930 resultados para dynamic probabilistic networks


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This article applies social network analysis techniques to a case study of police corruption in order to produce findings which will assist in corruption prevention and investigation. Police corruption is commonly studied but rarely are sophisticated tools of analyse engaged to add rigour to the field of study. This article analyses the ‘First Joke’ a systemic and long lasting corruption network in the Queensland Police Force, a state police agency in Australia. It uses the data obtained from a commission of inquiry which exposed the network and develops hypotheses as to the nature of the networks structure based on existing literature into dark networks and criminal networks. These hypotheses are tested by entering the data into UCINET and analysing the outcomes through social network analysis measures of average path distance, centrality and density. The conclusions reached show that the network has characteristics not predicted by the literature.

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This paper describes the characterisation for airborne uses of the public mobile data communication systems known broadly as 3G. The motivation for this study was to explore how this mature public communication systems could be used for aviation purposes. An experimental system was fitted to a light aircraft to record communication latency, line speed, RF level, packet loss and cell tower identifier. Communications was established using internet protocols and connection was made to a local server. The aircraft was flown in both remote and populous areas at altitudes up to 8500ft in a region located in South East Queensland, Australia. Results show that the average airborne RF levels are better than those on the ground by 21% and in the order of -77 dbm. Latencies were in the order of 500 ms (1/2 the latency of Iridium), an average download speed of 0.48 Mb/s, average uplink speed of 0.85 Mb/s, a packet of information loss of 6.5%. The maximum communication range was also observed to be 70km from a single cell station. The paper also describes possible limitations and utility of using such a communications architecture for both manned and unmanned aircraft systems.

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Attempts to map online networks, representing relationships between people and sites, have covered sites including Facebook, Twitter, and blogs. However, the predominant approach of static network visualization, treating months of data as a single case rather than depicting changes over time or between topics, remains a flawed process. As different events and themes provoke varying interactions and conversations, it is proposed that case-by-case analysis would aid studies of online social networks by further examining the dynamics of links and information flows. This study uses hyperlink analysis of a population of French political blogs to compare connections between sites from January to August 2009. Themes discussed in this period were identified for subsequent analysis of topic-oriented networks. By comparing static blogrolls with topical citations within posts, this research addresses challenges and methods in mapping online networks, providing new information on temporal aspects of linking behaviors and information flows within these systems.

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Genomic and proteomic analyses have attracted a great deal of interests in biological research in recent years. Many methods have been applied to discover useful information contained in the enormous databases of genomic sequences and amino acid sequences. The results of these investigations inspire further research in biological fields in return. These biological sequences, which may be considered as multiscale sequences, have some specific features which need further efforts to characterise using more refined methods. This project aims to study some of these biological challenges with multiscale analysis methods and stochastic modelling approach. The first part of the thesis aims to cluster some unknown proteins, and classify their families as well as their structural classes. A development in proteomic analysis is concerned with the determination of protein functions. The first step in this development is to classify proteins and predict their families. This motives us to study some unknown proteins from specific families, and to cluster them into families and structural classes. We select a large number of proteins from the same families or superfamilies, and link them to simulate some unknown large proteins from these families. We use multifractal analysis and the wavelet method to capture the characteristics of these linked proteins. The simulation results show that the method is valid for the classification of large proteins. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the relationship of proteins based on a layered comparison with their components. Many methods are based on homology of proteins because the resemblance at the protein sequence level normally indicates the similarity of functions and structures. However, some proteins may have similar functions with low sequential identity. We consider protein sequences at detail level to investigate the problem of comparison of proteins. The comparison is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and protein sequences are detected with the intrinsic mode functions. A measure of similarity is introduced with a new cross-correlation formula. The similarity results show that the EMD is useful for detection of functional relationships of proteins. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the transcriptional regulatory network of yeast cell cycle via stochastic differential equations. As the investigation of genome-wide gene expressions has become a focus in genomic analysis, researchers have tried to understand the mechanisms of the yeast genome for many years. How cells control gene expressions still needs further investigation. We use a stochastic differential equation to model the expression profile of a target gene. We modify the model with a Gaussian membership function. For each target gene, a transcriptional rate is obtained, and the estimated transcriptional rate is also calculated with the information from five possible transcriptional regulators. Some regulators of these target genes are verified with the related references. With these results, we construct a transcriptional regulatory network for the genes from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The construction of transcriptional regulatory network is useful for detecting more mechanisms of the yeast cell cycle.

