Evaluation of rapid tests for human immunodeficiency virus as a tool to detect recent seroconversion

The identification of recent HIV infection is important for epidemiological studies and to monitor the epidemic. The objective of this study was to evaluate two rapid tests that are easily available to the Brazilian scientific community for using as markers of recent HIV infection. The Rapid Test - HIV-1/2 Bio-Manguinhos (Bio-Manguinhos/Fiocruz, Brazil) and the Rapid Check HIV 1&2 (NDI-UFES, Center for Infectious Diseases, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo) were tested, using 489 samples with HIV positive serology, from blood donors, previously classified as recent or long-term infection by serological testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) or LS-HIV Vitros assay methods. The samples were diluted prior to testing (1:50 and 1:100 for the Rapid Test - HIV-1/2 Bio-Manguinhos, and 1:500 and 1:600 for the Rapid Check HIV 1&2). Negative samples were considered recent infection, whereas those showing any color intensity were associated with long-term infection. The best dilutions were 1:100 for HIV-1/2 Bio-Manguinhos test (Kappa = 0.840; overall agreement = 0.93), and 1:500 for the Rapid Check HIV 1&2 (Kappa = 0.867; overall agreement = 0.94). The results suggest that both rapid tests can be used to detect recent seroconversion. (C) 2012 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Swelling tests on material from the Guabirotuba Formation, Parana, Brazil, with suction control

This paper presents the swelling behaviour of clayey materials under controlled suction imposed both by a Richards chamber and by controlling the relative humidity with concentrated saline solutions. Soil-water characteristic curves (matrix and total) were determined by the filter paper method. The materials under study belong to the Guabirotuba Formation, of Pleistocene age, in the Curitiba Basin in the state of Parana, southern Brazil. Materials under several stages of suction of 5000-40 000 kPa were subjected to swelling tests in an oedometer press. The results indicated that the greater the suction the higher the swelling pressure. However, when swelling tests were carried out with suction variation controlled by relative humidity, in which the increase in moisture was very slow, the samples showed no swelling.

Bagging k-dependence probabilistic networks: An alternative powerful fraud detection tool

Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the efficiencies of helical anchor plates in sand by centrifuge model tests

The uplift capacity of helical anchors normally increases with the number of helical plates. The rate of capacity gain is variable, considering that the disturbance caused by the anchor installation is generally more pronounced in the soil mass above the upper plates than above the lower plates, because the upper soil layers are penetrated more times. The present investigation examines the effect of the number of helices on the performance of helical anchors in sand, based on the results of centrifuge model tests. Uplift loading tests were performed on 12 different types of piles installed in two containers of dry sand prepared with different densities. The measured fractions of the uplift capacity related to each individual helical plate of multi-helix anchors were compared with the fractions predicted by the individual bearing method. The results of this investigation indicate that in double- and triple-helix anchors, the contributions of the second and third plate to the total anchor uplift capacity decreased with the increase of sand relative density and plate diameter. In addition, these experiments demonstrated that the variation of the anchor load-displacement behavior with the number of helices also depends on these parameters.

Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decreasing the number of false positives in sequence classification

Abstract Background A large number of probabilistic models used in sequence analysis assign non-zero probability values to most input sequences. To decide when a given probability is sufficient the most common way is bayesian binary classification, where the probability of the model characterizing the sequence family of interest is compared to that of an alternative probability model. We can use as alternative model a null model. This is the scoring technique used by sequence analysis tools such as HMMER, SAM and INFERNAL. The most prevalent null models are position-independent residue distributions that include: the uniform distribution, genomic distribution, family-specific distribution and the target sequence distribution. This paper presents a study to evaluate the impact of the choice of a null model in the final result of classifications. In particular, we are interested in minimizing the number of false predictions in a classification. This is a crucial issue to reduce costs of biological validation. Results For all the tests, the target null model presented the lowest number of false positives, when using random sequences as a test. The study was performed in DNA sequences using GC content as the measure of content bias, but the results should be valid also for protein sequences. To broaden the application of the results, the study was performed using randomly generated sequences. Previous studies were performed on aminoacid sequences, using only one probabilistic model (HMM) and on a specific benchmark, and lack more general conclusions about the performance of null models. Finally, a benchmark test with P. falciparum confirmed these results. Conclusions Of the evaluated models the best suited for classification are the uniform model and the target model. However, the use of the uniform model presents a GC bias that can cause more false positives for candidate sequences with extreme compositional bias, a characteristic not described in previous studies. In these cases the target model is more dependable for biological validation due to its higher specificity.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Discrepancies and consequences of indirect hemagglutination, indirect immunofluorescence and Elisa tests for the diagnosis of Chagas disease

Using the indirect hemagglutination (IH), indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests for the diagnosis of Chagas disease, 4000 serum samples were examined. This study was conducted with different purposes: clinical interest, research support and parasitological monitoring of those patients with Chagas disease who were treated with heart transplantations. The tests occurred without patient selection and in accordance with the medical requests. The results showed discrepancies and brought about several questions, considering the different results that all three methods showed when considered together. What was found brought about concerns and we suggest the adoption of different measures, aiming to avoid these mismatches in the context of this disease.

Cytotoxicity tests for nanostructured chitosan/PEO membranes using the agar diffusion method

Electrospinning is used to produce fibers in the nanometer range by stretching a polymeric jet using electric fields of high magnitude. Chitosan is an abundant natural polymer that can be used to obtain biocompatible nanostructured membranes. The objectives of this work were to obtain nanostructured membranes based on blends of chitosan and polyoxyethylene (PEO), and evaluate their thermal and morphological properties, as well as their in vitro biocompatibility by agar diffusion cytotoxicity tests for three different cell lines. A nanostructured fibrous membrane with fiber diameters in the order of 200 nm was obtained, which presented a rough surface and thickness ranging from one to two millimeters. The results of the cytotoxicity tests evidenced that the chitosan/PEO membranes are non-toxic to the cells studied in this work. Further, the electrospinning technique was effective in obtaining nanostructured chitosan/PEO membranes, which showed biocompatibility according to in vitro preliminary tests using the cell lines.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.

Water quality assessment in piracicamirim creek upstream and downstream a sugar and ethanol industry through toxicity tests with cladocerans

An environmental impact study was conducted to determine the Piracicamirim's creek water quality in order to assess the influence of effluents from a sugar industry in this water body. For this, toxicity tests were performed with a water sample upstream and downstream the industry using the microcrustaceans Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii as test organisms, as well as physical and chemical analysis of water. Results showed that physical and chemical parameters did not change during the sampling period, except for the dissolved oxygen. No toxicity was observed for D. magna and reproduction of C. dubia and C. silvestrii in both sampling points. Thus, the industry was not negatively impacting the quality of this water body.

Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provade a very Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that interferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is construtive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynominal-time algorithm for SQPn. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Link prediction using a probabilistic description logic

Due to the growing interest in social networks, link prediction has received significant attention. Link prediction is mostly based on graph-based features, with some recent approaches focusing on domain semantics. We propose algorithms for link prediction that use a probabilistic ontology to enhance the analysis of the domain and the unavoidable uncertainty in the task (the ontology is specified in the probabilistic description logic crALC). The scalability of the approach is investigated, through a combination of semantic assumptions and graph-based features. We evaluate empirically our proposal, and compare it with standard solutions in the literature.