The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

The National Audit Office uses OR to assess the value for money of public services

Supreme audit institutions (SAIs) have an important role in assessing value for money in the delivery of public services. Assessing value for money necessarily involves assessing counterfactuals: good value for money has been achieved if a policy could not reasonably have been delivered more efficiently, effectively, or economically. Operations research modelling has the potential to help in the assessment of these counterfactuals. However, is such modelling too arcane, complex, and technically burdensome for organisations that, like SAIs, operate in a time- and resource-constrained and politically charged environment? We report on three applications of modelling at the UK's SAI, the National Audit Office, in the context of studies on demand management in tax collection, end-of-life care, and health-care associated infections. In all cases, the models have featured in the audit reports and helped study teams come to a value-for-money judgment. We conclude that OR modelling is indeed a valuable addition to the value-for-money auditor's methodological tool box.

Terminal: a miracle play with popular music from the end of the world

Terminal: A Miracle Play with Popular Music from the End of the World is a film and live performance project exploring the politics of post-apocalyptic fiction. A theatrical staging of a morality play for end times and future folk music, it recasts eschatology, as a foundational myth for a future society. Post-apocalyptic writing and cinema are grounded in an ethos of survivalism. Invoking Rousseau’s state of nature, or time before government, these fictions propose violent scenarios in which nuclear holocaust, environmental catastrophe and other disasters generate an individualistic politics of pure pragmatism, negating the possibility of democratic deliberation. Terminal narrates this familiar scenario, but at the same time questions its validity. The film, shot on black and white VHS at Kurt Schwitters’ Merzbarn in Cumbria, dramatises a series of conversations between future-historical archetypes about the needs and pressures of the situation in which they find themselves at the end of the world. The performers then gather to play worshipful songs about acid rain, radiation sickness and eating the dog, using a mix of conventional, obscure and makeshift instruments In the tradition of books such as Russell Hoban’s Riddley Walker and Arthur M. Miller Jr.’s A Canticle for Liebowitz, Terminal imagines artistic expression and new folk traditions for a world to come after the apocalypse. If, as Slavoj Žižek would have it, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to think of the end of capitalism, the project juxtaposes these two endpoints to test out how alternative scenarios might emerge from the collaborative practice of making theatre and music against a setting of social collapse.

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming.

Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Wind generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model (WAM) is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present day and potential future climate conditions represented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate towards the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in mid-latitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the mid to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

The end of the opportunism vs trust debate: bounded reliability as a new envelope concept in research on MNE governance

Modern transaction cost economics (TCE) thinking has developed into a key intellectual foundation of international business (IB) research, but the Williamsonian version has faced substantial criticism for adopting the behavioral assumption of opportunism. In this paper we assess both the opportunism concept and existing alternatives such as trust within the context of IB research, especially work on multinational enterprise (MNE) governance. Case analyses of nine global MNEs illustrate an alternative to the opportunism assumption that captures more fully the mechanisms underlying failed commitments inside the MNE. As a substitute for the often-criticized assumption of opportunism, we propose the envelope concept of bounded reliability (BRel), an assumption that represents more accurately and more completely the reasons for failed commitments, without invalidating the other critical assumption in conventional TCE (and internalization theory) thinking, namely the widely accepted envelope concept of bounded rationality (BRat). Bounded reliability as an envelope concept includes two main components, within the context of global MNE management: opportunism as intentional deceit, and benevolent preference reversal. The implications for IB research of adopting the bounded reliability concept are far reaching, as this concept may increase the legitimacy of comparative institutional analysis in the social sciences.

