term solution. In the long term, education needs to be enhanced to increase working performance. Originality/value This research provides a good framework for commercial banks in other developing countries to compare. A cross-cultural study is also proposed for future research.

Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.