What is the relationship between fear of falling and gait in well-functioning older persons aged 65 to 70 years?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between fear of falling and gait performance in well-functioning older persons. DESIGN: Survey. SETTING: Community. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects (N=860, aged 65-70y) were a subsample of participants enrolled in a cohort study who underwent gait measurements. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fear of falling and its severity were assessed by 2 questions about fear and related activity restriction. Gait performance, including gait variability, was measured using body-fixed sensors. RESULTS: Overall, 29.6% (210/860) of the participants reported fear of falling, with 5.2% (45/860) reporting activity restriction. Fear of falling was associated with reduced gait performance, including increased gait variability. A gradient in gait performance was observed from participants without fear to those reporting fear without activity restriction and those reporting both fear and activity restriction. For instance, stride velocity decreased from 1.15+/-.15 to 1.11+/-.17 to 1.00+/-.19 m/s (P<.001) in participants without fear, with fear but no activity restriction and with fear and activity restriction, respectively. In multivariate analysis, fear of falling with activity restriction remained associated with reduced gait performance, independent of sex, comorbidity, functional status, falls history, and depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In these well-functioning older people, those reporting fear of falling with activity restriction had reduced gait performance and increased gait variability, independent of health and functional status. These relationships suggest that early interventions targeting fear of falling might potentially help to prevent its adverse consequences on mobility and function in similar populations.

Malaria vaccine candidate: design of a multivalent subunit α-helical coiled coil poly-epitope.

A new strategy for the rapid identification of new malaria antigens based on protein structural motifs was previously described. We identified and evaluated the malaria vaccine potential of fragments of several malaria antigens containing α-helical coiled coil protein motifs. By taking advantage of the relatively short size of these structural fragments, we constructed different poly-epitopes in which 3 or 4 of these segments were joined together via a non-immunogenic linker. Only peptides that are targets of human antibodies with anti-parasite in vitro biological activities were incorporated. One of the constructs, P181, was well recognized by sera and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of adults living in malaria-endemic areas. Affinity purified antigen-specific human antibodies and sera from P181-immunized mice recognised native proteins on malaria-infected erythrocytes in both immunofluorescence and western blot assays. In addition, specific antibodies inhibited parasite development in an antibody dependent cellular inhibition (ADCI) assay. Naturally induced antigen-specific human antibodies were at high titers and associated with clinical protection from malaria in longitudinal follow-up studies in Senegal.

Attitudes of detainees and prison staff towards tobacco control policy in Switzerland: a qualitative interview study.

PURPOSE: To explore detainees and staff's attitudes towards tobacco use, in order to assist prison administrators to develop an ethically acceptable tobacco control policy based on stakeholders' opinion. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with 31 prisoners and 27 staff prior (T1) and after the implementation (T2) of a new smoke-free regulation (2009) in a Swiss male post-trial prison consisting of 120 detainees and 120 employees. RESULTS: At T1, smoking was allowed in common indoor rooms and most working places. Both groups of participants expressed the need for a more uniform and stricter regulation, with general opposition towards a total smoking ban. Expressed fears and difficulties regarding a stricter regulation were increased stress on detainees and strain on staff, violence, riots, loss of control on detainees, and changes in social life. At T2, participants expressed predominantly satisfaction. They reported reduction in their own tobacco use and a better protection against second-hand smoke. However, enforcement was incomplete. The debate was felt as being concentrated on regulation only, leaving aside the subject of tobacco reduction or cessation support. CONCLUSION: Besides an appropriate smoke-free regulation, further developments are necessary in order to have a comprehensive tobacco control policy in prisons.

LdShake: learning design solutions sharing and co-edition

Two important challenges that teachers are currently facing are the sharing and the collaborative authoring of their learning design solutions, such as didactical units and learning materials. On the one hand, there are tools that can be used for the creation of design solutions and only some of them facilitate the co-edition. However, they do not incorporate mechanisms that support the sharing of the designs between teachers. On the other hand, there are tools that serve as repositories of educational resources but they do not enable the authoring of the designs. In this paper we present LdShake, a web tool whose novelty is focused on the combined support for the social sharing and co-edition of learning design solutions within communities of teachers. Teachers can create and share learning designs with other teachers using different access rights so that they can read, comment or co-edit the designs. Therefore, each design solution is associated to a group of teachers able to work on its definition, and another group that can only see the design. The tool is generic in that it allows the creation of designs based on any pedagogical approach. However, it can be particularized in instances providing pre-formatted designs structured according to a specific didactic method (such as Problem-Based Learning, PBL). A particularized LdShake instance has been used in the context of Human Biology studies where teams of teachers are required to work together in the design of PBL solutions. A controlled user study, that compares the use of a generic LdShake and a Moodle system, configured to enable the creation and sharing of designs, has been also carried out. The combined results of the real and controlled studies show that the social structure, and the commenting, co-edition and publishing features of LdShake provide a useful, effective and usable approach for facilitating teachers' teamwork.

