Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Validation of the GRAPE single view aerosol retrieval for ATSR-2 and insights into the long term global AOD trend over the ocean

The Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) project has produced a global data-set of cloud and aerosol properties from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer-2 (ATSR-2) instrument, covering the time period 1995�2001. This paper presents the validation of aerosol optical depths (AODs) over the ocean from this product against AERONET sun-photometer measurements, as well as a comparison to the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) optical depth product produced by the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). The GRAPE AOD over ocean is found to be in good agreement with AERONET measurements, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.79 and a best-fit slope of 1.0±0.1, but with a positive bias of 0.08±0.04. Although the GRAPE and GACP datasets show reasonable agreement, there are significant differences. These discrepancies are explored, and suggest that the downward trend in AOD reported by GACP may arise from changes in sampling due to the orbital drift of the AVHRR instruments.

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

The long-term safety and efficacy of bilateral transplantation of human fetal striatal tissue in patients with mild to moderate Huntington's disease.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a fatal autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disease involving progressive motor, cognitive and behavioural decline, leading to death approximately 20 years after motor onset. The disease is characterised pathologically by an early and progressive striatal neuronal cell loss and atrophy, which has provided the rationale for first clinical trials of neural repair using fetal striatal cell transplantation. Between 2000 and 2003, the 'NEST-UK' consortium carried out bilateral striatal transplants of human fetal striatal tissue in five HD patients. This paper describes the long-term follow up over a 3-10-year postoperative period of the patients, grafted and non-grafted, recruited to this cohort using the 'Core assessment program for intracerebral transplantations-HD' assessment protocol. No significant differences were found over time between the patients, grafted and non-grafted, on any subscore of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale, nor on the Mini Mental State Examination. There was a trend towards a slowing of progression on some timed motor tasks in four of the five patients with transplants, but overall, the trial showed no significant benefit of striatal allografts in comparison with a reference cohort of patients without grafts. Importantly, no significant adverse or placebo effects were seen. Notably, the raclopride positron emission tomography (PET) signal in individuals with transplants, indicated that there was no obvious surviving striatal graft tissue. This study concludes that fetal striatal allografting in HD is safe. While no sustained functional benefit was seen, we conclude that this may relate to the small amount of tissue that was grafted in this safety study compared with other reports of more successful transplants in patients with HD.

The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.

Why all counter-evidence to the critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition is not equal or problematic

That adult and child language acquisitions differ in route and outcome is observable. Notwithstanding, there is controversy as to what this observation means for the Critical Period Hypothesis’ (CPH) application to adult second language acquisition (SLA). As most versions of the CPH applied to SLA claim that differences result from maturational effects on in-born linguistic mechanisms, the CPH has many implications that are amendable to empirical investigation. To date, there is no shortage of literature claiming that the CPH applies or does not apply to normal adult SLA. Herein, I provide an epistemological discussion on the conceptual usefulness of the CPH in SLA (cf. Singleton 2005) coupled with a review of Long's (2005) evaluation of much available relevant research. Crucially, I review studies that Long did not consider and conclude differently that there is no critical/sensitive period for L2 syntactic and semantic acquisition.

An assessment of observed vertical flux divergence in long-term eddy-covariance measurements over two Midwestern forest ecosystems

Vertical divergence of CO2 fluxes is observed over two Midwestern AmeriFlux forest sites. The differences in ensemble averaged hourly CO2 fluxes measured at two heights above canopy are relatively small (0.2–0.5 μmol m−2 s−1), but they are the major contributors to differences (76–256 g C m−2 or 41.8–50.6%) in estimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2001. A friction velocity criterion is used in these estimates but mean flow advection is not accounted for. This study examines the effects of coordinate rotation, averaging time period, sampling frequency and co-spectral correction on CO2 fluxes measured at a single height, and on vertical flux differences measured between two heights. Both the offset in measured vertical velocity and the downflow/upflow caused by supporting tower structures in upwind directions lead to systematic over- or under-estimates of fluxes measured at a single height. An offset of 1 cm s−1 and an upflow/downflow of 1° lead to 1% and 5.6% differences in momentum fluxes and nighttime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, respectively, but only 0.5% and 2.8% differences in daytime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes. The sign and magnitude of both offset and upflow/downflow angle vary between sonic anemometers at two measurement heights. This introduces a systematic and large bias in vertical flux differences if these effects are not corrected in the coordinate rotation. A 1 h averaging time period is shown to be appropriate for the two sites. In the daytime, the absolute magnitudes of co-spectra decrease with height in the natural frequencies of 0.02–0.1 Hz but increase in the lower frequencies (<0.01 Hz). Thus, air motions in these two frequency ranges counteract each other in determining vertical flux differences, whose magnitude and sign vary with averaging time period. At night, co-spectral densities of CO2 are more positive at the higher levels of both sites in the frequency range of 0.03–0.4 Hz and this vertical increase is also shown at most frequencies lower than 0.03 Hz. Differences in co-spectral corrections at the two heights lead to a positive shift in vertical CO2 flux differences throughout the day at both sites. At night, the vertical CO2 flux differences between two measurement heights are 20–30% and 40–60% of co-spectral corrected CO2 fluxes measured at the lower levels of the two sites, respectively. Vertical differences of CO2 flux are relatively small in the daytime. Vertical differences in estimated mean vertical advection of CO2 between the two measurement heights generally do not improve the closure of the 1D (vertical) CO2 budget in the air layer between the two measurement heights. This may imply the significance of horizontal advection. However, a reliable assessment of mean advection contributions in annual NEE estimate at these two AmeriFlux sites is currently an unsolved problem.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Long-term storage of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes (Hebeloma spp.) at low temperature

