Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Large magnetoelectric coupling in nanoscale BiFeO3 from direct electrical measurements

We report the results of direct measurement of remanent hysteresis loops on nanochains of BiFeO3 at room temperature under zero and ∼20 kOe magnetic field. We noticed a suppression of remanent polarization by nearly ∼40% under the magnetic field. The powder neutron diffraction data reveal significant ion displacements under a magnetic field which seems to be the origin of the suppression of polarization. The isolated nanoparticles, comprising the chains, exhibit evolution of ferroelectric domains under dc electric field and complete 180 switching in switching-spectroscopy piezoresponse force microscopy. They also exhibit stronger ferromagnetism with nearly an order of magnitude higher saturation magnetization than that of the bulk sample. These results show that the nanoscale BiFeO3 exhibits coexistence of ferroelectric and ferromagnetic order and a strong magnetoelectric multiferroic coupling at room temperature comparable to what some of the type-II multiferroics show at a very low temperature.

Combining Information from Multiple Sources in Bayesian Modeling

Surveys can collect important data that inform policy decisions and drive social science research. Large government surveys collect information from the U.S. population on a wide range of topics, including demographics, education, employment, and lifestyle. Analysis of survey data presents unique challenges. In particular, one needs to account for missing data, for complex sampling designs, and for measurement error. Conceptually, a survey organization could spend lots of resources getting high-quality responses from a simple random sample, resulting in survey data that are easy to analyze. However, this scenario often is not realistic. To address these practical issues, survey organizations can leverage the information available from other sources of data. For example, in longitudinal studies that suffer from attrition, they can use the information from refreshment samples to correct for potential attrition bias. They can use information from known marginal distributions or survey design to improve inferences. They can use information from gold standard sources to correct for measurement error.

This thesis presents novel approaches to combining information from multiple sources that address the three problems described above.

The first method addresses nonignorable unit nonresponse and attrition in a panel survey with a refreshment sample. Panel surveys typically suffer from attrition, which can lead to biased inference when basing analysis only on cases that complete all waves of the panel. Unfortunately, the panel data alone cannot inform the extent of the bias due to attrition, so analysts must make strong and untestable assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Many panel studies also include refreshment samples, which are data collected from a random sample of new

individuals during some later wave of the panel. Refreshment samples offer information that can be utilized to correct for biases induced by nonignorable attrition while reducing reliance on strong assumptions about the attrition process. To date, these bias correction methods have not dealt with two key practical issues in panel studies: unit nonresponse in the initial wave of the panel and in the

refreshment sample itself. As we illustrate, nonignorable unit nonresponse

can significantly compromise the analyst's ability to use the refreshment samples for attrition bias correction. Thus, it is crucial for analysts to assess how sensitive their inferences---corrected for panel attrition---are to different assumptions about the nature of the unit nonresponse. We present an approach that facilitates such sensitivity analyses, both for suspected nonignorable unit nonresponse

in the initial wave and in the refreshment sample. We illustrate the approach using simulation studies and an analysis of data from the 2007-2008 Associated Press/Yahoo News election panel study.

The second method incorporates informative prior beliefs about

marginal probabilities into Bayesian latent class models for categorical data.

The basic idea is to append synthetic observations to the original data such that

(i) the empirical distributions of the desired margins match those of the prior beliefs, and (ii) the values of the remaining variables are left missing. The degree of prior uncertainty is controlled by the number of augmented records. Posterior inferences can be obtained via typical MCMC algorithms for latent class models, tailored to deal efficiently with the missing values in the concatenated data.

We illustrate the approach using a variety of simulations based on data from the American Community Survey, including an example of how augmented records can be used to fit latent class models to data from stratified samples.

The third method leverages the information from a gold standard survey to model reporting error. Survey data are subject to reporting error when respondents misunderstand the question or accidentally select the wrong response. Sometimes survey respondents knowingly select the wrong response, for example, by reporting a higher level of education than they actually have attained. We present an approach that allows an analyst to model reporting error by incorporating information from a gold standard survey. The analyst can specify various reporting error models and assess how sensitive their conclusions are to different assumptions about the reporting error process. We illustrate the approach using simulations based on data from the 1993 National Survey of College Graduates. We use the method to impute error-corrected educational attainments in the 2010 American Community Survey using the 2010 National Survey of College Graduates as the gold standard survey.

