947 resultados para business cycles, investment cycles, spectral tests


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Throughout the 19th century and until the mid-20th century, in terms of long-terminvestment in human capital and, above all, in education, Spain lagged far behind theinternational standards and, more specifically, the levels attained by its neighbours inEurope. In 1900, only 55% of the population could read; in 1950, the figure was 93%.This no doubt contributed to a pattern of slower economic growth in which thephysical strength required for agricultural work, measured here through height, had alarger impact than education on economic growth. It was not until the 1970s, with thearrival of democracy, that the Spanish education system was modernized and theinfluence of education on economic growth increased.

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In this paper I analyze the effects of insider trading on real investmentand the insurance role of financial markets. There is a single entrepreneurwho, at a first stage, chooses the level of investment in a risky business.At the second stage, an asset with random payoff is issued and then the entrepreneurreceives some privileged information on the likely realization of productionreturn. At the third stage, trading occurs on the asset market, where theentrepreneur faces the aggregate demand coming from a continuum of rationaluniformed traders and some noise traders. I compare the equilibrium withinsider trading (when the entrepreneur trades on her inside information in theasset market) with the equilibrium in the same market without insider trading. Ifind that permitting insider trading tends to decrease the level of realinvestment. Moreover, the asset market is thinner and the entrepreneur's netsupply of the asset and the hedge ratio are lower, although the asset priceis more informative and volatile.

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Blowflies use discrete, ephemeral breeding sites for larval nutrition. After exhaustion of the food supply, the larvae disperse in search of sites to pupate or to seek other sources of food in a process known as post-feeding larval dispersal. In this study, some of the most important aspects of this process were investigated in larvae of the blowflies Chrysomya megacephala exposed to a variety of light: dark (LD) cycles (0:0 h, 12:12 h and 24:0 h) and incubated in tubes covered with vermiculite. For each pupa, the body weight and depth of burrowing were determined. Statistical tests were used to examine the relationship of depth of burrowing and body weight to photoperiod at which burrowing occurred. The study of burial behavior in post-feeding larval dispersing can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) of human corpses in forensic medicine.

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This paper analyses the economic growth performance in the Arab world overthe last forty years. The Arab world has managed to reduce povertyperformance despite its relatively disappointing growth performance. Werelate this poor performance of both oil and non-oil producers toinvestment. Contrary to widespread belief, we do not find evidence that lowquantity of investment is the main of low growth. The decline in theinvestment rate followed rather than preceded the reduction in the aggregategrowth rate. We conclude that the low quality of investment projects is thekey determinant of growth. The excessive reliance on public investment, thelow quality of financial institutions, the bad business environment (due topolitical and social instability and to excessive public intervention andoverregulation) and the low quality of human capital are importantdeterminants of systematically unproductive investment decisions and, thus,low economic growth.

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We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financingconstraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firmscannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint thatthey can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examinethe cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and outputin the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields threemain results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investmentis reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint onvariable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interactionbetween the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and materialdeliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they arehighly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

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We analyze the effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shockson hours and output. Long cycles in hours are captured in a variety of ways.Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase inresponse to investment specific shocks. The percentage of the variance ofhours (output) explained by neutral shocks is small (large); the opposite istrue for investment specific shocks. News shocks are uncorrelated with theestimated technology shocks.