A method for maintaining viable cultures of ectomycorrhizal Hebeloma strains in cold liquid culture medium is described. Isolates of Hebeloma spp., collected over a wide geographic range, were stored at 2 °C for a period of three years. All cultures survived this storage period, a greater time period and success rate than has previously been reported for the long term storage of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes. The method may prove useful for long-term storage of other basidiomycete genera.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Long-term positive effects of repeating a year in school: Six-year longitudinal study of self-beliefs, anxiety, social relations, school grades, and test scores

Consistently with a priori predictions, school retention (repeating a year in school) had largely positive effects for a diverse range of 10 outcomes (e.g., math self-concept, self-efficacy, anxiety, relations with teachers, parents and peers, school grades, and standardized achievement test scores). The design, based on a large, representative sample of German students (N = 1,325, M age = 11.75 years) measured each year during the first five years of secondary school, was particularly strong. It featured four independent retention groups (different groups of students, each repeating one of the four first years of secondary school, total N = 103), with multiple post-test waves to evaluate short- and long-term effects, controlling for covariates (gender, age, SES, primary school grades, IQ) and one or more sets of 10 outcomes realised prior to retention. Tests of developmental invariance demonstrated that the effects of retention (controlling for covariates and pre-retention outcomes) were highly consistent across this potentially volatile early-to-middle adolescent period; largely positive effects in the first year following retention were maintained in subsequent school years following retention. Particularly considering that these results are contrary to at least some of the accepted wisdom about school retention, the findings have important implications for educational researchers, policymakers and parents.

A Substrate Trapping Mutant Form of Striatal-Enriched Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase Prevents Amphetamine-Induced Stereotypies and Long-Term Potentiation in the Striatum

Background: Chronic, intermittent exposure to psychostimulant drugs results in striatal neuroadaptations leading to an increase in an array of behavioral responses on subsequent challenge days. A brain-specific striatal-enriched tyrosine phosphatase (STEP) regulates synaptic strengthening by dephosphorylating and inactivating several key synaptic proteins. This study tests the hypothesis that a substrate-trapping form of STEP will prevent the development of amphetamine-induced stereotypies. Methods: A substrate-trapping STEP protein, TAT-STEP (C-S), was infused into the ventrolateral striatum on each of 5 consecutive exposure days and I hour before amphetamine injection. Animals were challenged to see whether sensitization to the stereotypy-producing effects of amphetamine developed. The same TAT-STEP (C-S) protein was used on acute striatal slices to determine the impact on long-term potentiation and depression. Results: Infusion of TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the increase of amphetamine-induced stereotypies when given during the 5-day period of sensitization. The TAT-STEP (C-S) has no effect if only infused on the challenge day. Treatment of acute striatal slices with TAT-STEP (C-S) blocks the induction of long-term potentiation and potentates long-term depression. Conclusions: A substrate trapping form of STEP blocks the induction of amphetamine-induced neuroplasticity within the ventrolateral striatum and supports the hypothesis that STEP functions as a tonic break on synaptic strengthening.

Gradual Decline in Malaria-Specific Memory T Cell Responses Leads to Failure to Maintain Long-Term Protective Immunity to Plasmodium chabaudi AS Despite Persistence of B Cell Memory and Circulating Antibody

The mechanisms responsible for the generation and maintenance of immunological memory to Plasmodium are poorly understood and the reasons why protective immunity in humans is so difficult to achieve and rapidly lost remain a matter for debate. A possible explanation for the difficulty in building up an efficient immune response against this parasite is the massive T cell apoptosis resulting from exposure to high-dose parasite Ag. To determine the immunological mechanisms required for long-term protection against P. chabaudi malaria and the consequences of high and low acute phase parasite loads for acquisition of protective immunity, we performed a detailed analysis of T and B cell compartments over a period of 200 days following untreated and drug-treated infections in female C57BL/6 mice. By comparing several immunological parameters with the capacity to control a secondary parasite challenge, we concluded that loss of full protective immunity is not determined by acute phase parasite load nor by serum levels of specific IgG2a and IgG1. Abs, but appears to be a consequence of the progressive decline in memory T cell response to parasites, which occurs similarly in untreated and drug-treated mice with time after infection. Furthermore, by analyzing adoptive transfer experiments, we confirmed the major role of CD4(+) T cells for guaranteeing long-term full protection against P. chabaudi malaria. The Journal of Immunology, 2008, 181: 8344-8355.

High-School Students´ Summer Jobs and their Ensuing Labor Market Achievement : the Long Term Effect

In part because of high and persistent youth unemployment, adolescent students’ transition from school to work is an important policy and research topic. Many countries have implemented public programs offering summer jobs or work while in high-school as measures to smooth the transition. While the immediate effect of the programs on school attendance, school grades, and disposable income is well documented, their effect on the transition to the labor market remains an open question. Observational studies have shown strong positive effects of summer jobs, but also that the estimated effect is highly vulnerable to selection bias. In this paper, some 3700 high-school students applying for summer jobs in the period 1995-2003,via a program, are followed to 30 years of age. A quarter of the applicants were randomly offered a summer job each year. Among the remaining students, 50% had a (non-program related) summer job while in high-school. We find the income, post high-school, for the offered and non-offered groups to be similar and conclude that the effect of summer jobs on the transition to the labor market is inconsequential.