London 2012 and Climate Change. Examining the potential impact of the current economic crisis in the environmental legacy of the Games

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) declares environmental protection to be the third dimension of the Olympic movement. That, in effect, means that nations wishing to host the Games have to present themselves as reliable practitioners of environmental sustainability (ES) in their applications. The greening of sports mega-events, and the hosting of Olympic Games in particular, is now reasonably well established. Yet evidence from the first decade of environmentally-conscious Olympics points to diverging patterns of achievement in the operationalisation of the IOC’s ‘third pillar’. As is now common knowledge, for example, Sydney 2000 was the first ‘Green Olympics’ in the history of the Games; yet four years later, Athens provided a stark contrast, and was the subject of highly critical assessment reports by environmental organisations. Yet Athens has not stopped the Bid Committee for the Beijing 2008 Games claiming that it would ‘leave the greatest Olympic Games environmental legacy ever’ (UNEP 2007: 26), while the London 2012 promotes the concept of the ‘One Planet Olympics’.

In this context and in light of the current global economic crisis, can we claim that London 2012 has the capacity to fulfil its environmental ambitions? This question is adopted in continuity with similar framed questions that have been posed in relation to the most recent Olympics and it is tackled by adopting an investigative model that is placed within discourses of ‘reflexive modernisation’.

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

British container breeding mosquitoes: the impact of urbanisation and climate change on community composition and phenology

The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere

Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the 'grand' minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m^-2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea-ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth's climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections.

A forgalomban lévő fásszárú dísznövénytaxonok szárazságtűrésének értékelése a klímaváltozás tükrében (Evaluation of the impact climate change on current drought-tolerant woody plants)

Regionális klímaváltozási forgatókönyvek szerint hazánk éghajlata az elkövetkező 90 évben a mainál jóval melegebb, a nyári évszakban csapadékszegényebb, összességében pedig szárazabb lesz. Kutatásunk célja volt felmérni szárazságtűrésük szerint a legjelentősebb faiskolák katalógusában fellelhető fa- és cserjefajokat (a gyűjtésben nem szerepelnek a faj alatti taxonok). A vizsgálatainkban szereplő öt faiskola növénykínálatát a tudományos nevek ellenőrzése után összesítettük, majd ezt követően az egyes fajokat vízigény szerinti kategóriákba soroltuk. A tényleges statisztikai értékelésbe – a 451 összegyűjtött faj tudományos neveinek ellenőrzése után – 420 fajt vontunk be, melyek 20%-a vízigényes, 53%-a közepesen vízigényes és 27%-a szárazságtűrő. Várakozásainkkal ellentétben a vízigényes fajok részaránya kevésnek mondható, ugyanakkor a szárazságtűrő fajok magasabb aránya kívánatos lenne. Ezért, a gyakorlati alkalmazást elősegítve, kiemeltünk olyan nemzetségeket, melyek kereskedelmi forgalmazását meg kellene kezdeni vagy fokozni, mint pl a Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca Zanthoxylum, Zelkova, illetve olyanokat, melyek telepítését a jövőben nem, vagy csak kellő körültekintéssel javasoljuk, mint például a Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron nemzetségek. _____ According to regional climate change scenarios, the climate in Hungary will be warmer. Less precipitation is predicted in the summer seasons so, on the whole, it will be drier over the next 90 years. Our research attempted to survey the ornamental plant species in the most important nurseries in Hungary, in terms of their drought tolerance. The intraspecifi c taxa are not included. The plant assortment of the fi ve nurseries was merged after researching their scientifi c names. We then categorized species to 3 groups of drought tolerance. Out of 451 species, 420 of them were used in the statistical research. 20% of them were water demanding, 53% were medium drought tolerant and 27% were drought tolerant. In contrast to our initial expectation, the proportion of water demanding species was not too high. Nevertheless, the proportion of drought tolerant species should have been greater. We classifi ed the genera to assist in practical application. The trade of some of these species, such as Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca, Zanthoxylum, Zelkova should be initiated or increased in the future. Other species, especially Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron are not recommended due to either their drought intolerance or their high maintenance requirement.