973 resultados para drought


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Sporobolus stapfianus Gandoger, one of ~40 known ‘anabiotic’grass species (i.e. ‘able to regain vital activity from a state of latent life’), is the most versatile tool for research into desiccation tolerance in vegetative grass tissue. Current knowledge on this species is presented, including the features that suit it for investigations into the plant’s ability to survive dehydration of its leaf protoplasm. The main contributors to desiccation tolerance in S. stapfianus leaves appear to be: accumulation during dehydration of protectants of membranes and proteins; mechanisms limiting oxidative damage; a retention of protein synthetic activity in late stages of drying that is linked with changes in gene expression and in the proteomic array; and an ability to retain net synthesis of ATP during drying. S. stapfianus exemplifies an advanced stage of an evolutionary trend in desiccation tolerant plants towards increased importance of the dehydration phase (for induction of tolerance, for synthesis of protectants and for proteomic changes).

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Many temperate estuaries have intermittently open and closed mouths, a feature that is often related to intermittent freshwater input. These systems, often overlooked due to their small size, can have large hydrological variability over medium-term time scales.

This variability presents potential difficulties for estuarine species particularly where anthropogenic alterations to freshwater flows can cause large deviations from natural patterns of tidal influence and inundation of habitat.

Influences of natural and hydrological variability on seagrasses were examined in two central Victorian estuaries with anthropogenically-modified but naturally-intermittent freshwater flows and mouth openings. Comparisons were focused on differences between an estuary with artificially-augmented freshwater inflow and an adjacent system, in which the volume and timing of inflows were altered by a reservoir. Eight additional estuaries in the region were also used to provide a context for these two main sites.

Hydrological changes during the three-year field component were affected by the ending of a drought and then a major flood a year later as well as by ongoing anthropogenic flow reduction and augmentation. These influences on hydrology were associated with an initially high seagrass coverage that was substantially reduced and showed signs of recovery only in the system that was affected by lower inflows. Such influences and responses also changed seasonally but to a much lesser extent than the responses to stochastic climatic events.

Natural flows were intermittent and varied substantially between years. Flooding flows represented up to 89% of the long-term annual average flow. Water quality was broadly typical of the region, with the exception of low pH in some tributaries, especially those of Anglesea estuary. Anthropogenic changes to flow were most evident at times of low natural flows and resulted in longer and more frequent periods of zero inflow to Painkalac estuary and a continual base flow to Anglesea. This base flow, from ponds containing coal ash, neutralised waters flowing from upstream and increased conductivity, except at times of high natural flow.

A three-state conceptual model of the magnitude and variability of water levels, based largely on the degree of tidal influence was identified and quantitatively assessed for the two estuaries that were the main focus of the study. These states in turn had a large influence on the area and inundation of benthic habitat. Floods tended to open the mouths of estuaries, which then remained tidal given sufficient flow to overcome sedimentary processes at the mouths. Low and zero inflow was a precondition for closure of the mouths of the estuaries. When closed, differences in inflow resulted in different endpoints in salinity patterns. From an initial pattern similar to a classic ‘salt wedge’, Painkalac estuary, with reduced inflow, quickly destratified and gradually became more saline, at times hypersaline. Anglesea estuary, with augmented flow, tended to remain stratified for longer until becoming completely fresh, given a long enough period of closure.

Episodic changes in the water quality of the estuaries were associated with different components of the freshwater flow regimes. At high flows, fresh waters of low pH with a high metal load entered Anglesea estuary. Except during the largest flood, when the estuary was completely flushed, this water was neutralised at the halocline and resulting in precipitation of metals. High flows into Painkalac were associated with elevated concentrations of clay-sourced suspended solids. During a closed period, with zero flow, a release of sediment-bound nutrients triggered by anoxia was observed in Painkalac, followed by an algal bloom.

The large decline in seagrass extent that was observed in both estuaries was closely related to floods and the subsequent reductions in potential habitat associated with the tidal states that followed. Analysis of historical patterns of extent against rainfall records suggested that periods of drought and extended mouth closures were related to establishment and expansion of beds. This model was similar to that described for South African estuaries and contrasted with more-seasonal patterns reported for local marine embayments.

Rates of in situ decomposition of seagrass detritus showed a mix of seasonal and disturbance-driven patterns of change, depending on estuary. Variability of these rates on a scale of 100s of metres was typically not significant, but there were a few episodes that were highly significant. A negative correlation between decomposition rate and seagrass extent was also observed. A novel technique for assessing cellulose decomposition potential in sediment, adapted from soil science, proved to be a useful tool for estuarine research. Results from this component of the study highlighted both small-scale variability that was inconsistent through time, and also stable differences in decomposition potential between depths and estuaries that were consistent with differences in hydrological state and salinity.