Floral and faunal characteristics and content of photosynthetic pigment in soils of northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

Although soil algae are among the main primary producers in most terrestrial ecosystems of continental Antarctica, there are very few quantitative studies on their relative proportion in the main algal groups and on how their distribution is affected by biotic and abiotic factors. Such knowledge is essential for understanding the functioning of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. We therefore analyzed biological soil crusts from northern Victoria Land to determine their pH, electrical conductivity (EC), water content (W), total and organic C (TC and TOC) and total N (TN) contents, and the presence and abundance of photosynthetic pigments. In particular, the latter were tested as proxies for biomass and coarse-resolution community structure. Soil samples were collected from five sites with known soil algal communities and the distribution of pigments was shown to reflect differences in the relative proportions of Chlorophyta, Cyanophyta and Bacillariophyta in these sites. Multivariate and univariate models strongly indicated that almost all soil variables (EC, W, TOC and TN) were important environmental correlates of pigment distribution. However, a significant amount of variation is independent of these soil variables and may be ascribed to local variability such as changes in microclimate at varying spatial and temporal scales. There are at least five possible sources of local variation: pigment preservation, temporal variations in water availability, temporal and spatial interactions among environmental and biological components, the local-scale patchiness of organism distribution, and biotic interactions.

Global distributions of diazotrophs Gamma-A nifH genes abundance - Depth integrated values computed from a collection of source datasets - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present data set presents depth integrated values of diazotrophs Gamma-A nifH genes abundance, computed from a collection of source data sets.

Global distributions of diazotrophs abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates - Collection of source datasets - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present collection presents the original data sets used to compile Global distributions of diazotrophs abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

Biomass of large protists from the Infrakingdom Rhizaria in the global ocean

The present data set is a worldwide compilation from 11 oceanographic expeditions during which an underwater vision profiler (UVP) was deployed in situ to determine the vertical distribution (biomass) of 4 taxonomic groups of plankton larger than 600 µm, belonging to the Infrakingdom Rhizaria, including Collodaria, Acantharia, Phaeodaria and other Rhizaria. Vertical distributions are binned in four layers: 0-100, 0-200, 100-500 and 0-500 m.

(Table 1) Sample descriptions, carbon contents, and lipid yields across the K/T boundary at DSDP Hole 93-605 and at Stevns Klint, Denmark

This reconnaissance study was undertaken to determine whether the mass extinctions and faunal successions that mark the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary left a discernible molecular fossil record in the sediments of this period. Lipid signatures of sediments taken from above and below the K/T boundary were compared in core and outcrop samples taken from two locations: the U.S. east coast continental margin (western Atlantic Ocean, DSDP Site 605) and Stevns Klint, Denmark. Four calcareous sediments taken from above and below the K/T boundary in DSDP Hole 605, Section 605-66-1, revealed changing lipid signatures between above and below that are characterized by a large component of unresolved naphthenic hydrocarbons and a homologous series of n-alkanes ranging from Ci6 to C33. These lipid signatures are attributed to an influx of a terrestrial higher plant component and to bacterial reworking of the sediments under partially anoxic depositional and/or diagenetic conditions. The outcrop samples from Stevns Klint had extremely low concentrations of indigenous lipids. The fish clay at the K/T boundary contained traces of microbial hydrocarbons and fatty acids, whereas the carbonates above and below had only microbial fatty acids and additional terrestrial resin acids. The data from both sites indicate a perturbation in the deposition of lipid compound classes across the K/T boundary.

