Potencial de la producción de bioelectricidad de las Comarcas Agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid en base a centeno y triticale

En el presente trabajo se estudia la producción potencial de biomasa procedente de los cultivos de centeno y triticale en las seis comarcas agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid (CM) y la posibilidad de su aplicación a la producción de bioelectricidad en cada una de ellas. En primer lugar se realiza un estudio bibliográfico de la situación actual de la bioelectricidad. Uno de los principales datos a tener en cuenta es que en el PER 2011- 2020 se estima que el total de potencia eléctrica instalada a partir de biomasa en España en el año 2020 sea de 1.350 MW, unas dos veces y media la existente a finales de 2010. Además, se comenta el estado de la incentivación del uso de biomasa de cultivos energéticos para producción de electricidad, la cual se regula actualmente según el Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, de 12 de Julio, por el que se adoptaron medidas urgentes para garantizar la estabilidad financiera del sistema eléctrico, y se consideran los criterios de sostenibilidad en el uso de biocombustibles sólidos. Se realiza una caracterización de las seis comarcas agrarias que forman la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid: Área Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya- Somosierra, Sur-Occidental y Vegas, la cual consta de dos partes: una descripción de la climatología y otra de la distribución de la superficie dedicada a barbecho y cultivos herbáceos. Se hace una recopilación bibliográfica de los modelos de simulación más representativos de crecimiento de los cultivos (CERES y Cereal YES), así como de ensayos realizados con los cultivos de centeno y triticale para la producción de biomasa y de estudios efectuados mediante herramientas GIS y técnicas de análisis multicriterio para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad y el estudio de la logística de la biomasa. Se propone un modelo de simulación de la productividad de biomasa de centeno y de triticale para la CM, que resulta de la combinación de un modelo de producción de grano en base a datos climatológicos y a la relación biomasa/grano media de ambos cultivos obtenida en una experiencia previa. Los modelos obtenidos responden a las siguientes ecuaciones (siendo TN = temperatura media normalizada a 9,9 ºC y PN = precipitación acumulada normalizada a 496,7 mm): - Producción biomasa centeno (t m.s./ha) = 2,785 * [1,078 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,3256] - Producción biomasa triticale (t m.s./ha) = 2,595 * [2,4495 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,6103] Posteriormente, aplicando los modelos desarrollados, se cuantifica el potencial de producción de biomasa de centeno y triticale en las distintas comarcas agrarias de la CM en cada uno de los escenarios establecidos, que se consideran según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%). Las producciones potenciales de biomasa, que se podrían alcanzar en la CM utilizando el 100% de la superficie de barbecho de secano, en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale, se estimaron en 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 y 1.886,40 t anuales para las comarcas de Campiña - Vegas, Sur - Occidental - Área Metropolitana - Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama, respectivamente. Se realiza un análisis multicriterio basado en la programación de compromiso para definir las comarcas agrarias con mejores características para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad en base a los criterios de potencial de biomasa, infraestructura eléctrica, red de carreteras, espacios protegidos y superficie de núcleos urbanos. Al efectuar el análisis multicriterio, se obtiene la siguiente ordenación jerárquica en base a los criterios establecidos: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Área Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama. Mediante la utilización de técnicas GIS se estudia la localización más conveniente de una central de bioelectricidad de 2,2 MW en cada una de las comarcas agrarias y según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%), siempre que exista potencial suficiente. Para el caso de la biomasa de centeno y de triticale en base seca se considera un PCI de 3500 kcal/kg, por lo que se necesitarán como mínimo 17.298,28 toneladas para satisfacer las necesidades de cada una de las centrales de 2,2 MW. Se analiza el potencial máximo de bioelectricidad en cada una de las comarcas agrarias en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale como productores de biomasa. Según se considere el 25% o el 100% del barbecho de secano para producción de biomasa, la potencia máxima de bioelectricidad que se podría instalar en cada una de las comarcas agrarias variaría entre 5,4 y 21,58 MW en la comarca Campiña, entre 4,76 y 19,05 MW en la comarca Vegas, entre 4,46 