Modelling photochemical production of fine particulates in a toluene/NOx/water vapour system

This work investigates the computer modelling of the photochemical formation of smog products such as ozone and aerosol, in a system containing toluene, NOx and water vapour. In particular, the problem of modelling this process in the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) smog chambers, which utilize outdoor exposure, is addressed. The primary requirement for such modelling is a knowledge of the photolytic rate coefficients. Photolytic rate coefficients of species other than N02 are often related to JNo2 (rate coefficient for the photolysis ofN02) by a simple factor, but for outdoor chambers, this method is prone to error as the diurnal profiles may not be similar in shape. Three methods for the calculation of diurnal JNo2 are investigated. The most suitable method for incorporation into a general model, is found to be one which determines the photolytic rate coefficients for N02, as well as several other species, from actinic flux, absorption cross section and quantum yields. A computer model was developed, based on this method, to calculate in-chamber photolysis rate coefficients for the CSIRO smog chambers, in which ex-chamber rate coefficients are adjusted by accounting for variation in light intensity by transmittance through the Teflon walls, albedo from the chamber floor and radiation attenuation due to clouds. The photochemical formation of secondary aerosol is investigated in a series of toluene-NOx experiments, which were performed in the CSIRO smog chambers. Three stages of aerosol formation, in plots of total particulate volume versus time, are identified: a delay period in which no significant mass of aerosol is formed, a regime of rapid aerosol formation (regime 1) and a second regime of slowed aerosol formation (regime 2). Two models are presented which were developed from the experimental data. One model is empirically based on observations of discrete stages of aerosol formation and readily allows aerosol growth profiles to be calculated. The second model is based on an adaptation of published toluene photooxidation mechanisms and provides some chemical information about the oxidation products. Both models compare favorably against the experimental data. The gross effects of precursor concentrations (toluene, NOx and H20) and ambient conditions (temperature, photolysis rate) on the formation of secondary aerosol are also investigated, primarily using the mechanism model. An increase in [NOx]o results in increased delay time, rate of aerosol formation in regime 1 and volume of aerosol formed in regime 1. This is due to increased formation of dinitrocresol and furanone products. An increase in toluene results in a decrease in the delay time and an increase in the rate of aerosol formation in regime 1, due to enhanced reactivity from the toluene products, such as the radicals from the photolysis of benzaldehyde. Water vapor has very little effect on the formation of aerosol volume, except that rates are slightly increased due to more OH radicals from reaction with 0(1D) from ozone photolysis. Increased temperature results in increased volume of aerosol formed in regime 1 (increased dinitrocresol formation), while increased photolysis rate results in increased rate of aerosol formation in regime 1. Both the rate and volume of aerosol formed in regime 2 are increased by increased temperature or photolysis rate. Both models indicate that the yield of secondary particulates from hydrocarbons (mass concentration aerosol formed/mass concentration hydrocarbon precursor) is proportional to the ratio [NOx]0/[hydrocarbon]0

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Candidate metastasis suppressor genes uncovered by array comparative genomic hybridization in a mouse allograft model of prostate cancer.

Background The purpose of this study was to identify candidate metastasis suppressor genes from a mouse allograft model of prostate cancer (NE-10). This allograft model originally developed metastases by twelve weeks after implantation in male athymic nude mice, but lost the ability to metastasize after a number of in vivo passages. We performed high resolution array comparative genomic hybridization on the metastasizing and non-metastasizing allografts to identify chromosome imbalances that differed between the two groups of tumors. Results This analysis uncovered a deletion on chromosome 2 that differed between the metastasizing and non-metastasizing tumors. Bioinformatics filters were employed to mine this region of the genome for candidate metastasis suppressor genes. Of the 146 known genes that reside within the region of interest on mouse chromosome 2, four candidate metastasis suppressor genes (Slc27a2, Mall, Snrpb, and Rassf2) were identified. Quantitative expression analysis confirmed decreased expression of these genes in the metastasizing compared to non-metastasizing tumors. Conclusion This study presents combined genomics and bioinformatics approaches for identifying potential metastasis suppressor genes. The genes identified here are candidates for further studies to determine their functional role in inhibiting metastases in the NE-10 allograft model and human prostate cancer.