Geochemistry of basalts from the Caribbean Large Igneous Province

Oceanic flood basalts are poorly understood, short-term expressions of highly increased heat flux and mass flow within the convecting mantle. The uniqueness of the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP, 92-74 Ma) with respect to other Cretaceous oceanic plateaus is its extensive sub-aerial exposures, providing an excellent basis to investigate the temporal and compositional relationships within a starting plume head. We present major element, trace element and initial Sr-Nd-Pb isotope composition of 40 extrusive rocks from the Caribbean Plateau, including onland sections in Costa Rica, Colombia and Curaçao as well as DSDP Sites in the Central Caribbean. Even though the lavas were erupted over an area of ~3*10**6 km**2, the majority have strikingly uniform incompatible element patterns (La/Yb=0.96+/-0.16, n=64 out of 79 samples, 2sigma) and initial Nd-Pb isotopic compositions (e.g. 143Nd/144Ndin=0.51291+/-3, epsilon-Nd i=7.3+/-0.6, 206Pb/204Pbin=18.86+/-0.12, n=54 out of 66, 2sigma). Lavas with endmember compositions have only been sampled at the DSDP Sites, Gorgona Island (Colombia) and the 65-60 Ma accreted Quepos and Osa igneous complexes (Costa Rica) of the subsequent hotspot track. Despite the relatively uniform composition of most lavas, linear correlations exist between isotope ratios and between isotope and highly incompatible trace element ratios. The Sr-Nd-Pb isotope and trace element signatures of the chemically enriched lavas are compatible with derivation from recycled oceanic crust, while the depleted lavas are derived from a highly residual source. This source could represent either oceanic lithospheric mantle left after ocean crust formation or gabbros with interlayered ultramafic cumulates of the lower oceanic crust. High 3He/4He in olivines of enriched picrites at Quepos are ~12 times higher than the atmospheric ratio suggesting that the enriched component may have once resided in the lower mantle. Evaluation of the Sm-Nd and U-Pb isotope systematics on isochron diagrams suggests that the age of separation of enriched and depleted components from the depleted MORB source mantle could have been <=500 Ma before CLIP formation and interpreted to reflect the recycling time of the CLIP source. Mantle plume heads may provide a mechanism for transporting large volumes of possibly young recycled oceanic lithosphere residing in the lower mantle back into the shallow MORB source mantle.

Dinoflagellate cysts in western equatorial Atlantic surface sediments

In contrast to the wide range of studies carried out in temperate and high-latitude oceanic regions, only a few studies have focused on recent and Holocene organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages from the tropics. This information is, however, essential for fully understanding the ability of species to adapt to different oceanographic regimes, and ultimately their potential application to local and regional palaeoenvironmental and palaeoceanographic reconstructions. Surface sediment samples of the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean north of Brazil, an area greatly influenced by Amazon River discharge waters, were therefore analysed in detail for their organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. A diverse association of 43 taxa was identified, and large differences in cyst distribution were observed. The cyst thanatocoenosis in bottom sediments reflects the seasonal advection of Amazon River discharge water through the Guyana Current and the North Equatorial Countercurrent well into the North Atlantic. To establish potential links between cyst distribution and the environmental conditions of the upper water column, distribution patterns were compared with mean temperature, salinity, density and stratification gradients within the upper water column (0-100 m) over different times of the year, using correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis. The analyses show that differences in these parameters only play a subordinate role in determining species distribution. Instead, nutrient availability, or related factors, dominates the distribution pattern. The only possible indicators of slightly reduced salinities are Trinovantedinium applanatum and Lingulodinium machaerophorum. Four assemblage groups of cyst taxa with similar environmental affinities related to specific water masses/currents can be distinguished and have potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.

Phytoplanktonic microfossil groups of sediments from the South and Equatorial Atlantic

Individual planktonic microfossil species, or assemblage groups of different species, are often used to, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, reconstruct past (sub)surface-water conditions of the world's oceans and seas. Until now, little information has been available on the surface sediment distribution patterns and paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential of coccolith, calcareous dinoflagellate cyst and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages of the South and equatorial Atlantic, especially at the species level. This paper (i) summarizes the distributions of these three phytoplanktonic microfossil groups in numerous Atlantic surface sediments from 20°N-50°S and 30°E-65°W and determines their relationship with the physicochemical and trophic conditions of the overlying (sub)surface-waters, and (ii) determines the synecology of the three phytoplankton groups by carrying out statistical analyses (i.e. detrended and canonical correspondence analyses) on all groups simultaneously. Ecological relationships are additionally strengthened by statistically comparing the distribution patterns of the phytoplankton groups with those of planktonic foraminifera (Pflaumann et al. 1996; Niebler et al. 1998), as the ecological preferences of the latter are much better known. Many of the analyzed phytoplanktonic microfossil species or groups of species in the surface sediments do show restricted distributions which primarily reflect the environmental conditions of the upper water masses above them (e.g. sea-surface temperature, productivity, stratification). The acquired 'reference' data sets are large and diverse enough to allow future development of transfer functions for the reconstruction of past surface-water conditions, and show that there is still an enormous paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential concealed in many fossil coccolith and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages.

