Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Modeling and simulation of the anode in direct ethanol fuels cells

Mathematical modeling has been extensively applied to the study and development of fuel cells. In this work, the objective is to characterize a mechanistic model for the anode of a direct ethanol fuel cell and perform appropriate simulations. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) (and the Chemical Engineering Module) was used in this work. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) is an interactive environment for modeling scientific and engineering applications using partial differential equations (PDEs). Based on the finite element method, it provides speed and accuracy for several applications. The mechanistic model developed here can supply details of the physical system, such as the concentration profiles of the components within the anode and the coverage of the adsorbed species on the electrode surface. Also, the anode overpotential-current relationship can be obtained. To validate the anode model presented in this paper, experimental data obtained with a single fuel cell operating with an ethanol solution at the anode were used. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimised dose titration for Duodopatreatment based on simulation experiments– implementation in a decision supportsystem

The aim of this work was to design a set of rules for levodopa infusion dose adjustment in Parkinson’s disease based on a simulation experiments. Using this simulator, optimal infusions dose in different conditions were calculated. There are seven conditions (-3 to +3)appearing in a rating scale for Parkinson’s disease patients. By finding mean of the differences between conditions and optimal dose, two sets of rules were designed. The set of rules was optimized by several testing. Usefulness for optimizing the titration procedure of new infusion patients based on rule-based reasoning was investigated. Results show that both of the number of the steps and the errors for finding optimal dose was shorten by new rules. At last, the dose predicted with new rules well on each single occasion of majority of patients in simulation experiments.

Solar Energy assessment based on weather station data for direct site monitoring in Indonesia

This thesis evaluates different sites for a weather measurement system and a suitable PV- simulation for University of Surabaya (UBAYA) in Indonesia/Java. The weather station is able to monitor all common weather phenomena including solar insolation. It is planned to use the data for scientific and educational purposes in the renewable energy studies. During evaluation and installation it falls into place that official specifications from global meteorological organizations could not be meet for some sensors caused by the conditions of UBAYA campus. After arranging the hardware the weather at the site was monitored for period of time. A comparison with different official sources from ground based and satellite bases measurements showed differences in wind and solar radiation. In some cases the monthly average solar insolation was deviating 42 % for satellite-based measurements. For the ground based it was less than 10 %. The average wind speed has a difference of 33 % compared to a source, which evaluated the wind power in Surabaya. The wind direction shows instabilities towards east compared with data from local weather station at the airport. PSET has the chance to get some investments to investigate photovoltaic on there own roof. With several simulations a suitable roof direction and the yearly and monthly outputs are shown. With a 7.7 kWpeak PV installation with the latest crystalline technology on the market 8.82 MWh/year could be achieved with weather data from 2012. Thin film technology could increase the value up to 9.13 MWh/year. However, the roofs have enough area to install PV. Finally the low price of electricity in Indonesia makes it not worth to feed in the energy into the public grid.

System Integration of PV/T Collectors in Solar Cooling Systems

The demand for cooling and air-conditioning of building is increasingly ever growing. This increase is mostly due to population and economic growth in developing countries, and also desire for a higher quality of thermal comfort. Increase in the use of conventional cooling systems results in larger carbon footprint and more greenhouse gases considering their higher electricity consumption, and it occasionally creates peaks in electricity demand from power supply grid. Solar energy as a renewable energy source is an alternative to drive the cooling machines since the cooling load is generally high when solar radiation is high. This thesis examines the performance of PV/T solar collector manufactured by Solarus company in a solar cooling system for an office building in Dubai, New Delhi, Los Angeles and Cape Town. The study is carried out by analyzing climate data and the requirements for thermal comfort in office buildings. Cooling systems strongly depend on weather conditions and local climate. Cooling load of buildings depend on many parameters such as ambient temperature, indoor comfort temperature, solar gain to the building and internal gains including; number of occupant and electrical devices. The simulations were carried out by selecting a suitable thermally driven chiller and modeling it with PV/T solar collector in Polysun software. Fractional primary energy saving and solar fraction were introduced as key figures of the project to evaluate the performance of cooling system. Several parametric studies and simulations were determined according to PV/T aperture area and hot water storage tank volume. The fractional primary energy saving analysis revealed that thermally driven chillers, particularly adsorption chillers are not suitable to be utilizing in small size of solar cooling systems in hot and tropic climates such as Dubai and New Delhi. Adsorption chillers require more thermal energy to meet the cooling load in hot and dry climates. The adsorption chillers operate in their full capacity and in higher coefficient of performance when they run in a moderate climate since they can properly reject the exhaust heat. The simulation results also indicated that PV/T solar collector have higher efficiency in warmer climates, however it requires a larger size of PV/T collectors to supply the thermally driven chillers for providing cooling in hot climates. Therefore using an electrical chiller as backup gives much better results in terms of primary energy savings, since PV/T electrical production also can be used for backup electrical chiller in a net metering mechanism.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

A simplified heat pump model for use in solar plus heat pump system simulation studies

Solar plus heat pump systems are often very complex in design, with sometimes special heat pump arrangements and control. Therefore detailed heat pump models can give very slow system simulations and still not so accurate results compared to real heat pump performance in a system. The idea here is to start from a standard measured performance map of test points for a heat pump according to EN 14825 and then determine characteristic parameters for a simplified correlation based model of the heat pump. By plotting heat pump test data in different ways including power input and output form and not only as COP, a simplified relation could be seen. By using the same methodology as in the EN 12975 QDT part in the collector test standard it could be shown that a very simple model could describe the heat pump test data very accurately, by identifying 4 parameters in the correlation equation found. © 2012 The Authors.

