Combinations of dexmedetomidine and alfaxalone with butorphanol in cats: application of an innovative stepwise optimisation method to identify optimal clinical doses for intramuscular anaesthesia

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to optimise dexmedetomidine and alfaxalone dosing, for intramuscular administration with butorphanol, to perform minor surgeries in cats. METHODS Initially, cats were assigned to one of five groups, each composed of six animals and receiving, in addition to 0.3 mg/kg butorphanol intramuscularly, one of the following: (A) 0.005 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 2 mg/kg alfaxalone; (B) 0.008 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 1.5 mg/kg alfaxalone; (C) 0.012 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 1 mg/kg alfaxalone; (D) 0.005 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 1 mg/kg alfaxalone; and (E) 0.012 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 2 mg/kg alfaxalone. Thereafter, a modified 'direct search' method, conducted in a stepwise manner, was used to optimise drug dosing. The quality of anaesthesia was evaluated on the basis of composite scores (one for anaesthesia and one for recovery), visual analogue scales and the propofol requirement to suppress spontaneous movements. The medians or means of these variables were used to rank the treatments; 'unsatisfactory' and 'promising' combinations were identified to calculate, through the equation first described by Berenbaum in 1990, new dexmedetomidine and alfaxalone doses to be tested in the next step. At each step, five combinations (one new plus the best previous four) were tested. RESULTS None of the tested combinations resulted in adverse effects. Four steps and 120 animals were necessary to identify the optimal drug combination (0.014 mg/kg dexmedetomidine, 2.5 mg/kg alfaxalone and 0.3 mg/kg butorphanol). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The investigated drug mixture, at the doses found with the optimisation method, is suitable for cats undergoing minor clinical procedures.

Interstellar neutral helium in the heliosphere from Interstellar Boundary Explorer observations. III. Mach number of the flow, velocity vector, and temperature from the first six years of measurements

We analyzed observations of interstellar neutral helium (ISN He) obtained from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) satellite during its first six years of operation. We used a refined version of the ISN He simulation model, presented in the companion paper by Sokol et al. (2015b), along with a sophisticated data correlation and uncertainty system and parameter fitting method, described in the companion paper by Swaczyna et al. We analyzed the entire data set together and the yearly subsets, and found the temperature and velocity vector of ISN He in front of the heliosphere. As seen in the previous studies, the allowable parameters are highly correlated and form a four-dimensional tube in the parameter space. The inflow longitudes obtained from the yearly data subsets show a spread of similar to 6 degrees, with the other parameters varying accordingly along the parameter tube, and the minimum chi(2) value is larger than expected. We found, however, that the Mach number of the ISN He flow shows very little scatter and is thus very tightly constrained. It is in excellent agreement with the original analysis of ISN He observations from IBEX and recent reanalyses of observations from Ulysses. We identify a possible inaccuracy in the Warm Breeze parameters as the likely cause of the scatter in the ISN He parameters obtained from the yearly subsets, and we suppose that another component may exist in the signal or a process that is not accounted for in the current physical model of ISN He in front of the heliosphere. From our analysis, the inflow velocity vector, temperature, and Mach number of the flow are equal to lambda(ISNHe) = 255 degrees.8 +/- 0 degrees.5, beta(ISNHe) = 5 degrees.16 +/- 0 degrees.10, T-ISNHe = 7440 +/- 260 K, nu(SNHe) = 25.8 +/- 0.4 km s(-1), and M-ISNHe = 5.079 +/- 0.028, with uncertainties strongly correlated along the parameter tube.

Continued Fraction Solutions to Hermite's, Legendre's and Laguerre's Differential Equation

The continued fraction method for solving differential equations is illustrated using three famous differential equations used in quantum chemistry.

Means and method for soil testing

An inexpensive device which is easily operated to accurately measure the Coulomb parameters of the soil. The Coulomb parameters are used in Coulomb's equation to calculate the shearing stresses along a failure surface of the soil. The device includes an instrument to test soil shear strength to which several weights have been added. To obtain the Coulomb parameters, the instrument is placed on the soil to be tested and weights are incrementally added to it. The instrument is rotated at each weight increment and the shearing stresses are read from its calibrated dial. The stresses are plotted on a graph from which the Coulomb parameters are determined. The shearing stress of the soil with any known force applied to it can then be determined.

