Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak

A convection-permitting local-area model was used to simulate a cold air outbreak crossing from the Norwegian Sea into the Atlantic Ocean near Scotland. A control model run based on an operational configuration of the Met Office UKV high-resolution (1.5 km grid spacing) NWP model was compared to satellite, aircraft and radar data. While the control model captured the large-scale features of the synoptic situation, it was not able to reproduce the shallow (<1.5 km) stratiform layer to the north of the open cellular convection. Liquid water paths were found to be too low in both the stratiform and convective cloud regions. Sensitivity analyses including a modified boundary-layer diagnosis to generate a more well-mixed boundary layer and inhibition of ice formation to lower temperatures improved cloud morphology and comparisons with observational data. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

The impact of diurnal variability in sea surface temperature on the atlantic air-sea CO2 flux

The effect of diurnal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) on the air-sea flux of CO2 over the central Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea (60 S–60 N, 60 W–45 E) is evaluated for 2005–2006. We use high spatial resolution hourly satellite ocean skin temperature data to determine the diurnal warming (ΔSST). The CO2 flux is then computed using three different temperature fields – a foundation temperature (Tf, measured at a depth where there is no diurnal variation), Tf, plus the hourly ΔSST and Tf, plus the monthly average of the ΔSSTs. This is done in conjunction with a physically-based parameterisation for the gas transfer velocity (NOAA-COARE). The differences between the fluxes evaluated for these three different temperature fields quantify the effects of both diurnal warming and diurnal covariations. We find that including diurnal warming increases the CO2 flux out of this region of the Atlantic for 2005–2006 from 9.6 Tg C a−1 to 30.4 Tg C a−1 (hourly ΔSST) and 31.2 Tg C a−1 (monthly average of ΔSST measurements). Diurnal warming in this region, therefore, has a large impact on the annual net CO2 flux but diurnal covariations are negligible. However, in this region of the Atlantic the uptake and outgassing of CO2 is approximately balanced over the annual cycle, so although we find diurnal warming has a very large effect here, the Atlantic as a whole is a very strong carbon sink (e.g. −920 Tg C a−1 Takahashi et al., 2002) making this is a small contribution to the Atlantic carbon budget.

Natural ventilation assessment in typical open an semi-open urban environments under various wind directions

Semi-open street roofs protect pedestrians from intense sunshine and rains. Their effects on natural ventilation of urban canopy layers (UCL) are less understood. This paper investigates two idealized urban models consisting of 4(2×2) or 16(4×4) buildings under a neutral atmospheric condition with parallel (0°) or non-parallel (15°,30°,45°) approaching wind. The aspect ratio (building height (H) / street width (W)) is 1 and building width is B=3H. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were first validated by experimental data, confirming that standard k-ε model predicted airflow velocity better than RNG k-ε model, realizable k–ε model and Reynolds stress model. Three ventilation indices were numerically analyzed for ventilation assessment, including flow rates across street roofs and openings to show the mechanisms of air exchange, age of air to display how long external air reaches a place after entering UCL, and purging flow rate to quantify the net UCL ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. Five semi-open roof types are studied: Walls being hung above street roofs (coverage ratio λa=100%) at z=1.5H, 1.2H, 1.1H ('Hung1.5H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.1H' types); Walls partly covering street roofs (λa=80%) at z=H ('Partly-covered' type); Walls fully covering street roofs (λa=100%) at z=H ('Fully-covered' type).They basically obtain worse UCL ventilation than open street roof type due to the decreased roof ventilation. 'Hung1.1H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.5H' types are better designs than 'Fully-covered' and 'Partly-covered' types. Greater urban size contains larger UCL volume and requires longer time to ventilate. The methodologies and ventilation indices are confirmed effective to quantify UCL ventilation.

Aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans deduced from POLDER-1 and AERONET observations

We estimate aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans using aerosol geophysical products from POLDER-1 space measurements and absorption properties from ground-based AERONET measurements. Our best estimate is 2.5 Wm-2 averaged over the 8-month lifetime of POLDER-1. Low and high absorption estimates are 2.2 and 3.1 Wm-2 based on the variability in aerosol single scattering albedo observed by AERONET. Main sources of uncertainties are the discrimation of the aerosol type from satellite measurements, and potential clear-sky bias induced by the cloud-screening procedure.

MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

Linking urban water balance and energy balance models to analyse urban design options

Using a water balance modelling framework, this paper analyses the effects of urban design on the water balance, with a focus on evapotranspiration and storm water. First, two quite different urban water balance models are compared: Aquacycle which has been calibrated for a suburban catchment in Canberra, Australia, and the single-source urban evapotranspiration-interception scheme (SUES), an energy-based approach with a biophysically advanced representation of interception and evapotranspiration. A fair agreement between the two modelled estimates of evapotranspiration was significantly improved by allowing the vegetation cover (leaf area index, LAI) to vary seasonally, demonstrating the potential of SUES to quantify the links between water sensitive urban design and microclimates and the advantage of comparing the two modelling approaches. The comparison also revealed where improvements to SUES are needed, chiefly through improved estimates of vegetation cover dynamics as input to SUES, and more rigorous parameterization of the surface resistance equations using local-scale suburban flux measurements. Second, Aquacycle is used to identify the impact of an array of water sensitive urban design features on the water balance terms. This analysis confirms the potential to passively control urban microclimate by suburban design features that maximize evapotranspiration, such as vegetated roofs. The subsequent effects on daily maximum air temperatures are estimated using an atmospheric boundary layer budget. Potential energy savings of about 2% in summer cooling are estimated from this analysis. This is a clear ‘return on investment’ of using water to maintain urban greenspace, whether as parks distributed throughout an urban area or individual gardens or vegetated roofs.

Upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across decadal to sub-daily timescales: a case study of Plynlimon, Wales

Streamwater nitrate dynamics in the River Hafren, Plynlimon, mid-Wales were investigated over decadal to sub-daily timescales using a range of statistical techniques. Long-term data were derived from weekly grab samples (1984–2010) and high-frequency data from 7-hourly samples (2007–2009) both measured at two sites: a headwater stream draining moorland and a downstream site below plantation forest. This study is one of the first to analyse upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across such a wide range of timescales and report on the principal mechanisms identified. The data analysis provided no clear evidence that the long-term decline in streamwater nitrate concentrations was related to a decline in atmospheric deposition alone, because nitrogen deposition first increased and then decreased during the study period. Increased streamwater temperature and denitrification may also have contributed to the decline in stream nitrate concentrations, the former through increased N uptake rates and the latter resultant from increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Strong seasonal cycles, with concentration minimums in the summer, were driven by seasonal flow minimums and seasonal biological activity enhancing nitrate uptake. Complex diurnal dynamics were observed, with seasonal changes in phase and amplitude of the cycling, and the diurnal dynamics were variable along the river. At the moorland site, a regular daily cycle, with minimum concentrations in the early afternoon, corresponding with peak air temperatures, indicated the importance of instream biological processing. At the downstream site, the diurnal dynamics were a composite signal, resultant from advection, dispersion and nitrate processing in the soils of the lower catchment. The diurnal streamwater nitrate dynamics were also affected by drought conditions. Enhanced diurnal cycling in Spring 2007 was attributed to increased nitrate availability in the post-drought period as well as low flow rates and high temperatures over this period. The combination of high-frequency short-term measurements and long-term monitoring provides a powerful tool for increasing understanding of the controls of element fluxes and concentrations in surface waters.

Characterization and antimicrobial efficacy against E. coli of a helium/air plasma at atmospheric pressure created in a plastic package

