Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Spatial distribution of the soil carbon pool in a Holm oak dehesa in Spain

Aims Dehesas are agroforestry systems characterized by scattered trees among pastures, crops and/or fallows. A study at a Spanish dehesa has been carried out to estimate the spatial distribution of the soil organic carbon stock and to assess the influence of the tree cover. Methods The soil organic carbon stock was estimated from the five uppermost cm of themineral soil with high spatial resolution at two plots with different grazing intensities. The Universal Kriging technique was used to assess the spatial distribution of the soil organic carbon stocks, using tree coverage within a buffering area as an auxiliary variable. Results A significant positive correlation between tree presence and soil organic carbon stocks up to distances of around 8 m from the trees was found. The tree crown cover within a buffer up to a distance similar to the crown radius around the point absorbed 30 % of the variance in the model for both grazing intensities, but residual variance showed stronger spatial autocorrelation under regular grazing conditions. Conclusions Tree cover increases soil organic carbon stocks, and can be satisfactorily estimated by means of crown parameters. However, other factors are involved in the spatial pattern of the soil organic carbon distribution. Livestock plays an interactive role together with tree presence in soil organic carbon distribution.

Farm nitrogen balances in six European landscapes as an indicator for nitrogen losses and basis for improved management.

Improved management of nitrogen (N) in agriculture is necessary to achieve a sustainable balance between the production of food and other biomass, and the unwanted effects of N on water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity deterioration and human health. To analyse farm N-losses and the complex interactions within farming systems, efficient methods for identifying emissions hotspots and evaluating mitigation measures are therefore needed. The present paper aims to fill this gap at the farm and landscape scales. Six agricultural landscapes in Poland (PL), the Netherlands (NL), France (FR), Italy (IT), Scotland (UK) and Denmark (DK) were studied, and a common method was developed for undertaking farm inventories and the derivation of farm N balances, N surpluses and for evaluating uncertainty for the 222 farms and 11 440 ha of farmland included in the study. In all landscapes, a large variation in the farm N surplus was found, and thereby a large potential for reductions. The highest average N surpluses were found in the most livestock-intensive landscapes of IT, FR, and NL; on average 202 ± 28, 179 ± 63 and 178 ± 20 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. All landscapes showed hotspots, especially from livestock farms, including a special UK case with large-scale landless poultry farming. Overall, the average N surplus from the land-based UK farms dominated by extensive sheep and cattle grazing was only 31 ± 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1, but was similar to the N surplus of PL and DK (122 ± 20 and 146 ± 55 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively) when landless poultry farming was included. We found farm N balances to be a useful indicator for N losses and the potential for improving N management. Significant correlations to N surplus were found, both with ammonia air concentrations and nitrate concentrations in soils and groundwater, measured during the period of N management data collection in the landscapes from 2007–2009. This indicates that farm N surpluses may be used as an independent dataset for validation of measured and modelled N emissions in agricultural landscapes. No significant correlation was found with N measured in surface waters, probably because of spatial and temporal variations in groundwater buffering and biogeochemical reactions affecting N flows from farm to surface waters. A case study of the development in N surplus from the landscape in DK from 1998–2008 showed a 22% reduction related to measures targeted at N emissions from livestock farms. Based on the large differences in N surplus between average N management farms and the most modern and N-efficient farms, it was concluded that additional N-surplus reductions of 25–50%, as compared to the present level, were realistic in all landscapes. The implemented N-surplus method was thus effective for comparing and synthesizing results on farm N emissions and the potentials of mitigation options. It is recommended for use in combination with other methods for the assessment of landscape N emissions and farm N efficiency, including more detailed N source and N sink hotspot mapping, measurements and modelling.