Analyses of shocked quartz from the K-P boundary

The precise cause and timing of the Cretaceous-Paleocene (K-P) mass extinction 65 Ma ago remains a matter of debate. Many advocate that the extinction was caused by a meteorite impact at Chicxulub, Mexico, and a number of potential kill-mechanisms have been proposed for this. Although we now have good constraints on the size of this impact and chemistry of the target rocks, estimates of its environmental consequences are hindered by a lack of knowledge about the obliquity of this impact. An oblique impact is likely to have been far more catastrophic than a sub-vertical one, because greater volumes of volatiles would have been released into the atmosphere. The principal purpose of this study was to characterize shocked quartz within distal K-P ejecta, to investigate whether the quartz distribution carried a signature of the direction and angle of impact. Our analyses show that the total number, maximum and average size of shocked quartz grains all decrease gradually with paleodistance from Chicxulub. We do not find particularly high abundances in Pacific sites relative to Atlantic and European sites, as has been previously reported, and the size-distribution around Chicxulub is relatively symmetric. Ejecta samples at any one site display features that are indicative of a wide range of shock pressures, but the mean degree of shock increases with paleodistance. These shock- and size-distributions are both consistent with the K-P layer having been formed by a single impact at Chicxulub. One site in the South Atlantic contains quartz indicating an anomalously high average shock degree, that may be indicative of an oblique impact with an uprange direction to the southeast +/- 45°. The apparent continuous coverage of proximal ejecta in this quadrant of the crater, however, suggests a relatively high impact angle of >45°. We conclude that some of the more extreme predictions of the environmental consequences of a low-angle impact at Chicxulub are probably not applicable.

Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, links model results in MATLAB format

Calving is a major mechanism of ice discharge of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a change in calving front position affects the entire stress regime of marine terminating glaciers. The representation of calving front dynamics in a 2-D or 3-D ice sheet model remains non-trivial. Here, we present the theoretical and technical framework for a level-set method, an implicit boundary tracking scheme, which we implement into the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This scheme allows us to study the dynamic response of a drainage basin to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the West Greenland Ice Sheet. The model robustly reproduces the high sensitivity of the glacier to calving, and we find that enhanced calving triggers significant acceleration of the ice stream. Upstream acceleration is sustained through a combination of mechanisms. However, both lateral stress and ice influx stabilize the ice stream. This study provides new insights into the ongoing changes occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ and emphasizes that the incorporation of moving boundaries and dynamic lateral effects, not captured in flow-line models, is key for realistic model projections of sea level rise on centennial timescales.

Artificial oxygen fluxes measured by the eddy correlation method using stirring-sensitive oxygen microsensor and oxygen optodes in a flume experiment

