An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

Synthesis of optically complex core-shell colloidal suspensions: Pathways to multiplexed biological screening

The ability to generate enormous random libraries of DNA probes via split-and-mix synthesis on solid supports is an important biotechnological application of colloids that has not been fully utilized to date. To discriminate between colloid-based DNA probes each colloidal particle must be 'encoded' so it is distinguishable from all other particles. To this end, we have used novel particle synthesis strategies to produce large numbers of optically encoded particle suitable for DNA library synthesis. Multifluorescent particles with unique and reproducible optical signatures (i.e., fluorescence and light-scattering attributes) suitable for high-throughput flow cytometry have been produced. In the spectroscopic study presented here, we investigated the optical characteristics of multi-fluorescent particles that were synthesized by coating silica 'core' particles with up to six different fluorescent dye shells alternated with non-fluorescent silica 'spacer' shells. It was observed that the diameter of the particles increased by up to 20% as a result of the addition of twelve concentric shells and that there was a significant reduction in fluorescence emission intensities from inner shells as an increasing number of shells were deposited.

Seasonality of Monomachus Klug (Hymenoptera, Monomachidae) in the Biological Reserve of Duas Bocas, Espírito Santo State, Brazil

A survey of Monomachidae species was carried out in anarea of Atlantic rain forest of the Biological Reserve of Duas Bocas, Espírito Santo State, Brazil between September, 1996 and August, 1997. Two species of Mollomachus Klug, 1841, M. fuscator Perty, 1833 and M. eurycephalus Schletterer, 1890 were collected from May to September. Both species are typical of winter time and showed the same parttern of seasonality.

Osteoblast, fibroblast and in vivo biological response to poly(vinylidene fluoride) based composite materials

Electroactivematerials can be taken to advantage for the development of sensors and actuators as well as for novel tissue engineering strategies. Composites based on poly(vinylidenefluoride),PVDF,have been evaluated with respect to their biological response. Cell viability and proliferation were performed in vitro both with Mesenchymal Stem Cells differentiated to osteoblasts and Human Fibroblast Foreskin 1. In vivo tests were also performed using 6-week-old C57Bl/6 mice. It was concluded that zeolite and clay composites are biocompatible materials promoting cell response and not showing in vivo pro-inflammatory effects which renders both of them attractive for biological applications and tissue engineering, opening interesting perspectives to development of scaffolds from these composites. Ferrite and silver nanoparticle composites decrease osteoblast cell viability and carbon nanotubes decrease fibroblast viability. Further, carbon nanotube composites result in a significant increase in local vascularization accompanied an increase of inflammatory markers after implantation.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Models for the Reverse Engineering of Java/Swing Applications

Abstract. Interest in design and development of graphical user interface (GUIs) is growing in the last few years. However, correctness of GUI's code is essential to the correct execution of the overall software. Models can help in the evaluation of interactive applications by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. This paper describes our approach to reverse engineering abstract GUI models directly from the Java/Swing code.

Color Models and Illumination Changes

Color model representation allows characterizing in a quantitative manner, any defined color spectrum of visible light, i.e. with a wavelength between 400nm and 700nm. To accomplish that, each model, or color space, is associated with a function that allows mapping the spectral power distribution of the visible electromagnetic radiation, in a space defined by a set of discrete values that quantify the color components composing the model. Some color spaces are sensitive to changes in lighting conditions. Others assure the preservation of certain chromatic features, remaining immune to these changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each model in order to justify the adoption of color spaces in image processing and analysis techniques. This chapter will address the topic of digital imaging, main standards and formats. Next we will set the mathematical model of the image acquisition sensor response, which enables assessment of the various color spaces, with the aim of determining their invariance to illumination changes.

Extracting and verifying coordination models from source code

Current software development relies increasingly on non-trivial coordination logic for com- bining autonomous services often running on di erent platforms. As a rule, however, in typical non-trivial software systems, such a coordination layer is strongly weaved within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identi cation becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem which cannot be overestimated along any program understanding or refactoring process. Open access to source code, as granted in OSS certi cation, provides an opportunity for the devel- opment of methods and technologies to extract, from source code, the relevant coordination information. This paper is a step in this direction, combining a number of program analysis techniques to automatically recover coordination information from legacy code. Such information is then expressed as a model in Orc, a general purpose orchestration language

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Postharvest biological control of brown rot in peaches after cold storage preceded by preharvest chemical control 1

ABSTRACT Pathogenic fungi cause skin darkening and peach quality depreciation in post harvest. Therefore, alternative techniques to chemical treatment are necessary in order to reduce risks to human health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the application of Trichoderma harzianum in association with different fungicides applied before harvest to 'Eldorado' peaches for brown rot control and other quality parameters during storage. The treatments consisted of five preharvest fungicide applications (control, captan, iprodione, iminoctadine and tebuconazole) associated with postharvest application of T. harzianum, after cold storage (with and without application), in three evaluation times (zero, two and four days at 20 °C), resulting in a 5x2x3 factorial design. The application of T. harzianum only brought benefits to the control of brown rot when combined with the fungicide captan, at zero day shelf life. After two days, there was a greater skin darkening in peaches treated with T. harzianum compared with peaches without the treatment, except for peaches treated with the fungicide iprodione and T. harzianum The application of T. harzianum during postharvest showed no benefits for the control of brown rot, however, the association with fungicides reduced the incidence of Rhizopus stolonifer during the shelf life.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.