Concrete Materials Storage, Mixing and Delivery, November 2004

Proper storage practices are critical to protect materials from intermingling, contamination, or degradation, and to maintain consistent aggregate gradation throughout a project. Concrete Paving Workforce Reference no.1

Sustained release of nanosized complexes of polyethylenimine and anti-TGF-beta 2 oligonucleotide improves the outcome of glaucoma surgery.

The purpose of this study was to design microspheres combining sustained delivery and enhanced intracellular penetration for ocular administration of antisense oligonucleotides. Nanosized complexes of antisense TGF-beta2 phosphorothioate oligonucleotides (PS-ODN) with polyethylenimine (PEI), and naked PS-ODN were encapsulated into poly(lactide-co-glycolide) microspheres prepared by the double-emulsion solvent evaporation method. The PS-ODN was introduced either naked or complexed in the inner aqueous phase of the first emulsion. We observed a marked influence of microsphere composition on porosity, size distribution and PS-ODN encapsulation efficiency. Mainly, the presence of PEI induced the formation of large pores observed onto microsphere surface. Introduction of NaCl in the outer aqueous phase increased the encapsulation efficiency and reduced microsphere porosity. In vitro release kinetic of PS-ODN was also investigated. Clearly, the higher the porosity, the faster was the release and the higher was the burst effect. Using an analytical solution of Fick's second law of diffusion, it was shown that the early phase of PS-ODN and PS-ODN-PEI complex release was primarily controlled by pure diffusion, irrespectively of the type of microsphere. Finally, microspheres containing antisense TGF-beta2 nanosized complexes were shown, after subconjunctival administration to rabbit, to significantly increase intracellular penetration of ODN in conjunctival cells and subsequently to improve bleb survival in a rabbit experimental model of filtering surgery. These results open up interesting prospective for the local controlled delivery of genetic material into the eye.

Intrauterine growth restriction and absent or reverse end-diastolic blood flow in umbilical artery (Doppler class II or III): A retrospective study of short- and long-term fetal morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Absent or reverse end-diastolic flow (Doppler II/III) in umbilical artery is correlated with poor perinatal outcome, particularly in intrauterine growth restricted (IUGR) fetuses. The optimal timing of delivery is still controversial. We studied the short- and long-term morbidity and mortality among these children associated with our defined management. STUDY DESIGN: Sixty-nine IUGR fetuses with umbilical Doppler II/III were divided into three groups; Group 1, severe early IUGR, no therapeutic intervention (n = 7); Group 2, fetuses with pathological biophysical profile, immediate delivery (n = 35); Group 3, fetuses for which expectant management had been decided (n = 27). RESULTS: In Group 1, stillbirth was observed after a mean delay of 6.3 days. Group 2 delivered at an average of 31.6 weeks and two died in the neonatal period (6%). In Group 3 after a mean delay of 8 days, average gestational age at delivery was 31.7 weeks; two intra uterine and four perinatal deaths were observed (22%). Long-term follow-up revealed no sequelae in 25/31 (81%) and 15/18 (83%), and major handicap occurred in 1 (3%) and 2 patients (11%), respectively, for Groups 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Fetal mortality was observed in 22% of this high risk group. After a mean period of follow-up of 5 years, 82% of infants showed no sequelae. According to our management, IUGR associated with umbilical Doppler II or III does not show any benefit from an expectant management in term of long-term morbidity.

Multiple interacting cell death mechanisms in the mediation of excitotoxicity and ischemic brain damage: A challenge for neuroprotection.

