Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

Effects of variety and nutrient availability on the acrylamide-forming potential of rye grain

Acrylamide is a probable human carcinogen that forms in plant-derived foods when free asparagine and reducing sugars react at high temperatures. The identification of rye varieties with low acrylamide-forming potential or agronomic conditions that produce raw material with low acrylamide precursor concentrations would reduce the acrylamide formed in baked rye foods without the need for additives or potentially costly changes to processes. This work compared five commercial rye varieties grown under a range of fertilisation regimes to investigate the effects of genotype and nutrient (nitrogen and sulphur) availability on the accumulation of acrylamide precursors. A strong correlation was established between the free asparagine concentration of grain and the acrylamide formed upon heating. The five rye varieties accumulated different concentrations of free asparagine in the grain, indicating that there is genetic control of this trait and that variety selection could be useful in reducing acrylamide levels in rye products. High levels of nitrogen fertilisation were found to increase the accumulation of free asparagine, showing that excessive nitrogen application should be avoided in order not to exacerbate the problem of acrylamide formation. This effect of nitrogen was mitigated in two of the varieties by the application of sulphur.

Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth’s land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar’s landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Proteolysis of milk heated at high temperatures by native enzymes analysed by trinitrobenzene sulphonic acid (TNBS) method

Native enzymes play a significant role in proteolysis of milk during storage. This is significant for heat resistant native enzymes. Plasmin is one of the most heat resistant enzymes found in milk. It has been reported to survive several heat treatments, causing spoilage during storage. The aim of this study was to assess susceptibility of high temperature heated milk to proteolysis by native enzymes. The trinitrobenzene sulphonic acid (TNBS) method was used for this purpose. Raw milk was heated at 110, 120, 130,142°C for 2 s and 85°C for 15 s and milk processed at low temperature (85°C /15s) was selected to mimic pasteurisation. TNBS method confirmed that raw milk and milk processed at 85°C /15s were the most proteolysed, whereas treatment of milk at high temperatures (110, 120, 130 and 142°C for 2 s) inactivated the native enzymes. It may thus be concluded that high temperature processing positively affects proteolysis by lowering its susceptibility to spoilage during storage.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently ‘anomalous’1 increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records2. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation1, 3 or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical4 or boreal sources5, 6. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000–130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era.

Voluntary facial displays of pain increase suffering in response to nociceptive stimulation

This study demonstrates that making a standardized pain face increases negative affect in response to nociceptive stimulation, even in the absence of social feedback. This suggests that exaggerated facial displays of pain, although often socially reinforced, may also have unintended aversive consequences.

Dietary levels of pure flavonoids improve spatial memory performance and increase hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor.

Evidence suggests that flavonoid-rich foods are capable of inducing improvements in memory and cognition in animals and humans. However, there is a lack of clarity concerning whether flavonoids are the causal agents in inducing such behavioral responses. Here we show that supplementation with pure anthocyanins or pure flavanols for 6 weeks, at levels similar to that found in blueberry (2% w/w), results in an enhancement of spatial memory in 18 month old rats. Pure flavanols and pure anthocyanins were observed to induce significant improvements in spatial working memory (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006 respectively), to a similar extent to that following blueberry supplementation (p = 0.002). These behavioral changes were paralleled by increases in hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (R = 0.46, p<0.01), suggesting a common mechanism for the enhancement of memory. However, unlike protein levels of BDNF, the regional enhancement of BDNF mRNA expression in the hippocampus appeared to be predominantly enhanced by anthocyanins. Our data support the claim that flavonoids are likely causal agents in mediating the cognitive effects of flavonoid-rich foods.

Effect of Rht alleles on the tolerance of wheat grain set to high temperature and drought stress during booting and anthesis

Factorial pot experiments were conducted to compare the responses of GA-sensitive and GA-insensitive reduced height (Rht) alleles in wheat for susceptibility to heat and drought stress during booting and anthesis. Grain set (grains/spikelet) of near isogenic lines (NILs) was assessed following three day transfers to controlled environments imposing day temperatures (t) from 20 to 40°C. Transfers were during booting and/or anthesis and pots maintained at field capacity (FC) or had water withheld. Logistic responses (y = c/1+e-b(t -m)) described declining grain set with increasing t, and t5 was that fitted to give a 5% reduction in grain set. Averaged over NIL, t5 for anthesis at FC was 31.7±0.47°C (S.E.M, 26 d.f.). Drought at anthesis reduced t5 by <2°C. Maintaining FC at booting conferred considerable resistance to high temperatures (t5=33.9°C) but booting was particularly heat susceptible without water (t5 =26.5°C). In one background (cv. Mercia), for NILs varying at the Rht-D1 locus, there was progressive reduction in t5 with dwarfing and reduced gibberellic acid (GA) sensitivity (Rht-D1a, tall, 32.7±0.72; Rht-D1b, semi-dwarf, 29.5±0.85; Rht-D1c, severe dwarf, 24.2±0.72). This trend was not evident for the Rht-B1 locus, or for Rht-D1b in an alternative background (Maris Widgeon). The GA-sensitive severe dwarf Rht12 was more heat tolerant (t5=29.4±0.72) than the similarly statured GA-insensitive Rht-D1c. The GA-sensitive, semi-dwarfing Rht8 conferred greater drought tolerance in one experiment. Despite the effects of Rht-D1 alleles in Mercia on stress tolerance, the inconsistency of the effects over background and locus led to the conclusion that semi-dwarfing with GA-insensitivity did not necessarily increase sensitivity to stress at booting and flowering. In comparison to effects of semi-dwarfing alleles, responses to heat stress are much more dramatically affected by water availability and the precise growth stage at which the stress is experienced by the plants.

An oceanic origin for the increase of atmospheric radiocarbon during the Younger Dryas

Variations in carbon-14 to carbon-12 ratio in the atmosphere (Δ14Catm) provide a powerful diagnostic for elucidating the timing and nature of geophysical and anthropological change. The (Atlantic) marine archive suggests a rapid Δ14Catm increase of 50‰ at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal (12.9–11.7 kyr BP), which has not yet been satisfactorily explained in terms of magnitude or causal mechanism, as either a change in ocean ventilation or production rate. Using Earth-system model simulations and comparison of marine-based radiocarbon records from different ocean basins, we demonstrate that the YD Δ14Catm increase is smaller than suggested by the marine archive. This is due to changes in reservoir age, predominantly caused by reduced ocean ventilation.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London

Vegetation and building morphology characteristics are investigated at 19 sites on a north-south LiDAR transect across the megacity of London. Local maxima of mean building height and building plan area density at the city centre are evident. Surprisingly, the mean vegetation height (zv3) is also found to be highest in the city centre. From the LiDAR data various morphological parameters are derived as well as shadow patterns. Continuous images of the effects of buildings and of buildings plus vegetationon sky view factor (Ψ) are derived. A general reduction of Ψ is found, indicating the importance of including vegetation when deriving Ψ in urban areas. The contribution of vegetation to the shadowing at ground level is higher during summer than in autumn. Using these 3D data the influence on urban climate and mean radiant temperature (T mrt ) is calculated with SOLWEIG. The results from these simulations highlight that vegetation can be most effective at reducing heat stress within dense urban environments in summer. The daytime average T mrt is found to be lowest in the densest urban environments due to shadowing; foremost from buildings but also from trees. It is clearly shown that this method could be used to quantify the influence of vegetation on T mrt within the urban environment. The results presented in this paper highlight a number of possible climate sensitive planning practices for urban areas at the local scale (i.e. 102- 5 × 103 m).