Criação de clusters de clientes de um banco através do self-organizing maps hierárquico: comparação entre HSOM e SOM

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Public funding of higher education: who gains, who loses?

This paper analyses the effects of public funding of higher education on the welfare of the different agents. It takes into account the hierarchical nature of the educational system and also the fact that parents always have the possibility to complement basic public education with private expenditures in individual tutoring. It is obtained that although public funding implies a larger access to higher education it is always the case that some of the agents that gain access lose in welfare terms. Moreover, it is shown that the marginal agent to access university would always prefer a pure private funding system. Thus, when studying the effects of public funding of higher education, we can not identify gaining access to University with an increase in welfare. Finally, I consider a funding system where only those that send their o¤spring to university support the funding of higher education.

A system’s approach to cache hierarchy-aware decomposition of data-parallel computations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Study of the electromyographic signal dynamic behavior in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor neurons degeneration, which reduces muscular force, being very difficult to diagnose. Mathematical methods are used in order to analyze the surface electromiographic signal’s dynamic behavior (Fractal Dimension (FD) and Multiscale Entropy (MSE)), evaluate different muscle group’s synchronization (Coherence and Phase Locking Factor (PLF)) and to evaluate the signal’s complexity (Lempel-Ziv (LZ) techniques and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA)). Surface electromiographic signal acquisitions were performed in upper limb muscles, being the analysis executed for instants of contraction for ipsilateral acquisitions for patients and control groups. Results from LZ, DFA and MSE analysis present capability to distinguish between the patient group and the control group, whereas coherence, PLF and FD algorithms present results very similar for both groups. LZ, DFA and MSE algorithms appear then to be a good measure of corticospinal pathways integrity. A classification algorithm was applied to the results in combination with extracted features from the surface electromiographic signal, with an accuracy percentage higher than 70% for 118 combinations for at least one classifier. The classification results demonstrate capability to distinguish members between patients and control groups. These results can demonstrate a major importance in the disease diagnose, once surface electromyography (sEMG) may be used as an auxiliary diagnose method.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

O dever de obediência a ordens ilegais na Guarda Nacional Republicana

The Republican National Guard (GNR) is a military structure and hierarchical force where discipline and obedience is a serious matter, but at the same time, the scope of its activity relates to the protection of the rights, freedoms and guarantees of citizens and the primacy of public interest. While security force, GNR ensures democratic law, guarantee the internal security and the rights of citizens. The controversial issue that lies at the heart of this work its related with the balance between the hierarchy and the written law. The hierarchy, also established by law, with given powers, exist to apply the law. However, the rule of law has exceptions. Which institute to prioritize, hierarchy or the law. And within the law, its rules or the exceptions. Who decides? The GNR's officers have to obey the laws and regulations and comply with the accuracy and timeliness determinations, orders and instructions issued by a superior, given in terms of service, as long as does not involve the practice of crime. The GNR´s officer with command tasks exercises power of authority inherent in these functions, and the corresponding disciplinary authority, being responsible for acts by himself or by his order are practiced. Identify situations of exception to law enforcement, the situations in which one must obey illegal orders, is difficult and thankless, it requires conferred authority and raises the weight of responsibility for decisions and orders issued.

Cumprimento de ordens, obediência hierárquica e disciplina militar versus perpetração (in)voluntária de crimes

Following orders, hierarchical obedience and military discipline are essential values for the survival of the armed forces. Without them, it is not possible to conceive the armed forces as an essential pillar of a democratic state of law and a guarantor of national independence. As issuing orders as well as receiving and following them are inextricably linked to military discipline, and as such injunctions entail the workings of a particular obedience regime within the specific kind of organized power framework which is the Armed Forces, only by analysing the importance of such orders within this microcosm – with its strict hierarchical structure – will it be possible to understand which criminal judicial qualification to ascribe to the individual at the rear by reference to the role of the front line individual (i.e. the one who issues an order vs the one who executes it). That is, of course, when we are faced with the practice of unlawful acts, keeping in mind the organizational framework and its influence over the will of the executor. One thing we take as read, if the orders can be described as unlawful, the boundary line of the duty of obedience, which cannot be overstepped, both because of a legal as well as a constitutional imperative, will have been crossed. And the military have sworn an oath of obedience to the fundamental law. The topic of hierarchical obedience cannot be separated from the analysis of current legislation which pertains to the topic within military institutions. With that in mind, it appeared relevant to address the major norms which regulate the matter within the Portuguese military legal system, and, whenever necessary and required by the reality under analysis, to relate that to civilian law or legal doctrine.

Inventário de Medos III : Avaliação das qualidades psicométricas em uma amostra portuguesa

Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as qualidades psicométricas do Fear Survey Schedule-III, em uma amostra portuguesa. Participaram 1.980 sujeitos selecionados por conveniência a partir de uma população adulta normativa. As idades dos participantes estavam compreendidas entre os 18 e os 80 anos (M = 39,5, DP = 8,5), sendo 59% do sexo feminino. As qualidades psicométricas da escala foram avaliadas em suas facetas de sensibilidade psicométrica, validade de construto e confi abilidade. A validade externa de construto foi avaliada com análise multigrupos em amostra aleatória e independente da amostra de validação inicial. O modelo fatorial original proposto apresentou um ajustamento inaceitável à amostra de validação. Procedeu-se ao refi namento do modelo de medida em uma parte da amostra, selecionada aleatoriamente. Em conclusão, o modelo de medida simplifi cado apresentou uma boa qualidade de ajustamento fatorial e foi invariante em uma segunda amostra independente da primeira. Propôs-se uma nova estrutura hierárquica, com fator de 2ª ordem designado por “Medos”, que revelou boas qualidades psicométricas (sensibilidade, validade de construto e confi abilidade).

