Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

Extratropical transition (ET) has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59) of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study

Impact of Northern Hemisphere snow on the Arctic Ocean in a climate model

A present day control integration performed with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate model HadGEM1.2 experiences a large salinity bias in the Arctic Ocean when compared to in situ observations. Such a large salinity bias may have implications for both Arctic and Atlantic Ocean circulation. Large differences are seen between the runoff in HadGEM and the observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, in particular in the Lena catchment, which could account for this salinity bias. We suggest that this discrepancy in runoff is, at least in part, due to a lack of snow accumulation in the model. The model climatology is very different to those obtained by remote sensing, such as the Global Snow Water Equivalent Climatology (NSIDC) and GlobSnow (ESA).

Late Würm and Early-Middle Holocene environmental change and human activities in the Northern Apennines, Italy

An enhanced radiocarbon-dated pollen-stratigraphical record from Rovegno (Liguria, 812m asl), northern Apennines (Italy), has provided a history of vegetation succession from before 17,056-16,621 cal yrs BP to the present day. The record indicates the transition from open Pinus woodland to Artemisia dominated grassland, and finally Juniperus shrubland during the late Würm. This is succeeded by Betula and Pinus woodland, and the expansion of thermophilous taxa, namely Abies, Corylus and Quercus during the Late Würm Lateglacial Interstadial. The ‘Younger Dryas’ is possibly represented by an increase in Betula and Artemisia. During the early Holocene, mixed coniferous-deciduous woodland is dominant with Quercus, as well as Abies, Fagus and Corylus. Fagus woodland becomes established sometime before 6488-6318 cal yrs BP, but never becomes a major component of the woodland cover. Throughout the middle Holocene, Abies woodland fl uctuates, with marked declines between 6488-6318 cal yrs BP and 5287-4835 cal yrs BP, although the cause remains uncertain. Finally, the paper evaluates the application of non-pollen palynomorphs, especially coprophilous fungal spores, at Prato Spilla ‘A’ (Emilia Romagna) and concludes that greater caution must be used when interpreting middle Holocene human activity based upon pollen data alone

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation

A recent intercomparison exercise proposed by the Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) revealed that the parameterized, or unresolved, surface stress in weather forecast models is highly model-dependent, especially over orography. Models of comparable resolution differ over land by as much as 20% in zonal mean total subgrid surface stress (Ttot). The way Ttot is partitioned between the different parameterizations is also model-dependent. In this study, we simulated in a particular model an increase in Ttot comparable with the spread found in the WGNE intercomparison. This increase was simulated in two ways, namely by increasing independently the contributions to Ttot of the turbulent orographic form drag scheme (TOFD) and of the orographic low-level blocking scheme (BLOCK). Increasing the parameterized orographic drag leads to significant changes in surface pressure, zonal wind and temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during winter both in 10 day weather forecasts and in seasonal integrations. However, the magnitude of these changes in circulation strongly depends on which scheme is modified. In 10 day forecasts, stronger changes are found when the TOFD stress is increased, while on seasonal time scales the effects are of comparable magnitude, although different in detail. At these time scales, the BLOCK scheme affects the lower stratosphere winds through changes in the resolved planetary waves which are associated with surface impacts, while the TOFD effects are mostly limited to the lower troposphere. The partitioning of Ttot between the two schemes appears to play an important role at all time scales.

Patterns of hominin occupation and cultural diversity across the Gebel Akhdar of Northern Libya over the last ~200 kyr

Excavations at Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, Libya, have revealed a cultural sequence that may span the last glacial–interglacial-glacial cycle. The TRANS-NAP project has been re-excavating Haua Fteah and conducting geoarchaeological survey of an ecologically diverse landscape that includes the fertile Gebel Akhdar and littoral, pre-desert, and desert biomes. A major aim of this project is to characterize cultural and environmental changes across the region and correlate the surface archaeology with that from Haua Fteah. To date, 181 sites have been recorded, ranging from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Late Stone Age (LSA). Their geographic distribution suggests temporal variation in patterns of hominin habitat preference, with significantly more LSA than MSA sites at higher elevations. The surface archaeology also points to substantial spatiotemporal technological variation within the MSA. These patterns may be explained by both paleoenvironmental change and paleodemographic shifts in the region, resulting in a variety of hominin adaptive responses.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Community perceptions of four protected areas in the Northern portion of the Cerrado hotspot, Brazil