A plasma source, sustained by the application of a floating high voltage (±15 kV) to parallel-plate electrodes at 50 Hz, has been achieved in a helium/air mixture at atmospheric pressure (P = 105 Pa) contained in a zip-locked plastic package placed in the electrode gap. Some of the physical and antimicrobial properties of this apparatus were established with a view to ascertain its performance as a prototype for the disinfection of fresh produce. The current–voltage (I–V) and charge–voltage (Q–V) characteristics of the system were measured as a function of gap distance d, in the range (3 × 103 ≤ Pd ≤ 1.0 × 104 Pa m). The electrical measurements showed this plasma source to exhibit the characteristic behaviour of a dielectric barrier discharge in the filamentary mode and its properties could be accurately interpreted by the two-capacitance in series model. The power consumed by the discharge and the reduced field strength were found to decrease quadratically from 12.0 W to 4.5 W and linearly from 140 Td to 50 Td, respectively, in the range studied. Emission spectra of the discharge were recorded on a relative intensity scale and the dominant spectral features could be assigned to strong vibrational bands in the 2+ and 1− systems of N2 and ${\rm N}_2^+$ , respectively, with other weak signatures from the NO and OH radicals and the N+, He and O atomic species. Absolute spectral intensities were also recorded and interpreted by comparison with the non-equilibrium synthetic spectra generated by the computer code SPECAIR. At an inter-electrode gap of 0.04 m, this comparison yielded typical values for the electron, vibrational and translational (gas) temperatures of (4980 ± 100) K, (2700 ± 200) K and (300 ± 100) K, respectively and an electron density of 1.0 × 1017 m−3. A Boltzmann plot also provided a value of (3200 ± 200 K) for the vibrational temperature. The antimicrobial efficacy was assessed by studying the resistance of both Escherichia coli K12 its isogenic mutants in soxR, soxS, oxyR, rpoS and dnaK selected to identify possible cellular responses and targets related with 5 min exposure to the active gas in proximity of, but not directly in, the path of the discharge filaments. Both the parent strain and mutants populations were significantly reduced by more than 1.5 log cycles in these conditions, showing the potential of the system. Post-treatment storage studies showed that some transcription regulators and specific genes related to oxidative stress play an important role in the E. coli repair mechanism and that plasma exposure affects specific cell regulator systems.

Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air streams in an intense extratropical cyclone

Strong winds equatorwards and rearwards of a cyclone core have often been associated with two phenomena, the cold conveyor belt (CCB) jet and sting jets. Here, detailed observations of the mesoscale structure in this region of an intense cyclone are analysed. The {\it in-situ} and dropsonde observations were obtained during two research flights through the cyclone during the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical storms) field campaign. A numerical weather prediction model is used to link the strong wind regions with three types of ``air streams'', or coherent ensembles of trajectories: two types are identified with the CCB, hooking around the cyclone center, while the third is identified with a sting jet, descending from the cloud head to the west of the cyclone. Chemical tracer observations show for the first time that the CCB and sting jet air streams are distinct air masses even when the associated low-level wind maxima are not spatially distinct. In the model, the CCB experiences slow latent heating through weak resolved ascent and convection, while the sting jet experiences weak cooling associated with microphysics during its subsaturated descent. Diagnosis of mesoscale instabilities in the model shows that the CCB passes through largely stable regions, while the sting jet spends relatively long periods in locations characterized by conditional symmetric instability (CSI). The relation of CSI to the observed mesoscale structure of the bent-back front and its possible role in the cloud banding is discussed.

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

A Lagrangian analysis of ice-supersaturated air over the North Atlantic

Understanding the nature of air parcels that exhibit ice-supersaturation is important because they are the regions of potential formation of both cirrus and aircraft contrails, which affect the radiation balance. Ice-supersaturated air parcels in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic are investigated using Lagrangian trajectories. The trajectory calculations use ERA-Interim data for three winter and three summer seasons, resulting in approximately 200,000 trajectories with ice-supersaturation for each season. For both summer and winter, the median duration of ice-supersaturation along a trajectory is less than 6 hours. 5% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the troposphere, and 23% of air which becomes ice-supersaturated in the stratosphere will remain ice-supersaturated for at least 24 hours. Weighting the ice-supersaturation duration with the observed frequency indicates the likely overall importance of the longer duration ice-supersaturated trajectories. Ice-supersaturated air parcels typically experience a decrease in moisture content while ice-supersaturated, suggesting that cirrus clouds eventually form in the majority of such air. A comparison is made between short-lived (less than 24 h) and long-lived (greater than 24 h) ice-supersaturated air flows. For both air flows, ice-supersaturation occurs around the northernmost part of the trajectory. Short-lived ice-supersaturated air flows show no significant differences in speed or direction of movement to subsaturated air parcels. However, long-lived ice-supersaturated air occurs in slower moving air flows, which implies that they are not associated with the fastest moving air through a jet stream.