MODELING FUNCTIONAL DATA WITH SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS SHAPE CHARACTERISTICS

We propose a novel class of models for functional data exhibiting skewness or other shape characteristics that vary with spatial or temporal location. We use copulas so that the marginal distributions and the dependence structure can be modeled independently. Dependence is modeled with a Gaussian or t-copula, so that there is an underlying latent Gaussian process. We model the marginal distributions using the skew t family. The mean, variance, and shape parameters are modeled nonparametrically as functions of location. A computationally tractable inferential framework for estimating heterogeneous asymmetric or heavy-tailed marginal distributions is introduced. This framework provides a new set of tools for increasingly complex data collected in medical and public health studies. Our methods were motivated by and are illustrated with a state-of-the-art study of neuronal tracts in multiple sclerosis patients and healthy controls. Using the tools we have developed, we were able to find those locations along the tract most affected by the disease. However, our methods are general and highly relevant to many functional data sets. In addition to the application to one-dimensional tract profiles illustrated here, higher-dimensional extensions of the methodology could have direct applications to other biological data including functional and structural MRI.

MULTIPLE MODEL EVALUATION ABSENT THE GOLD STANDARD VIA MODEL COMBINATION

We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Whole-body computed tomography for multiple traumas using a triphasic injection protocol

To evaluate a triphasic injection protocol for whole-body multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in patients with multiple trauma. Fifty consecutive patients (41 men) were examined. Contrast medium (300 mg/mL iodine) was injected starting with 70 mL at 3 mL/s, followed by 0.1 mL/s for 8 s, and by another bolus of 75 mL at 4 mL/s. CT data acquisition started 50 s after the beginning of the first injection. Two experienced, blinded readers independently measured the density in all major arteries, veins, and parenchymatous organs. Image quality was assessed using a five-point ordinal rating scale and compared to standard injection protocols [n = 25 each for late arterial chest, portovenous abdomen, and MDCT angiography (CTA)]. With the exception of the infrarenal inferior caval vein, all blood vessels were depicted with diagnostic image quality using the multiple-trauma protocol. Arterial luminal density was slightly but significantly smaller compared to CTA (P < 0.01). Veins and parenchymatous organs were opacified significantly better compared to all other protocols (P < 0.01). Arm artifacts reduced the density of spleen and liver parenchyma significantly (P < 0.01). Similarly high image quality is achieved for arteries using the multiple-trauma protocol compared to CTA, and parenchymatous organs are depicted with better image quality compared to specialized protocols. Arm artifacts should be avoided.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamic MLC based on a multiple source model

Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the radiation field shaped by a multileaf collimator (MLC) is essential in intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). A previously developed multiple source model (MSM) for a 6 MV beam was extended to a 15 MV beam and supplemented with an accurate model of an 80-leaf dynamic MLC. Using the supplemented MSM and the MC code GEANT, lateral dose distributions were calculated in a water phantom and a portal water phantom. A field which is normally used for the validation of the step and shoot technique and a field from a realistic IMRT treatment plan delivered with dynamic MLC are investigated. To assess possible spectral changes caused by the modulation of beam intensity by an MLC, the energy spectra in five portal planes were calculated for moving slits of different widths. The extension of the MSM to 15 MV was validated by analysing energy fluences, depth doses and dose profiles. In addition, the MC-calculated primary energy spectrum was verified with an energy spectrum which was reconstructed from transmission measurements. MC-calculated dose profiles using the MSM for the step and shoot case and for the dynamic MLC case are in very good agreement with the measured data from film dosimetry. The investigation of a 13 cm wide field shows an increase in mean photon energy of up to 16% for the 0.25 cm slit compared to the open beam for 6 MV and of up to 6% for 15 MV, respectively. In conclusion, the MSM supplemented with the dynamic MLC has proven to be a powerful tool for investigational and benchmarking purposes or even for dose calculations in IMRT.

A multiple source model for 6 MV photon beam dose calculations using Monte Carlo

A multiple source model (MSM) for the 6 MV beam of a Varian Clinac 2300 C/D was developed by simulating radiation transport through the accelerator head for a set of square fields using the GEANT Monte Carlo (MC) code. The corresponding phase space (PS) data enabled the characterization of 12 sources representing the main components of the beam defining system. By parametrizing the source characteristics and by evaluating the dependence of the parameters on field size, it was possible to extend the validity of the model to arbitrary rectangular fields which include the central 3 x 3 cm2 field without additional precalculated PS data. Finally, a sampling procedure was developed in order to reproduce the PS data. To validate the MSM, the fluence, energy fluence and mean energy distributions determined from the original and the reproduced PS data were compared and showed very good agreement. In addition, the MC calculated primary energy spectrum was verified by an energy spectrum derived from transmission measurements. Comparisons of MC calculated depth dose curves and profiles, using original and PS data reproduced by the MSM, agree within 1% and 1 mm. Deviations from measured dose distributions are within 1.5% and 1 mm. However, the real beam leads to some larger deviations outside the geometrical beam area for large fields. Calculated output factors in 10 cm water depth agree within 1.5% with experimentally determined data. In conclusion, the MSM produces accurate PS data for MC photon dose calculations for the rectangular fields specified.

