Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Optimal control and operation of drum granulation processes

Process optimisation and optimal control of batch and continuous drum granulation processes are studied in this paper. The main focus of the current research has been: (i) construction of optimisation and control relevant, population balance models through the incorporation of moisture content, drum rotation rate and bed depth into the coalescence kernels; (ii) investigation of optimal operational conditions using constrained optimisation techniques; (iii) development of optimal control algorithms based on discretized population balance equations; and (iv) comprehensive simulation studies on optimal control of both batch and continuous granulation processes. The objective of steady state optimisation is to minimise the recycle rate with minimum cost for continuous processes. It has been identified that the drum rotation-rate, bed depth (material charge), and moisture content of solids are practical decision (design) parameters for system optimisation. The objective for the optimal control of batch granulation processes is to maximize the mass of product-sized particles with minimum time and binder consumption. The objective for the optimal control of the continuous process is to drive the process from one steady state to another in a minimum time with minimum binder consumption, which is also known as the state-driving problem. It has been known for some time that the binder spray-rate is the most effective control (manipulative) variable. Although other possible manipulative variables, such as feed flow-rate and additional powder flow-rate have been investigated in the complete research project, only the single input problem with the binder spray rate as the manipulative variable is addressed in the paper to demonstrate the methodology. It can be shown from simulation results that the proposed models are suitable for control and optimisation studies, and the optimisation algorithms connected with either steady state or dynamic models are successful for the determination of optimal operational conditions and dynamic trajectories with good convergence properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of flow behaviour in a three-product cyclone using computational fluid dynamics

Simplicity in design and minimal floor space requirements render the hydrocyclone the preferred classifier in mineral processing plants. Empirical models have been developed for design and process optimisation but due to the complexity of the flow behaviour in the hydrocyclone these do not provide information on the internal separation mechanisms. To study the interaction of design variables, the flow behaviour needs to be considered, especially when modelling the new three-product cyclone. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to model the three-product cyclone, in particular the influence of the dual vortex finder arrangement on flow behaviour. From experimental work performed on the UG2 platinum ore, significant differences in the classification performance of the three-product cyclone were noticed with variations in the inner vortex finder length. Because of this simulations were performed for a range of inner vortex finder lengths. Simulations were also conducted on a conventional hydrocyclone of the same size to enable a direct comparison of the flow behaviour between the two cyclone designs. Significantly, high velocities were observed for the three-product cyclone with an inner vortex finder extended deep into the conical section of the cyclone. CFD studies revealed that in the three-product cyclone, a cylindrical shaped air-core is observed similar to conventional hydrocyclones. A constant diameter air-core was observed throughout the inner vortex finder length, while no air-core was present in the annulus. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of stirred mill performance using DEM simulation: Part 2 - Coherent flow structures, liner stress and wear, mixing and transport

Stirred Mills are becoming increasingly used for fine and ultra-fine grinding. This technology is still poorly understood when used in the mineral processing context. This makes process optimisation of such devices problematic. 3D DEM simulations of the flow of grinding media in pilot scale tower mills and pin mills are carried out in order to investigate the relative performance of these stirred mills. In the first part of this paper, media flow patterns and energy absorption rates and distributions were analysed to provide a good understanding of the media flow and the collisional environment in these mills. In this second part we analyse steady state coherent flow structures, liner stress and wear by impact and abrasion. We also examine mixing and transport efficiency. Together these provide a comprehensive understanding of all the key processes operating in these mills and a clear understanding of the relative performance issues. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of stirred mill performance using DEM simulation: Part 1 - Media motion, energy consumption and collisional environment

Stirred mills are becoming increasingly used for fine and ultra-fine grinding. This technology is still poorly understood when used in the mineral processing context. This makes process optimisation of such devices problematic. 3D DEM simulations of the flow of grinding media in pilot scale tower mills and pin mills are carried out in order to investigate the relative performance of these stirred mills. Media flow patterns and energy absorption rates and distributions are analysed here. In the second part of this paper, coherent flow structures, equipment wear and mixing and transport efficiency are analysed. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Eco-efficiency and dairy processing