Given the relative lack of knowledge about processes in intermittent estuaries, particularly those relating to changes in freshwater inflow, results from this study will be of value both locally and for similar systems elsewhere. Locally, it is likely that flow regimes to both Anglesea and Painkalac estuaries will be reduced, following closure of the mine power station at Anglesea and due to increased demand from the reservoir above Painkalac. There is potential to manage flows from each of these sources to minimise downstream effects. Regionally, and globally, there are many intermittent estuaries in areas with Mediterranean-type climates. It has been predicted that the climates of these regions will become drier but with an increase in intensity of storm events, both of which have ramifications for flow regimes to estuaries. It is hoped that results of this study will contribute to more informed management of intermittent estuaries in the context of these likely changes.

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This paper details a system dynamics model developed to simulate proposed changes to water governance through the integration of supply, demand and asset management processes. To effectively accomplish this, interconnected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity are included in the model design, representing the first comprehensive life-cycle modelling of potable water systems. A number of scenarios were applied to Australia's populated South-east Queensland region, demonstrating that introducing temporary drought pricing (i.e. progressive water prices set inverse with availability), in conjunction with supply augmentation through rain-independent sources, is capable of efficiently providing water security in the future. Modelling demonstrated that this alternative tariff structure reduced demand in scarcity periods thereby preserving supply, whilst revenues are maintained to build new water supply infrastructure. In addition to exploring alternative tariffs, the potential benefits of using adaptive pressure-retarded osmosis desalination plants for both potable water and power generation was explored. This operation of these plants for power production, when they would otherwise be idle, shows promise in reducing their net energy and carbon footprints. Stakeholders in industry, government and academia were engaged in model development and validation. The constructed model displays how water resource systems can be reorganised to cope with systemic change and uncertainty.

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In dry climate zones, headwater streams are often regulated for water extraction causing intermittency in perennial streams and prolonged drying in intermittent streams. Regulation thereby reduces aquatic habitat downstream of weirs that also form barriers to migration by stream fauna. Environmental flow releases may restore streamflow in rivers, but are rarely applied to headwaters. We sampled fish and crayfish in four regulated headwater streams before and after the release of summer-autumn environmental flows, and in four nearby unregulated streams, to determine whether their abundances increased in response to flow releases. Historical data of fish and crayfish occurrence spanning a 30 year period was compared with contemporary data (electrofishing surveys, Victoria Range, Australia; summer 2008 to summer 2010) to assess the longer-term effects of regulation and drought. Although fish were recorded in regulated streams before 1996, they were not recorded in the present study upstream or downstream of weirs despite recent flow releases. Crayfish (Geocharax sp. nov. 1) remained in the regulated streams throughout the study, but did not become more abundant in response to flow releases. In contrast, native fish (Gadopsis marmoratus, Galaxias oliros, Galaxias maculatus) and crayfish remained present in unregulated streams, despite prolonged drought conditions during 2006-2010, and the assemblages of each of these streams remained essentially unchanged over the 30 year period. Flow release volumes may have been too small or have operated for an insufficient time to allow fish to recolonise regulated streams. Barriers to dispersal may also be preventing recolonisation. Indefinite continuation of annual flow releases, that prevent the unnatural cessation of flow caused by weirs, may eventually facilitate upstream movement of fish and crayfish in regulated channels; but other human-made dispersal barriers downstream need to be identified and ameliorated, to allow native fish to fulfil their life cycles in these headwater streams.

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Water supply and demand planning is often conducted independently of social and economic strategies. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to modelling urban water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for investment responses to low reservoir levels. This paper addresses this gap, and presents a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages of water grids, by adding inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. The model, applied in the south-east Queensland region in Australia, enables simulation of alternatives and analysis of stocks and flows around a grid or portfolio of bulk supplies including an increasing proportion of rain-independent desalination plants. Such rain-independent water production plants complement the rain-dependent sources in the region and can potentially offer indefinite water security at a price. The study also shows how an alternative temporary drought pricing regime not only defers costly bulk supply infrastructure but actually generates greater price stability than traditional pricing approaches. The model has implications for water supply planners seeking to pro-actively plan, justify and finance portfolios of rain-dependent and rain-independent bulk water supply infrastructure. Interestingly, the modelling showed that a temporary drought pricing regime not only lowers the frequency and severity of water insecurity events but also reduces the long-run marginal cost of water supply for the region when compared to traditional reactive planning approaches that focus on restrictions to affect demand in scarcity periods.

