Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

Oxidational wear of low alloy steel in gases other than air

A pin on disc wear machine has been used to study the oxidational wear of low alloy steel in a series of experiments which were carried out under dry wear sliding conditions at range of loads from 11.28 to 49.05 N and three sliding speeds of 2 m/s, 3.5 m/s and 5 m/s, in atmosphere of air, Ar, CO2, 100% O2, 20% O2-80% Ar and 2% O2-98% Ar. Also, the experiments were conducted to study frictional force, surface and contact temperatures and surface parameters of the wearing pins. The wear debris was examined using x-ray diffraction technique for the identification of compounds produced by the wear process. Scanning electron microscopy was employed to study the topographical features of worn pins and to measure the thickness of the oxide films. Microhardness tests were carried out to investigate the influence of the sub-surface microhardness in tribological conditions. Under all loads, speeds and atmospheres parabolic oxidation growth was observed on worn surfaces, although such growth is dependent on the concentration of oxygen in the atmospheres employed. These atmospheres are shown to influence wear rate and coefficient of friction with change in applied load. The nature of the atmosphere also has influence on surface and contact temperatures as determined from heat flow analysis. Unlubricated wear debris was found to be a mixture of αFe2O3, Fe3O4 and FeO oxide. A model has been proposed for tribo-oxide growth demonstrating the importance of diffusion rate and oxygen partial pressure, in the oxidation processes and thus in determination of wear rates.

Development and validation of the Attitudes Towards the Homeless questionnaire

CONTEXT: The homeless are a significant group within society, which is increasing in size. They have demonstrably greater physical and mental health needs than the housed, and yet often have difficulty accessing primary health care. Medical 'reluctance' to look after homeless people is increasingly suggested as part of the problem. Medical education may have a role in ameliorating this. OBJECTIVES: This paper reports on the development and validation of a questionnaire specifically developed to measure medical students' attitudes towards the homeless. METHOD AND RESULTS: The Attitudes Towards the Homeless Questionnaire, developed using the views of over 370 medical students, was shown to have a Pearson test-retest reliability correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: The Attitudes Towards the Homeless Questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable instrument, which can measure students' attitudes towards the homeless. It could be a useful tool in assessing the effectiveness of educational interventions.

Computational mechanics reveals nanosecond time correlations in molecular dynamics of liquid systems

Statistical complexity, a measure introduced in computational mechanics has been applied to MD simulated liquid water and other molecular systems. It has been found that statistical complexity does not converge in these systems but grows logarithmically without a limit. The coefficient of the growth has been introduced as a new molecular parameter which is invariant for a given liquid system. Using this new parameter extremely long time correlations in the system undetectable by traditional methods are elucidated. The existence of hundreds of picosecond and even nanosecond long correlations in bulk water has been demonstrated. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency selectivity and dopamine-dependence of plasticity at glutamatergic synapses in the subthalamic nucleus

In Parkinson's disease, subthalamic nucleus (STN) neurons burst fire with increased periodicity and synchrony. This may entail abnormal release of glutamate, the major source of which in STN is cortical afferents. Indeed, the cortico-subthalamic pathway is implicated in the emergence of excessive oscillations, which are reduced, as are symptoms, by dopamine-replacement therapy or deep brain stimulation (DBS) targeted to STN. Here we hypothesize that glutamatergic synapses in the STN may be differentially modulated by low-frequency stimulation (LFS) and high-frequency stimulation (HFS), the latter mimicking deep brain stimulation. Recordings of evoked and spontaneous excitatory post synaptic currents (EPSCs) were made from STN neurons in brain slices obtained from dopamine-intact and chronically dopamine-depleted adult rats. HFS had no significant effect on evoked (e) EPSC amplitude in dopamine-intact slices (104.4±8.0%) but depressed eEPSCs in dopamine-depleted slices (67.8±6.2%). Conversely, LFS potentiated eEPSCs in dopamine-intact slices (126.4±8.1%) but not in dopamine-depleted slices (106.7±10.0%). Analyses of paired-pulse ratio, coefficient of variation, and spontaneous EPSCs suggest that the depression and potentiation have a presynaptic locus of expression. These results indicate that the synaptic efficacy in dopamine-intact tissue is enhanced by LFS. Furthermore, the synaptic efficacy in dopamine-depleted tissue is depressed by HFS. Therefore the therapeutic effects of DBS in Parkinson's disease appear mediated, in part, by glutamatergic cortico-subthalamic synaptic depression and implicate dopamine-dependent increases in the weight of glutamate synapses, which would facilitate the transfer of pathological oscillations from the cortex.

