Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Symptoms of heat illness in surface mine workers

Objective: To assess the symptoms of heat illness experienced by surface mine workers. Methods: Ninety-one surface mine workers across three mine sites in northern Australia completed a heat stress questionnaire evaluating their symptoms for heat illness. A cohort of 56 underground mine workers also participated for comparative purposes. Participants were allocated into asymptomatic, minor or moderate heat illness categories depending on the number of symptoms they reported. Participants also reported the frequency of symptom experience, as well as their hydration status (average urine colour). Results: Heat illness symptoms were experienced by 87 and 79 % of surface and underground mine workers, respectively (p = 0.189), with 81–82 % of the symptoms reported being experienced by miners on more than one occasion. The majority (56 %) of surface workers were classified as experiencing minor heat illness symptoms, with a further 31 % classed as moderate; 13 % were asymptomatic. A similar distribution of heat illness classification was observed among underground miners (p = 0.420). Only 29 % of surface miners were considered well hydrated, with 61 % minimally dehydrated and 10 % significantly dehydrated, proportions that were similar among underground miners (p = 0.186). Heat illness category was significantly related to hydration status (p = 0.039) among surface mine workers, but only a trend was observed when data from surface and underground miners was pooled (p = 0.073). Compared to asymptomatic surface mine workers, the relative risk of experiencing minor and moderate symptoms of heat illness was 1.5 and 1.6, respectively, when minimally dehydrated. Conclusions: These findings show that surface mine workers routinely experience symptoms of heat illness and highlight that control measures are required to prevent symptoms progressing to medical cases of heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

Expression and distribution of cell-surface proteoglycans in the normal Lewis rat molar periodontium

Cell-surface proteoglycans participate in several biological functions such as cell cell and cell-matrix interactions, cell adhesion, the binding to various growth factors as co-receptors and repair. To understand better the expression and distribution of cell-surface proteoglycans in the periodontal tissues, an immunohistochemical evaluation of the normal Lewis rat molar periodontium using panels of antibodies for syndecan-1, -2, -4, glypican and betaglycan was carried out. Our results demonstrated the expression and distribution of all proteoglycans in the suprabasal gingival epithelium, soft and hard connective tissues. Both cellular and matrix localization was evident within the various periodontal compartments. The presence of these cell-surface proteoglycans indicates the potential for roles in the process of tissue homeostasis, repair or regeneration in periodontium of which each function requires further study.

Differential expression and distribution of syndecan-1 and -2 in periodontal wound healing of the rat

Cell-surface proteoglycans participate in several biological functions including interactions with adhesion molecules, growth factors and a variety of other effector molecules. Accordingly, these molecules play a central role in various aspects of cell–cell and cell–matrix interactions. To investigate the expression and distribution of the cell surface proteoglycans, syndecan-1 and -2, during periodontal wound healing, immunohistochemical analyses were carried out using monoclonal antibodies against syndecan-1, or -2 core proteins. Both syndecan-1 and -2 were expressed and distributed differentially at various stages of early inflammatory cell infiltration, granulation tissue formation, and tissue remodeling in periodontal wound healing. Expression of syndecan-1 was noted in inflammatory cells within and around the fibrin clots during the earliest stages of inflammatory cell infiltration. During granulation tissue formation it was noted in fibroblast-like cells and newly formed blood vessels. Syndecan-1 was not seen in newly formed bone or cementum matrix at any of the time periods studied. Syndecan-1 expression was generally less during the late stages of wound healing but was markedly expressed in cells that were close to the repairing junctional epithelium. In contrast, syndecan-2 expression and distribution was not evident at the early stages of inflammatory cell infiltration. During the formation of granulation tissue and subsequent tissue remodeling, syndecan-2 was expressed extracellularly in the newly formed fibrils which were oriented toward the root surface. Syndecan-2 was found to be significantly expressed on cells that were close to the root surface and within the matrix of repaired cementum covering root dentin as well as at the alveolar bone edge. These findings indicate that syndecan-1 and -2 may have distinctive functions during wound healing of the periodontium. The appearance of syndecan-1 may involve both cell–cell and cell–matrix interactions, while syndecan-2 showed a predilection to associate with cell–matrix interactions during hard tissue formation.

Pregnancy losses in young Australian women : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined recognized pregnancy losses in a general population. Data from an Australian cohort study provide an opportunity to quantify this aspect of fecundity at a population level. METHOD: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 28-33 years in 2006 (n = 9,145) completed up to 4 mailed surveys over 10 years. Participants were categorized according to the recognized outcome of their pregnancies, including live birth, miscarriage/stillbirth, termination/ectopic, or no pregnancy. RESULTS: At age 18-23, more women reported terminations (7%) than miscarriages (4%). By 28-33 years, the cumulative frequency of miscarriage (15%) was as common as termination (16%). For women aged 28-33 years who had ever been pregnant (n = 5,343), pregnancy outcomes were as follows: birth only (50%); loss only (18%); and birth and loss (32%), of which half (16%) were birth and miscarriage. A comparison between first miscarriage and first birth (no miscarriage) showed that most first miscarriages occurred in women aged 18-23 years who also reported a first birth at the same survey (15%). Half (51%) of all first births and first miscarriages in women aged 18-19 ended in miscarriage. Early childbearers (<28 years) often had miscarriages around the same time period as their first live birth, suggesting proactive family formation. Delayed childbearers (32-33 years) had more first births than first miscarriages. CONCLUSION: Recognized pregnancy losses are an important measure of fecundity in the general population because they indicate successful conception and maintenance of pregnancy to varying reproductive endpoints.