y 17,83 MW en la comarca Sur Occidental, entre 3,23 y 12,92 MW en la comarca Área Metropolitana, entre 0,86 y 3,43 MW en la comarca Lozoya Somosierra y entre 0,06 y 0,24 MW en la comarca Guadarrama. La potencia total que se podría instalar en la CM a partir de la biomasa de centeno y triticale podría variar entre 18,76 y 75,06 MW según que se utilice el 25% o el 100% de las tierras de barbecho de secano para su cultivo. ABSTRACT In this work is studied the potential biomass production from rye and triticale crops in the six Madrid Community (MC) agricultural regions and the possibility of its application to the bioelectricity production in each of them. First is performed a bibliographical study of the current situation of bioelectricity. One of the main elements to be considered is that in the PER 2011-2020 is estimated that the total installed electric power from biomass in Spain in 2020 was 1.350 MW, about two and a half times as at end 2010. Also is discussed the status of enhancing the use of biomass energy crops for electricity production, which is currently regulated according to the Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, of July 12, by which urgent measures were adopted to ensure financial stability of the electrical system, and there are considered the sustainability criteria in the use of solid biofuels. A characterization of the six Madrid Community agricultural regions is carried out: Area Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya-Somosierra, Sur-Occidental and Vegas, which consists of two parts: a description of the climatology and another about the distribution of the area under fallow and arable crops. It makes a bibliographic compilation of the most representative crop growth simulation models (CERES and Cereal YES), as well as trials carried out with rye and triticale crops for biomass production and studies conducted by GIS tools and techniques multicriteria analysis for the location of bioelectricity centrals and the study of the logistics of biomass. Is proposed a biomass productivity simulation model for rye and triticale for MC that results from the combination of grain production model based on climatological data and the average relative biomass/grain of both crops obtained in a prior experience. The models obtained correspond to the following equations (where TN = normalized average temperature and PN = normalized accumulated precipitation): - Production rye biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2.785 * [1.078 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.3256] - Production triticale biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2,595 * [2.4495 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.6103] Subsequently, applying the developed models, the biomass potential of the MC agricultural regions is quantified in each of the scenarios established, which are considered as the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50%, 75 % and 100%). The potential biomass production that can be achieved within the MC using 100% of the rainfed fallow area based on rye and triticale crops, were estimated at 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 and 1.886,40 t annual for the regions of Campiña, Vegas, Sur Occidental, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya- Somosierra and Guadarrama, respectively. A multicriteria analysis is performed, based on compromise programming to define the agricultural regions with better features for the location of bioelectricity centrals, on the basis of biomass potential, electrical infrastructure, road network, protected areas and urban area criteria. Upon multicriteria analysis, is obtained the following hierarchical order based on criteria: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra and Guadarrama. Likewise, through the use of GIS techniques, the most suitable location for a 2,2 MW bioelectricity plant is studied in each of the agricultural regions and according to the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50% , 75% and 100%), if there is sufficient potential. In the case of biomass rye and triticale dry basis is considered a PCI of 3500 kcal/kg, so it will take at least 17,298.28 t to satisfy the needs of each plant. Is analyzed the maximum bioelectricity potential on each of the agricultural regions on the basis of the rye and triticale crops as biomass producers. As deemed 25% or 100% dry fallow for biomass, the maximum bioelectricity potential varies between 5,4 and 21,58 MW in the Campiña region, between 4,76 and 19,05 MW in the Vegas region, between 4,46 and 17,83 MW in the Sur Occidental region, between 3,23 and 12,92 MW in the Area Metropolitana region, between 0,86 and 3,43 MW in the Lozoya-Somosierra region and between 0,06 and 0,24 MW in the Guadarrama region. The total power that could be installed in the CM from rye and triticale biomass could vary between 18.76 and 75.06 MW if is used the 25% or 100% of fallow land for rainfed crop.