Multiple pathways of neuroprotection against oxidative stress and excitotoxic injury in immature primary hippocampal neurons

In the immature brain hydrogen peroxide accumulates after excitotoxic hypoxia-ischemia and is neurotoxic. Immature hippocampal neurons were exposed to N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA), a glutamate agonist, and hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) and the effects of free radical scavenging and transition metal chelation on neurotoxicity were studied. alpha-Phenyl-N-tert.-butylnitrone (PBN), a known superoxide scavenger, attenuated both H(2)O(2) and NMDA mediated toxicity. Treatment with desferrioxamine (DFX), an iron chelator, at the time of exposure to H(2)O(2) was ineffective, but pretreatment was protective. DFX also protected against NMDA toxicity. TPEN, a metal chelator with higher affinities for a broad spectrum of transition metal ions, also protected against H(2)O(2) toxicity but was ineffective against NMDA induced toxicity. These data suggest that during exposure to free radical and glutamate agonists, the presence of iron and other free metal ions contribute to neuronal cell death. In the immature nervous system this neuronal injury can be attenuated by free radical scavengers and metal chelators.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Post processing of multiple GPS receivers to enhance baseline accuracy

Inexpensive, commercial available off-the-shelf (COTS) Global Positioning Receivers (GPS) have typical accuracy of ±3 meters when augmented by the Wide Areas Augmentation System (WAAS). There exist applications that require position measurements between two moving targets. The focus of this work is to explore the viability of using clusters of COTS GPS receivers for relative position measurements to improve their accuracy. An experimental study was performed using two clusters, each with five GPS receivers, with a fixed distance of 4.5 m between the clusters. Although the relative position was fixed, the entire system of ten GPS receivers was on a mobile platform. Data was recorded while moving the system over a rectangular track with a perimeter distance of 7564 m. The data was post processed and yielded approximately 1 meter accuracy for the relative position vector between the two clusters.

Digital processing and data compilation approach for using remotely sensed imagery to identify geological lineaments in hard-rock terrains : an application for groundwater explorations in Nicaragua

Sustainable yields from water wells in hard-rock aquifers are achieved when the well bore intersects fracture networks. Fracture networks are often not readily discernable at the surface. Lineament analysis using remotely sensed satellite imagery has been employed to identify surface expressions of fracturing, and a variety of image-analysis techniques have been successfully applied in “ideal” settings. An ideal setting for lineament detection is where the influences of human development, vegetation, and climatic situations are minimal and hydrogeological conditions and geologic structure are known. There is not yet a well-accepted protocol for mapping lineaments nor have different approaches been compared in non-ideal settings. A new approach for image-processing/synthesis was developed to identify successful satellite imagery types for lineament analysis in non-ideal terrain. Four satellite sensors (ASTER, Landsat7 ETM+, QuickBird, RADARSAT-1) and a digital elevation model were evaluated for lineament analysis in Boaco, Nicaragua, where the landscape is subject to varied vegetative cover, a plethora of anthropogenic features, and frequent cloud cover that limit the availability of optical satellite data. A variety of digital image processing techniques were employed and lineament interpretations were performed to obtain 12 complementary image products that were evaluated subjectively to identify lineaments. The 12 lineament interpretations were synthesized to create a raster image of lineament zone coincidence that shows the level of agreement among the 12 interpretations. A composite lineament interpretation was made using the coincidence raster to restrict lineament observations to areas where multiple interpretations (at least 4) agree. Nine of the 11 previously mapped faults were identified from the coincidence raster. An additional 26 lineaments were identified from the coincidence raster, and the locations of 10 were confirmed by field observation. Four manual pumping tests suggest that well productivity is higher for wells proximal to lineament features. Interpretations from RADARSAT-1 products were superior to interpretations from other sensor products, suggesting that quality lineament interpretation in this region requires anthropogenic features to be minimized and topographic expressions to be maximized. The approach developed in this study has the potential to improve siting wells in non-ideal regions.

The rate of outpatient cataract surgery in ten European countries: an analysis using data from the SHARE survey

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the rates of outpatient cataract surgery (ROCS) in ten European countries and to find country-specific health indicators explaining the differences. METHODS: Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), 251 eligible respondents were identified for which cataract surgery was the last surgical procedure. The ROCS of ten countries were compared using logistic regression. The influence of the public expenditure on health as per cent of the total expenditure on health, of the number of acute care beds per 1,000 population, and of the number of practicing physicians per 1,000 population, was studied by multiple logistic regression. Additional information was obtained from country-specific opinion leaders in the field of cataract surgery. RESULTS: The ROCS differed significantly between the ten analysed European countries where Denmark had the highest (100%) and Austria the lowest (0%) rate of day care surgery. A decrease in the density of acute care beds (p < 0.0000001) and in the density of practicing physicians (p < 0.05) and an increase in the public expenditure on health as per cent of the total health expenditure (p < 0.01) lead to an increase in the ROCS. According to the opinion leaders, regulations and financial incentives also have a strong influence on the ROCS. CONCLUSIONS: The outpatient rate of cataract surgery in the ten European countries was mainly influenced by the acute-care beds density, but also by the density of practicing physicians, and by the public expenditure on health.