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Lectrides varians (Mosely) is a large, ecologically-important, caddisfly found in perennial and intermittent streams throughout much of eastern Australia. We conducted a population genetic analysis to investigate the dispersal potential of L. varians, building on previous works that have assessed life-history traits associated with drought resistance. Genetic analyses of L. varians from the Grampians region of Victoria, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data, revealed extensive gene flow and a lack of genetic structure across the sample range (ΦST = 0.04). This suggests that the species is a strong disperser and is likely to be resilient to increased drying and habitat fragmentation under climate change considering other known resistance traits. However, during this study, two divergent genotypes were identified, indicating a potential species complex. A comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of L. varians across its current range was subsequently performed, confirming the species is indeed paraphyletic, consisting of one lineage that is restricted to the Grampians National Park and the other being widespread throughout south-eastern Australia. Further analyses revealed consistent morphological differences between these lineages supporting the notion that L. varians is a species complex. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to conservation and taxonomy of this important invertebrate group.

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In intermittently open estuaries, the sources of organic matter sustaining benthic invertebrates are likely to vary seasonally, particularly between periods of connection and disconnection with the ocean and higher and lower freshwater flows. This study investigated the contribution of allochthonous and autochthonous primary production to the diet of representative invertebrate species using stable isotope analysis (SIA) during the austral summer and winter (2008, 2009) in an intermittently open estuary on the south-eastern coast of Australia. As the study was conducted towards the end of a prolonged period of drought, a reduced influence of freshwater/terrestrial organic matter was expected. Sampling was conducted along an estuarine gradient, including upper, middle and lower reaches and showed that the majority of assimilated organic matter was derived from autochthonous estuarine food sources. Additionally, there was an input of allochthonous organic matter, which varied along the length of the estuary, indicated by distinct longitudinal trends in carbon and nitrogen stable isotope signatures along the estuarine gradient. Marine seaweed contributed to invertebrate diets in the lower reaches of the estuary, while freshwater/terrestrial organic matter had increased influence in the upper reaches. Suspension-feeding invertebrates derived large parts of their diet from freshwater/terrestrial material, despite flows being greatly reduced in comparison with non-drought years.

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Courvisanos J., Jain A. and Mardaneh K. Economic resilience of regions under crises: a study of the Australian economy, Regional Studies. Identifying patterns of economic resilience in regions by industry categories is the focus of this paper. Patterns emerge from adaptive capacity in four distinct functional groups of local government regions in Australia, in respect of their resilience from shocks on specific industries. A model of regional adaptive cycles around four sequential phases – reorganization, exploitation, conservation and release – is adopted as the framework for recognizing such patterns. A data-mining method utilizes a k-means algorithm to evaluate the impact of two major shocks – a 13-year drought and the Global Financial Crisis – on four functional groups of regions, using census data from 2001, 2006 and 2011.

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Rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) latex, the source of natural rubber, is synthesised in the cytoplasm of laticifers. Efficient water inflow into laticifers is crucial for latex flow and production since it is the determinant of the total solid content of latex and its fluidity after tapping. As the mature laticifer vessel rings are devoid of plasmodesmata, water exchange between laticifers and surrounding cells is believed to be governed by plasma membrane intrinsic proteins (PIPs). To identify the most important PIP aquaporin in the water balance of laticifers, the transcriptional profiles of ten-latex-expressed PIPs were analysed. One of the most abundant transcripts, designated HbPIP2;3, was characterised in this study. When tested in Xenopus laevis oocytes HbPIP2;3 showed a high efficiency in increasing plasmalemma water conductance. Expression analysis indicated that the HbPIP2;3 gene was preferentially expressed in latex, and the transcripts were up-regulated by both wounding and exogenously applied Ethrel (a commonly-used ethylene releaser). Although regular tapping up-regulated the expression of HbPIP2;3 during the first few tappings of the virginal rubber trees, the transcriptional kinetics of HbPIP2;3 to Ethrel stimulation in the regularly tapped tree exhibited a similar pattern to that of the previously reported HbPIP2;1 in the virginal rubber trees. Furthermore, the mRNA level of HbPIP2;3 was associated with clonal yield potential and the Ethrel stimulation response. Together, these results have revealed the central regulatory role of HbPIP2;3 in laticifer water balance and ethylene stimulation of latex production in Hevea.

