953 resultados para quasi-likelihood
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The incidence of cerebral edema during therapy of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in children remains unacceptably high-this suggests that current treatment may not be ideal and that important risk factors for the development of cerebral edema have not been recognized. We suggest that there are two major sources for an occult generation of osmole-free water in these patients: first, fluid with a low concentration of electrolytes that was retained in the lumen of the stomach when the patient arrived in hospital; second, infusion of glucose in water at a time when this solution can be converted into water with little glucose. In a retrospective chart review of 30 patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of DKA and a blood sugar > 900 mg/dL (50 mmol/L), there were clues to suggest that some of the retained fluid in the stomach was absorbed. To minimize the likelihood of creating a dangerous degree of cerebral edema in patients with DKA, it is important to define the likely composition of fluid retained in the stomach on admission, to look for signs of absorption of some of this fluid during therapy, and to be especially vigilant once fat-derived brain fuels have disappeared, because this is the time when glucose oxidation in the brain should increase markedly, generating osmole-free water.
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The identification of early markers that predict the response to anti-tuberculosis treatment would facilitate evaluation of new drugs and improve patient management. This study aimed to determine whether selected acute phase proteins and micronutrients measured at the time of diagnosis and during the first weeks of treatment could predict treatment responses during the 2-month standard intensive phase of therapy. For this purpose, alpha 1-antitrypsin, alpha 1-acid gtycoprotein, alpha 2-macroglobutin, C-reactive protein, C3, C4, zinc, copper and selenium concentrations were measured in Brazilian patients with smear-positive tuberculosis at the time of diagnosis and 1, 3, 5 and 8 weeks after initiation of therapy. Patients were classified into fast (n = 29), intermediate (n = 18) and slow responders (n = 10) if they were smear-negative at 3, 5 or 8 weeks of treatment. alpha 1-acid gtycoprotein on enrolment and 1 week of treatment, alpha 1-antitrypsin at week 1 and C-reactive protein and C3 after 3 weeks of therapy were higher in slow responders than in fast responders. alpha 1-antitrypsin and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein may be helpful in predicting treatment response at the time of initiation of therapy, and could be used as early markers to identify patients with an increased likelihood of treatment failure. (C) 2008 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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P>Age at first calving (AFC) measures the entry of heifers into the beef cattle production system. This trait can be used as a selection criterion for earlier reproductive performance. Using data from Nelore cattle participating in the `Program for Genetic Improvement of the Nelore Breed` (PMGRN-Nelore Brazil), bi-trait analyses were performed using the restricted maximum likelihood method, based on an AFC animal model and the following traits: female body weight adjusted to 365 (BW365) and 450 (BW450) days of age, and male scrotal circumference adjusted to 365 (SC365), 450 (SC450), 550 (SC550) and 730 (SC730) days of age. The heritability estimates for AFC ranged from 0.02 +/- 0.02 to 0.04 +/- 0.02. The estimates of additive direct heritabilities (with standard error) for BW365, BW450, SC365, SC450, SC550 and SC730 were 0.36 +/- 0.07, 0.38 +/- 0.07, 0.48 +/- 0.07, 0.65 +/- 0.07, 0.64 +/- 0.07 and 0.42 +/- 0.07, respectively, and the genetic correlations with AFC were -0.38, -0.33, 0.10, -0.13, -0.13 and 0.06, respectively. In the herds studied, selection for SC365, SC450, SC550 or SC730 should not cause genetic changes in AFC. Selection based on BW365 or BW450 would favor smaller AFC breeding values. However, the low magnitude of direct heritability estimates for AFC in these farms indicates that changes in phenotypical expression depend mostly on non-genetic factors.
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The aim of the present study was to evaluate the genetic and environmental factors affecting records of longissimus muscle area (LMA) and back fat thickness (BF) obtained between the 12th and 13th ribs, and rump fat thickness (RF) between the hook and pin bones, measured by real-time ultrasound in Nelore cattle. Also, weight records of 22,778 animals born from 1998 to 2003, in ten farms across six Brazilian states were used. Carcass traits as measured by ultrasound of the live animal were recorded from 2002 to 2004 in 2590 males and females with ages varying from 450 to 599 days. Fixed models including farm, year and season of birth, sex and type of feed effects, and the covariates age of dam (AOD) and age of animal at measurement were used to study the effect of environmental factors on these traits. The genetic parameters for LMA, BF and RF were estimated with two and three-trait animal models with 120-day weights using a restricted maximum likelihood method. All environmental effects significantly affected carcass traits, with the exception of year of birth for BF and RF and AOD for LMA. The heritability estimates for LMA, BF and RF were 0.35, 0.51 and 0.39, respectively. Standard errors obtained in one-trait analyses were from 0.07 to 0.09. Genetic correlation estimates between LMA and the two traits of subcutaneous fat were low (close to zero) and 0.74 between BF and RF, indicating that the selection for LMA should not cause antagonism in the genetic improvement of subcutaneous fat measured by real-time ultrasound. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.