There is currently no approved neuroprotective pharmacotherapy for acute conditions such as stroke and cerebral asphyxia. One of the reasons for this may be the multiplicity of cell death mechanisms, because inhibition of a particular mechanism leaves the brain vulnerable to alternative ones. It is therefore essential to understand the different cell death mechanisms and their interactions. We here review the multiple signaling pathways underlying each of the three main morphological types of cell death - apoptosis, autophagic cell death and necrosis - emphasizing their importance in the neuronal death that occurs during cerebral ischemia and hypoxia-ischemia, and we analyze the interactions between the different mechanisms. Finally, we discuss the implications of the multiplicity of cell death mechanisms for the design of neuroprotective strategies.

The emergence of biofuels and the co-movement between crude oil and agricultural prices

Biofuels are becoming an alternative to non-renewable energy sources but we know little about the economic mechanisms influencing their prices. This paper studies the interrelationships between the spot prices of oil and those of agricultural commodities used as biofuel feedstocks. Using daily data since 1988, we identify a co-movement after 2005 that does not appear for other food-related commodities and is not due to general economic variables. We also find traces of the co-movement in the prices of a large biofuel stock. The results amount to the first systematic piece of empirical evidence linking spot oil and agricultural markets via the emergence of biofuels.

Optimal Design of Permit Markets with an Ex Ante Pollution Target, August 2006

In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

Reconciliation of metabolites and biochemical reactions for metabolic networks.

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions are now routinely used in the study of metabolic pathways, their evolution and design. The development of such reconstructions involves the integration of information on reactions and metabolites from the scientific literature as well as public databases and existing genome-scale metabolic models. The reconciliation of discrepancies between data from these sources generally requires significant manual curation, which constitutes a major obstacle in efforts to develop and apply genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions. In this work, we discuss some of the major difficulties encountered in the mapping and reconciliation of metabolic resources and review three recent initiatives that aim to accelerate this process, namely BKM-react, MetRxn and MNXref (presented in this article). Each of these resources provides a pre-compiled reconciliation of many of the most commonly used metabolic resources. By reducing the time required for manual curation of metabolite and reaction discrepancies, these resources aim to accelerate the development and application of high-quality genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions and models.

The Effects of Headcut and Knickpoint Propagation on Bridges in Iowa, October 2008

Headcuts (known also as primary knickpoints) and knickpoints (known also as secondary knickpoints) have been found to contribute to the accelerated riverbed degradation problem in the midwestern United States. Step-changes that occur at the head of channel networks are referred to as headcuts, and those that occur within the confines of channel banks are referred to as knickpoints. The formation of headcuts and knickpoints and their upstream migration have been linked to the over-steepening of stream reaches when the flow plunges to the bed and creates a plunge pool. Secondary flow currents and seepage are believed to be some other parameters contributing to the formation and evolution of headcuts and knickpoints. Ongoing research suggests that headcuts and knickpoints, where they form and migrate, may account for 60% (or more) of the bed erosion in the streams. Based on preliminary observations, there is a strong indication that headcuts and knickpoints can also have a greater influence on flow thalweg alignment (line of deepest flow) for small rivers. A shift in thalweg toward a riverbank or embankment is usually a prime factor contributing to riverbank erosion and scour.

Of housing and politics : mapping political opportunities for mobilising in Bangalore, India

