Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

A Method for siting and prioritizing the removal of derelict vessels in Florida Coastal Waters: test applications in the Florida Keys

Increased boating activities and new waterfront developments have contributed an estimated 3,000 dismantled, abandoned, junked, wrecked, derelict vessels to Florida coastal waters. This report outlines a method of siting and prioritizing derelict vessel removal using the Florida Keys as a test area. The data base was information on 240 vessels, obtained from Florida Marine Patrol files. Vessel location was plotted on 1:250,000 regional and 1:5,000 and 1:12,000 site maps. Type of vessel, length, hull material, engine, fuel tanks, overall condition, afloat and submerged characteristics, and accessibility, were used to derive parametric site indices of removal priority and removal difficulty. Results indicate 59 top priority cases which should be the focus of immediate clean up efforts in the Florida Keys. Half of these cases are rated low to moderate in removal difficulty; the remainder are difficult to remove. Removal difficulty is a surrogate for removal cost: low difficulty -low cost, high difficulty - high cost. The rating scheme offers coastal planners options of focusing removal operations either on (1) specific areas with clusters of high priority derelict vessels or on (2) selected targeted derelicts at various, specific locations. (PDF has 59 pages.)

Early Functional Deficit and Microglial Disturbances in a Mouse Model of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

11 p.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Remark on Laser Bending Mechanisms

Laser bending mechanism is remarked, and its essence is the temperature gradient mechanism. The reverse bending and the thickened mechanisms are included in the temperature gradient mechanism because they are only different phenomena based on different thickness of the material. Experimental result shows that there is a kind of un-convention temperature distribution in the limit thickness specimen under laser irradiation. This phenomenon cannot be explained by the classical Fourier Law and is defined as Pan-Fourier effect in order to explain laser bending mechanism further.

Numerical Analysis of the Effects of Free-Stream Thermo-Chemical State on the Test Model Flow Field in High-Enthalpy Tunnel

The effects of the free-stream thermo-chemical state on the test model flow field in the high-enthalpy tunnel are studied numerically. The properties of the free-stream, which is in thermo-chemical non-equilibrium, are determined by calculating the nozzle flow field. A free-stream with total enthalpy equal to the real one in the tunnel while in thermo-chemical equilibrium is constructed artificially to simulate the natural atmosphere condition. The flow fields over the test models (blunt cone and Apollo command capsule model) under both the non-equilibrium and the virtual equilibrium free-stream conditions are calculated. By comparing the properties including pressure, temperature, species concentration and radiation distributions of these two types of flow fields, the effects of the non-equilibrium state of the free-stream in the high-enthalpy shock tunnel are analyzed.

Diffusive waves in a channel with concentrated lateral inflow

In the current paper an analytical solution for diffusive wave equation with the concentrate-distributed lateral inflow is yielded. Finite-difference numerical method is also employed to validate this model. The backwater effects drawn from lateral inflow on the mainstream are examined finally.

Simulating the Lateral Transport of lchthyoplankton in the Potomac Estuary

Previous simulations of potential ichthyoplankton entrainment by power generating stations on the Potomac estuary have not included the influence of lateral transport in distributing eggs and larvae over the nursery area. Therefore, two-dimensional, vertically-averaged hydrodynamic and kinematic models of passive organism transport were developed to represent advective and dispersive processes near the proposed Douglas Point Nuclear Generating Station. Although the more refined model did not substantially alter the estimate of ichthyoplankton entrainment, it did reveal that lateral inhomogeneities in hydrodynamics could engender several fold differences in entrainment probabilities on opposite sides of the estuary. Models of higher resolution and greater biological detail did not project greater total entrainment by the Douglas Point plant, because the volume of nontidal flow past the site was large in comparison to the proposed rate of cooling water withdrawal.

Experimental investigation of Very-High-Cycle Fatigue behavior for a structural steel

Very-High-Cycle Fatigue (VHCF) test for a medium carbon structural steel (40Cr) has been performed and a stepwise S-N curve was obtained by employing cantilever-type rotary bending fatigue machine with hourglass shape specimen. The S-N curve was well explained as a combination of curves for surface-induced fracture and interior inclusion-induced fracture with fish-eye patterns. The morphology of the fish-eye pattern was illustrated in order to clarify subsurface crack initiation and propagation behavior.

Lateral motion and departure of vapor bubbles in nucleate pool boiling on thin wires in microgravity

A space experiment on bubble behavior and heat transfer in subcooled pool boiling phenomenon has been performed utilizing the temperature-controlled pool boiling (TCPB) device both in normal gravity in the laboratory and in microgravity aboard the 22(nd) Chinese recoverable satellite. The fluid is R113 at 0.1 MPa and subcooled by 26 degrees C nominally. A thin platinum wire of 60 mu m in diameter and 30mm in length is simultaneously used as heater and thermometer. Only the lateral motion and the departure of discrete vapor bubbles in nucleate pool boiling are reported and analyzed in the present paper. A scale analysis on the Marangoni convection surrounding a bubble in the process of subcooled nucleate pool boiling leads to formulas of the characteristic velocity of the lateral motion and its observability. The predictions consist with the experimental observations. Considering the Marangoni effect, a new qualitative model is proposed to reveal the mechanism underlying the bubble departure processes and a quantitative agreement can also be acquired.

Test University of Ann Lloyd Annual Report

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