Cost-benefit analysis: The ``gold standard'' re-examined

The dissertation reviews the recommendations of the Panel on Cost Effectiveness in Health and Medicine (Panel) convened by the US Public Health Service in 1993 in four areas: aggregation of costs and benefits, methods of estimating resources used, definition of population impacted and perspective used in cost benefit analysis. Financial data from a clinical trial was used to test whether different approaches in each of the above four areas would change the net benefit resulting from a cost benefit analysis. Differences in aggregation of cost and benefit resulted in the same net benefit, but not the same cost/benefit ratios. Differences in resource use estimation methods, population subgroups definitions and perspectives all produced different net benefits. Difference in perspective resulted in different and often opposing decisions as to whether the proposed intervention from the clinical trial should be implemented. ^

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Ultra-early intravenous stroke thrombolysis: do all patients benefit similarly?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE We previously reported increased benefit and reduced mortality after ultra-early stroke thrombolysis in a single center. We now explored in a large multicenter cohort whether extra benefit of treatment within 90 minutes from symptom onset is uniform across predefined stroke severity subgroups, as compared with later thrombolysis. METHODS Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients who received i.v. thrombolysis in 10 European stroke centers were merged. Logistic regression tested association between treatment delays, as well as excellent 3-month outcome (modified Rankin scale, 0-1), and mortality. The association was tested separately in tertiles of baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. RESULTS In the whole cohort (n=6856), shorter onset-to-treatment time as a continuous variable was significantly associated with excellent outcome (P<0.001). Every fifth patient had onset-to-treatment time≤90 minutes, and these patients had lower frequency of intracranial hemorrhage. After adjusting for age, sex, admission glucose level, and year of treatment, onset-to-treatment time≤90 minutes was associated with excellent outcome in patients with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 7 to 12 (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.70; P=0.004), but not in patients with baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale>12 (odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.32; P=0.99) and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale 0 to 6 (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.39; P=0.80). In the latter, however, an independent association (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.01; P<0.01) was found when considering modified Rankin scale 0 as outcome (to overcome the possible ceiling effect from spontaneous better prognosis of patients with mild symptoms). Ultra-early treatment was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS I.v. thrombolysis within 90 minutes is, compared with later thrombolysis, strongly and independently associated with excellent outcome in patients with moderate and mild stroke severity.

Limited clinical benefit of minority K103N and Y181C-variant detection in addition to routine genotypic resistance testing in antiretroviral therapy-naive patients

OBJECTIVE: The presence of minority nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-resistant HIV-1 variants prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to virologic failure in treatment-naive patients. DESIGN: We performed a large retrospective study to determine the number of treatment failures that could have been prevented by implementing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variant analyses in ART-naïve patients in whom no NNRTI resistance mutations were detected by routine resistance testing. METHODS: Of 1608 patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, who have initiated first-line ART with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and one NNRTI before July 2008, 519 patients were eligible by means of HIV-1 subtype, viral load and sample availability. Key NNRTI drug resistance mutations K103N and Y181C were measured by allele-specific PCR in 208 of 519 randomly chosen patients. RESULTS: Minority K103N and Y181C drug resistance mutations were detected in five out of 190 (2.6%) and 10 out of 201 (5%) patients, respectively. Focusing on 183 patients for whom virologic success or failure could be examined, virologic failure occurred in seven out of 183 (3.8%) patients; minority K103N and/or Y181C variants were present prior to ART initiation in only two of those patients. The NNRTI-containing, first-line ART was effective in 10 patients with preexisting minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant. CONCLUSION: As revealed in settings of case-control studies, minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variants can have an impact on ART. However, the sole implementation of minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant analysis in addition to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) cannot be recommended in routine clinical settings. Additional associated risk factors need to be discovered.

Benefit of a Contralateral Routing of Signal Device for Unilateral Cochlear Implant Users.