(Table 1) Sample locations and clay mineral data of sediment surface samples from the Barents Sea region

A new surface sediment sample set gained in the western Barents Sea by the MAREANO program has been analysed for basic clay mineral assemblages. Distribution maps including additional samples from earlier German research cruises to and off Svalbard are compiled. Some trends in the clay mineral assemblages are related to the sub-Barents Sea geology because the Quaternary sediment cover is rather thin. Additionally, land masses like Svalbard and northern Scandinavia dominate the clay mineral signal with their erosional products. Dense bottom water, very often of brine origin, that flows within deep troughs, such as the Storfjorden or Bear Island Trough, transport the clay mineral signal from their origin to the Norwegian-Greenland Sea.

(Table 3) Interannual variability of total mass flux at the deep sediment trap site CBmeso between 1988 and 2006

This article will review major features of the 'giant' Cape Blanc filament off Mauritania with regard to the transport of chlorophyll and organic carbon from the shelf to the open ocean. Within the filament, chlorophyll is transported about 400 km offshore. Modelled particle distributions along a zonal transect at 21°N showed that particles with a sinking velocity of 5 m d**-1 are advected offshore by up to 600 km in subsurface particle clouds generally located between 400 m and 800 m water depth, forming an Intermediate Nepheloid Layer (INL). It corresponds to the depth of the oxygen minimum zone. Heavier particles with a sinking velocity of 30 m d**-1 are transported from the shelf within the Bottom Layer (BL) of more than 1000 m thickness, largely following the topography of the bottom slope. The particles advected within the BL contribute to the enhanced winter-spring mass fluxes collected at the open-ocean mesotrophic sediment trap site CB-13 (200 nm offshore), due to a long distance advection in deeper waters. The lateral contribution to the deep sediment trap in winter-spring is estimated to be 63% and 72% for organic carbon and total mass, respectively, whereas the lateral input for both components on an annual basis is estimated to be in the order of 15%. Biogenic opal increases almost fivefold from the upper to the lower mesotrophic CB-13 trap, also pointing to an additional source for biogenic silica from eutrophic coastal waters. Blooms obviously sink in smaller, probably mesoscale-sized patches with variable settling rates, depending on the type of aggregated particles and their ballast content. Generally, particle sinking rates are exceptionally high off NW Africa. Very high chlorophyll values and a large size of the Cape Blanc filament in 1998-1999 are also documented in enhanced total mass and organic carbon fluxes. An increasing trend in satellite chlorophyll concentrations and the size of the Cape Blanc filament between 1997 and 2008 as observed for other coastal upwelling areas is not documented.

(Table T1) Abundance of radiolarian skeletons in scrape samples of ODP Hole 178-1098B