Species 2000 & ITIS Catalogue of Life, 2013 Annual Checklist

This release of the Catalogue of Life contains contributions from 132 databases with information on 1,352,112 species, 114,069 infraspecific taxa and also includes 928,147 synonyms and 408,689 common names covering the following groups: Viruses • Viruses and Subviral agents from ICTV_MSL UPDATED! Bacteria and Archaea from BIOS Chromista • Chromistan fungi from Species Fungorum Protozoa • Major groups from ITIS Regional, • Ciliates from CilCat, • Polycystines from WoRMS Polycystina UPDATED!, • Protozoan fungi from Species Fungorum and Trichomycetes database • Slime moulds from Nomen.eumycetozoa.com Fungi • Various taxa in whole or in part from CABI Bioservices databases (Species Fungorum, Phyllachorales, Rhytismatales, Saccharomycetes and Zygomycetes databases) and from three other databases covering Xylariaceae, Glomeromycota, Trichomycetes, Dothideomycetes • Lichens from LIAS UPDATED! Plantae (Plants) • Mosses from MOST • Liverworts and hornworts from ELPT • Conifers from Conifer Database • Cycads and 6 flowering plant families from IOPI-GPC, and 99 families from WCSP • Plus individual flowering plants families from AnnonBase, Brassicaceae, ChenoBase, Droseraceae Database, EbenaBase, GCC UPDATED!, ILDIS UPDATED!, LecyPages, LHD, MELnet UPDATED!, RJB Geranium, Solanaceae Source, Umbellifers. Animalia (Animals) • Marine groups from URMO, ITIS Global, Hexacorals, ETI WBD (Euphausiacea), WoRMS: WoRMS Asteroidea UPDATED!, WoRMS Bochusacea UPDATED!, WoRMS Brachiopoda UPDATED!, WoRMS Brachypoda UPDATED!, WoRMS Brachyura UPDATED!, WoRMS Bryozoa UPDATED!, WoRMS Cestoda NEW!, WoRMS Chaetognatha UPDATED!, WoRMS Cumacea UPDATED!, WoRMS Echinoidea UPDATED!, WoRMS Gastrotricha NEW!, WoRMS Gnathostomulida NEW!, WoRMS Holothuroidea UPDATED!, WoRMS Hydrozoa UPDATED!, WoRMS Isopoda UPDATED!, WoRMS Leptostraca UPDATED!, WoRMS Monogenea NEW!, WoRMS Mystacocarida UPDATED!, WoRMS Myxozoa NEW!, WoRMS Nemertea UPDATED!, WoRMS Oligochaeta UPDATED!, WoRMS Ophiuroidea UPDATED!, WoRMS Phoronida UPDATED!, WoRMS Placozoa NEW!, WoRMS Polychaeta UPDATED!, WoRMS Polycystina UPDATED!, WoRMS Porifera UPDATED!, WoRMS Priapulida NEW!, WoRMS Proseriata and Kalyptorhynchia UPDATED!, WoRMS Remipedia UPDATED!, WoRMS Scaphopoda UPDATED!, WoRMS Tanaidacea UPDATED!, WoRMS Tantulocarida UPDATED!, WoRMS Thermosbaenacea UPDATED!, WoRMS Trematoda NEW!, WoRMS Xenoturbellida UPDATED! • Rotifers, mayflies, freshwater hairworms, planarians from FADA databases: FADA Rotifera UPDATED!, FADA Ephemeroptera NEW!, FADA Nematomorpha NEW! & FADA Turbellaria NEW! • Entoprocts, water bears from ITIS Global • Spiders, scorpions, ticks & mites from SpidCat via ITIS UPDATED!, SalticidDB , ITIS Global, TicksBase, SpmWeb BdelloideaBase UPDATED! & Mites GSDs: OlogamasidBase, PhytoseiidBase, RhodacaridBase & TenuipalpidBase • Diplopods, centipedes, pauropods and symphylans from SysMyr UPDATED! & ChiloBase • Dragonflies and damselflies from Odonata database • Stoneflies from PlecopteraSF UPDATED! • Cockroaches from BlattodeaSF UPDATED! • Praying mantids from MantodeaSF UPDATED! • Stick and leaf insects from PhasmidaSF UPDATED! • Grasshoppers, locusts, katydids and crickets from OrthopteraSF UPDATED! • Webspinners from EmbiopteraSF UPDATED! • Bark & parasitic lices from PsocodeaSF NEW! • Some groups of true bugs from ScaleNet, FLOW, COOL, Psyllist, AphidSF UPDATED! , MBB, 3i Cicadellinae, 3i Typhlocybinae, MOWD & CoreoideaSF NEW!• Twisted-wing parasites from Strepsiptera Database UPDATED! • Lacewings, antlions, owlflies, fishflies, dobsonflies & snakeflies from LDL Neuropterida • Some beetle groups from the Scarabs UPDATED!, TITAN, WTaxa & ITIS Global • Fleas from Parhost • Flies, mosquitoes, bots, midges and gnats from Systema Dipterorum, CCW & CIPA • Butterflies and moths from LepIndex UPDATED!, GloBIS (GART) UPDATED!, Tineidae NHM, World Gracillariidae • Bees & wasps from ITIS Bees, Taxapad Ichneumonoidea, UCD, ZOBODAT Vespoidea & HymIS Rhopalosomatidae NEW!• Molluscs from WoRMS Mollusca NEW!, FADA Bivalvia NEW!, MolluscaFW NEW! & AFD (Pulmonata) • Fishes from FishBase UPDATED! • Reptiles from TIGR Reptiles • Amphibians, birds and mammals from ITIS Global PLUS additional species of many groups from ITIS Regional, NZIB and CoL China NEW!

Species 2000 & ITIS Catalogue of Life, 2012 Annual Checklist

The Species 2000 & ITIS Catalogue of Life is planned to become a comprehensive catalogue of all known species of organisms on Earth. Rapid progress has been made recently and this, the twelfth edition of the Annual Checklist, contains 1,404,038 species. Please note that this is probably just slightly over 2/3 of the world's known species. This means that for many groups it continues to be deficient, and users will notice that many species are still missing from the Catalogue. The present Catalogue is compiled with sectors provided by 115 taxonomic databases from around the world. Many of these contain taxonomic data and opinions from extensive networks of specialists, so that the complete work contains contributions from more than 3,000 specialists from throughout the taxonomic profession. Species 2000 and ITIS teams peer review databases, select appropriate sectors and integrate the sectors into a single coherent catalogue with a single hierarchical classification. It is planned to introduce alternative taxonomic treatments and alternative classifications, but an important feature is that for those users who wish to use it, a single preferred catalogue, based on peer reviews, will continue to be provided.

Species 2000 & ITIS Catalogue of Life, 2011 Annual Checklist

The Catalogue of Life: 2011 Annual Checklist contains contributions from 99 databases with information on 1,347,224 species and 92,306 infraspecific taxa, and also includes 895,441 synonyms and 366,401 common names

Contribution of the geriatrician to the management of cancer in older patients

With an increasingly aged population, many patients will present with cancer in their 80s and 90s. Although some may be very fit, frail individuals will require the input of geriatricians to aid in the assessment of co-existing morbidity, in an attempt to assess those most likely to benefit from active treatment of their cancer, and those in whom the ‘giants of geriatric medicine’ require special consideration before undergoing definitive cancer therapy. The role of the geriatrician in assessment and management of such patients, together with communication and end of life care, may be more important in ensuring a good quality of life, than the cancer therapy itself. Whilst numbers of geriatricians will not be adequate to care for all elderly patients with cancer, a variety of assessment scales will help target financial and manpower resources to those most at risk.

Estimating age of mature adults from the degeneration of the sternal end of the clavicle

The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age-related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann-Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled-sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional "mature adult" age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research.

Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.