Limitations of instantaneous water quality sampling in surface-water catchments: Comparison with near-continuous phosphorus time-series data.

The validity of load estimates from intermittent, instantaneous grab sampling is dependent on adequate spatial coverage by monitoring networks and a sampling frequency that re?ects the variability in the system under study. Catchments with a ?ashy hydrology due to surface runoff pose a particular challenge as intense short duration rainfall events may account for a signi?cant portion of the total diffuse transfer of pollution from soil to water in any hydrological year. This can also be exacerbated by the presence of strong background pollution signals from point sources during low flows. In this paper, a range of sampling methodologies and load estimation techniques are applied to phosphorus data from such a surface water dominated river system, instrumented at three sub-catchments (ranging from 3 to 5 km2 in area) with near-continuous monitoring stations. Systematic and Monte Carlo approaches were applied to simulate grab sampling using multiple strategies and to calculate an estimated load, Le based on established load estimation methods. Comparison with the actual load, Lt, revealed signi?cant average underestimation, of up to 60%, and high variability for all feasible sampling approaches. Further analysis of the time series provides an insight into these observations; revealing peak frequencies and power-law scaling in the distributions of P concentration, discharge and load associated with surface runoff and background transfers. Results indicate that only near-continuous monitoring that re?ects the rapid temporal changes in these river systems is adequate for comparative monitoring and evaluation purposes. While the implications of this analysis may be more tenable to small scale ?ashy systems, this represents an appropriate scale in terms of evaluating catchment mitigation strategies such as agri-environmental policies for managing diffuse P transfers in complex landscapes.

Alternative method to evaluate discharge coefficients. Part 2: case study

The purpose of this article is to apply an alternative method whereby discharge coefficients can be estimated for the flow through a poppet valve at various lifts. Presented is the development of an operational quasi-steady flow rig. An engine cylinder head poppet valve was used as the case study. The requirement to directly measure mass flowrates using a standard conventional steady flow apparatus has been eliminated. Transient mass flowrates, pressures and temperatures of air during an inflow test for a poppet valve at various lifts were measured. Mass flowrates were also calculated from measured cylinder gas pressures and corrected for heat transfer. Using both methods to determine the mass flowrates, isentropic discharge coefficients were calculated and shown to compare within +/- 4.0 per cent of steady flow data. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation of the quasi-steady flow rig is also presented.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

A CFTR Potentiator in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis and the G551D Mutation

Background:

Increasing the activity of defective cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) protein is a potential treatment for cystic fibrosis.

Methods:

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate ivacaftor (VX-770), a CFTR potentiator, in subjects 12 years of age or older with cystic fibrosis and at least one G551D-CFTR mutation. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive 150 mg of ivacaftor every 12 hours (84 subjects, of whom 83 received at least one dose) or placebo (83, of whom 78 received at least one dose) for 48 weeks. The primary end point was the estimated mean change from baseline through week 24 in the percent of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1).

Results:

The change from baseline through week 24 in the percent of predicted FEV1 was greater by 10.6 percentage points in the ivacaftor group than in the placebo group (P < 0.001). Effects on pulmonary function were noted by 2 weeks, and a significant treatment effect was maintained through week 48. Subjects receiving ivacaftor were 55% less likely to have a pulmonary exacerbation than were patients receiving placebo, through week 48 (P < 0.001). In addition, through week 48, subjects in the ivacaftor group scored 8.6 points higher than did subjects in the placebo group on the respiratory-symptoms domain of the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-revised instrument (a 100-point scale, with higher numbers indicating a lower effect of symptoms on the patient's quality of life) (P < 0.001). By 48 weeks, patients treated with ivacaftor had gained, on average, 2.7 kg more weight than had patients receiving placebo (P < 0.001). The change from baseline through week 48 in the concentration of sweat chloride, a measure of CFTR activity, with ivacaftor as compared with placebo was -48.1 mmol per liter (P < 0.001). The incidence of adverse events was similar with ivacaftor and placebo, with a lower proportion of serious adverse events with ivacaftor than with placebo (24% vs. 42%).

Conclusions:

Ivacaftor was associated with improvements in lung function at 2 weeks that were sustained through 48 weeks. Substantial improvements were also observed in the risk of pulmonary exacerbations, patient-reported respiratory symptoms, weight, and concentration of sweat chloride.