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Network-based Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) monitor network traffic for signs of malicious activities that have the potential to disrupt entire network infrastructures and services. NIDS can only operate when the network traffic is available and can be extracted for analysis. However, with the growing use of encrypted networks such as Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) that encrypt and conceal network traffic, a traditional NIDS can no longer access network traffic for analysis. The goal of this research is to address this problem by proposing a detection framework that allows a commercial off-the-shelf NIDS to function normally in a VPN without any modification. One of the features of the proposed framework is that it does not compromise on the confidentiality afforded by the VPN. Our work uses a combination of Shamir’s secret-sharing scheme and randomised network proxies to securely route network traffic to the NIDS for analysis. The detection framework is effective against two general classes of attacks – attacks targeted at the network hosts or attacks targeted at framework itself. We implement the detection framework as a prototype program and evaluate it. Our evaluation shows that the framework does indeed detect these classes of attacks and does not introduce any additional false positives. Despite the increase in network overhead in doing so, the proposed detection framework is able to consistently detect intrusions through encrypted networks.

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In this contribution, a stability analysis for a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) connected to a weak ac system containing a dynamic load is presented using continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. The system dynamics are explored through the continuation of periodic solutions of the associated dynamic equations. The switching process in the DVR converter is taken into account to trace the stability regions through a suitable mathematical representation of the DVR converter. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers, are computed. Besides, the DVR converter model employed in this contribution avoids the necessity of developing very complicated iterative map approaches as in the conventional bifurcation analysis of converters. The continuation method and the DVR model can take into account dynamics and nonlinear loads and any network topology since the analysis is carried out directly from the state space equations. The bifurcation approach is shown to be both computationally efficient and robust, since it eliminates the need for numerically critical and long-lasting transient simulations.

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Different from conventional methods for structural reliability evaluation, such as, first/second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) or Monte Carlo simulation based on corresponding limit state functions, a novel approach based on dynamic objective oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN) for prediction of structural reliability of a steel bridge element has been proposed in this paper. The DOOBN approach can effectively model the deterioration processes of a steel bridge element and predict their structural reliability over time. This approach is also able to achieve Bayesian updating with observed information from measurements, monitoring and visual inspection. Moreover, the computational capacity embedded in the approach can be used to facilitate integrated management and maintenance optimization in a bridge system. A steel bridge girder is used to validate the proposed approach. The predicted results are compared with those evaluated by FORM method.

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A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is a set of sensors that are integrated with a physical environment. These sensors are small in size, and capable of sensing physical phenomena and processing them. They communicate in a multihop manner, due to a short radio range, to form an Ad Hoc network capable of reporting network activities to a data collection sink. Recent advances in WSNs have led to several new promising applications, including habitat monitoring, military target tracking, natural disaster relief, and health monitoring. The current version of sensor node, such as MICA2, uses a 16 bit, 8 MHz Texas Instruments MSP430 micro-controller with only 10 KB RAM, 128 KB program space, 512 KB external ash memory to store measurement data, and is powered by two AA batteries. Due to these unique specifications and a lack of tamper-resistant hardware, devising security protocols for WSNs is complex. Previous studies show that data transmission consumes much more energy than computation. Data aggregation can greatly help to reduce this consumption by eliminating redundant data. However, aggregators are under the threat of various types of attacks. Among them, node compromise is usually considered as one of the most challenging for the security of WSNs. In a node compromise attack, an adversary physically tampers with a node in order to extract the cryptographic secrets. This attack can be very harmful depending on the security architecture of the network. For example, when an aggregator node is compromised, it is easy for the adversary to change the aggregation result and inject false data into the WSN. The contributions of this thesis to the area of secure data aggregation are manifold. We firstly define the security for data aggregation in WSNs. In contrast with existing secure data aggregation definitions, the proposed definition covers the unique characteristics that WSNs have. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between security services and adversarial models considered in existing secure data aggregation in order to provide a general framework of required security services. Thirdly, we analyze existing cryptographic-based and reputationbased secure data aggregation schemes. This analysis covers security services provided by these schemes and their robustness against attacks. Fourthly, we propose a robust reputationbased secure data aggregation scheme for WSNs. This scheme minimizes the use of heavy cryptographic mechanisms. The security advantages provided by this scheme are realized by integrating aggregation functionalities with: (i) a reputation system, (ii) an estimation theory, and (iii) a change detection mechanism. We have shown that this addition helps defend against most of the security attacks discussed in this thesis, including the On-Off attack. Finally, we propose a secure key management scheme in order to distribute essential pairwise and group keys among the sensor nodes. The design idea of the proposed scheme is the combination between Lamport's reverse hash chain as well as the usual hash chain to provide both past and future key secrecy. The proposal avoids the delivery of the whole value of a new group key for group key update; instead only the half of the value is transmitted from the network manager to the sensor nodes. This way, the compromise of a pairwise key alone does not lead to the compromise of the group key. The new pairwise key in our scheme is determined by Diffie-Hellman based key agreement.