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Transposons of the Mutator superfamily have been widely described in plants, but only recently have metazoan organisms been shown to harbour them. In this work we describe novel Mutator superfamily transposons from the genomes of the human parasites Schistosoma mansoni and S. japonicum, which we name Curupira-1 and Curupira-2. Curupira elements do not have Terminal Inverted Repeats (TIRs) at their extremities and generate Target Site Duplications (TSDs) of 9 base pairs. Curupira-2 transposons code for a conserved transposase and SWIM zinc finger domains, while Curupira-1 elements comprise these same domains plus a WRKY zinc finger. Alignment of transcript sequences from both elements back to the genomes indicates that they are subject to splicing to produce mature transcripts. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that these transposons represent a new lineage of metazoan Mutator-like elements with characteristics that are distinct from the recently described Phantom elements. Description of these novel schistosome transposons provides new insights in the evolution of transposable elements in schistosomes.
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Objectives: To evaluate whether maternal HIV disease severity during pregnancy is associated with an increased likelihood of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in HIV-exposed, uninfected infants. Methods: HIV-exposed, uninfected, singleton, term infants enrolled in the NISDI Perinatal Study, with birth weight >2500 g were followed from birth until 6 months of age. LRTI diagnoses, hospitalizations, and associated factors were assessed. Results: Of 547 infants, 103 (18.8%) experienced 116 episodes of LRTI (incidence = 0.84 LRTIs/100 child-weeks). Most (81%) episodes were bronchiolitis. Forty-nine (9.0%) infants were hospitalized at least once with an LRTI. There were 53 hospitalizations (45.7%) for 116 LRTI episodes. None of these infants were breastfed. The odds of LRTI in infants whose mothers had CD4% <14 at enrollment were 4.4 times those of infants whose mothers had CD4% >= 29 (p = 0.003). The odds of LRTI in infants with a CD4+ count (cells/ mm(3)) <750 at hospital discharge were 16.0 times those of infants with CD4+ >= 750 (p = 0.002). Maternal CD4+ decline and infant hemoglobin at the 6-12 week visit were associated with infant LRTIs after 6-12 weeks and before 6 months of age. Conclusions: Acute bronchiolitis is common and frequently severe among HIV-exposed, uninfected infants aged 6 months or less. Lower maternal and infant CD4+ values were associated with a higher risk of infant LRTIs. Further understanding of the immunological mechanisms of severe LRTIs is needed. (C) 2010 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.
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Although dogs are considered to be the principal transmitter of rabies in Brazil, dog rabies had never been recorded in South America before European colonization. In order to investigate the evolutionary history of dog rabies virus (RABV) in Brazil, we performed a phylogenetic analysis of carnivore RABV isolates from around the world and estimated the divergence times for dog RABV in Brazil. Our estimate for the time of introduction of dog RABV into Brazil was the late-19th to early-20th century, which was later than the colonization period but corresponded to a period of increased immigration from Europe to Brazil. In addition, dog RABVs appeared to have spread to indigenous animals in Brazil during the latter half of the 20th century, when the development and urbanization of Brazil occurred. These results suggest that the movement of rabid dogs, along with human activities since the 19th century, promoted the introduction and expansion of dog RABV in Brazil.
