Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Steady state and dynamic modelling of nitrogen in the River Kennet: impacts of land use change since the 1930s

Steady state and dynamic models have been developed and applied to the River Kennet system. Annual nitrogen exports from the land surface to the river have been estimated based on land use from the 1930s and the 1990s. Long term modelled trends indicate that there has been a large increase in nitrogen transport into the river system driven by increased fertiliser application associated with increased cereal production, increased population and increased livestock levels. The dynamic model INCA Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments. has been applied to simulate the day-to-day transport of N from the terrestrial ecosystem to the riverine environment. This process-based model generates spatial and temporal data and reproduces the observed instream concentrations. Applying the model to current land use and 1930s land use indicates that there has been a major shift in the short term dynamics since the 1930s, with increased river and groundwater concentrations caused by both non-point source pollution from agriculture and point source discharges. �

Nanoscale zerovalent iron alters soil bacterial community structure and inhibits chloroaromatic biodegradation potential in Aroclor 1242-contaminated soil

Nanoscale zerovalent iron (nZVI) has potential for the remediation of organochlorine-contaminated environments. Environmental safety concerns associated with in situ deployment of nZVI include potential negative impacts on indigenous microbes whose biodegradative functions could contribute to contaminant remediation. With respect to a two-step polychlorinated biphenyl remediation scenario comprising nZVI dechlorination followed by aerobic biodegradation, we examined the effect of polyacrylic acid (PAA)-coated nZVI (mean diameter = 12.5 nm) applied at 10 g nZVI kg−1 to Aroclor-1242 contaminated and uncontaminated soil over 28 days. nZVI had a limited effect on Aroclor congener profiles, but, either directly or indirectly via changes to soil physico-chemical conditions (pH, Eh), nZVI addition caused perturbation to soil bacterial community composition, and reduced the activity of chloroaromatic mineralizing microorganisms. We conclude that nZVI addition has the potential to inhibit microbial functions that could be important for PCB remediation strategies combining nZVI treatment and biodegradation.

The market in freehold land, 1300-1509: the evidence of feet of fines

This article provides time series data on the medieval market in freehold land, including the changing social composition of freeholders, level of market activity, size and complexity of landholdings, and shifts in the market value of land. These are subjects hitherto largely ignored due, in part, to the disparate nature of the evidence. It argues that feet of fines, despite archival limitations, if employed with care and an understanding of the underlying changes in the common law of real property, are capable of providing quantifiable evidence spanning hundreds of years and comparable across large areas of England.

Growth of Salmonella enteritidis in artificially contaminated eggs: the effects of inoculum size and suspending media

Growth profiles of two isolates of Salmonella enteritidis phage type (PT) 4 inoculated into either the albumen of whole shell eggs or into separated albumen were found to be markedly affected by the size of the inoculum and the composition of the medium used to suspend the cells prior to inoculation. Using our model with an inoculum of two cells, multiplication of the Salmonella was not seen in 93% of eggs held at 20 degreesC for 8 days. In approximately 7% of eggs, however, growth occurred during the 8 days of storage. If the inoculum equaled or exceeded 25 cells per egg when eggs were subsequently stored at 20 degreesC, or 250 cells per egg when eggs were stored at 30 degreesC, high levels of growth of Salmonella in the egg occurred significantly more frequently than when the inoculum was two cells. High levels of growth were also seen more frequently if the inoculum was suspended in buffered peptone water or maximal recovery diluent rather than in phosphate buffered saline. Growth of Salmonella in separated albumen occurred very infrequently (1.1% of samples) at low inoculum levels and did not become significant until the inoculum was 250 cells or greater. Growth in the albumen was unaffected by the composition of the suspending medium. Provided that the inoculum was approximately 2 cells per egg and the bacteria were suspended in PBS, observed growth profiles of S. enteritidis inoculated into the albumen of whole eggs resembled those in naturally contaminated eggs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Investigation of the effects of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB) on land prices are restricted by a lack of good land market data. However, undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a data set that enables exploration of the impact of its UGB. Estimation can take account of endogeneity issues, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. OLS and instrumental variable estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003 but did not rise much outside of it.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.

Coming to grips with 'abandoned arable' land in efforts to enhance communal grazing systems in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa

The communal lands of the Eastern Cape have been regarded as both tools and problems by policy-makers. In particular, communal lands are problematised as environmentally degraded, of suboptimum productivity and constraining economic development. The Eastern Cape Communal Lands Research Project was framed within this policy discourse with the aim of introducing legume-based pasture into ‘abandoned arable lands’. Initial results from community workshops show that the institutional arrangements for these arable lands vary widely and, with them, the capacity to utilise any new technology that may have application to them. Rather than simply draw on social capital, if a participatory research approach is to enhance the agency of the participating communites, it may need to contribute to social capital building and especially to create a dialogical space in which the matters being researched can be discussed meaningfully.

Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.