Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene have been difficult to obtain for much of the lowland Neotropics. Using two published lacustrine pollen records and a climate-vegetation model based on the modern abundance distributions of 154 Neotropical plant families, we demonstrate how family-level counts of fossil pollen can be used to quantitatively reconstruct tropical paleoclimate and provide needed information on historic patterns of climatic change. With this family-level analysis, we show that one area of the lowland tropics, northeastern Bolivia, experienced cooling (1–3 °C) and drying (400 mm/yr), relative to present, during the late Pleistocene (50,000–12,000 calendar years before present [cal. yr B.P.]). Immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 cal. yr B.P.), we observe a distinct transition from cooler temperatures and variable precipitation to a period of warmer temperatures and relative dryness that extends to the middle Holocene (5000–3000 cal. yr B.P.). This prolonged reduction in precipitation occurs against the backdrop of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, indicating that the presence of mixed savanna and dry-forest communities in northeastern Bolivia durng the LGM was not solely the result of low CO2 levels, as suggested previously, but also lower precipitation. The results of our analysis demonstrate the potential for using the distribution and abundance structure of modern Neotropical plant families to infer paleoclimate from the fossil pollen record.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans

The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317–1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on the appearance of fossils or archaeological evidence to determine arrival times in different parts of the world, we use patterns of genetic variation in modern human populations to determine the plausibility of past demographic parameters. We develop a spatially explicit model of the expansion of anatomically modern humans and use climate reconstructions over the past 120 ky based on the Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 to quantify the possible effects of climate on human demography. The combinations of demographic parameters compatible with the current genetic makeup of worldwide populations indicate a clear effect of climate on past population densities. Our estimates of this effect, based on population genetics, capture the observed relationship between current climate and population density in modern hunter–gatherers worldwide, providing supporting evidence for the realism of our approach. Furthermore, although we did not use any archaeological and anthropological data to inform the model, the arrival times in different continents predicted by our model are also broadly consistent with the fossil and archaeological records. Our framework provides the most accurate spatiotemporal reconstruction of human demographic history available at present and will allow for a greater integration of genetic and archaeological evidence.

Informing early intervention: preschool predictors of anxiety disorders in middle childhood

Background: To inform early intervention practice, the present research examines how child anxiety, behavioural inhibition, maternal overinvolvement, maternal negativity, mother-child attachment and maternal anxiety, as assessed at age four, predict anxiety at age nine. Method: 202 children (102 behaviourally inhibited and 100 behaviourally uninhibited) aged 3–4 years were initially recruited and the predictors outlined above were assessed. Diagnostic assessments, using the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule, were then conducted five years later. Results: Behavioural inhibition, maternal anxiety, and maternal overinvolvement were significant predictors of clinical anxiety, even after controlling for baseline anxiety (p,.05). No significant effect of negativity or attachment security was found over and above baseline anxiety (p..1). Conclusions: Preschool children who show anxiety, are inhibited, have overinvolved mothers and mothers with anxiety disorders are at increased risk for anxiety in middle childhood. These factors can be used to identify suitable participants for early intervention and can be targeted within intervention programs.

New age estimates for the Palaeolithic assemblages and Pleistocene succession of Casablanca, Morocco

Marine and aeolian Quaternary sediments from Casablanca, Morocco were dated using the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal of quartz grains. These sediments form part of an extensive succession spanning the Pleistocene, and contain a rich faunal and archaeological record, including an Acheulian lithic assemblage from before the Brunhes–Matayama boundary, and a Homo erectus jaw from younger cave deposits. Sediment samples from the sites of Reddad Ben Ali, Oulad J’mel, Sidi Abderhamane and Thomas Quarries have been dated, in order to assess the upper limits of OSL. The revision of previously measured mammalian tooth enamel electron spin resonance (ESR) dates from the Grotte des Rhinocéros, Oulad Hamida Quarry 1, incorporating updated environmental dose rate measurements and attenuation calculations, also provide chronological constraint for the archaeological material preserved at Thomas Quarries. Several OSL age estimates extend back to around 500,000 years, with a single sample providing an OSL age close to 1 Ma in magnetically reversed sediments. These luminescence dates are some of the oldest determined, and their reliability is assessed using both internal criteria based on stratigraphic consistency, and external lithostratigraphic, morphostratigraphic and independent chronological constraints. For most samples, good internal agreement is observed using single aliquot regenerative-dose OSL measurements, while multiple aliquot additive-dose measurements generally have poorer resolution and consistency. Novel slow-component and component-resolved OSL approaches applied to four samples provide significantly enhanced dating precision, and an examination of the degree of signal zeroing at deposition. A comparison of the OSL age estimates with the updated ESR dates and one U-series date demonstrate that this method has great potential for providing reliable age estimates for sediments of this antiquity. We consider the cause of some slight age inversion observed at Thomas Quarries, and provide recommendations for further luminescence dating within this succession.