The dairy industry is a global industry that provides significant nutritional benefit to many cultures. in australia the industry is especially important economically, being a large export earner, as well as a vital domestic sector. in recent years the sector has come under increased competitive pressure and has restructured to cope with the changes. the industry recently undertook an eco-efficiency project to investigate where business and environmental improvements might be found. the project involved collecting and collating previous project data and surveying 38 companies in different dairy operations, from market milk to dried products. after the survey, 10 sites in two states were visited to discuss eco-efficiency issues in detail with key players. From the surveys, visits and data compilation, a comprehensive manual was prepared to help interested companies find relevant eco-efficiency data easily and assist them in the implementation process. ten fact sheets were also produced covering the topics of water management, water recycling and re-use, refrigeration optimisation, boiler optimisation, biogas, the use of treated wastewater, yield optimisation and product recovery, optimisation of ciP systems, chemical use and membranes the project highlighted the large amount of technical and engineering expertise within the sector that could result in eco-efficiency outcomes and also identified the opportunities that exist for changes to occur in some operations to save energy, input raw materials and water.

The cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization

In recent years, the cross-entropy method has been successfully applied to a wide range of discrete optimization tasks. In this paper we consider the cross-entropy method in the context of continuous optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the cross-entropy method for solving difficult continuous multi-extremal optimization problems, including those with non-linear constraints.

Efficient experimental designs when most treatments are unreplicated

In early generation variety trials, large numbers of new breeders' lines (varieties) may be compared, with each having little seed available. A so-called unreplicated trial has each new variety on just one plot at a site, but includes several replicated control varieties, making up around 10% and 20% of the trial. The aim of the trial is to choose some (usually around one third) good performing new varieties to go on for further testing, rather than precise estimation of their mean yields. Now that spatial analyses of data from field experiments are becoming more common, there is interest in an efficient layout of an experiment given a proposed spatial analysis and an efficiency criterion. Common optimal design criteria values depend on the usual C-matrix, which is very large, and hence it is time consuming to calculate its inverse. Since most varieties are unreplicated, the variety incidence matrix has a simple form, and some matrix manipulations can dramatically reduce the computation needed. However, there are many designs to compare, and numerical optimisation lacks insight into good design features. Some possible design criteria are discussed, and approximations to their values considered. These allow the features of efficient layouts under spatial dependence to be given and compared. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of economic rent of hydropower: A case of Nepal

Like any other natural resources, hydro resources that are capable of generating electricity at cheaper cost give rise to economic rent. Nepal possesses huge amount of such cheaper hydro resources which is far in excess of the domestic demand. The existing rents levied by the governments are not found to address the potential value of resources. In this study hydro rent is calculated for two types of hydropower projects: (i) domestic demand oriented project and (ii) large and export oriented project. In doing so, the study uses the concept of hydro rent as a measure of cost savings achievable by the use of hydro resources over the least cost alternatives. The WASP-III+ optimisation software developed by IAEA has been used to derive two least cost generation expansion plans i.e. one with and the other without the nominated hydro resource. The difference in the costs of two plans gives the rent of the hydro resource.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

3D statistical shape models to embed spatial relationship information

This paper presents the creation of 3D statistical shape models of the knee bones and their use to embed information into a segmentation system for MRIs of the knee. We propose utilising the strong spatial relationship between the cartilages and the bones in the knee by embedding this information into the created models. This information can then be used to automate the initialisation of segmentation algorithms for the cartilages. The approach used to automatically generate the 3D statistical shape models of the bones is based on the point distribution model optimisation framework of Davies. Our implementation of this scheme uses a parameterized surface extraction algorithm, which is used as the basis for the optimisation scheme that automatically creates the 3D statistical shape models. The current approach is illustrated by generating 3D statistical shape models of the patella, tibia and femoral bones from a segmented database of the knee. The use of these models to embed spatial relationship information to aid in the automation of segmentation algorithms for the cartilages is then illustrated.