The radiative effect of a fir canopy on a snowpack

Models of snow processes in areas of possible large-scale change need to be site independent and physically based. Here, the accumulation and ablation of the seasonal snow cover beneath a fir canopy has been simulated with a new physically based snow-soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme (Snow-SVAT) called SNOWCAN. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically based multilayer snow model. Simple representations of other forest effects were included. These include the reduction of wind speed and hence turbulent transfer beneath the canopy, sublimation of intercepted snow, and deposition of debris on the surface. This paper tests this new modeling approach fully at a fir site within Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. Model parameters were determined at an open site and subsequently applied to the fir site. SNOWCAN was evaluated using measurements of snow depth, subcanopy solar and thermal radiation, and snowpack profiles of temperature, density, and grain size. Simulations showed good agreement with observations (e.g., fir site snow depth was estimated over the season with r(2) = 0.96), generally to within measurement error. However, the simulated temperature profiles were less accurate after a melt-freeze event, when the temperature discrepancy resulted from underestimation of the rate of liquid water flow and/or the rate of refreeze. This indicates both that the general modeling approach is applicable and that a still more complete representation of liquid water in the snowpack will be important.

Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

The magma budget of Volcan Arenal, Costa Rica from 1980 to 2004

Using topographic data collected by radar interferometry, stereo-photogrammetry, and field survey we have measured the changing surface of Volcan Arenal in Costa Rica over the period from 1980 to 2004. During this time this young volcano has mainly effused basaltic andesite lava, continuing the activity that began in 1968. Explosive products form only a few percent of the volumetric output. We have calculated digital elevation models for the years 1961, 1988 and 1997 and modified existing models for 2000 and 2004. From these we have estimated the volume of lava effused and coupled this with the data presented by an earlier study for 1968-1980. We find that a dense rock equivalent volume of 551 M m(3) was effused from 1968 to 2004. The dense rock equivalent effusion rate fell from about 2 m(3) s(-1) to about 0.1-0.2 m(3) s(-1) over the same period, with an average rate of about 0.5 m(3) s(-1). Between 1980 and 2004, the average effusion rate was 0.36 m(3) s(-1), a similar rate to that measured between 1974 and 1980. There have been two significant deviations from this long-term rate. The effusion rate increased from 1984 to 1991, at the same time as explosivity increased. After a period of moderate effusion rates in the 1990s, the rate fell to lower levels around 1999. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground deformation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat during 1998-2000 measured by radar interferometry and GPS

We examine the motion of the ground surface on the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2000 using radar interferometry (InSAR). To minimise the effects of variable atmospheric water vapour on the InSAR measurements we use independently-derived measurements of the radar path delay from six continuous GPS receivers. The surfaces providing a measurable inter-ferometric signal are those on pyroclastic flow deposits, mainly emplaced in 1997. Three types of surface motion can be discriminated. Firstly, the surfaces of thick, valley-filling deposits subsided at rates of 150-120 mm/year in the year after emplacement to 50-30 mm/year two years later. This must be due to contraction and settling effects during cooling. The second type is the near-field motion localised within about one kilometre of the dome. Both subsidence and uplift events are seen and though the former could be due to surface gravitational effects, the latter may reflect shallow (< 1 km) pressurisation effects within the conduit/dome. Far-field motions of the surface away from the deeply buried valleys are interpreted as crustal strains. Because the flux of magma to the surface stopped from March 1998 to November 1999 and then resumed from November 1999 through 2000, we use InSAR data from these two periods to test the crustal strain behaviour of three models of magma supply: open, depleting and unbalanced. The InSAR observations of strain gradients of 75-80 mm/year/krn uplift during the period of quiescence on the western side of the volcano are consistent with an unbalanced model in which magma supply into a crustal magma chamber continues during quiescence, raising chamber pressure that is then released upon resumption of effusion. GPS motion vectors agree qualitatively with the InSAR displacements but are of smaller magnitude. The discrepancy may be due to inaccurate compensation for atmospheric delays in the InSAR data. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.