In the last decade, the aquatic eddy correlation (EC) technique has proven to be a powerful approach for non-invasive measurements of oxygen fluxes across the sediment water interface. Fundamental to the EC approach is the correlation of turbulent velocity and oxygen concentration fluctuations measured with high frequencies in the same sampling volume. Oxygen concentrations are commonly measured with fast responding electrochemical microsensors. However, due to their own oxygen consumption, electrochemical microsensors are sensitive to changes of the diffusive boundary layer surrounding the probe and thus to changes in the ambient flow velocity. The so-called stirring sensitivity of microsensors constitutes an inherent correlation of flow velocity and oxygen sensing and thus an artificial flux which can confound the benthic flux determination. To assess the artificial flux we measured the correlation between the turbulent flow velocity and the signal of oxygen microsensors in a sealed annular flume without any oxygen sinks and sources. Experiments revealed significant correlations, even for sensors designed to have low stirring sensitivities of ~0.7%. The artificial fluxes depended on ambient flow conditions and, counter intuitively, increased at higher velocities because of the nonlinear contribution of turbulent velocity fluctuations. The measured artificial fluxes ranged from 2 - 70 mmol m**-2 d**-1 for weak and very strong turbulent flow, respectively. Further, the stirring sensitivity depended on the sensor orientation towards the flow. Optical microsensors (optodes) that should not exhibit a stirring sensitivity were tested in parallel and did not show any significant correlation between O2 signals and turbulent flow. In conclusion, EC data obtained with electrochemical sensors can be affected by artificial flux and we recommend using optical microsensors in future EC-studies. Flume experiments were conducted in February 2013 at the Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Koblenz-Landau Landau. Experiments were performed in a closed oval-shaped acrylic glass flume with cross-sectional width of 4 cm and height of 10 cm and total length of 54 cm. The fluid flow was induced by a propeller driven by a motor and mean flow velocities of up to 20 cm s-1 were generated by applying voltages between 0 V and 4 V DC. The flume was completely sealed with an acrylic glass cover. Oxygen sensors were inserted through rubber seal fittings and allowed positioning the sensors with inclinations to the main flow direction of ~60°, ~95° and ~135°. A Clark type electrochemical O2 microsensor with a low stirring sensitivity (0.7%) was tested and a fast-responding needle-type O2 optode (PyroScience GmbH, Germany) was used as reference as optodes should not be stirring sensitive. Instantaneous three-dimensional flow velocities were measured at 7.4 Hz using stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV). The velocity at the sensor tip was extracted. The correlation of the fluctuating O2 sensor signals and the fluctuating velocities was quantified with a cross-correlation analysis. A significant cross-correlation is equivalent to a significant artificial flux. For a total of 18 experiments the flow velocity was adjusted between 1.7 and 19.2 cm s**-1, and 3 different orientations of the electrochemical sensor were tested with inclination angles of ~60°, ~95° and ~135° with respect to the main flow direction. In experiments 16-18, wavelike flow was induced, whereas in all other experiments the motor was driven by constant voltages. In 7 experiments, O2 was additionally measured by optodes. Although performed simultaneously with the electrochemical sensor, optode measurements are listed as separate experiments (denoted by the attached 'op' in the filename), because the velocity time series was extracted at the optode tip, located at a different position in the flume.

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.

Theoretical analysis and numerical verification of the consistency of viscous smoothed-particle-hydrodynamics formulations in simulating free-surface flows

The theoretical formulation of the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method deserves great care because of some inconsistencies occurring when considering free-surface inviscid flows. Actually, in SPH formulations one usually assumes that (i) surface integral terms on the boundary of the interpolation kernel support are neglected, (ii) free-surface conditions are implicitly verified. These assumptions are studied in detail in the present work for free-surface Newtonian viscous flow. The consistency of classical viscous weakly compressible SPH formulations is investigated. In particular, the principle of virtual work is used to study the verification of the free-surface boundary conditions in a weak sense. The latter can be related to the global energy dissipation induced by the viscous term formulations and their consistency. Numerical verification of this theoretical analysis is provided on three free-surface test cases including a standing wave, with the three viscous term formulations investigated.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under sprinkler irrigation in a semiarid climate determined by the surface renewal method

The evapotranspiration (ETc) of sprinkler-irrigated rice was determined for the semiarid conditions of NE Spain during 2001, 2002 and 2003. The surface renewal method, after calibration against the eddy covariance method, was used to obtain values of sensible heat flux (H) from high-frequency temperature readings. Latent heat flux values were obtained by solving the energy balance equation. Finally, lysimeter measurements were used to validate the evapotranspiration values obtained with the surface renewal method. Seasonal rice evapotranspiration was about 750–800 mm. Average daily ETc for mid-season (from 90 to 130 days after sowing) was 5.1, 4.5 and 6.1 mm day−1 for 2001, 2002 and 2003, respectively. The experimental weekly crop coefficients fluctuated in the range of 0.83–1.20 for 2001, 0.81–1.03 for 2002 and 0.84–1.15 for 2003. The total growing season was about 150–160 days. In average, the crop coefficients for the initial (Kcini), mid-season (Kcmid) and late-season stages (Kcend) were 0.92, 1.06 and 1.03, respectively, the length of these stages being about 55, 45 and 25 days, respectively.

