Proceedings of the Indian Ocean Conference: Forging Unity: Coastal Communities and the Indian Ocean's Future

This is the proceedings of the Indian Ocean Conference "Forging Unity: Coastal Communities and the Indian Ocean's Future". It contains papers, presentations and vision statement of the conference.

Nigerian German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project - approach, result, future

The paper highlighted the overall goal and purpose of the Nigerian German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project. The main goal is to increase the standard of living of fishing communities in the project area. The target groups are the fishermen and fisherwomen in the area. The project also developed in effective extension delivery system in the basin. Also developed at the project headquarters are facilities for the execution of the project. The project are able to carry out frame, gear and stock assessment surveys on the Lake and able to formulate a fisheries management plan for the fisheries of Kainji Lake

Sea-level rise in Hawaii: Implications for future shoreline locations and Hawaii coastal management

Management of coastal development in Hawaii is based on the location of the certified shoreline, which is representative of the upper limit of marine inundation within the last several years. Though the certified shoreline location is significantly more variable than long-term erosion indicators, its migration will still follow the coastline's general trend. The long-term migration of Hawaii’s coasts will be significantly controlled by rising sea level. However, land use decisions adjacent to the shoreline and the shape and nature of the nearshore environment are also important controls to coastal migration. Though each of the islands has experienced local sea-level rise over the course of the last century, there are still locations across the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, which show long- term accretion or anomalously high erosion rates relative to their regions. As a result, engineering rules of thumb such as the Brunn rule do not always predict coastal migration and beach profile equilibrium in Hawaii. With coastlines facing all points of the compass rose, anthropogenic alteration of the coasts, complex coastal environments such as coral reefs, and the limited capacity to predict coastal change, Hawaii will require a more robust suite of proactive coastal management policies to weather future changes to its coastline. Continuing to use the current certified shoreline, adopting more stringent coastal setback rules similar to Kauai County, adding realistic sea-level rise components for all types of coastal planning, and developing regional beach management plans are some of the recommended adaptation strategies for Hawaii. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Habitat enhancing marine structures: Creating habitat in urban waters

Although maritime regions support a large portion of the world’s human population, their value as habitat for other species is overlooked. Urban structures that are built in the marine environment are not designed or managed for the habitat they provide, and are built without considering the communities of marine organisms that could colonize them (Clynick et al., 2008). However, the urban waterfront may be capable of supporting a significant proportion of regional aquatic biodiversity (Duffy-Anderson et al., 2003). While urban shorelines will never return to their original condition, some scientists think that the habitat quality of urban waterfronts could be significantly improved through further research and some design modifications, and that many opportunities exist to make these modifications (Russel et al., 1983, Goff, 2008). Habitat enhancing marine structures (or HEMS) are a potentially promising approach to address the impact of cities on marine organisms including habitat fragmentation and degradation. HEMS are a type of habitat improvement project that are ecologically engineered to improve the habitat quality of urban marine structures such as bulkheads and docks for marine organisms. More specifically, HEMS attempt to improve or enhance the physical habitat that organisms depend on for survival in the inter- and sub-tidal waterfronts of densely populated areas. HEMS projects are targeted at areas where human-made structures cannot be significantly altered or removed. While these techniques can be used in suburban or rural areas restoration or removal is preferred in these settings, and HEMS are resorted to only if removal of the human-made structure is not an option. Recent research supports the use of HEMS projects. Researchers have examined the communities found on urban structures including docks, bulkheads, and breakwaters. Complete community shifts have been observed where the natural shoreline was sandy, silty, or muddy. There is also evidence of declines in community composition, ecosystem functioning, and increases in non-native species abundances in assemblages on urban marine structures. Researchers have identified two key differences between these substrates including the slope (seawalls are vertical; rocky shores contain multiple slopes) and microhabitat availability (seawalls have very little; rocky shores contain many different types). In response, researchers have suggested designing and building seawalls with gentler slopes or a combination of horizontal and vertical surfaces. Researchers have also suggested incorporating microhabitat, including cavities designed to retain water during low tide, crevices, and other analogous features (Chapman, 2003; Moreira et al., 2006) (PDF contains 4 pages)