Establishing effective networks of protected areas (PAS) is one of the major goals of conservation strategies worldwide. However, the success of PAS in promoting biodiversity conservation depends on their integration to local and regional contexts, reducing and mitigating human impacts originating from buffer zones. Community perceptions affect interactions between residents and PAS, and thereby conservation effectiveness. Research at Tocantins state (northern Brazilian Cerrado), aimed to analyse local community perceptions of four PAs, discussing how different factors may influence these. Perceptions were assessed through standardized interviews applied to PA employees and 275 local inhabitants. There was modest community participation in PA establishment and management. Residents were aware of the PAS` existence, but were unfamiliar with their goals. Length of residency and occupation of inhabitants influenced their PA perceptions, shaping different people-park relations in each of the four studied PAs. Involvement of local residents in PA planning and management represents a central strategy to strengthen local support for PAS over the long term. In those areas that still have settlements inside their boundaries, community relocation should follow a careful participatory process to avoid significant changes in local perceptions and attitudes towards these PAS, crucial for conserving Brazilian biodiversity.

High T/P evolution and metamorphic ages of the migmatitic basement of northern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina: Characterization of a mid-crustal segment of the Famatinian belt

New petrologic, thermobarometric and U-Pb monazite geochronologic information allowed to resolve the metamorphic evolution of a high temperature mid-crustal segment of an ancient subduction-related orogen. The EI Portezuelo Metamorphic-Igneous Complex, in the northern Sierras Pampeanas, is mainly composed of migmatites that evolved from amphibolite to granulite metamorphic facies, reaching thermal peak conditions of 670-820 degrees C and 4.5-5.3 kbar. The petrographic study combined with conventional and pseudosection thermobarometry led to deducing a short prograde metamorphic evolution within migmatite blocks. The garnet-absent migmatites represent amphibolite-facies rocks, whereas the cordierite-garnet-K-feldspar-sillimanite migmatites represent higher metamorphic grade rocks. U-Pb geochronology on monazite grains within leucosome record the time of migmatization between approximate to 477 and 470 Ma. Thus, the El Portezuelo Metamorphic-Igneous Complex is an example of exhumed Early Ordovician anatectic middle crust of the Famatinian mobile belt. Homogeneous exposure of similar paleo-depths throughout the Famatinian back-arc and isobaric cooling paths suggest slow exhumation and consequent longstanding crustal residence at high temperatures. High thermal gradients uniformly distributed in the Famatinian back-arc can be explained by shallow convection of a low-viscosity asthenosphere promoted by subducting-slab dehydration. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Late Paleozoic-Early Triassic magmatism on the western margin of Gondwana: Collahuasi area, Northern Chile

The basement in the `Altiplano` high plateau of the Andes of northern Chile mostly consists of late Paleozoic to Early Triassic felsic igneous rocks (Collahuasi Group) that were emplaced and extruded along the western margin of the Gondwana supercontinent. This igneous Suite crops out in the Collalluasi area and forms the backbone of most of the high Andes from latitude 20 degrees to 22 degrees S. Rocks of the Collahuasi Group and correlative formations form art extensive belt of volcanic and subvolcanic rocks throughout the main Andes of Chile, the Frontal Cordillera of Argentina (Choiyoi Group or Choiyoi Granite-Rhyolite Province), and the Eastern Cordillera of Peru. Thirteen new SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages from the Collahuasi area document a bimodal timing for magnatism, with a dominant peak at about 300 Ma and a less significant one at 244 Ma. Copper-Mo porphyry mineralization is related to the younger igneous event. Initial Hf isotopic ratios for the similar to 300 Ma zircons range from about -2 to +6 indicating that the magmas incorporated components with a significant crustal residence time. The 244 Ma magmas were derived from a less enriched source, with the initial HT values ranging from +2 to +6, suggestive of a mixture with a more depleted component. Limited whole rock (144)Nd/(143)Nd and (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotopic ratios further support the likelihood that the Collahuasi Group magmatism incorporated significant older crustal components, or at least a mixture of crustal sources with more and less evolved isotopic signatures. (C) 2007 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE RIO APA CRATON IN MATO GROSSO DO SUL (BRAZIL) AND NORTHERN PARAGUAY: GEOCHRONOLOGICAL EVOLUTION, CORRELATIONS AND TECTONIC IMPLICATIONS FOR RODINIA AND GONDWANA