Waiting times for cataract surgery in ten European countries: an analysis using data from the SHARE survey

AIMS: To assess waiting times for cataract surgery and their acceptance in European countries, and to find explanatory, country-specific health indicators. METHODS: Using data from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe (SHARE), waiting times for cataract surgery of 245 respondents in ten countries were analysed with the help of linear regression. The influence of four country specific health indicators on waiting times was studied by multiple linear regression. The influence of waiting time and country on the wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined through logistic regression. Additional information was obtained for each country from opinion leaders in the field of cataract surgery. RESULTS: Waiting times differed significantly (p<0.001) between the ten analysed European countries. The length of wait was significantly influenced by the total expenditure on health (p<0.01) but not by the other country specific health indicators. The wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined by the length of wait (p<0.001) but not by the country where surgery was performed. CONCLUSION: The length of wait is influenced by the total expenditure on health, but not by the rate of public expenditure on health, by the physician density or by the acute bed density. The wish to have surgery performed earlier depends on the length of wait for surgery and is not influenced by the country.

Lung mechanics and gas exchange in ventilated preterm infants during treatment of hyaline membrane disease with multiple doses of artificial surfactant (Exosurf)

Eight premature infants ventilated for hyaline membrane disease and enrolled in the OSIRIS surfactant trial were studied. Lung mechanics, gas exchange [PaCO2, arterial/alveolar PO2 ratio (a/A ratio)], and ventilator settings were determined 20 minutes before and 20 minutes after the end of Exosurf instillation, and subsequently at 12-24 hour intervals. Respiratory system compliance (Crs) and resistance (Rrs) were measured by means of the single breath occlusion method. After surfactant instillation there were no significant immediate changes in PaCO2 (36 vs. 37 mmHg), a/A ratio (0.23 vs. 0.20), Crs (0.32 vs. 0.31 mL/cm H2O/kg), and Rrs (0.11 vs. 0.16 cmH2O/mL/s) (pooled data of 18 measurement pairs). During the clinical course, mean a/A ratio improved significantly each time from 0.17 (time 0) to 0.29 (time 12-13 hours), to 0.39 (time 24-36 hours) and to 0.60 (time 48-61 hours), although mean airway pressure was reduced substantially. Mean Crs increased significantly from 0.28 mL/cmH2O/kg (time 0) to 0.38 (time 12-13 hours), to 0.37 (time 24-38 hours), and to 0.52 (time 48-61 hours), whereas mean Rrs increased from 0.10 cm H2O/mL/s (time 0) to 0.11 (time 12-13 hours), to 0.13 (time 24-36 hours) and to (time 48-61 hours) with no overall significance. A highly significant correlation was found between Crs and a/A ratio (r = 0.698, P less than 0.001). We conclude that Exosurf does not induce immediate changes in oxygenation as does the instillation of (modified) natural surfactant preparations. However, after 12 and 24 hours of treatment oxygenation and Crs improve significantly.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cutting edge: Natalizumab blocks adhesion but not initial contact of human T cells to the blood-brain barrier in vivo in an animal model of multiple sclerosis

The humanized anti-alpha(4) integrin Ab Natalizumab is an effective treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Natalizumab is thought to exert its therapeutic efficacy by blocking the alpha(4) integrin-mediated binding of circulating immune cells to the blood-brain barrier (BBB). As alpha(4) integrins control other immunological processes, natalizumab may, however, execute its beneficial effects elsewhere. By means of intravital microscopy we demonstrate that natalizumab specifically inhibits the firm adhesion but not the rolling or capture of human T cells on the inflamed BBB in mice with acute experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). The efficiency of natalizumab to block T cell adhesion to the inflamed BBB was found to be more effective in EAE than in acute systemic TNF-alpha-induced inflammation. Our data demonstrate that alpha(4) integrin-mediated adhesion of human T cells to the inflamed BBB during EAE is efficiently blocked by natalizumab and thus provide the first direct in vivo proof of concept of this therapy in multiple sclerosis.

Mapping Individual Variation in Male Mating Preference Space: Multiple Choice in a Color Polymorphic Cichlid Fish

Sexual selection theory largely rests on the assumption that populations contain individual variation in mating preferences and that individuals are consistent in their preferences. However, there are few empirical studies of within-population variation and even fewer have examined individual male mating preferences. Here, we studied a color polymorphic population of the Lake Victoria cichlid fish Neochromis omnicaeruleus, a species in which color morphs are associated with different sex-determining factors. Wild-caught males were tested in three-way choice trials with multiple combinations of different females belonging to the three color morphs. Compositional log-ratio techniques were applied to analyze individual male mating preferences. Large individual variation in consistency, strength, and direction of male mating preferences for female color morphs was found and hierarchical clustering of the compositional data revealed the presence of four distinct preference groups corresponding to the three color morphs in addition to a no-preference class. Consistency of individual male mating preferences was higher in males with strongest preferences. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of the mechanisms underlying polymorphism in mating preferences.