Palmer Deep is a series of three glacially overdeepened basins on the Antarctic Peninsula shelf, ~20 km southwest of Anvers Island. Site 1098 (64°51.72'S, 64°12.48'W) was drilled in the shallowest basin, Basin I, at 1012 m water depth. The sediment recovered was primarily laminated, siliceous, biogenic, pelagic muds alternating with siliciclastic hemipelagic sediments (Barker, Camerlenghi, Acton, et al., 1999). Sedimentation rates of 0.1725 cm/yr in the upper 25 m and 0.7-0.80 cm/yr in the lower 25 m of the core have been estimated from 14C (Domack et al., 2001). The oldest datable sediments have an age of ~13 ka and were underlain by diamicton sediments of the last glacial maximum (Domack et al., 2001). The large-scale water-mass distribution and circulation in the vicinity of Palmer Deep is dominated by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) below 200 m (Hofmann et al., 1996). Palmer Deep is too far from the coast to be influenced by glacial meltwater and cold-tongue generation associated with it (Domack and Williams, 1990; Dixon and Domack, 1991). Circulation patterns in the Palmer Deep area are not well understood, but evidence suggests southward flow across Palmer Deep from Anvers Island to Renaud Island (Kock and Stein, 1978). The water south of Anvers Island is nearly open with loose pack ice from February through May. The area is covered with sea ice beginning in June (Gloersen et al., 1992; Leventer et al., 1996). Micropaleontologic data from the work of Leventer et al. (1996) on a 9-m piston core has revealed circulation and climate patterns for the past 3700 yr in the Palmer Deep. The benthic foraminifer assemblage is dominated by two taxa, Bulimina aculeata and Bolivina pseudopunctata, which are inversely related. High relative abundances of B. aculeata occur cyclically over a period of ~230 yr. The assemblage associated with high abundance of B. aculeata in Palmer Deep resembles that from the Bellingshausen shelf, which is associated with CDW. In addition to the faunal evidence, hydrographic data indicate incursions of CDW into Palmer Deep (Leventer et al., 1996). A distinctive diatom assemblage dominated by a single genus was associated with peaks in B. aculeata, whereas a few different assemblages were associated with lows in B. aculeata. Leventer et al. (1996) interpreted the variability in diatom assemblages as an indication of changes in productivity associated with changes in water column stability. Abelmann and Gowing (1997) studied the horizontal and vertical distributions of radiolarians in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. They show that the spatial distribution of radiolarian assemblages reflects hydrographic boundaries. In a transect from the subtropical Atlantic to polar Antarctic zones, radiolarians in the upper 1000 m of the water column occurred in distinct surface and deep-living assemblages related to water depth, temperature, salinity, and nutrient content. Living assemblages resembled those preserved in underlying surface sediments (Abelmann and Gowing, 1997). Circumantarctic coastal sediments from neritic environments contained a distinctive assemblage dominated by the Phormacantha hystrix/Plectacantha oikiskos group and Rhizoplegma boreale (Nishimura et al., 1997). Low diversity and species compositions distinguished the coastal sediments from the typical pelagic Antarctic assemblages. Factors that controlled the assemblages were water depth, proximity to the coast, occurrence of sea ice, and steepness of topography, rather than temperature and salinity. Nishimura et al. (1997) found a gradient of sorts from deep-water sites containing diverse assemblages typical of pelagic environments to coastal sites with low diversity assemblages dominated by P. hystrix/P. oikiskos group and R. boreale. In general, sites between these two extremes had increased proportions of the coastal assemblage with decreasing water depth (Nishimura et al., 1997). At a site near Hole 1098 (GC905), they showed that the relative abundance of the coastal assemblage increased downcore (Nishimura et al., 1997). The purpose of the research presented here was to make a cursory investigation into the radiolarian assemblages as possible paleoenvironmental indicators.

ISSP Position Stand: To Sample or to Specialize? Seven Postulates About Youth Sport Activities that Lead to Continued Participation and Elite Performance

A comprehensive approach to sport expertise should consider the entire situation that is comprised of the person, the task, the environment, and the complex interplay of these components (Hackfort, 1986). Accordingly, the Developmental Model of Sport Participation (Côté, Baker, & Abernethy, 2007; Côté & Fraser-Thomas, 2007) provides a comprehensive framework for sport expertise that outlines different pathways of involvement in sport. In pathways one and two, early sampling serves as the foundation for both elite and recreational sport participation. Early sampling is based on two main elements of childhood sport participation: 1) involvement in various sports and 2) participation in deliberate play. In contrast, pathway three shows the course to elite performance through early specialization in one sport. Early specialization implies a focused involvement on one sport and a large number of deliberate practice activities with the goal of improving sport skills and performance during childhood. This paper proposes seven postulates regarding the role that sampling and deliberate play, as opposed to specialization and deliberate practice, can have during childhood in promoting continued participation and elite performance in sport.