The Rio Apa cratonic fragment crops out in Mato Grosso do Sul State of Brazil and in northeastern Paraguay. It comprises Paleo-Mesoproterozoic medium grade metamorphic rocks, intruded by granitic rocks, and is covered by the Neoproterozoic deposits of the Corumbi and Itapocurni Groups. Eastward it is bound by the southern portion of the Paraguay belt. In this work, more than 100 isotopic determinations, including U-Pb SHRIMP zircon ages, Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd whole-rock determinations, as well as K-Ar and Ar-Ar mineral ages, were reassessed in order to obtain a complete picture of its regional geological history. The tectonic evolution of the Rio Apa Craton starts with the formation of a series of magmatic arc complexes. The oldest U-Pb SHRIMP zircon age comes from a banded gneiss collected in the northern part of the region, with an age of 1950 +/- 23 Ma. The large granitic intrusion of the Alumiador Batholith yielded a U-Pb zircon age of 1839 +/- 33 Ma, and from the southeastern part of the area two orthogneisses gave zircon U-Pb ages of 1774 +/- 26 Ma and 1721 +/- 25 Ma. These may be coeval with the Alto Terere metamorphic rocks of the northeastern corner, intruded in their turn by the Baia das Garcas granitic rocks, one of them yielding a zircon U-Pb age of 1754 +/- 49 Ma. The original magmatic protoliths of these rocks involved some crustal component, as indicated by the Sm-Nd TDm model ages, between 1.9 and 2.5 Ga. Regional Sr isotopic homogenization, associated with tectonic deformation and medium-grade metamorphism occurred at approximately 1670 Ma, as suggested by Rb-Sr whole rock reference isochrons. Finally, at 1300 Ma ago, the Ar work indicates that the Rio Apa Craton was affected by widespread regional heating, when the temperature probably exceeded 350 degrees C. Geographic distribution, age and isotopic signature of the fithotectonic units suggest the existence of a major suture separating two different tectonic domains, juxtaposed at about 1670 Ma. From that time on, the unified Rio Apa continental block behaved as one coherent and stable tectonic unit. It correlates well with the SW corner of the Amazonian Craton, where the medium-grade rocks of the Juruena-Rio Negro tectonic province, with ages between 1600 and 1780 Ma, were reworked at about 1300 Ma. Looking at the largest scale, the Rio Apa Craton is probably attached to the larger Amazonian Craton, and the actual configuration of southwestern South America is possibly due to a complex arrangement of allochthonous blocks such as the Arequipa, Antofalla and Pampia, with different sizes, that may have originated as disrupted parts of either Laurentia or Amazonia, and were trapped during later collisions of these continental masses.

The Granada ignimbrite: A compound pyroclastic unit and its relationship with Upper Miocene caldera volcanism in the northern Puna

The Granada ignimbrite, an Upper Miocene volcanic unit from the northern Puna, previously has been interpreted as an extensive ignimbrite (>2300 km(2)) associated with eruptions from the Vilama caldera (trap-door event). On the basis of new data, we revise its correlation and redefine the unit as a compound, high aspect ratio ignimbrite, erupted at approximately 9.8 Ma. Calculated volumes (similar to 100 km(3)) are only moderate in comparison with other large volume (>1000 km(3)) ignimbrites that erupted approximately 2-6 m.y. later in the region (e.g. Vilama, Panizos, Atana). Six new volcanic units are recognized from sequences previously correlated with Granada (only one sourced from the same center). Consequently, the area ascribed to the Granada ignimbrite is substantially reduced (630 km(2)), and links to the Vilama caldera are not supported. Transport directions suggest the volcanic source for the Granada ignimbrite corresponds to vents buried under younger (>= 7.9-5 Ma) volcanic rocks of the Abra Granada volcanic complex. Episodes of caldera collapse at some stage of eruption are likely, though their nature and timing cannot be defined from available data. The eruption of the Granada ignimbrite marks the onset of a phase of large volume (caldera-sourced) volcanism in the northern Puna. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.