The internal structure of hydrogen-air difussion flames

The Internal Structure of Hydrogen-Air Diffusion Flames. Tho purpose of this paper is to study finite rate chemistry effects in diffusion controlled hydrogenair flames undor conditions appearing in some cases in a supersonic combustor. Since for large reaction rates the flame is close to chemical equilibrium, the reaction takes place in a very thin region, so thata "singular perturbation "treatment" of the problem seems appropriate. It has been shown previously that, within the inner or reaction zone, convection effects may be neglocted, the temperature is constant across the flame, and tho mass fraction distributions are given by ordinary differential equations, whore tho only independent variable involved is tho coordinate normal to the flame surface. Tho solution of the outer problom, which is a pure mixing problem with the additional condition that fuol and oxidizer do not coexist in any zone, provides t h e following information: tho flame position, rates of fuel consumption, temperature, concentrators of species, fluid velocity outside of tho flame, and the boundary conditions required to solve the "inner problem." The main contribution of this paper consists in the introduction of a fairly complicated chemical kinetic scheme representing hydrogen-oxygen reaction. The nonlinear equations expressing the conservation of chemical species are approximately integrated by means of an integral method. It has boen found that, in the case considered of a near-equilibrium diffusion flame, tho role played by the dissociation-recombination reactions is purely marginal, and that somo of the second order "shuffling" reactions are close to equilibrium. The method shown here may be applied to compute the distanco from the injector corresponding to a given separation from equilibrium, say ten to twenty percent. For the casos whore this length is a small fraction of the combustion zone length, the equilibrium treatment describes properly tho flame behavior.

Estudio y desarrollo de un preproceso basado en la difusión no lineal para la segmentación en imágenes

En esta Tesis Doctoral se aborda la utilización de filtros de difusión no lineal para obtener imágenes constantes a trozos como paso previo al proceso de segmentación. En una primera parte se propone un formulación intrínseca para la ecuación de difusión no lineal que proporcione las condiciones de diseño necesarias sobre los filtros de difusión. A partir del marco teórico propuesto, se proporciona una nueva familia de difusividades; éstas son obtenidas a partir de técnicas de difusión no lineal relacionadas con los procesos de difusión regresivos. El objetivo es descomponer la imagen en regiones cerradas que sean homogéneas en sus niveles de grises sin contornos difusos. Asimismo, se prueba que la función de difusividad propuesta satisface las condiciones de un correcto planteamiento semi-discreto. Esto muestra que mediante el esquema semi-implícito habitualmente utilizado, realmente se hace un proceso de difusión no lineal directa, en lugar de difusión inversa, conectando con proceso de preservación de bordes. Bajo estas condiciones establecidas, se plantea un criterio de parada para el proceso de difusión, para obtener imágenes constantes a trozos con un bajo coste computacional. Una vez aplicado todo el proceso al caso unidimensional, se extienden los resultados teóricos, al caso de imágenes en 2D y 3D. Para el caso en 3D, se detalla el esquema numérico para el problema evolutivo no lineal, con condiciones de contorno Neumann homogéneas. Finalmente, se prueba el filtro propuesto para imágenes reales en 2D y 3D y se ilustran los resultados de la difusividad propuesta como método para obtener imágenes constantes a trozos. En el caso de imágenes 3D, se aborda la problemática del proceso previo a la segmentación del hígado, mediante imágenes reales provenientes de Tomografías Axiales Computarizadas (TAC). En ese caso, se obtienen resultados sobre la estimación de los parámetros de la función de difusividad propuesta. This Ph.D. Thesis deals with the case of using nonlinear diffusion filters to obtain piecewise constant images as a previous process for segmentation techniques. I have first shown an intrinsic formulation for the nonlinear diffusion equation to provide some design conditions on the diffusion filters. According to this theoretical framework, I have proposed a new family of diffusivities; they are obtained from nonlinear diffusion techniques and are related with backward diffusion. Their goal is to split the image in closed contours with a homogenized grey intensity inside and with no blurred edges. It has also proved that the proposed filters satisfy the well-posedness semi-discrete and full discrete scale-space requirements. This shows that by using semi-implicit schemes, a forward nonlinear diffusion equation is solved, instead of a backward nonlinear diffusion equation, connecting with an edgepreserving process. Under the conditions established for the diffusivity and using a stopping criterion I for the diffusion time, I have obtained piecewise constant images with a low computational effort. The whole process in the one-dimensional case is extended to the case where 2D and 3D theoretical results are applied to real images. For 3D, develops in detail the numerical scheme for nonlinear evolutionary problem with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Finally, I have tested the proposed filter with real images for 2D and 3D and I have illustrated the effects of the proposed diffusivity function as a method to get piecewise constant images. For 3D I have developed a preprocess for liver segmentation with real images from CT (Computerized Tomography). In this case, I have obtained results on the estimation of the parameters of the given diffusivity function.