El programa ERHIN y la gestión de embalses en áreas con alta precipitación nival = The ERHIN programme and reservoir management in areas of high nival precipitation

El programa de Evaluación Recursos Hídricos procedentes de la Innivación (ERHIN) ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico con subrutinas que contemplan el proceso de acumulación/fusión de nieve que permite el seguimiento del manto de nieve y su fusión , esencial para la previsión de avenidas en embalses cuyas cuencas vertientes recogen altos porcentajes de precipitación solida. En determinados sectores del territorio español (Pirineos, Cordilleras Cantábrica e Ibérica, Sistema Central y Sierra Nevada) la precipitación nival alcanza valores significativos durante el invierno, que conducen a espesores de nieve persistentes en las cuencas alimentadoras de numerosos embalses y a la fusión rápida de esta nieve en períodos cortos de tiempo, directamente relacionados con la elevación de la isoterma de cero grados en primavera. Estos procesos condicionan la gestión de los mencionados embalses.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Desert dust suppressing precipitation: A possible desertification feedback loop

The effect of desert dust on cloud properties and precipitation has so far been studied solely by using theoretical models, which predict that rainfall would be enhanced. Here we present observations showing the contrary; the effect of dust on cloud properties is to inhibit precipitation. Using satellite and aircraft observations we show that clouds forming within desert dust contain small droplets and produce little precipitation by drop coalescence. Measurement of the size distribution and the chemical analysis of individual Saharan dust particles collected in such a dust storm suggest a possible mechanism for the diminished rainfall. The detrimental impact of dust on rainfall is smaller than that caused by smoke from biomass burning or anthropogenic air pollution, but the large abundance of desert dust in the atmosphere renders it important. The reduction of precipitation from clouds affected by desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turn raises more dust, thus providing a possible feedback loop to further decrease precipitation. Furthermore, anthropogenic changes of land use exposing the topsoil can initiate such a desertification feedback process.

Multidecadal variability of the continental precipitation annual amplitude driven by AMO and ENSO

As the water vapor content in the atmosphere scales with temperature, a warmer world is expected to feature an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Work to date has mainly focused on mean precipitation changes, whose connection to climatic modes is elusive at a global scale. Here we show that continental precipitation annual amplitude, which represents the annual range between minimum and maximum (monthly) rainfall, covaries with a linear combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and low-frequency variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on a decadal to multidecadal scale with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 (P<0.01). The teleconnection is a result of changes in moisture transport in key regions. Reported trends in the annual amplitude of global precipitation in recent decades need to be assessed in light of this substantial low-frequency variability, which could mask or enhance an anthropogenic signal in hydrological cycle changes.

Synthesis of Robust Hierarchical Silica Monoliths by Surface-Mediated Solution/Precipitation Reactions over Different Scales: Designing Capillary Microreactors for Environmental Applications

A synthetic procedure to prepare novel materials (surface-mediated fillings) based on robust hierarchical monoliths is reported. The methodology includes the deposition of a (micro- or mesoporous) silica thin film on the support followed by growth of a porous monolithic SiO2 structure. It has been demonstrated that this synthesis is viable for supports of different chemical nature with different inner diameters without shrinkage of the silica filling. The formation mechanism of the surface-mediated fillings is based on a solution/precipitation process and the anchoring of the silica filling to the deposited thin film. The interaction between the two SiO2 structures (monolith and thin film) depends on the porosity of the thin film and yields composite materials with different mechanical stability. By this procedure, capillary microreactors have been prepared and have been proved to be highly active and selective in the total and preferential oxidation of carbon monoxide (TOxCO and PrOxCO).

La Oscilación del Mediterráneo Occidental: un patrón de teleconexión ad hoc para el este de la Península Ibérica

Se presenta el origen y la historia de la propuesta de un nuevo patrón de teleconexión, la Oscilación del Mediterráneo Occidental (WeMO), presentado por el autor en 2002 y aceptado internacionalmente en 2006. El índice de la WeMO, como diferencia de las presiones atmosféricas en superficie, previamente estandarizadas, de Cádiz-San Fernando y Padua, ofrece mejores correlaciones con la precipitación en la fachada oriental de la Península Ibérica que la NAO. En la actualidad medio centenar de artículos en revistas indexadas internacionalmente, de especialidades científicas diversas, no solo de Climatología, han hecho uso del nuevo patrón o lo han referenciado. Para la Península Ibérica, la WeMO es el patrón más explicativo de la precipitación torrencial desde el nordeste al sur.