Synthesis and characterisation of hydrogel polymers for medical applications

A fundamental if poorly understood problem that hydrogels display is the tendency of these contact lens materials to dehydrate, causing certain complications of the corneal epithelium. However, recent studies have indicated that the evaporation rate of water from different hydrogel lenses is the same and the severity of conditions such as corneal staining is controlled by the states of water in the material. A study was therefore undertaken which concluded that increased corneal desiccating staining occurred as the proportion of water existing in the bound state decreased. The possibility of using dehydrated hydrogels as packaging materials with desiccating properties has also been investigated. As hydrogels have a high affinity for water they have adequate ability to function as a moisture scavenger in an enclosed atmosphere. It was concluded that this ability is maximised by a high total water content and an increase in the proportion of this water existing in the bound state for the material when it is fully hydrated. N-vinyl pyrrolidone has a low reactivity in vinyl polymerisation reactions which results in polymers with local domains of the same chemical type which can lead to deposition. As contact lenses comprising of this monomer are susceptible to deposition, a monomer with a higher reactivity in vinyl polymerisations is acryloylmorpholine and its incorporation in favour of NVP is encouraged. Unfortunately a large proportion of high EWC hydrogels are mechanically weak and attempts to increase this property by increasing hydrophobicity or cross-linking results in a decrease in EWC. Monomers with the potential to carry a positive charge were incorporated into a high EWC, AMO-HEMA copolymer and the physical properties were investigated. Although EWC increased, mechanical properties decreased only slightly. Therefore simultaneous incorporation of a positively charged monomer and a negatively charged monomer was investigated. The resulting copolymers showed increased water content and increased initial modulus. A technique for measuring the coefficient of friction of contact lenses during lubrication has been developed.

Reproducibility and repeatability of the OcuSense TearLab™ osmometer

BACKGROUND: Some studies report that increased tear osmolarity is a reliable indicator of dry eye syndrome (DES). The OcuSense TearLab™ osmometer requires less than a 100-nl sample of tears and provides an instant quantitative result. Our aim was to clinically evaluate this instrument in terms of its reproducibility and repeatability. METHODS: Twenty-nine participants who ranged in age from 19 to 49 years (mean?±?SD: 23.3?±?5.5 years) were recruited. Osmolarity readings were collected by two operators, in two sessions separated by 1 or 2 weeks in order to assess test reproducibility and repeatability. RESULTS: The coefficient of reproducibility was 39 mOsms/l; the coefficient of repeatability was 33 mOsms/l. CONCLUSIONS: Our mean coefficient of variation over four readings for 29 subjects is 2.9%, which compares well with that reported by the manufacturer. Our results inform practitioners about the level of change over time that can be considered clinically relevant for healthy subjects. This value is 33mOsms/l; any change smaller than this could be attributed to measurement noise.

Authors' response:clinical evaluation of the MPS 9000 macular pigment screener

As a research group with no commercial interest in any macular pigment optical density (MPOD) measurement devices or nutritional supplements, we feel that we were well-placed to carry out an independent clinical assessment of the reliability of the MPS 9000 (Tinsley Precision Instruments, Redhill, Surrey, UK). Our study was prompted by the fact that we could not find any reported coefficient of repeatability value within the literature, and none was provided by the manufacturer.1 We had planned to use this instrument in our own research studies investigating the impact of nutritional supplementation on MPOD. For this purpose, we needed …