Indicators of sustainability of agriculture and livestock in Spain - Indicadores de sostenibilidad de la agricultura y ganadería española

Sustainability is an adjective used to characterize agriculture according to the degree of fulfillment of goals. Those goals are related to agro-ecological, environmental and socio-economic dimensions. Sustainability is a dynamic and temporal character. In absolute terms there is not an ending value because it changes as its dimensions make it. Spain is one of the main agricultural countries of the European Union both in terms of crop land and value of productions. The object of this study is to present a methodology of sustainability account to be incorporated into national statistical and to assess their performance in the course of the years. For that reason the data sources used have been the statistics of the Department of Agriculture and from others database. We presented a set of indicators of sustainability and its evaluation in a time series of at least 30 years. The trend analysis offers the evolution of the numerical values of the indicators in terms of efficiency, physical units used for a unit of product or its value in euros. The analyzed crops have been: wheat, barley, maize, sunflower, sugar beet, wine grape, olive oil, citrus, melon and tomato. Physical indicators were: land, water, energy, erosion, soil organic matter, and carbon balance; socio-economic indicators were: agricultural final production, prices, income, employment and use of fertilizers. In general, all crops increased their productive efficiency, higher in irrigated than on dry land. Spanish agricultural carbon sequestration capacity has multiplied by five in the last seventy years, as a result of the increase in the productivity of crops, in terms of total biomass and the modification of the soil management techniques. Livestock sector presents data of pork, broilers and laying hen. Those showed an improvement in efficiency and economic indicators. Overall we can say that Spanish agriculture and livestock subsector have a tendency towards sustainability, being its main threats extreme meteorological factors and the instability of todays markets.

Improving the low-wind performance of the AERMOD atmospheric dispersion model for predicting short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions.

Short-range impacts to sensitive ecosystems as a result of ammonia emitted by livestock farms are often assessed using atmospheric dispersion modelling systems such as AERMOD. These assessments evaluate mean annual atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and nitrogen deposition rates at the ecosystem location for comparison with ecosystem damage thresholds. However, predictions of mean annual atmospheric concentrations can be dominated by periods of stable night-time conditions, which can contribute significantly to mean concentrations. AERMOD has been demonstrated to overestimate concentrations in certain stable low-wind conditions and so the model could potentially overestimate the short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions. This paper tests several modifications to the parameterisation of AERMOD (v12345) that aim to improve model predictions in low-wind conditions. The modifications are first described and then are applied to three pig farm case studies in the USA, Denmark and Spain to assess whether the modifications improve long-term mean ammonia concentration predictions through improved model performance. For these three case studies, most of the modifications tested improved model performance as a result of reducing the long-term mean concentration predictions, with the largest effect for low- or ground-level sources (e.g. slurry lagoons or naturally ventilated housing).

Tree and grazing influence on herbaceous pasture diversity in the Dehesa agroforestry system

Mediterranean Dehesas are one of the European natural habitat types of Community interest (43/92/EEC Directive), associated to high diversity levels and producer of important goods and services. In this work, tree contribution and grazing influence over pasture alpha diversity in a Dehesa in Central Spain was studied. We analyzed Richness and Shannon-Wiener (SW) indexes on herbaceous layer under 16 holms oak trees (64 sampling units distributed in two directions and in two distances to the trunk) distributed in four different grazing management zones (depending on species and stocking rate). Floristic composition by species or morphospecies and species abundance were analyzed for each sample unit. Linear mixed models (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to study relationships between alpha diversity measures and independent factors. Edge crown influence showed the highest values of Richness and SW index. No significant differences were found between orientations under tree crown influence. Grazing management had a significant effect over Richness and SW measures, specially the grazing species (cattle or sheep). We preliminary quantify and analyze the interaction of tree stratum and grazing management over herbaceous diversity in a year of extreme climatic conditions.