Electromagnetic analysis of periodic structures under a waveguide viewpoint

The fundamental objective of this Ph. D. dissertation is to demonstrate that, under particular circumstances which cover most of the structures with practical interest, periodic structures can be understood and analyzed by means of closed waveguide theories and techniques. To that aim, in the first place a transversely periodic cylindrical structure is considered and the wave equation, under a combination of perfectly conducting and periodic boundary conditions, is studied. This theoretical study runs parallel to the classic analysis of perfectly conducting closed waveguides. Under the light shed by the aforementioned study it is clear that, under certain very common periodicity conditions, transversely periodic cylindrical structures share a lot of properties with closed waveguides. Particularly, they can be characterized by a complete set of TEM, TE and TM modes. As a result, this Ph. D. dissertation introduces the transversely periodic waveguide concept. Once the analogies between the modes of a transversely periodic waveguide and the ones of a closed waveguide have been established, a generalization of a well-known closed waveguide characterization method, the generalized Transverse Resonance Technique, is developed for the obtention of transversely periodic modes. At this point, all the necessary elements for the consideration of discontinuities between two different transversely periodic waveguides are at our disposal. The analysis of this type of discontinuities will be carried out by means of another well known closed waveguide method, the Mode Matching technique. This Ph. D. dissertation contains a sufficient number of examples, including the analysis of a wire-medium slab, a cross-shaped patches periodic surface and a parallel plate waveguide with a textured surface, that demonstrate that the Transverse Resonance Technique - Mode Matching hybrid is highly precise, efficient and versatile. Thus, the initial statement: ”periodic structures can be understood and analyzed by means of closed waveguide theories and techniques”, will be corroborated. Finally, this Ph. D. dissertation contains an adaptation of the aforementioned generalized Transverse Resonance Technique by means of which the analysis of laterally open periodic waveguides, such as the well known Substrate Integrated Waveguides, can be carried out without any approximation. The analysis of this type of structures has suscitated a lot of interest in the recent past and the previous analysis techniques proposed always resorted to some kind of fictitious wall to close the structure. vii Resumen El principal objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es demostrar que, bajo ciertas circunstancias que se cumplen para la gran mayoría de estructuras con interés práctico, las estructuras periódicas se pueden analizar y entender con conceptos y técnicas propias de las guías de onda cerradas. Para ello, en un primer lugar se considera una estructura cilíndrical transversalmente periódica y se estudia la ecuación de onda bajo una combinación de condiciones de contorno periódicas y de conductor perfecto. Este estudio teórico y de caracter general, sigue el análisis clásico de las guías de onda cerradas por conductor eléctrico perfecto. A la luz de los resultados queda claro que, bajo ciertas condiciones de periodicidad (muy comunes en la práctica) las estructuras cilíndricas transversalmente periódicas guardan multitud de analogías con las guías de onda cerradas. En particular, pueden ser descritas mediante un conjunto completo de modos TEM, TE y TM. Por ello, ésta tesis introduce el concepto de guía de onda transversalmente periódica. Una vez establecidas las similitudes entre las soluciones de la ecuación de onda, bajo una combinación de condiciones de contorno periódicas y de conductor perfecto, y los modos de guías de onda cerradas, se lleva a cabo, con éxito, la adaptación de un conocido método de caracterización de guías de onda cerradas, la técnica de la Resonancia Transversal Generalizada, para la obtención de los modos de guías transversalmente periódicas. En este punto, se tienen todos los elementos necesarios para considerar discontinuidades entre guías de onda transversalmente periódicas. El analisis de este tipo de discontinuidades se llevará a cabo mediante otro conocido método de análisis de estructuras cerradas, el Ajuste Modal. Esta tesis muestra multitud de ejemplos, como por ejemplo el análisis de un wire-medium slab, una superficie de parches con forma de cruz o una guía de placas paralelas donde una de dichas placas tiene cierta textura, en los que se demuestra que el método híbrido formado por la Resonancia Transversal Generalizada y el Ajuste Modal, es tremendamente preciso, eficiente y versátil y confirmará la validez de el enunciado inicial: ”las estructuras periódicas se pueden analizar y entender con conceptos y técnicas propias de las guías de onda cerradas” Para terminar, esta tésis doctoral incluye también una modificación de la técnica de la Resonancia Transversal Generalizada mediante la cual es posible abordar el análisis de estructuras periódica abiertas en los laterales, como por ejemplo las famosas guías de onda integradas en sustrato, sin ninguna aproximación. El análisis de este tipo de estructuras ha despertado mucho interés en los últimos años y las técnicas de análisis propuestas hasta ix el momento acostumbran a recurrir a algún tipo de pared ficticia para simular el carácter abierto de la estructura.