Simulation model using meta heuristic algorithms for achieving optimal arrangement of storage bins in a sawmill yard

Bin planning (arrangements) is a key factor in the timber industry. Improper planning of the storage bins may lead to inefficient transportation of resources, which threaten the overall efficiency and thereby limit the profit margins of sawmills. To address this challenge, a simulation model has been developed. However, as numerous alternatives are available for arranging bins, simulating all possibilities will take an enormous amount of time and it is computationally infeasible. A discrete-event simulation model incorporating meta-heuristic algorithms has therefore been investigated in this study. Preliminary investigations indicate that the results achieved by GA based simulation model are promising and better than the other meta-heuristic algorithm. Further, a sensitivity analysis has been done on the GA based optimal arrangement which contributes to gaining insights and knowledge about the real system that ultimately leads to improved and enhanced efficiency in sawmill yards. It is expected that the results achieved in the work will support timber industries in making optimal decisions with respect to arrangement of storage bins in a sawmill yard.

Numerical Simulation Of Sediment Transport And Bedmorphology Around A Hydraulic Structure On A River

Scour around hydraulic structures is a critical problem in hydraulic engineering. Under prediction of scour depth may lead to costly failures of the structure, while over prediction might result in unnecessary costs. Unfortunately, up-to-date empirical scour prediction formulas are based on laboratory experiments that are not always able to reproduce field conditions due to complicated geometry of rivers and temporal and spatial scales of a physical model. However, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools can perform using real field dimensions and operating conditions to predict sediment scour around hydraulic structures. In Korea, after completing the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, several new weirs have been built across Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan Rivers. Consequently, sediment deposition and bed erosion around such structures have became a major issue in these four rivers. In this study, an application of an open source CFD software package, the TELEMAC-MASCARET, to simulate sediment transport and bed morphology around Gangjeong weir, which is the largest multipurpose weir built on Nakdong River. A real bathymetry of the river and a geometry of the weir have been implemented into the numerical model. The numerical simulation is carried out with a real hydrograph at the upstream boundary. The bedmorphology obtained from the numerical results has been validated against field observation data, and a maximum of simulated scour depth is compared with the results obtained by empirical formulas of Hoffmans. Agreement between numerical computations, observed data and empirical formulas is judged to be satisfactory on all major comparisons. The outcome of this study does not only point out the locations where deposition and erosion might take place depending on the weir gate operation, but also analyzes the mechanism of formation and evolution of scour holes after the weir gates.

PDA, Circulation, and Over-Budget Requests: Harnessing Data to Inform Library Strategies

This article presents the data-rich findings of an experiment with enlisting patron-driven/demand-driven acquisitions (DDA) of ebooks in two ways. The first experiment entailed comparison of DDA eBook usage against newly ordered hardcopy materials’ circulation, both overall and ebook vs. print usage within the same subject areas. Secondly, this study experimented with DDA ebooks as a backup plan for unfunded requests left over at the end of the fiscal year.

Bullied by Budgets, Pushed by Patrons, Driven by Demand: Libraries and Tantalizing Technologies

Libraries are caught in the middle—between static or shrinking budgets on one hand and ever-expanding user needs on the other. How did we get here, and where do we go from here? This paper will offer two perspectives: Part I will present survey results about changing Library purchasing habits in light of changing formats, access, business models and user demands. Data from a previous survey on this topic will be compared and updated. Pricing trends and possible futures will be discussed. Part II will briefly trace the history of libraries’ roles in scholarly communication and connecting learners with knowledge. From there, we show an example of phasing in a patron-driven / demand-driven and short-term loan e-book program, complete with incorporating these tools in library instruction, research, and portable device loadability for field work.

PDA, Circulation, and Over-Budget Requests: Harnessing Data to Inform Library Strategies

This article presents the data-rich findings of an experiment with enlisting patron-driven/demand-driven acquisitions (DDA) of ebooks in two ways. The first experiment entailed comparison of DDA eBook usage against newly ordered hardcopy materials’ circulation, both overall and ebook vs. print usage within the same subject areas. Secondly, this study experimented with DDA ebooks as a backup plan for unfunded requests left over at the end of the fiscal year.

Multiple structural change models:a simulation analysis

In a reccnt paper. Bai and Perron (1998) considcrccl theoretical issues relatec\ lo lhe limiting distriblltion of estimators and test. statist.ics in the linear model \\'ith multiplc struct ural changes. \Ve assess. via simulations, the adequacy of the \'arious I1Iethods suggested. These CO\'er the size and power of tests for structural changes. the cO\'erage rates of the confidence Íntervals for the break dates and the relat.Í\'e merits of methods to select the I1umber of breaks. The \'arious data generating processes considered alIo,,' for general conditions OIl the data and the errors including differellces across segmcll(s. Yarious practical recommendations are made.