954 resultados para forecast errors


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Viable cells of Candida guilliermondii were immobilized by inclusion into polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) hydrogel using the freezing-thawing method. Entrapment experiments were planned according to a 2(3) full factorial design, using the PVA concentration (80, 100, and 120 g L(-1)), the freezing temperature (-10, -15, and -20 degrees C), and the number of freezing-thawing cycles (one, three, and five) as the independent variables, integrated with three additional tests to estimate the errors. The effectiveness of the immobilization procedure was checked in Erlenmeyer flasks as the pellet capability to catalyze the xylose-to-xylitol bioconversion of a medium based on sugarcane bagasse hemicellulosic hydrolysate. To this purpose, the yield of xylitol on consumed xylose, xylitol volumetric productivity, and cell retention yield were selected as the response variables. Cell pellets were then used to perform the same bioconversion in a stirred tank reactor operated at 400 rpm, 30 degrees C, and 1.04 vvm air flowrate. At the end of fermentation, a maximum xylitol concentration of 28.7 g L(-1), a xylitol yield on consumed xylose of 0.49 g g(-1) and a xylitol volumetric productivity of 0.24 g L(-1) h(-1) were obtained.

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A multicenter descriptive study was carried out in two steps: an interview with providers involved in the medication processes, and then non-participating observation of their environment and practices. Only one hospital was found to have a bar-coding, dispensing system connected to a computerized prescription system. fit all participating hospitals at least 90% of the drugs were dispensed and distributed as unit doses, but in none of them did pharmacists assess prescriptions. The study findings showed that the processes of drug dispensing and distribution in Brazilian hospitals encounter several problems, mostly associated to work environment conditions and inadequacy in drug ordering and requests.

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Purpose Adverse drug events (ADEs) are harmful and occur with alarming frequency in critically ill patients. Complex pharmacotherapy with multiple medications increases the probability of a drug interaction (DI) and ADEs in patients in intensive care units (ICUs). The objective of the study is to determine the frequency of ADEs among patients in the ICU of a university hospital and the drugs implicated. Also, factors associated with ADEs are investigated. Methods This cross-sectional study investigated 299 medical records of patients hospitalized for 5 or more days in an ICU. ADEs were identified through intensive monitoring adopted in hospital pharmacovigilance and also ADE triggers. Adverse drug reactions (ADR) causality was classified using the Naranjo algorithm. Data were analyzed through descriptive analysis, and through univariate and multiple logistic regression. Results The most frequent ADEs were ADRs type A, of possible causality and moderate severity. The most frequent ADR was drug-induced acute kidney injury. Patients with ADEs related to DIs corresponded to 7% of the sample. The multiple logistic regression showed that length of hospitalization (OR = 1.06) and administration of cardiovascular drugs (OR = 2.2) were associated with the occurrence of ADEs. Conclusion Adverse drug reactions of clinical significance were the most frequent ADEs in the ICU studied, which reduces patient safety. The number of ADEs related to drug interactions was small, suggesting that clinical manifestations of drug interactions that harm patients are not frequent in ICUs.

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In this study, the innovation approach is used to estimate the measurement total error associated with power system state estimation. This is required because the power system equations are very much correlated with each other and as a consequence part of the measurements errors is masked. For that purpose an index, innovation index (II), which provides the quantity of new information a measurement contains is proposed. A critical measurement is the limit case of a measurement with low II, it has a zero II index and its error is totally masked. In other words, that measurement does not bring any innovation for the gross error test. Using the II of a measurement, the masked gross error by the state estimation is recovered; then the total gross error of that measurement is composed. Instead of the classical normalised measurement residual amplitude, the corresponding normalised composed measurement residual amplitude is used in the gross error detection and identification test, but with m degrees of freedom. The gross error processing turns out to be very simple to implement, requiring only few adaptations to the existing state estimation software. The IEEE-14 bus system is used to validate the proposed gross error detection and identification test.

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This paper develops H(infinity) control designs based on neural networks for fully actuated and underactuated cooperative manipulators. The neural networks proposed in this paper only adapt the uncertain dynamics of the robot manipulators. They work as a complement of the nominal model. The H(infinity) performance index includes the position errors as well the squeeze force errors between the manipulator end-effectors and the object, which represents a complete disturbance rejection scenario. For the underactuated case, the squeeze force control problem is more difficult to solve due to the loss of some degrees of manipulator actuation. Results obtained from an actual cooperative manipulator, which is able to work as a fully actuated and an underactuated manipulator, are presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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With the relentless quest for improved performance driving ever tighter tolerances for manufacturing, machine tools are sometimes unable to meet the desired requirements. One option to improve the tolerances of machine tools is to compensate for their errors. Among all possible sources of machine tool error, thermally induced errors are, in general for newer machines, the most important. The present work demonstrates the evaluation and modelling of the behaviour of the thermal errors of a CNC cylindrical grinding machine during its warm-up period.