Static shunt and series compensations of an SMIB system using flying capacitor multilevel inverter

The flying capacitor multilevel inverter (FCMLI) is a multiple voltage level inverter topology intended for high-power and high-voltage operations at low distortion. It uses capacitors, called flying capacitors, to clamp the voltage across the power semiconductor devices. A method for controlling the FCMLI is proposed which ensures that the flying capacitor voltages remain nearly constant using the preferential charging and discharging of these capacitors. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) and a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) based on five-level flying capacitor inverters are proposed. Control schemes for both the FACTS controllers are developed and verified in terms of voltage control, power flow control, and power oscillation damping when installed in a single-machine infinite bus (SMIB) system. Simulation studies are performed using PSCAD/EMTDC to validate the efficacy of the control scheme and the FCMLI-based flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers.

An improved modal strain energy method for damage assessment

The modal strain energy method, which depends on the vibration characteristics of the structure, has been reasonably successful in identifying and localising damage in the structure. However, existing strain energy methods require the first few modes to be measured to provide meaningful damage detection. Use of individual modes with existing strain energy methods may indicate false alarms or may not detect the damage at or near the nodal points. This paper proposes a new modal strain energy based damage index which can detect and localize the damage using any one of the modes measured and illustrates its application for beam structures. It becomes evident that the proposed strain energy based damage index also has potential for damage quantification.

Does the acid hydrolysis-incubation method measure meaningful soil organic carbon pools?

The literature was reviewed and analyzed to determine the feasibility of using a combination of acid hydrolysis and CO2-C release during long-term incubation to determine soil organic carbon (SOC) pool sizes and mean residence times (MRTs). Analysis of 1100 data points showed the SOC remaining after hydrolysis with 6 M HCI ranged from 30 to 80% of the total SOC depending on soil type, depth, texture, and management. Nonhydrolyzable carbon (NHC) in conventional till soils represented 48% of SOC; no-till averaged 56%, forest 55%, and grassland 56%. Carbon dates showed an average of 1200 yr greater MRT for the NHC fraction than total SOC. Longterm incubation, involving measurement of CO2 evolution and curve fitting, measured active and slow pools. Active-pool C comprised 2 to 8% of the SOC with MRTs of days to months; the slow pool comprised 45 to 65% of the SOC and had MRTs of 10 to 80 yr. Comparison of field C-14 and (13) C data with hydrolysis-incubation data showed a high correlation between independent techniques across soil types and experiments. There were large differences in MRTs depending on the length of the experiment. Insertion of hydrolysis-incubation derived estimates of active (C-a), slow (C-s), and resistant Pools (C-r) into the DAYCENT model provided estimates of daily field CO2 evolution rates. These were well correlated with field CO2 measurements. Although not without some interpretation problems, acid hydrolysis-laboratory incubation is useful for determining SOC pools and fluxes especially when used in combination with associated measurements.

Deriving grassland management factors for a carbon accounting method developed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Grassland management affects soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, for a country to assess emission reductions due to grassland management, there must be an inventory method for estimating the change in SOC storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a simple carbon accounting approach for this purpose, and here we derive new grassland management factors that represent the effect of changing management on carbon storage for this method. Our literature search identified 49 studies dealing with effects of management practices that either degraded or improved conditions relative to nominally managed grasslands. On average, degradation reduced SOC storage to 95% +/- 0.06 and 97% +/- 0.05 of carbon stored under nominal conditions in temperate and tropical regions, respectively. In contrast, improving grasslands with a single management activity enhanced SOC storage by 14% 0.06 and 17% +/- 0.05 in temperate and tropical regions, respectively, and with an additional improvement(s), storage increased by another 11% +/- 0.04. We applied the newly derived factor coefficients to analyze C sequestration potential for managed grasslands in the U.S., and found that over a 20-year period changing management could sequester from 5 to 142 Tg C yr(-1) or 0.1 to 0.9 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), depending on the level of change. This analysis provides revised factor coefficients for the IPCC method that can be used to estimate impacts of management; it also provides a methodological framework for countries to derive factor coefficients specific to conditions in their region.

