Fatores preditivos do sucesso da inseminação intrauterina: A morfologia espermática de acordo com o novo manual de laboratório da Organização Mundial de Saúde

Objective: The aim of our study was to assess the likelihood of IUI success as a function of the previously described predictive factors, including sperm morphology according to the new reference values defined by WHO. Material and Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 300 couples which underwent IUI. Regression analyses were used to correlate maternal age, number of preovulatory follicles on the day of hCG administration, number of inseminated motile sperm, and normal sperm morphology with clinical pregnancy. Results are expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% of confidence intervals (CI). Results: Women older than 35 years showed a lower pregnancy rate (6.5% vs 18.2%, p=0.017). Logistic regression models confirmed the lower chance of pregnancy occurrence for older women (OR: 0.39; CI: 0.16-0.96; p=0.040). The presence of two or more preovulatory follicles on the day of hCG administration resulted in higher pregnancy rate when compared to cases in which only one preovulatory follicle was present (18.6% vs 8.2%, p=0.011). The regression model showed a more than two fold increase on probability of pregnancy when two or more preovulatory follicles were detected (OR: 2.58; CI: 1.22-5.46, p=0.013). The number of inseminated motile sperm positively influenced pregnancy occurrence (OR: 1.47; CI: 0.88-3.14, p=0.027). Similar pregnancy rates were observed when semen samples were classified as having normal or abnormal morphology (10.6% vs 10.2%, p=0.936). Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that sperm morphological normalcy, according to the new reference value, has no predictive value on IUI outcomes. © Todos os direitos reservados a SBRA - Sociedade Brasileira de Reprodução Assistida.

Specialist tool for monitoring the measurement degradation process of induction active energy meters

This paper presents a methodology and a specialist tool for failure probability analysis of induction type watt-hour meters, considering the main variables related to their measurement degradation processes. The database of the metering park of a distribution company, named Elektro Electricity and Services Co., was used for determining the most relevant variables and to feed the data in the software. The modeling developed to calculate the watt-hour meters probability of failure was implemented in a tool through a user friendly platform, written in Delphi language. Among the main features of this tool are: analysis of probability of failure by risk range; geographical localization of the meters in the metering park, and automatic sampling of induction type watt-hour meters, based on a risk classification expert system, in order to obtain information to aid the management of these meters. The main goals of the specialist tool are following and managing the measurement degradation, maintenance and replacement processes for induction watt-hour meters. © 2011 IEEE.

Wireless mesh networks planning based on parameters of quality of service

The use of QoS parameters to evaluate the quality of service in a mesh network is essential mainly when providing multimedia services. This paper proposes an algorithm for planning wireless mesh networks in order to satisfy some QoS parameters, given a set of test points (TPs) and potential access points (APs). Examples of QoS parameters include: probability of packet loss and mean delay in responding to a request. The proposed algorithm uses a Mathematical Programming model to determine an adequate topology for the network and Monte Carlo simulation to verify whether the QoS parameters are being satisfied. The results obtained show that the proposed algorithm is able to find satisfactory solutions.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Long-term outcome of patients followed by nephrologists after an acute tubular necrosis episode

Aims of our study were to describe the long-term survival in patients surviving an acute tubular necrosis (ATN) episode and determine factors associated with late mortality. We performed a prospective cohort study that evaluated the long-term outcome of 212 patients surviving an ATN episode. Mortality at the end of followup was 24.5%, and the probability of these patients being alive 5 years after discharge was 55%. During the followup, 4.7% of patients needed chronic dialysis. Univariate analysis showed that previous CKD (P = 0.0079), cardiovascular disease (P = 0.019), age greater than 60 years (P < 0.0001), and higher SCr baseline (P = 0.001), after 12 months (P = 0.0015) and 36 months (P = 0.004), were predictors of long-term mortality. In multivariate analysis, older age (HR = 6.4, CI 95% = 1.2-34.5, P = 0.02) and higher SCr after 12 months (HR = 2.1, 95% CI 95% = 1.14-4.1, P = 0.017) were identified as risk factors associated with late mortality. In conclusion, 55% of patients surviving an ATN episode were still alive, and less than 5% required chronic dialysis 60 months later; older age and increased Scr after 12 months were identified as risk factors associated with late death. © 2012 G. A. Brito et al.