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This paper presents results on a verification test of a Direct Numerical Simulation code of mixed high-order of accuracy using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS). This test is based on the formulation of an analytical solution for the Navier-Stokes equations modified by the addition of a source term. The present numerical code was aimed at simulating the temporal evolution of instability waves in a plane Poiseuille flow. The governing equations were solved in a vorticity-velocity formulation for a two-dimensional incompressible flow. The code employed two different numerical schemes. One used mixed high-order compact and non-compact finite-differences from fourth-order to sixth-order of accuracy. The other scheme used spectral methods instead of finite-difference methods for the streamwise direction, which was periodic. In the present test, particular attention was paid to the boundary conditions of the physical problem of interest. Indeed, the verification procedure using MMS can be more demanding than the often used comparison with Linear Stability Theory. That is particularly because in the latter test no attention is paid to the nonlinear terms. For the present verification test, it was possible to manufacture an analytical solution that reproduced some aspects of an instability wave in a nonlinear stage. Although the results of the verification by MMS for this mixed-order numerical scheme had to be interpreted with care, the test was very useful as it gave confidence that the code was free of programming errors. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

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Hydrodynamic journal bearings are susceptible to static angular misalignment, resulting from improper assemblage, elastic and thermal distortion of the shaft and bearing housing, and also manufacturing errors. Several previous works on the theme, both theoretical and experimental, focused on the determination of the static properties of angular misaligned bearings. Although some reports show agreement between theoretical and experimental results, the increasingly severe operating conditions of hydrodynamic bearings (heavy loads and high rotational speeds) require more reliable theoretical formulations for the evaluation of the journal performance during the design process. The consideration of the angular misalignment in the derivation of the Reynolds equation is presented here in detail, showing that properly conducted geometric and magnitude-order analyses lead to the inclusion of an axial wedge effect term that influences the velocity and pressure fields in the lubricant film. Numerical results evidence that this axial wedge effect more significantly affects the hydrodynamic forces and static operational properties of tilted short journal bearings.

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There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Reconciliation can be divided into stages, each stage representing the performance of a mining operation, such as: long-term estimation, short-term estimation, planning, mining and mineral processing. The gold industry includes another stage which is the budget, when the company informs the financial market of its annual production forecast. The division of reconciliation into stages increases the reliability of the annual budget informed by the mining companies, while also detecting and correcting the critical steps responsible for the overall estimation error by the optimization of sampling protocols and equipment. This paper develops and validates a new reconciliation model for the gold industry, which is based on correct sampling practices and the subdivision of reconciliation into stages, aiming for better grade estimates and more efficient control of the mining industry`s processes, from resource estimation to final production.

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A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.

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The elastic mechanical behavior of elastic materials is modeled by a pair of independent constants (Young`s modulus and Poisson`s coefficient). A precise measurement for both constants is necessary in some applications, such as the quality control of mechanical elements and standard materials used for the calibration of some equipment. Ultrasonic techniques have been used because wave velocity depends on the elastic properties of the propagation medium. The ultrasonic test shows better repeatability and accuracy than the tensile and indentation test. In this work, the theoretical and experimental aspects related to the ultrasonic through-transmission technique for the characterization of elastic solids is presented. Furthermore, an amorphous material and some polycrystalline materials were tested. Results have shown an excellent repeatability and numerical errors that are less than 3% in high-purity samples.

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Three-dimensional modeling of piezoelectric devices requires a precise knowledge of piezoelectric material parameters. The commonly used piezoelectric materials belong to the 6mm symmetry class, which have ten independent constants. In this work, a methodology to obtain precise material constants over a wide frequency band through finite element analysis of a piezoceramic disk is presented. Given an experimental electrical impedance curve and a first estimate for the piezoelectric material properties, the objective is to find the material properties that minimize the difference between the electrical impedance calculated by the finite element method and that obtained experimentally by an electrical impedance analyzer. The methodology consists of four basic steps: experimental measurement, identification of vibration modes and their sensitivity to material constants, a preliminary identification algorithm, and final refinement of the material constants using an optimization algorithm. The application of the methodology is exemplified using a hard lead zirconate titanate piezoceramic. The same methodology is applied to a soft piezoceramic. The errors in the identification of each parameter are statistically estimated in both cases, and are less than 0.6% for elastic constants, and less than 6.3% for dielectric and piezoelectric constants.

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Real-time viscosity measurement remains a necessity for highly automated industry. To resolve this problem, many studies have been carried out using an ultrasonic shear wave reflectance method. This method is based on the determination of the complex reflection coefficient`s magnitude and phase at the solid-liquid interface. Although magnitude is a stable quantity and its measurement is relatively simple and precise, phase measurement is a difficult task because of strong temperature dependence. A simplified method that uses only the magnitude of the reflection coefficient and that is valid under the Newtonian regimen has been proposed by some authors, but the obtained viscosity values do not match conventional viscometry measurements. In this work, a mode conversion measurement cell was used to measure glycerin viscosity as a function of temperature (15 to 25 degrees C) and corn syrup-water mixtures as a function of concentration (70 to 100 wt% of corn syrup). Tests were carried out at 1 MHz. A novel signal processing technique that calculates the reflection coefficient magnitude in a frequency band, instead of a single frequency, was studied. The effects of the bandwidth on magnitude and viscosity were analyzed and the results were compared with the values predicted by the Newtonian liquid model. The frequency band technique improved the magnitude results. The obtained viscosity values came close to those measured by the rotational viscometer with percentage errors up to 14%, whereas errors up to 96% were found for the single frequency method.