Flow patterns, performance and scale-up of distillation trays

This work is concerned with the nature of liquid flow across industrial sieve trays operating in the spray, mixed, and the emulsified flow regimes. In order to overcome the practical difficulties of removing many samples from a commercial tray, the mass transfer process was investigated in an air water simulator column by heat transfer analogy. The temperature of the warm water was measured by many thermocouples as the water flowed across the single pass 1.2 m diameter sieve tray. The thermocouples were linked to a mini computer for the storage of the data. The temperature data were then transferred to a main frame computer to generate temperature profiles - analogous to concentration profiles. A comprehensive study of the existing tray efficiency models was carried out using computerised numerical solutions. The calculated results were compared with experimental results published by the Fractionation Research Incorporation (FRl) and the existing models did not show any agreement with the experimental results. Only the Porter and Lockett model showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results for cenain tray efficiency values. A rectangular active section tray was constructed and tested to establish the channelling effect and the result of its effect on circular tray designs. The developed flow patterns showed predominantly flat profiles and some indication of significant liquid flow through the central region of the tray. This comfirms that the rectangular tray configuration might not be a satisfactory solution for liquid maldistribution on sieve trays. For a typical industrial tray the flow of liquid as it crosses the tray from the inlet to the outlet weir could be affected by the mixing of liquid by the eddy, momentum and the weir shape in the axial or the transverse direction or both. Conventional U-shape profiles were developed when the operating conditions were such that the froth dispersion was in the mixed regime, with good liquid temperature distribution while in the spray regime. For the 12.5 mm hole diameter tray the constant temperature profiles were found to be in the axial direction while in the spray regime and in the transverse direction for the 4.5 mm hole tray. It was observed that the extent of the liquid stagnant zones at the sides of the tray depended on the tray hole diameter and was larger for the 4.5 mm hole tray. The liquid hold-up results show a high liquid hold-up at the areas of the tray with low liquid temperatures, this supports the doubts about the assumptions of constant point efficiency across an operating tray. Liquid flow over the outlet weir showed more liquid flow at the centre of the tray at high liquid loading with low liquid flow at both ends of the weir. The calculated results of the point and tray efficiency model showed a general increase in the calculated point and tray efficiencies with an increase in the weir loading, as the flow regime changed from the spray to the mixed regime the point and the tray efficiencies increased from approximately 30 to 80%.Through the mixed flow regime the efficiencies were found to remain fairly constant, and as the operating conditions were changed to maintain an emulsified flow regime there was a decrease in the resulting efficiencies. The results of the estimated coefficient of mixing for the small and large hole diameter trays show that the extent of liquid mixing on an operating tray generally increased with increasing capacity factor, but decreased with increasing weir loads. This demonstrates that above certain weir loads, the effect of eddy diffusion mechanism on the process of liquid mixing on an operating tray to be negligible.

Global non-dynamic refinement of radial orbit error for altimetric earth satellites

The accuracy of altimetrically derived oceanographic and geophysical information is limited by the precision of the radial component of the satellite ephemeris. A non-dynamic technique is proposed as a method of reducing the global radial orbit error of altimetric satellites. This involves the recovery of each coefficient of an analytically derived radial error correction through a refinement of crossover difference residuals. The crossover data is supplemented by absolute height measurements to permit the retrieval of otherwise unobservable geographically correlated and linearly combined parameters. The feasibility of the radial reduction procedure is established upon application to the three day repeat orbit of SEASAT. The concept of arc aggregates is devised as a means of extending the method to incorporate longer durations, such as the 35 day repeat period of ERS-1. A continuous orbit is effectively created by including the radial misclosure between consecutive long arcs as an infallible observation. The arc aggregate procedure is validated using a combination of three successive SEASAT ephemerides. A complete simulation of the 501 revolution per 35 day repeat orbit of ERS-1 is derived and the recovery of the global radial orbit error over the full repeat period is successfully accomplished. The radial reduction is dependent upon the geographical locations of the supplementary direct height data. Investigations into the respective influences of various sites proposed for the tracking of ERS-1 by ground-based transponders are carried out. The potential effectiveness on the radial orbital accuracy of locating future tracking sites in regions of high latitudinal magnitude is demonstrated.

The mechanics of continuous roller bending of plates

This research initiates a study of the mechanics of four roll plate bending and provides a methodology to investigate the process experimentally. To carry out the research a suitable model bender was designed and constructed. The model bender was comprehensively instrumented with ten load cells, three torquemeters and a tachometer. A rudimentary analysis of the four roll pre-bending mode considered the three critical bending operations. The analysis also gave an assessment of the model bender capacity for the design stage. The analysis indicated that an increase in the coefficient of friction in the contact region of the pinch rolls and the plate would reduce the pinch resultant force required to end a plate to a particular bend radius. The mechanisms involved in the four roll plate bending process were investigated and a mathematical model evolved to determine the mechanics of four roll thin plate bending. A theoretical and experimental investigation was conducted for the bending of HP30 aluminium plates in both single and multipass bending modes. The study indicated that the multipass plate bending mechanics of the process varied according to the number of bending passes executed and the step decrement of the anticipated finished bend radius in any two successive passes (i.e. the bending route). Experimental results for single pass bending indicated that the rollers normally exert a higher bending load for the steady-continous bending with the pre-inactive side roll oper?tive. For the pre-bending mode and the steady-continous bending mode with the pre-active side roll operative, the former exerted the higher loads. The single pass results also indicated that the force on the side roll, the torque and power steadily increased as the anticipated bend radius decreased. Theoretical predictions for the plate internal resistance to accomplish finished bend radii of between 2500mm and 500mm for multipass bending HP30 aluminium plates, suggested that there was a certain bending route which would effectively optimise the bender capacity.