Local solutions to local problems: A stormwater education collaborative

Currently completing its fifth year, the Coastal Waccamaw Stormwater Education Consortium (CWSEC) helps northeastern South Carolina communities meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Phase II permit requirements for Minimum Control Measure 1 - Public Education and Outreach - and Minimum Control Measure 2 - Public Involvement. Coordinated by Coastal Carolina University, six regional organizations serve as core education providers to eight coastal localities including six towns and cities and two large counties. CWSEC recently finished a needs assessment to begin the process of strategizing for the second NPDES Phase II 5-year permit cycle in order to continue to develop and implement effective, results-oriented stormwater education and outreach programs to meet federal requirements and satisfy local environmental and economic needs. From its conception in May 2004, CWSEC set out to fulfill new federal Clean Water Act requirements associated with the NPDES Phase II Stormwater Program. Six small municipal separate storm sewer systems (MS4s) located within the Myrtle Beach Urbanized Area endorsed a coordinated approach to regional stormwater education, and participated in a needs assessment resulting in a Regional Stormwater Education Strategy and a Phased Education Work Plan. In 2005, CWSEC was formally established and the CWSEC’s Coordinator was hired. The Coordinator, who is also the Environmental Educator at Coastal Carolina University’s Waccamaw Watershed Academy, organizes six regional agencies who serve as core education providers for eight coastal communities. The six regional agencies working as core education providers to the member MS4s include Clemson Public Service and Carolina Clear Program, Coastal Carolina University’s Waccamaw Watershed Academy, Murrells Inlet 2020, North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training and Public Education Programs, South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium, and Winyah Rivers Foundation’s Waccamaw Riverkeeper®. CWSEC’s organizational structure results in a synergy among the education providers, achieving greater productivity than if each provider worked separately. The member small MS4s include City of Conway, City of North Myrtle Beach, City of Myrtle Beach, Georgetown County, Horry County, Town of Atlantic Beach, Town of Briarcliffe Acres, and Town of Surfside Beach. Each MS4 contributes a modest annual fee toward the salary of the Coordinator and operational costs. (PDF contains 3 pages)

The Coastal Barrier Island Network (CBIN): Future management strategies for barrier islands

Barrier islands are ecosystems that border coastal shorelines and form a protective barrier between continental shorelines and the wave action originating offshore. In addition to forming and maintaining an array of coastal and estuarine habitats of ecological and economic importance, barrier island coastlines also include some of the greatest concentrations of human populations and accompanying anthropogenic development in the world. These islands have an extremely dynamic nature whereby major changes in geomorphology and hydrology can occur over short time periods (i.e. days, hours) in response to extreme episodic storm events such as hurricanes and northeasters. The native vegetation and geological stability of these ecosystems are tightly coupled with one another and are vulnerable to storm-related erosion events, particularly when also disturbed by anthropogenic development. (PDF contains 4 pages)

A short training program improves the accuracy of portion-size estimates in future dietitians

[EN] The objective of this study was to determine whether a short training program, using real foods, would decreased their portion-size estimation errors after training. 90 student volunteers (20.18±0.44 y old) of the University of the Basque Country (Spain) were trained in observational techniques and tested in food-weight estimation during and after a 3-hour training period. The program included 57 commonly consumed foods that represent a variety of forms (125 different shapes). Estimates of food weight were compared with actual weights. Effectiveness of training was determined by examining change in the absolute percentage error for all observers and over all foods over time. Data were analyzed using SPSS vs. 13.0. The portion-size errors decreased after training for most of the foods. Additionally, the accuracy of their estimates clearly varies by food group and forms. Amorphous was the food type estimated least accurately both before and after training. Our findings suggest that future dietitians can be trained to estimate quantities by direct observation across a wide range of foods. However this training may have been too brief for participants to fully assimilate the application.

Lightweight deformable mirrors for future space telescopes

This thesis presents a concept for ultra-lightweight deformable mirrors based on a thin substrate of optical surface quality coated with continuous active piezopolymer layers that provide modes of actuation and shape correction. This concept eliminates any kind of stiff backing structure for the mirror surface and exploits micro-fabrication technologies to provide a tight integration of the active materials into the mirror structure, to avoid actuator print-through effects. Proof-of-concept, 10-cm-diameter mirrors with a low areal density of about 0.5 kg/m² have been designed, built and tested to measure their shape-correction performance and verify the models used for design. The low cost manufacturing scheme uses replication techniques, and strives for minimizing residual stresses that deviate the optical figure from the master mandrel. It does not require precision tolerancing, is lightweight, and is therefore potentially scalable to larger diameters for use in large, modular space telescopes. Other potential applications for such a laminate could include ground-based mirrors for solar energy collection, adaptive optics for atmospheric turbulence, laser communications, and other shape control applications.

The immediate application for these mirrors is for the Autonomous Assembly and Reconfiguration of a Space Telescope (AAReST) mission, which is a university mission under development by Caltech, the University of Surrey, and JPL. The design concept, fabrication methodology, material behaviors and measurements, mirror modeling, mounting and control electronics design, shape control experiments, predictive performance analysis, and remaining challenges are presented herein. The experiments have validated numerical models of the mirror, and the mirror models have been used within a model of the telescope in order to predict the optical performance. A demonstration of this mirror concept, along with other new telescope technologies, is planned to take place during the AAReST mission.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions

4 p.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.