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Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

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This article explores the use of probabilistic classification, namely finite mixture modelling, for identification of complex disease phenotypes, given cross-sectional data. In particular, if focuses on posterior probabilities of subgroup membership, a standard output of finite mixture modelling, and how the quantification of uncertainty in these probabilities can lead to more detailed analyses. Using a Bayesian approach, we describe two practical uses of this uncertainty: (i) as a means of describing a person’s membership to a single or multiple latent subgroups and (ii) as a means of describing identified subgroups by patient-centred covariates not included in model estimation. These proposed uses are demonstrated on a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), where latent subgroups are identified using multiple symptoms from the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS).

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Online social networking has become one of the most popular Internet applications in the modern era. They have given the Internet users, access to information that other Internet based applications are unable to. Although many of the popular online social networking web sites are focused towards entertainment purposes, sharing information can benefit the healthcare industry in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness. But the capability to share personal information; the factor which has made online social networks so popular, is itself a major obstacle when considering information security and privacy aspects. Healthcare can benefit from online social networking if they are implemented such that sensitive patient information can be safeguarded from ill exposure. But in an industry such as healthcare where the availability of information is crucial for better decision making, information must be made available to the appropriate parties when they require it. Hence the traditional mechanisms for information security and privacy protection may not be suitable for healthcare. In this paper we propose a solution to privacy enhancement in online healthcare social networks through the use of an information accountability mechanism.

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Based on the embedded atom method (EAM) and molecular dynamics (MD) method, the deformation properties of Cu nanowires with different single defects under dynamic compression have been studied. The mechanical behaviours of the perfect nanowire are first studied, and the critical stress decreases with the increase of the nanowire’s length, which is well agreed with the modified Euler theory. We then consider the effects to the buckling phenomenon resulted from different defects. It is found that obvious decrease of the critical stress is resulted from different defects, and the largest decrease is found in nanowire with the surface vertical defect. Surface defects are found exerting larger influence than internal defects. The buckling duration is found shortened due to different defects except the nanowire with surface horizon defect, which is also found possessing the largest deflection. Different deflections are also observed for different defected nanowires. It is find that due to surface defects, only deflection in one direction is happened, but for internal defects, more complex deflection circumstances are observed.

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Dry eye syndrome is one of the most commonly reported eye health conditions. Dynamic-area highspeed videokeratoscopy (DA-HSV) represents a promising alternative to the most invasive clinical methods for the assessment of the tear film surface quality (TFSQ), particularly as Placido-disk videokeratoscopy is both relatively inexpensive and widely used for corneal topography assessment. Hence, improving this technique to diagnose dry eye is of clinical significance and the aim of this work. First, a novel ray-tracing model is proposed that simulates the formation of a Placido image. This model shows the relationship between tear film topography changes and the obtained Placido image and serves as a benchmark for the assessment of indicators of the ring’s regularity. Further, a novel block-feature TFSQ indicator is proposed for detecting dry eye from a series of DA-HSV measurements. The results of the new indicator evaluated on data from a retrospective clinical study, which contains 22 normal and 12 dry eyes, have shown a substantial improvement of the proposed technique to discriminate dry eye from normal tear film subjects. The best discrimination was obtained under suppressed blinking conditions. In conclusion,this work highlights the potential of the DA-HSV as a clinical tool to diagnose dry eye syndrome.