Stability and convergence of an effective numerical method for the time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a nonlinear source term

Fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPEs) have gained much interest recently for describing transport dynamics in complex systems that are governed by anomalous diffusion and nonexponential relaxation patterns. However, effective numerical methods and analytic techniques for the FFPE are still in their embryonic state. In this paper, we consider a class of time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equations with a nonlinear source term (TSFFPE-NST), which involve the Caputo time fractional derivative (CTFD) of order α ∈ (0, 1) and the symmetric Riesz space fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ ∈ (1, 2). Approximating the CTFD and RSFD using the L1-algorithm and shifted Grunwald method, respectively, a computationally effective numerical method is presented to solve the TSFFPE-NST. The stability and convergence of the proposed numerical method are investigated. Finally, numerical experiments are carried out to support the theoretical claims.

Towards a method of constructing self-efficacy narratives.

This paper outlines a method of constructing narratives about an individual’s self-efficacy. Self-efficacy is defined as “people’s judgments of their capabilities to organise and execute courses of action required to attain designated types of performances” (Bandura, 1986, p. 391), and as such represents a useful construct for thinking about personal agency. Social cognitive theory provides the theoretical framework for understanding the sources of self-efficacy, that is, the elements that contribute to a sense of self-efficacy. The narrative approach adopted offers an alternative to traditional, positivist psychology, characterised by a preoccupation with measuring psychological constructs (like self-efficacy) by means of questionnaires and scales. It is argued that these instruments yield scores which are somewhat removed from the lived experience of the person—respondent or subject—associated with the score. The method involves a cyclical and iterative process using qualitative interviews to collect data from participants – four mature aged university students. The method builds on a three-interview procedure designed for life history research (Dolbeare & Schuman, cited in Seidman, 1998). This is achieved by introducing reflective homework tasks, as well as written data generated by research participants, as they are guided in reflecting on those experiences (including behaviours, cognitions and emotions) that constitute a sense of self-efficacy, in narrative and by narrative. The method illustrates how narrative analysis is used “to produce stories as the outcome of the research” (Polkinghorne, 1995, p.15), with detail and depth contributing to an appreciation of the ‘lived experience’ of the participants. The method is highly collaborative, with narratives co-constructed by researcher and research participants. The research outcomes suggest an enhanced understanding of self-efficacy contributes to motivation, application of effort and persistence in overcoming difficulties. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the research process by the students who participated in the author’s doctoral study.

Lateral shearing interferometry, dynamic wavefront sensing, and high-speed videokeratoscopy for noninvasive assessment of tear film surface characteristics : a comparitive study

There are several noninvasive techniques for assessing the kinetics of tear film, but no comparative studies have been conducted to evaluate their efficacies. Our aim is to test and compare techniques based on high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), dynamic wavefront sensing (DWS), and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). Algorithms are developed to estimate the tear film build-up time TBLD, and the average tear film surface quality in the stable phase of the interblink interval TFSQAv. Moderate but significant correlations are found between TBLD measured with LSI and DWS based on vertical coma (Pearson's r2=0.34, p<0.01) and higher order rms (r2=0.31, p<0.01), as well as between TFSQAv measured with LSI and HSV (r2=0.35, p<0.01), and between LSI and DWS based on the rms fit error (r2=0.40, p<0.01). No significant correlation is found between HSV and DWS. All three techniques estimate tear film build-up time to be below 2.5 sec, and they achieve a remarkably close median value of 0.7 sec. HSV appears to be the most precise method for measuring tear film surface quality. LSI appears to be the most sensitive method for analyzing tear film build-up.

A comparative study of splint effectiveness in limiting forearm rotation

Study Design: Case Study Series.---------- Introduction: Restriction of forearm rotation may be required for effective management and rehabilitation of the upper limb after trauma.---------- Purpose of the Study: To compare the effectiveness of four splints in restricting forearm rotation.---------- Methods: Muenster, Sugartong, antipronation distal radioulnar joint (DRUJ), and standard wrist splints were fabricated for five healthy participants. Active range of motion (AROM) in forearm pronation and supination was measured with a goniometer for each splint, at the initial point of sensory feedback and during exertion of maximal force.---------- Results: Repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated significant differences between splints for all four AROM measures. Post hoc paired t-tests showed that the Sugartong splint was significantly more restrictive in pronation than the Muenster splint. The antipronation DRUJ splint provided significantly greater restriction in pronation than the standard wrist splint. No splints immobilized the forearm completely.---------- Conclusions: The Sugartong splint is recommended for maximal restriction in pronation, but individual patient characteristics require consideration in splint choice.