Beat phenomena in metal nanowires, and their implications for resonance-based elastic property measurements

The elastic properties of 1D nanostructures such as nanowires are often measured experimentally through actuation of the nanowire at its resonance frequency, and then relating the resonance frequency to the elastic stiffness using elementary beam theory. In the present work, we utilize large scale molecular dynamics simulations to report a novel beat phenomenon in [110]oriented Ag nanowires. The beat phenomenon is found to arise from the asymmetry of the lattice spacing in the orthogonal elementary directions of the [110] nanowire, i.e. the [-110] and [001] directions, which results in two different principal moments of inertia. Because of this, actuations imposed along any other direction are found to decompose into two orthogonal vibrational components based on the actuation angle relative to these two elementary directions, with this phenomenon being generalizable to <110> FCC nanowires of different materials (Cu, Au, Ni, Pd and Pt). The beat phenomenon is explained using a discrete moment of inertia model based on the hard sphere assumption, the model is utilized to show that surface effects enhance the beat phenomenon, while the effect is reduced with increasing nanowires cross-sectional size or aspect ratio. Most importantly, due to the existence of the beat phenomena, we demonstrate that in resonance experiments only a single frequency component is expected to be observed, particularly when the damping ratio is relatively large or very small. Furthermore, for a large range of actuation angles, the lower frequency is more likely to be detected than the higher one, which implies that experimental predictions of Young’s modulus obtained from resonance may in fact be under predictions. The present study therefore has significant implications for experimental interpretations of Young’s modulus as obtained via resonance testing.

Dual-frequency decoupling for two distinct antennas

Constant development of new wireless standards increases the demand for more radiating elements in compact end-user platforms. A decrease in antenna separation gives rise to increased antenna coupling, resulting in a reduction of the signal-to-interference-plus-noise-ratio (SINR) between transmitter and receiver. This paper proposes a decoupling network which provides dual band port isolation for a pair of distinct antennas. A prototype has been fabricated to verify the theory.

Development of a food frequency questionnaire for Sri Lankan adults

Abstract (provisional) Background Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) are commonly used in epidemiologic studies to assess long-term nutritional exposure. Because of wide variations in dietary habits in different countries, a FFQ must be developed to suit the specific population. Sri Lanka is undergoing nutritional transition and diet-related chronic diseases are emerging as an important health problem. Currently, no FFQ has been developed for Sri Lankan adults. In this study, we developed a FFQ to assess the regular dietary intake of Sri Lankan adults. Methods A nationally representative sample of 600 adults was selected by a multi-stage random cluster sampling technique and dietary intake was assessed by random 24-h dietary recall. Nutrient analysis of the FFQ required the selection of foods, development of recipes and application of these to cooked foods to develop a nutrient database. We constructed a comprehensive food list with the units of measurement. A stepwise regression method was used to identify foods contributing to a cumulative 90% of variance to total energy and macronutrients. In addition, a series of photographs were included. Results We obtained dietary data from 482 participants and 312 different food items were recorded. Nutritionists grouped similar food items which resulted in a total of 178 items. After performing step-wise multiple regression, 93 foods explained 90% of the variance for total energy intake, carbohydrates, protein, total fat and dietary fibre. Finally, 90 food items and 12 photographs were selected. Conclusion We developed a FFQ and the related nutrient composition database for Sri Lankan adults. Culturally specific dietary tools are central to capturing the role of diet in risk for chronic disease in Sri Lanka. The next step will involve the verification of FFQ reproducibility and validity.

The impact of fatigue caused by sprint running on the median power frequency of the hamstring muscle group

Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are the predominant non-contact injury in many sports. Intermittent running has been shown to result in preferential reductions in eccentric hamstring strength, which increase the risk of sustaining a HSI. The eccentric specific nature of this decline in hamstring function implicates central mechanisms, as peripheral fatigue mechanisms tend to impact upon both concentric and eccentric contractions modes. However, neural function of the hamstrings, such as the median power frequency (MPF) of the surface electromyography signal has yet to be examined in the fatigued hamstring following intermittent sprint running. AIM: To determine the impact of fatigue induced by intermittent sprinting on the MPF of the medial and lateral hamstring muscles. METHODS: Fifteen recreationally active males completed 18 × 20m overground sprints. Maximal strength (concentric and eccentric knee flexor and concentric knee extensor) was determined isokinetically at the velocities of ±180.s-1 and ±60.s- while hamstring muscle activation was assessed using surface electromyography, before and 15 minutes after the running protocol. RESULTS: Overground intermittent running caused a significant reduction in eccentric knee flexor strength (27.2 Nm; 95% CI = 11.2 to 43.3; p=0.0001) but not concentric strength (9.3 Nm; 95% CI = -6.7 to 25.3; P=0.6361). Following the overground running, MPF of the lateral hamstrings showed a significant decline eccentrically (0.86; 95% CI = 0.59 to 1.54; P=0.038) and concentrically (0.76; 95%CI = 0.66 to 0.83; P=0.039). Similar declines in MPF were also noted in the medial hamstrings eccentrically (1.54; 95% CI = 0.59 to 7.9; P=0.005) and concentrically (1.18; 95% CI = 0.44 to 6.8; P=0.040). CONCLUSION: Whilst sprint running induced fatigue led to a eccentric specific reduction in knee flexor torque, MPF was suppressed across both contraction modes. This would indicate that factors associated with the decline in MPF do not appear to explain the contraction mode-specific loss of strength after intermittent sprints. This would implicate other central mechanisms, such as declines in voluntary activation, in explaining the eccentric specific decline in strength seen following sprint running.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Genetic analysis of maize streak virus isolates from Uganda reveals widespread distribution of a recombinant variant

Maize streak virus (MSV) contributes significantly to the problem of extremely low African maize yields. Whilst a diverse range of MSV and MSV-like viruses are endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and neighbouring islands, only a single group of maize-adapted variants - MSV subtypes A1 -A6 - causes severe enough disease in maize to influence yields substantially. In order to assist in designing effective strategies to control MSV in maize, a large survey covering 155 locations was conducted to assess the diversity, distribution and genetic characteristics of the Ugandan MSV-A population. PCR-restriction fragment-length polymorphism analyses of 391 virus isolates identified 49 genetic variants. Sixty-two full-genome sequences were determined, 52 of which were detectably recombinant. All but two recombinants contained predominantly MSV-A1-like sequences. Of the ten distinct recombination events observed, seven involved inter-MSV-A subtype recombination and three involved intra-MSV-A1 recombination. One of the intra-MSV-A1 recombinants, designated MSV-A1 UgIII, accounted for >60% of all MSV infections sampled throughout Uganda. Although recombination may be an important factor in the emergence of novel geminivirus variants, it is demonstrated that its characteristics in MSV are quite different from those observed in related African cassava-infecting geminivirus species. © 2007 SGM.

A three-nucleotide mutation altering the Maize streak virus Rep pRBR-interaction motif reduces symptom severity in maize and partially reverts at high frequency without restoring pRBR-Rep binding

Geminivirus infectivity is thought to depend on interactions between the virus replication-associated proteins Rep or RepA and host retinoblastoma-related proteins (pRBR), which control cell-cycle progression. It was determined that the substitution of two amino acids in the Maize streak virus (MSV) RepA pRBR-interaction motif (LLCNE to LLCLK) abolished detectable RepA-pRBR interaction in yeast without abolishing infectivity in maize. Although the mutant virus was infectious in maize, it induced less severe symptoms than the wild-type virus. Sequence analysis of progeny viral DNA isolated from infected maize enabled detection of a high-frequency single-nucleotide reversion of C(601)A in the 3 nt mutated sequence of the Rep gene. Although it did not restore RepA-pRBR interaction in yeast, sequence-specific PCR showed that, in five out of eight plants, the C(601)A reversion appeared by day 10 post-inoculation. In all plants, the C(601)A revertant eventually completely replaced the original mutant population, indicating a high selection pressure for the single-nucleotide reversion. Apart from potentially revealing an alternative or possibly additional function for the stretch of DNA that encodes the apparently non-essential pRBR-interaction motif of MSV Rep, the consistent emergence and eventual dominance of the C(601)A revertant population might provide a useful tool for investigating aspects of MSV biology, such as replication, mutation and evolution rates, and complex population phenomena, such as competition between quasispecies and population turnover. © 2005 SGM.

Rapid host adaptation by extensive recombination

Experimental investigations into virus recombination can provide valuable insights into the biochemical mechanisms and the evolutionary value of this fundamental biological process. Here, we describe an experimental scheme for studying recombination that should be applicable to any recombinogenic viruses amenable to the production of synthetic infectious genomes. Our approach is based on differences in fitness that generally exist between synthetic chimaeric genomes and the wild-type viruses from which they are constructed. In mixed infections of defective reciprocal chimaeras, selection strongly favours recombinant progeny genomes that recover a portion of wild-type fitness. Characterizing these evolved progeny viruses can highlight both important genetic fitness determinants and the contribution that recombination makes to the evolution of their natural relatives. Moreover, these experiments supply precise information about the frequency and distribution of recombination breakpoints, which can shed light on the mechanistic processes underlying recombination. We demonstrate the value of this approach using the small single-stranded DNA geminivirus, maize streak virus (MSV). Our results show that adaptive recombination in this virus is extremely efficient and can yield complex progeny genomes comprising up to 18 recombination breakpoints. The patterns of recombination that we observe strongly imply that the mechanistic processes underlying rolling circle replication are the prime determinants of recombination breakpoint distributions found in MSV genomes sampled from nature. © 2009 SGM.