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Relación entre anchoveta y ambiente a diferentes escalas temporales. Bol Inst Mar Perú 25(1-2):13-21.- Se estudió la relación del ambiente y la anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens) en el Ecosistema de Afloramiento Peruano (EAP). Se hipotetiza que en la zona de afloramiento comprendida entre 5°S - 13°S se presenta una relación negativa entre la temperatura, concentración de oxígeno y desembarques de anchoveta en escalas de tiempo decadales. En series de tiempo mensuales observadas entre 1950 – 2008, se analizó la temperatura superficial, subsuperficial, oxígeno, clorofila-a y desembarques de anchoveta y sardina, aplicando métodos estadísticos y espectrales para obtener modos temporales decadales y caracterizar la modulación a baja frecuencia de sus ciclos estacionales. También se usaron datos de reanálisis para caracterizar los cambios estacionales a partir de los forzamientos (remoto y local) ambientales del EAP. Se encontró una fuerte asociación a escala decadal entre las series ambientales costeras y los desembarques de anchoveta y se sugiere que la covariabilidad ambiental en escalas temporales interanuales, intraestacionales, decadales, seculares frente al EAP se incrementará durante la próxima década.

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I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

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The Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Investment Bonds are exactly that: an investment in Iowa and Iowans. Proposed by Governor Chet Culver in his 2009 Condition of the State address, the Rebuild Iowa bonds are an investment of $700 million to create jobs by addressing much-needed infrastructure projects across the state.

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential synergy between meropenem and levofloxacin in vitro and in experimental meningitis and to determine the effect of meropenem on levofloxacin-induced resistance in vitro. Meropenem increased the efficacy of levofloxacin against the penicillin-resistant pneumococcal strain KR4 in time-killing assays in vitro and acted synergistically against a second penicillin-resistant strain WB4. In the checkerboard, only an additive effect (FIC indices: 1.0) was observed for both strains. In cycling experiments in vitro, levofloxacin alone led to a 64-fold increase in the MIC for both strains after 12 cycles. Addition of meropenem in sub-MIC concentrations (0.25 x MIC) completely inhibited the selection of levofloxacin-resistant mutants in WB4 after 12 cycles. In KR4, the addition of meropenem led to just a twofold increase in the MIC for levofloxacin after 12 cycles. Mutations detected in the genes encoding for topoisomerase IV (parC) and gyrase (gyrA) confirmed the levofloxacin-induced resistance in both strains. Addition of meropenem was able to completely suppress levofloxacin-induced mutations in WB4 and led to only one mutation in parE in KR4. In experimental meningitis, meropenem, given in two doses (2 x 125 mg/kg), produced a good bactericidal activity (-0.45 Deltalog10 cfu/ml.h) comparable to one dose (1 x 10 mg/kg) of levofloxacin (-0.44 Deltalog10 cfu/ml.h) against the penicillin-resistant strain WB4. Meropenem combined with levofloxacin acted synergistically (-0.93 Deltalog10 cfu/ml.h), sterilizing the CSF of all rabbits.