First results from a 3-dimensional middle atmosphere model

Initial results are presented from a middle atmosphere extension to a version of the European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting tropospheric model. The extended version of the model has been developed as part of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project and extends from the ground to approximately 90 km. A comprehensive solar radiation scheme is included which uses monthly averaged climatological ozone values. A linearised infrared cooling scheme is employed. The basic climatology of the model is described; the parametrization of drag due to orographically forced gravity waves is shown to have a dramatic effect on the simulations of the winter hemisphere.

The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change

A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred ~324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils ~1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5°C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence, global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region.

A low glycaemic load breakfast can attenuate cognitive impairments observed in middle aged obese females with impaired glucose tolerance.

Increased central adiposity and abnormalities in glucose tolerance preceding type 2 diabetes can have demonstrable negative effects on cognitive function, even in ostensibly healthy, middle-aged females. The potential for GL manipulations to modulate glycaemic response and cognitive function in type 2 diabetes and obesity merits further investigation..

Regulation of KCa2.3 andendothelium-dependent hyperpolarization (EDH) in the rat middle cerebral artery: the role of lipoxygenase metabolites and isoprostanes

Background and Purpose. In rat middle cerebral arteries, endothelium-dependent hyperpolarization (EDH) is mediated by activation of calcium-activated potassium(KCa) channels specifically KCa2.3 and KCa3.1. Lipoxygenase (LOX) products function as endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factors (EDHFs) in rabbit arteries by stimulating KCa2.3. We investigated if LOX products contribute to EDH in rat cerebral arteries. Methods. Arachidonic acid (AA) metabolites produced in middle cerebral arteries were measured using HPLC and LC/MS. Vascular tension and membrane potential responses to SLIGRL were simultaneously recorded using wire myography and intracellular microelectrodes. Results. SLIGRL, an agonist at PAR2 receptors, caused EDH that was inhibited by a combination of KCa2.3 and KCa3.1 blockade. Non-selective LOX-inhibition reduced EDH, whereas inhibition of 12-LOX had no effect. Soluble epoxide hydrolase (sEH) inhibition enhanced the KCa2.3 component of EDH. Following NO synthase (NOS) inhibition, the KCa2.3 component of EDH was absent. Using HPLC, middle cerebral arteries metabolized 14C-AA to 15- and 12-LOX products under control conditions. With NOS inhibition, there was little change in LOX metabolites, but increased F-type isoprostanes. 8-iso-PGF2α inhibited the KCa2.3 component of EDH. Conclusions. LOX metabolites mediate EDH in rat middle cerebral arteries. Inhibition of sEH increases the KCa2.3 component of EDH. Following NOS inhibition,loss of KCa2.3 function is independent of changes in LOX production or sEH inhibition but due to increased isoprostane production and subsequent stimulation of TP receptors. These findings have important implications in diseases associated with loss of NO signaling such as stroke; where inhibition of sEH and/or isoprostane formation may of benefit.

Patterns of maximum body size evolution in Cenozoic land mammals: eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing

There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing

Challenges in conducting and publishing research on the Middle East and Africa in leading journals

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the reasons for the lack of research attention paid to the Middle East (ME) and Africa regions. In particular, this study seeks to identify the reasons for and implications of the paucity of ME- and Africa-based studies in high-quality international journals in the marketing field with a specific focus on the challenges in conducting and publishing research on these regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature on the ME and Africa regions to identify papers published in 23 high-quality marketing, international business, and advertising journals. This search resulted in 301 articles, among which 125 articles were based on primary or secondary data collected from a local source in those regions. The authors of these 125 articles constitute the Delphi study sample. These academics provided input in an effort to reach a consensus regarding the two proposed models of academic research in both regions. Findings – This paper differs from previous studies, where academic freedom emerged as the most important inhibitor to conducting and publishing research. The most frequently mentioned challenges in conducting research in Africa were access to data, data collection issues, diversity of the region, and lack of research support infrastructure. For the ME, the most often described challenges included validity and reliability of data, language barriers, data collection issues, and availability of a network of researchers. Editors’ and reviewers’ low interest and limited knowledge were ranked high in both regions. South Africa, Israel, and Turkey emerged as outliers, in which research barriers were less challenging than in the rest of the two regions. The authors attribute this difference to the high incidence of US-trained or US-based scholars originating from these countries. Originality/value – To the best of the knowledge, no marketing studies have discussed the problems of publishing in high-quality international journals of marketing, international business, and advertising for either region. Thus, most of the issues the authors discuss in this paper offer new insightful results while supplementing previous research on the challenges of conducting and publishing research on specific world regions.