Impacts of enemy-mediated effects and the additivity of interactions in an insect trophic system

In this study, we used data from both experiments and mathematical simulations to analyze the consequences of the interacting effects of intraguild predation (IGP), cannibalism and parasitism occurring in isolation and simultaneously in trophic interactions involving two blowfly species under shared parasitism. We conducted experiments to determine the short-term response of two blowfly species to these interactions with respect to their persistence. A mathematical model was employed to extend the results obtained from these experiments to the long-term consequences of these interactions for the persistence of the blowfly species. Our experimental results revealed that IGP attenuated the strength of the effects of cannibalism and parasitism between blowfly host species, increasing the probability of persistence of both populations. The simulations obtained from the mathematical model indicated that IGP is a key interaction for the long-term dynamics of this system. The presence of different species interacting in a tri-trophic system relaxed the severity of the effects of a particular interaction between two species, changing species abundances and promoting persistence through time. This pattern was related to indirect interactions with a third species, the parasitoid species included in this study. © 2012 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan.

The financial protection impact of the public health system and private insurance in Brazil

Includes bibliography

Effect of microthread presence and restoration design (screw versus cemented) in dental implant reliability and failure modes

Objectives: This study evaluated the reliability and failure modes of implants with a microthreaded or smooth design at the crestal region, restored with screwed or cemented crowns. The postulated null hypothesis was that the presence of microthreads in the implant cervical region would not result in different reliability and strength to failure than smooth design, regardless of fixation method, when subjected to step-stress accelerated life-testing (SSALT) in water. Materials and methods: Eighty four dental implants (3.3 × 10 mm) were divided into four groups (n = 21) according to implant macrogeometric design at the crestal region and crown fixation method: Microthreads Screwed (MS); Smooth Screwed (SS); Microthreads Cemented (MC), and Smooth Cemented (SC). The abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary central incisor metallic crowns were cemented (MC, SC) or screwed (MS, SS) and subjected to SSALT in water. The probability of failure versus cycles (90% two-sided confidence intervals) was calculated and plotted using a power law relationship for damage accumulation. Reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 150 N (90% 2-sided confidence intervals) was calculated. Differences between final failure loads during fatigue for each group were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis along with Benferroni's post hoc tests. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The Beta (β) value (confidence interval range) derived from use level probability Weibull calculation of 1.30 (0.76-2.22), 1.17 (0.70-1.96), 1.12 (0.71-1.76), and 0.52 (0.30-0.89) for groups MC, SC, MS, and SS respectively, indicated that fatigue was an accelerating factor for all groups, except for SS. The calculated reliability was higher for SC (99%) compared to MC (87%). No difference was observed between screwed restorations (MS - 29%, SS - 43%). Failure involved abutment screw fracture for all groups. The cemented groups (MC, SC) presented more abutment and implant fractures. Significantly higher load to fracture values were observed for SC and MC relative to MS and SS (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Since reliability and strength to failure was higher for SC than for MC, our postulated null hypothesis was rejected. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Dendrobranchiata, Penaeidae) in south-eastern Brazil

The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic matter content and sediment grain size were measured at each site. Specimens were quantified and sexed, their carapace length measured and their gonads were classified according to the stage of maturation. A von Bertalanffy model was used to estimate the individual growth, and longevity was calculated using its inverted formula. In total, 6 470 individuals were examined and the number of males and females differed significantly in favour of females. During some periods, the segregation could be related to the reproductive period. Reproductive females were captured throughout the sampled period, and there were biannual peaks that were followed by peaks of juveniles. Carapace growth was less for males than for females, which is likely related to oocyte production and the higher fecundity of the females. The higher probability of female capture can be related to their longer foraging to sustain the enhanced food requirement during the ovarian maturation period. © 2013 Copyright NISC (Pty) Ltd.