Da sobrevivência física à sobrevivência mental : aspectos do funcionamento psíquico em ex-combatentes da guerra colonial portuguesa

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Fractional state space analysis of economic systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Relatório de estágio curricular no Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros

The following report reflects a five-month internship in the Department of Legal Affairs of the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from 4 August to 30 December 2014. This report mainly had as a basis the knowledge from the Administrative Law, Procedural Administrative Law, Labour Law, Special Labour Law and Social Law classes. Thus, it was possible to experience procedural administrative phases, such as the hierarchical appeal, the impugnation of public tender, witness hearing, among others. Apart from these, it was possible to collaborate on the elaboration of a Handbook of Good Practices of Administrative Law and to receive training on Public Procurement.

Relatório de estágio no departamento central de investigação e acção penal

The means of obtaining evidence, the amount of evidence obtained, the number of defendants related to each criminal case and the gravity of the crimes for which the magistrates of the Department are holders of penal action, define its real importance to the Rule of Law. I have deeply studied the subject of the institution of hierarchical intervention required by the assistant and the application of an opening statement by the defendant, starting from a hypothetical case, provided when the query of an investigation with the subject of the crime of active corruption, where this institution was called as a reaction to the archiving dispatch delivered by the Public Ministry. I have study about the implementation of the institution of provisional suspension of the process, specifically in the scope of fiscal criminality, analyzing the effective satisfaction of the purposes of the sentences in two slopes: general prevention and special prevention. I went for my first time to a Central Court of Criminal Instruction, where I attended the measures of inquiry and instructive debate of a process that culminated with the prosecution and pronunciation of the defendants. In addition to this criminal experience, I have deepened and consolidated the academic knowledge with the study of various criminal cases from various fields in the scope of criminality investigated by the Department. I could therefore check the basis of procedural delays, regarding to our legal system, especially in this type of crime, raising issues that I analyzed and discussed, always in a critical and academic way. I had the opportunity to attend and witness a seminar in the Lisbon Directorate of Finance as well of entering the Centre for Judicial Studies to attend a conference on the International Anti-Corruption Day. Focus on the investigatory importance of the international judicial cooperation, through the various organs, with special interest to EUROJUST. I comprehended the organization and functioning of these communitarian organs and means of communication of procedural acts, in particular, the rogatory letters and european arrest warrants. This involvement is motivated by the moratorium factor of the investigations where rogatory letters are necessary for the acquisition of evidence or information relevant to the good continuation of the process. For this reason the judicial cooperation through the relevant communitarian organs, translates a streamlined response between the competent judicial authorities of the Member States, through the National Member that integrates EUROJUST. This report aims to highlight some of the difficulties and procedural issues that Public Prosecutors of DCIAP and criminal police bodies that assist them, face in combating violent and organized crime, of national and transnational nature, of particular complexity, according to the specifics of criminal types.

Practice variations in the production of health

This study investigates three questions related to medical practice variation. First, it tests whether average length of stay across Portuguese National Health Service hospitals varies when controlling for differences in patients’ characteristics. Second, it looks at hospital-level characteristics in order to find out whether these are able to explain differences in average length of stay across hospitals. Finally, it proposes a best practice average length of stay for each of the six episodes of care analyzed. To perform the analysis, administrative data from the Diagnosis-Related groups’ data set for the year of 2012 was used. A replication of a hierarchical two-stage model with hospital fixed effects was carried out. The results show that after taking patients’ characteristics into account, variation in average length of stay across hospitals exists. This variation cannot be explained by hospital-level characteristics.

How servant leadership is perceiver by leaders and followers in a Portuguese organizational context

Servant leadership theory has been the subject of great academic discussion, namely in what concerns reaching a consensus for its definition. As many frameworks have been designed in order to define the servant leader’s characteristics, we based ourselves in van Dierendonck’s review and synthesis on servant leadership (2011) to assess how it is perceived in a Portuguese organizational context. After performing several interviews in a private health care organization, we conclude that the perception of servant leadership is generally positive and that its characteristics seem to be in line with academic literature. However, some issues arose such as a seemingly lack of relevance given to authenticity and humility, the latter being a unique attribute of servant leadership. Also, we found a discrepancy between hierarchical levels’ perception of servant leadership characteristics as well as questioning if an over emphasis on service can diminish the servant leader’s impact on organizational performance.

Cumprimento de ordens, obediência hierárquica e disciplina militar versus perpetração (in)voluntária de crimes

Following orders, hierarchical obedience and military discipline are essential values for the survival of the armed forces. Without them, it is not possible to conceive the armed forces as an essential pillar of a democratic state of law and a guarantor of national independence. As issuing orders as well as receiving and following them are inextricably linked to military discipline, and as such injunctions entail the workings of a particular obedience regime within the specific kind of organized power framework which is the Armed Forces, only by analysing the importance of such orders within this microcosm – with its strict hierarchical structure – will it be possible to understand which criminal judicial qualification to ascribe to the individual at the rear by reference to the role of the front line individual (i.e. the one who issues an order vs the one who executes it). That is, of course, when we are faced with the practice of unlawful acts, keeping in mind the organizational framework and its influence over the will of the executor. One thing we take as read, if the orders can be described as unlawful, the boundary line of the duty of obedience, which cannot be overstepped, both because of a legal as well as a constitutional imperative, will have been crossed. And the military have sworn an oath of obedience to the fundamental law. The topic of hierarchical obedience cannot be separated from the analysis of current legislation which pertains to the topic within military institutions. With that in mind, it appeared relevant to address the major norms which regulate the matter within the Portuguese military legal system, and, whenever necessary and required by the reality under analysis, to relate that to civilian law or legal doctrine.