Modelling signatures of pulsed magnetopause reconnection in cusp ion dispersion signatures seen at middle altitudes

It is shown that the open magnetosphere model can reproduce both the down-going and the up-going magnetosheath ions seen in the cusp and mantle regions by the Polar satellite at middle altitudes. ?he pass studied shows a series of discontinuities in the ion dispersion, most of which are shown to arise from pulses of magnetopause reconnection rate. A total of 9 pulses are detected in an interval estimated to be about 30 min long, giving a mean repetition period of about 3 min: they vary in length between 0.5 min and 3.5 min and are separated by periods of much slower reconnection of duration 1-3 min. One step is not as predicted for reconnection rate pulses but is explained in terms of compressive motions caused by a pulse of solar wind dynamic pressure. The reconnection site is found to be 16 +/- 3 R-E from the ionosphere along the separatrix field line, placing it at low latitudes on the dayside magnetopause.

Energy and pitch-angle dispersions of LLBL/cusp ions seen at middle altitudes: predictions by the open magnetosphere model

Numerical simulations are presented of the ion distribution functions seen by middle-altitude spacecraft in the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and cusp regions when reconnection is, or has recently been, taking place at the equatorial magnetopause. From the evolution of the distribution function with time elapsed since the field line was opened, both the observed energy/observation-time and pitch-angle/energy dispersions are well reproduced. Distribution functions showing a mixture of magnetosheath and magnetospheric ions, often thought to be a signature of the LLBL, are found on newly opened field lines as a natural consequence of the magnetopause effects on the ions and their flight times. In addition, it is shown that the extent of the source region of the magnetosheath ions that are detected by a satellite is a function of the sensitivity of the ion instrument . If the instrument one-count level is high (and/or solar-wind densities are low), the cusp ion precipitation detected comes from a localised region of the mid-latitude magnetopause (around the magnetic cusp), even though the reconnection takes place at the equatorial magnetopause. However, if the instrument sensitivity is high enough, then ions injected from a large segment of the dayside magnetosphere (in the relevant hemisphere) will be detected in the cusp. Ion precipitation classed as LLBL is shown to arise from the low-latitude magnetopause, irrespective of the instrument sensitivity. Adoption of threshold flux definitions has the same effect as instrument sensitivity in artificially restricting the apparent source region.

Low and middle altitude cusp particle signatures for general magnetopause reconnection rate variations: 1. Theory

We present predictions of the signatures of magnetosheath particle precipitation (in the regions classified as open low-latitude boundary layer, cusp, mantle and polar cap) for periods when the interplanetary magnetic field has a southward component. These are made using the “pulsating cusp” model of the effects of time-varying magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. Predictions are made for both low-altitude satellites in the topside ionosphere and for midaltitude spacecraft in the magnetosphere. Low-altitude cusp signatures, which show a continuous ion dispersion signature, reveal "quasi-steady reconnection" (one limit of the pulsating cusp model), which persists for a period of at least 10 min. We estimate that “quasi-steady” in this context corresponds to fluctuations in the reconnection rate of a factor of 2 or less. The other limit of the pulsating cusp model explains the instantaneous jumps in the precipitating ion spectrum that have been observed at low altitudes. Such jumps are produced by isolated pulses of reconnection: that is, they are separated by intervals when the reconnection rate is zero. These also generate convecting patches on the magnetopause in which the field lines thread the boundary via a rotational discontinuity separated by more extensive regions of tangential discontinuity. Predictions of the corresponding ion precipitation signatures seen by midaltitude spacecraft are presented. We resolve the apparent contradiction between estimates of the width of the injection region from midaltitude data and the concept of continuous entry of solar wind plasma along open field lines. In addition, we reevaluate the use of pitch angle-energy dispersion to estimate the injection distance.