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 Questions: Do nurse plant interactions significantly influence understorey vegetation diversity in a large, semi-arid, shrub-dominated wetland? How do the modes and net effects of nurse plant interactions vary spatially along a flood frequency gradient, and temporally in response to drying? Location: Narran Lakes Ramsar site, New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Microhabitat characteristics, understorey vegetation and germinable soil seed banks were investigated in shrub and open habitats across a flood frequency gradient in a large, semi-arid wetland dominated by open shrubland under productive conditions following floodwater recession and again following 6 mo of drought. Split-plot ANOVA and multivariate analyses were used to determine the effects of shrubs on microhabitat character, understorey vegetation cover, species diversity, richness and composition and germinable soil seed banks. Results: Microhabitat characteristics, including canopy cover, litter cover and soil character, all differed between shrub and open habitats, especially in the most frequently flooded sites. Under productive conditions following flooding, lignum shrubs suppressed understorey vegetation cover but increased species richness at the site scale across the flood frequency gradient and, in the most frequently flooded sites, supported higher species density at a microhabitat scale. Under dry conditions, lignum shrubs had a positive effect on understorey vegetation cover, species richness and species density across the flood frequency gradient, but particularly in frequently flooded sites. A significant difference in soil seed bank composition between shrub and open habitats was only observed in frequently flooded sites. Conclusions: Nurse plant interactions appear to play an important role in determining understorey vegetation diversity in the lignum shrubland of the Narran Lakes wetland system. The modes and net effects of these nurse plant interactions vary in space and time in relation to flood history and drying. Positive interactions, probably involving microhabitat amelioration, appear to be particularly important to plant diversity and abundance under dry conditions. Under more favourable wetter conditions, lignum shrubs also contribute to understorey vegetation diversity by facilitating the establishment of different species than those dominating open habitats. Our findings have implications for the management of perennial shrubs and hydrological regimes in such wetlands.

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Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. Fire regimes (including fire frequency, intensity, season and type of fire) influence the status of species by altering habitat suitability at the site scale, and by creating heterogeneity at the landscape scale. The relative effects of site and landscape-scale fire attributes on animal species are rarely examined together. Such knowledge is important, given that fire regimes are sensitive to changing land management practices; and that fires are predicted to become larger and more frequent in some regions as a result of climate change. Here, we tested the relative influence of elements of the fire regime (fire severity, fire history) at the site-scale, and the landscape context (extent of surrounding unburnt forest, fire heterogeneity) on the occurrence of native terrestrial mammals after severe wildfire in south-eastern Australia. We conducted surveys by using automatically triggered, infrared cameras at 80 sites in fire-prone eucalypt forests, 2-3. years post-wildfire. Thirteen native mammal species were recorded, eight of which were detected with sufficient frequency for analysis. Most species were widespread (35-90% of sites) and recorded in all fire severity classes. Fire effects at the site-level were more influential than landscape context effects arising from heterogeneity in the fire regime (e.g. extent of surrounding unburnt forest). Fire severity was the most influential of the fire-regime elements investigated, but it affected different species in different ways. This study highlights three main points relevant to conservation of terrestrial mammals after wildfire. First, spatial variation in fire severity associated with wildfire (ranging from unburned to severely burned stands) is an important contributor to the post-fire status of species. Second, post-fire environmental conditions are significant: here, rapid regeneration of vegetation following drought-breaking rains greatly influenced the suitability of post-fire habitats. Third, it is valuable to consider the effects of the fire regime at multiple scales, including both the site (forest stand) and its landscape context. Insights from short-term surveys, such as this, will be enhanced by complementary longitudinal studies, especially where they encompass environmental variation through the post-fire succession.

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With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

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As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

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In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

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The Enriquillo and Azuei are saltwater lakes located in a closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, these have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of Lake Enriquillo presented a surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984, gradually decreasing to 172 km2 in 1996. The surface area of the lake reached its lowest point in the satellite observation record in 2004, at 165 km2. Then the recent growth of the lake began reaching its 1984 size by 2006. Based on surface area measurement for June and July 2013, Lake Enriquillo has a surface area of ~358 km2. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 116 km2 in 1984 and 134 km2in 2013, an overall 15.8% increase in 30 years. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. The overall goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes and their catchment area using satellite and ground observations and a regional atmospheric-hydrologic modeling approach. Data analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions. Historical data show precipitation, land surface temperature and humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST), increasing over region during the past decades. Salinity levels have also been decreasing by more than 30% from previously reported baseline levels. Here we present a summary of the historical data obtained, new sensors deployed in the sourrounding sierras and the lakes, and the integrated modeling exercises. As well as the challenges of gathering, storing, sharing, and analyzing this large volumen of data in a remote location from such a diverse number of sources.