Development of an electrically tuneable Bragg grating filter in polymer optical fibre operating at 1.55 µm

We present a thorough study on the development of a polymer optical fibre-based tuneable filter utilizing an intra-core Bragg grating that is electrically tuneable, operating at 1.55 µm. The Bragg grating is made tuneable using a thin-film resistive heater deposited on the surface of the fibre. The polymer fibre was coated via the photochemical deposition of a Pd/Cu metallic layer with the procedure induced by VUV radiation at room temperature. The resulting device, when wavelength tuned via Joule heating, underwent a wavelength shift of 2 nm for a moderate input power of 160 mW, a wavelength to input power coefficient of -13.4 pm mW-1 and time constant of 1.7 s-1. A basic theoretical study verified that for this fibre type one can treat the device as a one-dimensional system. The model was extended to include the effect of input electrical power changes on the refractive index of the fibre and subsequently to changes in the Bragg wavelength of the grating, showing excellent agreement with the experimental measurements.

Finite element analysis of particle impact problems

Particle impacts are of fundamental importance in many areas and there has been a renewed interest in research on particle impact problems. A comprehensive investigation of the particle impact problems, using finite element (FE) methods, is presented in this thesis. The capability of FE procedures for modelling particle impacts is demonstrated by excellent agreements between FE analysis results and previous theoretical, experimental and numerical results. For normal impacts of elastic particles, it is found that the energy loss due to stress wave propagation is negligible if it can reflect more than three times during the impact, for which Hertz theory provides a good prediction of impact behaviour provided that the contact deformation is sufficiently small. For normal impact of plastic particles, the energy loss due to stress wave propagation is also generally negligible so that the energy loss is mainly due to plastic deformation. Finite-deformation plastic impact is addressed in this thesis so that plastic impacts can be categorised into elastic-plastic impact and finite-deformation plastic impact. Criteria for the onset of finite-deformation plastic impacts are proposed in terms of impact velocity and material properties. It is found that the coefficient of restitution depends mainly upon the ratio of impact velocity to yield Vni/Vy0 for elastic-plastic impacts, but it is proportional to [(Vni/Vy0)*(Y/E*)]-1/2, where Y /E* is the representative yield strain for finite-deformation plastic impacts. A theoretical model for elastic-plastic impacts is also developed and compares favourably with FEA and previous experimental results. The effect of work hardening is also investigated.

Study of the deposition, properties and applications of electroless deposits containing particles

The deposition efficiencies of a number of electroless nickel and cobalt plating solutions were studied and in the case of nickel compared with a commercial plating solution Nifoss 80. At the optimum plating conditions (92ºC and pH 4.5) Nifoss 80 produced nickel layers most efficiently, the alkaline cobalt solution operated most efficiently at 90ºC and pH 9. The methods of producing compostte layers containing 2-3 µm carbide particles and chromium powder is described. Nickel and cobalt layers containing approximately 27% carbide particles, or 40% (Ni) and 30% (Co) chromium particles by volume were obtained. This value is independent of the particle concentration in the plating solution within the range (20~200 g/l). Hardness of the nickel. as deposited was 515 Hv, this was increased to a maximum of 1155 Hv by heat treatment at 200ºC for 5 hours in vacuum. Incorporation. of .chromium carbide particles resulted in a maximum hardness of 1225 Hv after heating at 500ºC for 5 hours in vacuum and chromium particles resulted in a maximum hardness of 16S0 Hv after heat treatment at 400ºC for 2 hours in vacuum. Similarly the hardness of cobalt as deposited was 600 Hv, this was increased to a maximum of 1300 Hv after heat treatment at 400ºC for 1 hour. Incorporation of chromium carbide particles resulted jn a maximum hardness of 1405 Hv after heating at 400ºC for 5 hours in vacuum and chromium particles resulted in a maximum hardness of 1440 Hv after. heat treating for 2 hours at 400ºC in vacuum. The structure of the deposits was studied by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The wear rate and coefficient of friction was determined by a pin and disc method. Wear rate and coefficient of friction decreased with increase in hardness. The wear resistance of the materials was also determined using a simulated forging test. Dies made of standard die steel were coated and the wear rates of the layers as deposited and after heat treatment were compared with those of uncoated tools. The wear resistance generally increased with hardness, it was 50-75% more than the uncoated die steel. Acetic acid salt spray test and outdoor exposure for six months was used to study the corrosion behaviour of the deposits and potentiodynamic curves plotted to find their corrosion potential. Nickel deposit exhibited less staining than carbide composite deposits and nickel-chromium deposits had the most noble corrosion potential.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.