Quelles sont les conditions pour l'émergence d'une mobilisation sociale en faveur du logement convenable dans la métropole de Bangalore (Inde)? Cette question, qui est au coeur de cette thèse, est particulièrement pertinente dans le contexte d'une ville où 1,7 million de personnes, soit un cinquième de la population, vit dans des bidonvilles. L'absence d'un mouvement mettant en cause l'échec des politiques publiques du logement est intéressante dans la mesure où l'Inde a hérité un système de gouvernance colonial et d'une tradition de mouvements sociaux. Pour répondre à ce questionnement, un cadre théorique issu de la littérature sur les mouvements sociaux est développé. Il s'articule autour des liens entre les opportunités politiques au niveau macro et les répertoires d'action des organisations de mouvement social (OMS) au niveau méso, de la tension entre la formalité de la loi et des politiques publiques et l'informalité des circuits d'échange, de la corruption et du clientélisme, et enfin, se focalise sur les systèmes de discours de caste et de la citoyenneté et de leur concrétisation dans des systèmes d'organisations et de réseaux sociaux. Ce cadre théorique permet d'étudier empiriquement la question à travers quatre OMS dans la ville de Bangalore. Les résultats mettent en avant l'existence de mécanismes complexes. Les opportunités politiques formelles n'étant ouvertes que sur le plan rhétorique, elles ne peuvent être véritablement utilisées que par des moyens légaux ou contentieux, ce qui nécessite des compétences sociales dont la plupart des habitants des bidonvilles sont dépourvus. L'inadéquation entre les ressources à disposition pour les logements sociaux et les besoins très importants des pauvres, donne un poids politique considérable aux acteurs en charge de l'attribution de ces ressources rares. Cet état de fait a des répercussions sur la politique électorale. Les habitants des bidonvilles représentant un poids électoral important, ils sont mobilisés à travers de pratiques clientélistes. La corruption et le clientélisme se nourrissent mutuellement pour maintenir une certaine dépendance des habitants. Les OMS qui développent un répertoire discursif remettant en cause le système de caste et qui encouragent une conscience citoyenne, se sont avérées les plus durables pour résister à la cooptation des forces politiques. Cette recherche empirique met en lumière l'inadéquation entre les prescriptions formelles dans le domaine de la gouvernance des besoins humains, tels que le logement, et les pratiques réelles sur le terrain. Cette recherche appelle à réfléchir au-delà de la diffusion du discours sur la « bonne gouvernance » vers des formes de « gouvernance vernaculaire » qui prendrait au sérieux l'informalité en développant une compréhension des avantages à court terme pour les personnes marginalisées dans la ville et les effets à long terme sur la pratique démocratique. - What are the conditions for the emergence of a social movement on the issue of adequate housing in the metropolitan city of Bangalore (India)? This question is at the heart of this dissertation and is particularly pertinent against the background that an estimated 1.7 million or about 20% of the city's population lives in slums. The absence of a movement addressing the failure of public housing policy despite India having inherited colonial systems of governance and traditions of movement is noteworthy. Answers are sought within a theoretical framework stemming from social movement theories that incorporates three linkages articulating around: Macro-level political opportunities and meso-level action repertoires of social movement organisations (SMOs), tensions between the formality of law, policy and the informality of exchange circuits of corruption and clientelism and finally around systems of discourses of caste and citizenship and their instantiation in concrete systems of social organisations and networks. This thesis is empirically investigated through a qualitative case study research design involving four sampled social movement organisations. The results bring complex mechanisms to the fore. Formal political opportunities are only rhetorically open and have to be cracked through legal weaponry or contentious escalation, which requires considerable social skills that slum-dwellers often lack. The inadequacy between the few housing resources and the vast number of slum-dwellers transform housing benefits and urban service provisions into political currency. Such a state of affairs has serious repercussions on conditions for mobilisation. They become imbricated with electoral logic, in which slum-dwellers represent large vote-banks and where corruption and clientelism feed each other to maintain a certain dependency of the poor. SMOs deploying a discursive repertoire that questioned the caste system and encouraged a pursuit of citizenship proved to be the most sustainable to resist co-option from political forces. This empirical investigation brings to light the mismatch between the formal prescriptions in the domain of the governance of basic human needs such as housing and the real practices on the ground. This research calls to reflect beyond the inadequacy of the diffused « good governance » discourse towards forms of « vernacular governance » that take informality seriously in understanding the short-term benefits for the marginalised in the city and the long-term effects on democratic practice.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Application of a support system to the design of wastewater treatment plants

This paper presents a case study that explores the advantages that can be derived from the use of a design support system during the design of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). With this objective in mind a simplified but plausible WWTP design case study has been generated with KBDS, a computer-based support system that maintains a historical record of the design process. The study shows how, by employing such a historical record, it is possible to: (1) rank different design proposals responding to a design problem; (2) study the influence of changing the weight of the arguments used in the selection of the most adequate proposal; (3) take advantage of keywords to assist the designer in the search of specific items within the historical records; (4) evaluate automatically thecompliance of alternative design proposals with respect to the design objectives; (5) verify the validity of previous decisions after the modification of the current constraints or specifications; (6) re-use the design records when upgrading an existing WWTP or when designing similar facilities; (7) generate documentation of the decision making process; and (8) associate a variety of documents as annotations to any component in the design history. The paper also shows one possible future role of design support systems as they outgrow their current reactive role as repositories of historical information and start to proactively support the generation of new knowledge during the design process