Objective: To investigate objective and subjective effects of an adjunctive contralateral routing of signal (CROS) device at the untreated ear in patients with a unilateral cochlear implant (CI). Design: Prospective study of 10 adult experienced unilateral CI users with bilateral severe-to-profound hearing loss. Speech in noise reception (SNR) and sound localization were measured with and without the additional CROS device. SNR was measured by applying speech signals at the untreated/CROS side while noise signals came from the front (S90N0). For S0N90, signal sources were switched. Sound localization was measured in a 12-loudspeaker full circle setup. To evaluate the subjective benefit, patients tried the device for 2 weeks at home, then filled out the abbreviated Speech, Spatial and Qualities of Hearing Scale as well as the Bern benefit in single-sided deafness questionnaires. Results: In the setting S90N0, all patients showed a highly significant SNR improvement when wearing the additional CROS device (mean 6.4 dB, p < 0.001). In the unfavorable setting S0N90, only a minor deterioration of speech understanding was noted (mean -0.66 dB, p = 0.54). Sound localization did not improve substantially with CROS. In the two questionnaires, 12 of 14 items showed an improvement in mean values, but none of them was statistically significant. Conclusion: Patients with unilateral CI benefit from a contralateral CROS device, particularly in a noisy environment, when speech comes from the CROS ear side. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Essays on behavioral aspects of the design and disclosure of compensation contracts

This thesis consists of four essays on the design and disclosure of compensation contracts. Essays 1, 2 and 3 focus on behavioral aspects of mandatory compensation disclosure rules and of contract negotiations in agency relationships. The three experimental studies develop psychology- based theory and present results that deviate from standard economic predictions. Furthermore, the results of Essay 1 and 2 also have implications for firms’ discretion in how to communicate their top management’s incentives to the capital market. Essay 4 analyzes the role of fairness perceptions for the evaluation of executive compensation. For this purpose, two surveys targeting representative eligible voters as well as investment professionals were conducted. Essay 1 investigates the role of the detailed ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’, which is part of the Security and Exchange Commission’s 2006 regulation, on investors’ evaluations of executive performance. Compensation disclosure complying with this regulation clarifies the relationship between realized reported compensation and the underlying performance measures and their target achievement levels. The experimental findings suggest that the salient presentation of executives’ incentives inherent in the ‘Compensation Discussion and Analysis’ makes investors’ performance evaluations less outcome dependent. Therefore, investors’ judgment and investment decisions might be less affected by noisy environmental factors that drive financial performance. The results also suggest that fairness perceptions of compensation contracts are essential for investors’ performance evaluations in that more transparent disclosure increases the perceived fairness of compensation and the performance evaluation of managers who are not responsible for a bad financial performance. These results have important practical implications as firms might choose to communicate their top management’s incentive compensation more transparently in order to benefit from less volatile expectations about their future performance. Similar to the first experiment, the experiment described in Essay 2 addresses the question of more transparent compensation disclosure. However, other than the first experiment, the second experiment does not analyze the effect of a more salient presentation of contract information but the informational effect of contract information itself. For this purpose, the experiment tests two conditions in which the assessment of the compensation contracts’ incentive compatibility, which determines executive effort, is either possible or not. On the one hand, the results suggest that the quality of investors’ expectations about executive effort is improved, but on the other hand investors might over-adjust their prior expectations about executive effort if being confronted with an unexpected financial performance and under-adjust if the financial performance confirms their prior expectations. Therefore, in the experiment, more transparent compensation disclosure does not lead to more correct overall judgments of executive effort and to even lower processing quality of outcome information. These results add to the literature on disclosure which predominantly advocates more transparency. The findings of the experiment however, identify decreased information processing quality as a relevant disclosure cost category. Firms might therefore carefully evaluate the additional costs and benefits of more transparent compensation disclosure. Together with the results from the experiment in Essay 1, the two experiments on compensation disclosure imply that firms should rather focus on their discretion how to present their compensation disclosure to benefit from investors’ improved fairness perceptions and their spill-over on performance evaluation. Essay 3 studies the behavioral effects of contextual factors in recruitment processes that do not affect the employer’s or the applicant’s bargaining power from a standard economic perspective. In particular, the experiment studies two common characteristics of recruitment processes: Pre-contractual competition among job applicants and job applicants’ non-binding effort announcements as they might be made during job interviews. Despite the standard economic irrelevance of these factors, the experiment develops theory regarding the behavioral effects on employees’ subsequent effort provision and the employers’ contract design choices. The experimental findings largely support the predictions. More specifically, the results suggest that firms can benefit from increased effort and, therefore, may generate higher profits. Further, firms may seize a larger share of the employment relationship’s profit by highlighting the competitive aspects of the recruitment process and by requiring applicants to make announcements about their future effort. Finally, Essay 4 studies the role of fairness perceptions for the public evaluation of executive compensation. Although economic criteria for the design of incentive compensation generally do not make restrictive recommendations with regard to the amount of compensation, fairness perceptions might be relevant from the perspective of firms and standard setters. This is because behavioral theory has identified fairness as an important determinant of individuals’ judgment and decisions. However, although fairness concerns about executive compensation are often stated in the popular media and even in the literature, evidence on the meaning of fairness in the context of executive compensation is scarce and ambiguous. In order to inform practitioners and standard setters whether fairness concerns are exclusive to non-professionals or relevant for investment professionals as well, the two surveys presented in Essay 4 aim to find commonalities in the opinions of representative eligible voters and investments professionals. The results suggest that fairness is an important criterion for both groups. Especially, exposure to risk in the form of the variable compensation share is an important criterion shared by both groups. The higher the assumed variable share, the higher is the compensation amount to be perceived as fair. However, to a large extent, opinions on executive compensation depend on personality characteristics, and to some extent, investment professionals’ perceptions deviate systematically from those of non-professionals. The findings imply that firms might benefit from emphasizing the riskiness of their managers’ variable pay components and, therefore, the findings are also in line with those of Essay 1.