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INTRODUCTION. Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) [1] is a new spontaneousassisted ventilatory mode which uses the diaphragmatic electrical activity (Eadi) to pilot the ventilator. Eadi is used to initiate the ventilator's pressurization and cycling off. Delivered inspiratory assistance is proportional to Eadi. NAVA can improve patient-ventilator synchrony [2] compared to pressure support (PS), but little is known about its effect on minute ventilation and oxygenation. OBJECTIVES. To compare the effects of NAVA and PS on minute ventilation and oxygenation and to analyze potential determinant factors for oxygenation. METHODS. Comparison between two 20-min periods under NAVA and PS. NAVA gain (proportionality factor between Eadi and delivered pressure) set as to obtain the same peak pressure as in PS. FIO2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were the same in NAVA and PS. Blood gas analyses were performed at the end of both recording periods. Statistical analysis: groups were compared with paired t tests or non parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. p\0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS. [Mean ± SD]: 22 patients (age 66 ± 12 year, 7 M/15F, BMI 23.4 ± 3.1 kg/m2), 8 patients with COPD. Initial settings: PS 13 ± 3 cmH2O, PEEP 7 ± 2 cmH2O, NAVA gain 2.2 ± 1.8. Minute ventilation and PaCO2 were the same with both modes (p = 0.296 and 0.848, respectively). Tidal volume was lower with NAVA (427 ± 102 vs. 477 ± 102 ml, p\0.001). In contrast respiratory rate was higher with NAVA (25.6 ± 9.5 vs. 22.3 ± 8.9 cycles/min). Arterial oxygenation was improved with NAVA (PaO2 85.1 ± 28.9 vs. 75.8 ± 11.9 mmHg, p = 0.017, PaO2/FIO2 210 ± 53 vs. 195 ± 58 mmHg, p = 0.019). Neural inspiratory time (Tin) was comparable between NAVA and PS (p = 0.566). Among potential determinant factors for oxygenation, mean airway pressure (Pmean) was lower with NAVA (10.6 ± 2.6 vs. 11.1 ± 2.4 cmH2O, p = 0.006), as was the pressure time product (PTP) (6.8 ± 3.0 vs. 9.2 ± 3.5 cmH2O 9 s, p = 0.004). There were less asynchrony events with NAVA (2.3 ± 2.0 vs. 4.4 ± 3.8, p = 0.009).Tidal volume variability was higher with NAVA (variation coefficient: 30 ± 19.5 vs. 13.5 ± 8.6, p\0.001). Inspiratory time in excess (Tiex) was lower with NAVA (56 ± 23 vs. 202 ± 200 ms, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION. Despite lower Pmean and PTP in NAVA, arterial oxygenation was improved compared to PS. As asynchronies may be associated with an increased work of breathing and a higher oxygen consumption, their decrease in number with NAVA could be an explanation for oxygenation improvement. Another explanation could be the increase in VT variability. Further studies should now be performed to confirm the potential of NAVA in improving arterial oxygenation and explore the underlying mechanisms.

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PURPOSE: To centrally assess estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) levels by immunohistochemistry and investigate their predictive value for benefit of chemo-endocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapy alone in two randomized clinical trials for node-negative breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VIII compared cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) chemotherapy for 6 cycles followed by endocrine therapy with goserelin with either modality alone in pre- and perimenopausal patients. Trial IX compared three cycles of CMF followed by tamoxifen for 5 years versus tamoxifen alone in postmenopausal patients. Central Pathology Office reviewed 883 (83%) of 1,063 patients on Trial VIII and 1,365 (82%) of 1,669 on Trial IX and determined ER and PgR by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared across the spectrum of expression of each receptor using the Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot methodology. RESULTS: Both receptors displayed a bimodal distribution, with substantial proportions showing no staining (receptor absent) and most of the remainder showing a high percentage of stained cells. Chemo-endocrine therapy yielded DFS superior to endocrine therapy alone for patients with receptor-absent tumors, and in some cases also for those with low levels of receptor expression. Among patients with ER-expressing tumors, additional prediction of benefit was suggested in absent or low PgR in Trial VIII but not in Trial IX. CONCLUSION: Low levels of ER and PgR are predictive of the benefit of adding chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. Low PgR may add further prediction among pre- and perimenopausal but not postmenopausal patients whose tumors express ER.