Average household income, crime, and smoking behaviour in a local area: The Finnish 10-Town study

Social environments, like neighbourhoods, are increasingly recognised as determinants of health. While several studies have reported an association of low neighbourhood socio-economic status with morbidity, mortality and health risk behaviour, little is known of the health effects of neighbourhood crime rates. Using the ongoing 10-Town study in Finland, we examined the relations of average household income and crime rate measured at the local area level, with smoking status and intensity by linking census data of local area characteristics from 181 postal zip codes to survey responses to smoking behaviour in a cohort of 23,008 municipal employees. Gender-stratified multilevel analyses adjusted for age and individual occupational status revealed an association between low local area income rate and current smoking. High local area crime rate was also associated with current smoking. Both local area characteristics were strongly associated with smoking intensity. Among ever-smokers, being an ex-smoker was less likely among residents in areas with low average household income and a high crime rate. In the fully adjusted model, the association between local area income and smoking behaviour among women was substantially explained by the area-level crime rate. This study extends our knowledge of potential pathways through which social environmental factors may affect health. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximating the Set of Local Minima in Partial RNA Folding Landscapes

Motivation: We study a stochastic method for approximating the set of local minima in partial RNA folding landscapes associated with a bounded-distance neighbourhood of folding conformations. The conformations are limited to RNA secondary structures without pseudoknots. The method aims at exploring partial energy landscapes pL induced by folding simulations and their underlying neighbourhood relations. It combines an approximation of the number of local optima devised by Garnier and Kallel (2002) with a run-time estimation for identifying sets of local optima established by Reeves and Eremeev (2004).

Results: The method is tested on nine sequences of length between 50 nt and 400 nt, which allows us to compare the results with data generated by RNAsubopt and subsequent barrier tree calculations. On the nine sequences, the method captures on average 92% of local minima with settings designed for a target of 95%. The run-time of the heuristic can be estimated by O(n2D?ln?), where n is the sequence length, ? is the number of local minima in the partial landscape pL under consideration and D is the maximum number of steepest descent steps in attraction basins associated with pL.

STIMULATION OF PHOSPHOLIPASE C-BETA(2) BY RECOMBINANT GUANINE-NUCLEOTIDE-BINDING PROTEIN BETA-GAMMA DIMERS PRODUCED IN A BACULOVIRUS/INSECT CELL EXPRESSION SYSTEM - REQUIREMENT OF GAMMA-SUBUNIT ISOPRENYLATION FOR STIMULATION OF PHOSPHOLIPASE-C

Recombinant wild-type beta(1) gamma(1) dimers of signal-transducing guanine nucleotide-binding proteins (G proteins) and beta(1) gamma 1 dimers carrying a mutation known to block gamma-subunit isoprenylation (beta(1) gamma(1)C71S) were expressed in baculovirus-infected insect cells. Both wild-type and mutant beta(1) gamma(1) dimers were found in soluble fractions of infected cells upon subcellular fractionation. Anion exchange chromatographic and metabolic-radiolabeling studies revealed that the soluble beta(1) gamma(1) preparation contained approximately equal amounts of non-isoprenylated and isoprenylated beta(1) gamma(1) dimers. Soluble wild-type and mutant beta(1) gamma(1) dimers and native beta(1) gamma(1) dimers purified from bovine retina were reconstituted with recombinant phospholipase C-beta(2). Only isoprenylated beta(1) gamma(1) dimers were capable of stimulating phospholipase C-beta(2). The results show that gamma-subunit isoprenylation and/or additional post-translational processing of the protein are required for beta gamma subunit stimulation of phospholipase C.

A metal deficient early B-type star near the edge of the galactic disk

High resolution spectra of an early B-type star associated with the H II region detected by de Geus et al. (1993) are analysed using LTE model atmosphere techniques to derive stellar atmospheric parameters and a chemical composition. A distance to the star of 8.2 kpc is estimated, placing it near the edge of the galactic disk and closer than the kinematic distance of 20 kpc to the H II region, calculated by de Geus et al. A differential line by line abundance analysis with respect to the spectroscopic standard tau Sco indicates a significant metal depletion, with elements down on average by -0.5 dex.