Demographic bottlenecks in tropical plant regeneration: A comparative analysis of causal influences

Mortality factors that act sequentially through the demographic transitions from seed to sapling may have critical effects on recruitment success. Understanding how habitat heterogeneity influences the causal factors that limit propagule establishment in natural populations is central to assess these demographic bottlenecks and their consequences. Bamboos often influence forest structure and dynamics and are a major factor in generating landscape complexity and habitat heterogeneity in tropical forests. To understand how patch heterogeneity influences plant recruitment we studied critical establishment stages during early recruitment of Euterpe edulis, Sloanea guianensis and Virola bicuhyba in bamboo and non-bamboo stands in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We combined observational studies of seed rain and seedling emergence with seed addition experiments to evaluate the transition probabilities among regeneration stages within bamboo and non-bamboo stands. The relative importance of each mortality factor was evaluated by determining how the loss of propagules affected stage-specific recruitment success. Our results revealed that the seed addition treatment significantly increased seedling survivorship for all three species. E. edulis seedling survival probability increased in the addition treatment in the two stand types. However, for S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba this effect depended strongly on artificially protecting the seeds, as both species experienced increased seed and seedling losses due to post-dispersal seed predators and herbivores. Propagules of all three species had a greater probability of reaching subsequent recruitment stages when protected. The recruitment of large-seeded V. bicuhyba and E. edulis appears to be much more limited by post-dispersal factors than by dispersal limitation, whereas the small-seeded S. guianensis showed an even stronger effect of post-dispersal factors causing recruitment collapse in some situations. We demonstrated that E. edulis, S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba are especially susceptible to predation during early compared with later establishment stages and this early stage mortality can be more crucial than stand differences as determinants of successful regeneration. Among-species differences in the relative importance of dispersal vs. establishment limitation are mediated by variability in species responses to patch heterogeneity. Thus, bamboo effects on the early recruitment of non-bamboo species are patchy and species-specific, with successional bamboo patches exerting a far-reaching influence on the heterogeneity of plant species composition and abundance. © 2012 Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.

Frequency of estrus in santa inês, texel and ile de france ewes in the northwest of Paraná state, Brazil

The incidence of estrus in nulliparous Santa Inês (n = 16), Texel (n = 16) and Ile de France (n = 15) ewes fed two levels of crude protein (CP, 12 or 16%) was monitored from July 2005 to December 2006, and seasonality in the Santa Inês breed in the south of Brazil was characterized. The solar radiation data were recorded daily, and samples of blood were collected biweekly for determination of the plasma concentration of progesterone in Santa Inês lambs at, on average, 11±1 months of age. The female Santa Inês lambs, in the experimental period, stayed among teaser rams with a powdered-dye-ink mixture placed on their chest to mark the females that accepted to be mounted. Santa Inês ewes did not manifest estrus in the firstfortnightofNovemberandinDecember2005,norinthelastfortnightofDecember2006.Estrusactivitywasnotobservedon any of the three breeds in October 2006. Breeds differed at the level of 12% CP. Santa Inês and Ile de France females did not differ as for the probability estrus manifestation and both presented higher probabilities then Texel. When the effect of 12 or 16% CP on each breed was evaluated separately, it was verifiedthatlevelsof12or16%ofcrudeproteindidnotchangethe probability of estrus manifestation in any of the studied breeds. The concentration of plasma progesterone inSanta Inês ewes during the spring of 2005 and 2006 indicated that there is difference between 12% CP (0.68±1.32 ng/mL) and 16% CP (1.28±1.99 ng/mL) and between the years 2005 (0.39±0.78 ng/mL) and 2006 (1.47±2.08 ng/mL), demonstrating the anestrous seasonality of Santa Inês in South Brazil. © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Zootecnia.

Desenvolvimento sexual da prole de ratas submetidas à restrição proteica em diferentes períodos da prenhez e lactação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Valor econômico e impacto da seleção para precocidade reprodutiva de fêmeas na raça Nelore

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)