Die Rolle des Benefit-Finding für die Qualität der Anpassung an das Leben nach dem Spitzensport

Die Lebensereignisforschung postuliert, dass die Anpassung an eine durch ein kritisches Ereignis veränderte Situation durch Benefit-Finding gefördert wird, indem Menschen Gewinnbringendes für ihr Leben erkennen (Filipp & Aymanns, 2010). Während in der frühen Forschung zum oft als kritisches Lebensereignis beschriebenen Karriereende im Spitzensport Benefit-Finding mitbedacht wurde, wird es in der aktuellen Forschung nur punktuell berücksichtigt (z.B. Curtis & Ennis, 1988, Wippert, 2011). Basierend auf dem Konzept Kritisches Lebensereignis (Filipp, 1995) untersucht die vorliegende Studie die Rolle des Benefit-Finding für die kurz-, mittel- und langfristige Qualität der Anpassung an das Karriereende. Methods: 290 Schweizer Spitzenathleten (Frauenanteil: 32.8%) aus 64 Sportarten wurden etwa 7.46 Jahre nach ihrem Karriereende mittels Fragebogen zum Benefit-Finding, Erleben des Karriereendes, zur Dauer und subjektiven Qualität der Anpassung an das Karriereende sowie zum psychischen Wohlbefinden befragt. Die Datenauswertung erfolgte mittels Strukturgleichungsmodellierung. Results: Das Modell zur Vorhersage der langfristigen Anpassungsqualität (psychische Wohlbefinden) an das Karriereende mit einer Varianzaufklärung von R2 = .26 passt recht gut zu den Daten (χ2 = 114.764, p ≤ .001, df = 56, CFI = .93, SRMR = .06, RMSEA = .06; AGFI = .91). Wie postuliert, hat das Ausmass von Benefit-Finding einen – über die kurz- und mittelfristige Anpassungsqualität (positive Emotionen, Anpassungsdauer und subjektive Anpassungsqualität) – vermittelten Effekt auf das psychische Wohlbefinden im Leben nach dem Spitzensport. Discussion/Conclusion: Das Konzept Kritisches Lebensereignis kristallisierte sich als zielführender Ansatz für die Analyse von zusammenwirkenden Faktoren hinsichtlich Qualität der Anpassung an das Leben nach dem Spitzensport heraus. Die Befunde indizieren, dass sportpsychologische Interventionen mit Fokus auf Benefit-Finding, zusammen mit anderen Elementen der gängigen Career-Assistance-Programme, kurzfristig für eine gelingende Transition und langfristig ein günstiges psychisches Wohlbefinden sinnvoll sind. References: Curtis, J. & Ennis, R. (1988). Negative consequences of leaving competitive sport? Comparative findings for former elite-level hockey players. Sociology of Sport Journal, 5, 87-106. Filipp, S.-H. (Hrsg.) (1995). Kritische Lebensereignisse (3. Aufl.). Weinheim: Beltz. Filipp, S.-H. & Aymanns, P. (2010). Kritische Lebensereignisse und Lebenskrisen. Vom Umgang mit den Schattenseiten des Lebens. Stuttgart: Kohlhammer. Wippert, P.-M. (2011). Kritische Lebensereignisse in Hochleistungsbiografien. Untersuchungen an Spitzensportlern, Tänzern und Musikern. Lengerich: Pabst.