A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Allometric analysis of Sitka spruce branches:Mechanical versus hydraulic design principles

The geometry of tree branches can have considerable effect on their efficiency in terms of carbon export per unit carbon investment in structure. The purpose of this study was to evaluate different design criteria using data describing the form of Picea sitchensis branches. Allometric analysis of the data suggests that resources are distributed to favour shoots with the greatest opportunity for extension into new space, with priority to the extension of the leader. The distribution of allometric relations of links (branch elements) was tested against two models: the pipe model, based on hydraulic transport requirements, and a static load model based on the requirement of shoots to provide mechanical resistance to static loads. Static load resistance required the load parameter to be proportional to the link radius raised to the power of 4. This was shown to be true within a 95% statistical confidence limit. The pipe model would require total distal length to be proportional to link radius squared but the measured branches did not conform well to this model. The comparison suggests that the diameters of branch elements were more related to the requirements for mechanical load. The cost of following a hydraulic design principle (the pipe model) in terms of mechanical efficiency was estimated and suggested that the pipe model branch would not be mechanically compromised but would use structural resources inefficiently. Resource allocation among branch elements was found to be consistent with mechanical stability criteria but also indicated the possibility of allocation based on other criteria, such as potential light interception by shoots. The evidence suggests that whilst branch topology increments by reiteration of units of morphogenesis, the geometry follows a functional design pattern.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

Informed consent and the requirement to ensure understanding

It is generally held that doctors and researchers have an obligation to obtain informed consent. Over time there has been a move in relation to this obligation from a requirement to disclose information to a requirement to ensure that that information is understood.Whilst this change has been resisted, in this article I argue that both sides on this matter are mistaken.When investigating what information is needed for consent to be informed we might be trying to determine what information a person would need in order to consent at all, or we might be trying to determine what information a person needs in order to make an informed choice about whether or not to consent. I argue that the obligation to ensure understanding only applies to information generated by the ?rst type of enquiry; but that much of the information generally thought necessary in order for consent to be informed is only required if our concern is with the second type of enquiry. For this reason it is neither the case that doctors and researchers should ensure all the information they provide is understood, nor is it the case that their only obligation is to disclose it.

Cube, cylinder, core and pull-off strength relationships

This limited experimental investigation examined the relationships between the compressive strengths of cubes, cylinders, cores and the estimated compressive strengths derived from pull-off tests for a relatively low-strength structural-grade concrete (<35 N/mm2). Test specimens were cast and tested at 7, 14, 28, 56 and 84 days. The relationships of the trends of the test results to the trends of results of standard cube specimens and standard cylinder specimens were compared. It was found that the mean strength of each type of specimen tended to increase as a function of the natural logarithm of the specimen age. The mean strength of cylinders of length/diameter ratio 2.0 was found to be slightly greater (by about 7.5%) than the generally accepted value of 80% of the mean cube strength. Core results were corrected using correction factors defined in BS 6089 and the UK national annex to BS EN 12504-1. The mean corrected cube strength of cores taken from cubes was approximately 12% greater than the mean companion cube strength. The mean corrected cylinder strength of cores taken from cubes was approximately 5% greater than the mean companion cylinder strength. The potential cube and cylinder strengths of cores taken from slabs cured under different environmental conditions correlated well with companion cube and cylinder strengths respectively at 28 days. The pull-off test results gave a variable but, on average, slightly conservative estimate of the cube compressive strength of the relatively low-strength structural-grade concrete, using a simple general linear estimated compressive cube strength to tensile strength correlation factor of 10.

Estimates of peer effects in adolescent smoking across twenty six European countries

Although it is widely believed that one of the key factors influencing whether an adolescent smokes or not is the smoking behaviour of his or her peers, empirical evidence on the magnitude of such peer effects, and even on their existence, is mixed. This existing evidence comes from a range of studies using a variety of country-specific data sources and a variety of identification strategies. This paper exploits a rich source of individual level, school-based, survey data on adolescent substance use across countries - the 2007 European Schools Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs - to provide estimates of peer effects between classmates in adolescent smoking for 75,000 individuals across 26 European countries, using the same methods in each case. The results suggest statistically significant peer effects in almost all cases. These peer effects estimates are large: on average across countries, the probability that a 'typical' adolescent smokes increases by between.31 and.38 percentage points for a one percentage point increase in the proportion of classmates that smoke. Further, estimated peer effects in adolescent smoking are stronger intra-gender than inter-gender. They also vary across countries: in Belgium, for example, a one percentage point increase in reference group smoking is associated with a.16 to.27 percentage point increase in own smoking probability; in the Netherlands the corresponding increase is between.42 and.59 percentage points. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.