Climate and grazing control nurse effects in an Ecuadorian dry shrubby community

Positive plant interactions have strong effects on plant diversity at several spatial scales, expanding species distribution under stressful conditions. We evaluated the joint effect of climate and grazing on the nurse effect of Croton wagneri, by monitoring several community attributes at two spatial scales: microhabitat and plant community. Two very close locations that only differed in grazing intensity were surveyed in an Ecuadorian dry scrub ecosystem. At each location, two 30 × 30-m plots were established at four altitudinal levels (1500, 2630, 1959 and 2100 m asl) and 40 microsites were surveyed in each plot. Croton wagneri acted as community hubs, increasing species richness and plant cover at both scales. Beneath nurses mean richness and cover values were 3.4 and 21.9%, and in open areas 2.3 and 4.5%, respectively. Magnitude of nurse effect was dependent on climate and grazing conditions. In ungrazed locations, cover increased and diversity reduced with altitude, while grazed locations showed the opposite trend. In ungrazed plots the interactions shifted from positive to negative with altitude, in grazed locations interactions remained positive. We conclude that the nurse effect is a key mechanism regulating community properties not only at microsite but also at the entire community scale.

Effect of nano-Si2O and nano-Al2O3 on cement mortars for use in agriculture and livestock production

The effect of nano-silica, nano-alumina and binary combinations on surface hardness, resistance to abrasion and freeze-thaw cycle resistance in cement mortars was investigated. The Vickers hardness, the Los Angeles coefficient (LA) and the loss of mass in each of the freeze–thaw cycles to which the samples were subjected were measured. Four cement mortars CEM I 52.5R were prepared, one as control, and the other three with the additions: 5% nano-Si, 5% nano-Al and mix 2.5% n-Si and 2.5% n-Al. Mortars were tested at 7, 28 and 90 d of curing to determine compression strength, total porosity and pore distribution by mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and the relationship between the CSH gel and Portlandite total by thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA). The capillary suction coefficient and an analysis by a scanning electron microscope (SEM) was made. There was a large increase in Vickers surface hardness for 5% n-Si mortar and a slight increase in resistance to abrasion. No significant difference was found between the mortars with nano-particles, whose LA was about 10.8, classifying them as materials with good resistance to abrasion. The microstructure shows that the addition of n-Si in mortars refines their porous matrix, increases the amount of hydrated gels and generates significant changes in both Portlandite and Ettringite. This produced a significant improvement in freeze–thaw cycle resistance. The effect of n-Al on mortar was null or negative with respect to freeze–thaw cycle resistance.

Drought and grazing combined: Contrasting shifts in plant interactions at species pair and community level

The combined effects of drought stress and grazing pressure on shaping plant–plant interactions are still poorly understood, while this combination is common in arid ecosystems. In this study we assessed the relative effect of grazing pressure and slope aspect (drought stress) on vegetation cover and soil functioning in semi-arid Mediterranean grassland–shrublands in southeastern Spain. Moreover, we linked these two stress factors to plant co-occurrence patterns at species-pair and community levels, by performing C-score analyses. Vegetation cover and soil functioning decreased with higher grazing pressure and more south-facing (drier) slopes. At the community level, plants at south-facing slopes were negatively associated at no grazing but positively associated at low grazing pressure and randomly associated at high grazing pressure. At north-facing slopes, grazing did not result in a shift in the direction of the association. In contrast, analysis of pairwise species co-occurrence patterns showed that the dominant species Stipa tenacissima and Anthyllis cytisoides shifted from excluding each other to co-occurring with increasing grazing pressure at north-facing slopes. Our findings highlight that for improved understanding of plant interactions along stress gradients, interactions between species pairs and interactions at the community level should be assessed, as these may reveal contrasting results.

Factors Affecting Jaguar and Puma Predation on Livestock in Costa Rica

The wild cats and the livestock farmers are part of the space conflict in the rural areas in Latin America. In this sense, this conflict causes a discomfort among the livestock producers due to the loss of animals and, consequently, it also causes a negative reaction towards the wild cats leading such reaction into the elimination of the wild cats per se. Although, there have been some initiatives have tried to approach such conflict by recommending mitigation and prevention measurements to the producers, these measurements are undertaken without coordination. For this reason, the following project presents a planning tool that can ease the coordination processes undertaken for the solving of the conflict between human beings and wild cats.