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In the beginning of the 20th century, a new canine disease was reported in Brazil under the name ""nambiuvu"", whose etiological agent was called Rangelia vitalii, a distinct piroplasm that was shown to parasitize not only erythrocytes, but also leucocytes and endothelial cells. In this new century, more publications on R. vitalii were reported from Brazil, including an extensive study on its ultrastructural analysis, in addition to clinical, pathological, and epidemiological data on nambiuvu. However, a molecular analysis of R. vitalii has not been performed to date. In the present study, we performed molecular phylogenetic analyses of R. vitalii based on fragments of the genes 18S rRNA and the heat shock protein 70 (hsp70), amplified by PCR performed on blood samples derived from five clinical cases of dogs presumably infected with R. vitalii in southern Brazil. In addition, we examined Giemsa-stained thin blood smears from these same dogs. DNA sequences (604-bp) of the 18S rRNA gene obtained from the five dogs were identical to each other, and by Blast analysis, this sequence shared the highest degree of sequence identity (95%) with Babesia sp. China-BQ1. DNA sequences (1056-bp) of the hsp70 gene obtained from the five dogs were identical to each other, and by Blast analysis, this sequence shared the highest degree of sequence identity (87%) with Babesia bigemina. Phylogenetic analyses inferred from either of the two genes resulted in the newly genotype being placed in the Babesia spp.sensu stricto clade with very high bootstrap support (95-100%) in three analyses (Neighbor-Joining, Maximum parsimony, and Maximum likelihood). Giemsa-stained thin blood smears from the dogs were shown to contain piroplasm organisms within erythrocytes, monocytes and neutrophils (individual forms), and schizont-like forms within neutrophils, in accordance with literature reports of R. vitalii. Based on these results, we conclude that R. vitalii, the etiological agent of ""nambiuvu"" in southern Brazil, is a valid species of piroplasm. Further studies are required to evaluate the validity of the genus Rangelia. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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P>Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the possible associations between isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD) and periodontal attachment loss (PAL) in adults affected by congenital IGHD. Materials and methods Forty-five previously identified IGHD subjects were eligible for this study. The final study sample comprised 32 cases (gender:20M/12F; age:44.8 +/- 17.5) matched for age, gender, diabetes, smoking status and income to 32 controls (non-IGHD subjects). Participants were submitted to a full-mouth clinical examination of six sites per tooth and were interviewed using a structured, written questionnaire. Periodontitis was defined as proximal PAL >= 5 mm affecting >= 30% of teeth. Results No significant differences were observed in the percentage of sites with visible plaque between IGHD and non-IGHD subjects (59.4% versus 46.9%, p=0.32). IGHD subjects had significant less supragingival calculus (31.3% versus 59.4%, p=0.02) and more bleeding on probing (71.9% versus 18.8%, p < 0.01) than controls. PAL >= 5 mm was significantly more prevalent (100% versus 71.9%, p < 0.01) and affected more teeth (30.5% versus 6.7%, p < 0.01) in cases than in controls. After adjusting for supragingival calculus, IGHD cases had a higher likelihood of having periodontitis than controls (OR=17.4-17.8, 95% CI=2.3-134.9, p=0.004-0.005). Conclusion Congenital IGHD subjects have a greater chance of having PAL.
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After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.
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Objectives. To evaluate the diagnostic value of intraoral palpation at the lateral pterygoid (LP) area as part of the physical examination to detect myofascial pain, according to modified research diagnostic criteria for temporomandibular disorders. Study design. Fouty-four women composed the myofascial pain group, and 33 symptom-free age-matched were the control group. One examiner calibrated and blinded to group distribution performed 2 intraoral bilateral palpations of the lateral pterygoid. Results. The LP area palpation showed sensitivity and specificity values of 79.55% and 77.27%, respectively, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of 3.50 and 0.26, respectively. Conclusions. Palpation at the LP area did not reach acceptable values of specificity, and care must be taken when judging positive response to this procedure.
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A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the analgesic effect of Low Intensity Laser Therapy (LILT) and its influence on masticatory efficiency in patients with temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD). This study was performed using a random, placebo-controlled, and double-blind research design. Fourteen patients were selected and divided into two groups (active and placebo). Infrared laser (780 nm, 70 mw, 60s, 105J/cm(2)) was applied precisely and continuously into five points of the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) area: lateral point (LP), superior point (SP), anterior point (AP), posterior point (PP), and posterior-inferior point (PIP) of the condylar position. This was performed twice per week, for a total of eight sessions, To ensure a double-blind study, two identical probes supplied by the manufacturer were used: one for the active laser and one for the inactive placebo laser. They were marked with different letters (A and B) by a clinician who did not perform the applications. A Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and a colorimetric capsule method were employed. Data were obtained three times: before treatment (Ev1), shortly after the eighth session (Ev2), and 30 days after the first application (Ev3). Statistical tests revealed significant differences at one percent (1%) likelihood, which implies that superiority of the active group offered considerable TMJ pain improvement. Both groups presented similar masticatory behavior, and no statistical differences were found. With regard to the evaluation session, Ev2 presented the lowest symptoms and highest masticatory efficiency throughout therapy. Therefore, low intensity laser application is effective in reducing TMD symptoms, and has influence over masticatory efficiency [Ev2 (0.2423) and Ev3 (0.2043), observed in the interaction Evaluations x Probes for effective dosage].