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Introduction Discrepancies appear in studies comparing fat oxidation between men and women during exercise (1). Therefore, this study aimed to quantitatively describe and compare whole body fat oxidation kinetics between genders during exercise using a sinusoidal model (SIN) (2). Methods Twelve men and 11 women matched for age, body mass index (23.4±0.6 kg.m-2 and 21.5±0.8 kg.m-2, respectively) and aerobic fitness [maximal oxygen uptake ( ) (58.5±1.6 mL.kg FFM-1.min-1 and 55.3±2.0 mL.kg FFM-1.min-1, respectively) and power output ( ) per kilogram of fat-free mass (FFM)] performed submaximal incremental tests (Incr) with 5-min stages and 7.5% increment on a cycle ergometer. Respiratory and HR values were averaged over the last 2 minutes of each stage. All female study participants were eumenorrheic, reported regular menstrual cycles (28.6 ± 0.8 days) and were not taking oral contraceptives (OC) or other forms of exogenous ovarian hormones. Women were studied in the early follicular phase (FP) of their menstrual cycle (between days 3 and 8, where day 1 is the first day of menses). Fat oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry and plotted as a function of exercise intensity. The SIN model (2), which includes three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, translation), was used to mathematically describe fat oxidation kinetics and to determine the intensity (Fatmax) eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (MFO). Results During Incr, women exhibited greater fat oxidation rates from 35 to 85% , MFO (6.6 ± 0.9 vs. 4.5 ± 0.3 mgkg FFM-1min-1) and Fatmax (58.1 ± 1.9 vs. 50.0 ± 2.7% ) (P<0.05) than men. While men and women showed similar global shapes of fat oxidation kinetics in terms of dilatation and symmetry (P>0.05), the fat oxidation curve tended to be shifted towards higher exercise intensities in women (rightward translation, P=0.08). Conclusion These results showed that women, eumenorrheic, not taking OC and tested in FP, have a greater reliance on fat oxidation than men during submaximal exercise, but they also indicate that this greater fat oxidation is shifted towards higher exercise intensities in women compared with men. References 1. Blaak E. Gender differences in fat metabolism. Curr Opin Clin Nutr Metab Care 4: 499-502, 2001. 2. Cheneviere X, Malatesta D, Peters EM, and Borrani F. A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise. Med Sci Sports Exerc 41: 1615-1625, 2009.

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Excessive daytime sleepiness underpins a large number of the reported motor vehicle crashes. Fair and accurate field measures are needed to identify at-risk drivers who have been identified as potentially driving in a sleep deprived state on the basis of erratic driving behavior. The purpose of this research study was to evaluate a set of cognitive tests that can assist Motor Vehicle Enforcement Officers on duty in identifying drivers who may be engaged in sleep impaired driving. Currently no gold standard test exists to judge sleepiness in the field. Previous research has shown that Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) is sensitive to sleep deprivation. The first goal of the current study was to evaluate whether computerized tests of attention and memory, more brief than PVT, would be as sensitive to sleepiness effects. The second goal of the study was to evaluate whether objective and subjective indices of acute and cumulative sleepiness predicted cognitive performance. Findings showed that sleepiness effects were detected in three out of six tasks. Furthermore, PVT was the only task that showed a consistent slowing of both ‘best’, i.e. minimum, and ‘typical’ responses, median RT due to sleepiness. However, PVT failed to show significant associations with objective measures of sleep deprivation (number of hours awake). The findings indicate that sleepiness tests in the field have significant limitations. The findings clearly show that it will not be possible to set absolute performance thresholds to identify sleep-impaired drivers based on cognitive performance on any test. Cooperation with industry to adjust work and rest cycles, and incentives to comply with those regulations will be critical components of a broad policy to prevent sleepy truck drivers from getting on the road.

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Concrete will suffer frost damage when saturated and subjected to freezing temperatures. Frost-durable concrete can be produced if a specialized surfactant, also known as an air-entraining admixture (AEA), is added during mixing to stabilize microscopic air voids. Small and well-dispersed air voids are critical to produce frost-resistant concrete. Work completed by Klieger in 1952 found the minimum volume of air required to consistently ensure frost durability in a concrete mixture subjected to rapid freezing and thawing cycles. He suggested that frost durability was provided if 18 percent air was created in the paste. This is the basis of current practice despite the tests being conducted on materials that are no longer available using tests that are different from those in use today. Based on the data presented, it was found that a minimum air content of 3.5 percent in the concrete and 11.0 percent in the paste should yield concrete durable in the ASTM C 666 with modern AEAs and low or no lignosulfonate water reducers (WRs). Limited data suggests that mixtures with a higher dosage of lignosulfonate will need about 1 percent more air in the concrete or 3 percent more air in the paste for the materials and procedures used. A spacing factor of 0.008 in. was still found to be necessary to provide frost durability for the mixtures investigated.