Diseño de un modelo de riesgo integral de incendios forestales mediante técnicas multicriterio y su automatización en sistemas de información geográfica : una aplicación en la Comunidad Valenciana

Los incendios forestales son la principal causa de mortalidad de árboles en la Europa mediterránea y constituyen la amenaza más seria para los ecosistemas forestales españoles. En la Comunidad Valenciana, diariamente se despliega cerca de un centenar de vehículos de vigilancia, cuya distribución se apoya, fundamentalmente, en un índice de riesgo de incendios calculado en función de las condiciones meteorológicas. La tesis se centra en el diseño y validación de un nuevo índice de riesgo integrado de incendios, especialmente adaptado a la región mediterránea y que facilite el proceso de toma de decisiones en la distribución diaria de los medios de vigilancia contra incendios forestales. El índice adopta el enfoque de riesgo integrado introducido en la última década y que incluye dos componentes de riesgo: el peligro de ignición y la vulnerabilidad. El primero representa la probabilidad de que se inicie un fuego y el peligro potencial para que se propague, mientras que la vulnerabilidad tiene en cuenta las características del territorio y los efectos potenciales del fuego sobre el mismo. Para el cálculo del peligro potencial se han identificado indicadores relativos a los agentes naturales y humanos causantes de incendios, la ocurrencia histórica y el estado de los combustibles, extremo muy relacionado con la meteorología y las especies. En cuanto a la vulnerabilidad se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructuras de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). Todos estos indicadores constituyen una estructura jerárquica en la que, siguiendo las recomendaciones de la Comisión europea para índices de riesgo de incendios, se han incluido indicadores representativos del riesgo a corto plazo y a largo plazo. El cálculo del valor final del índice se ha llevado a cabo mediante la progresiva agregación de los componentes que forman cada uno de los niveles de la estructura jerárquica del índice y su integración final. Puesto que las técnicas de decisión multicriterio están especialmente orientadas a tratar con problemas basados en estructuras jerárquicas, se ha aplicado el método TOPSIS para obtener la integración final del modelo. Se ha introducido en el modelo la opinión de los expertos, mediante la ponderación de cada uno de los componentes del índice. Se ha utilizado el método AHP, para obtener las ponderaciones de cada experto y su integración en un único peso por cada indicador. Para la validación del índice se han empleado los modelos de Ecuaciones de Estimación Generalizadas, que tienen en cuenta posibles respuestas correlacionadas. Para llevarla a cabo se emplearon los datos de oficiales de incendios ocurridos durante el período 1994 al 2003, referenciados a una cuadrícula de 10x10 km empleando la ocurrencia de incendios y su superficie, como variables dependientes. Los resultados de la validación muestran un buen funcionamiento del subíndice de peligro de ocurrencia con un alto grado de correlación entre el subíndice y la ocurrencia, un buen ajuste del modelo logístico y un buen poder discriminante. Por su parte, el subíndice de vulnerabilidad no ha presentado una correlación significativa entre sus valores y la superficie de los incendios, lo que no descarta su validez, ya que algunos de sus componentes tienen un carácter subjetivo, independiente de la superficie incendiada. En general el índice presenta un buen funcionamiento para la distribución de los medios de vigilancia en función del peligro de inicio. No obstante, se identifican y discuten nuevas líneas de investigación que podrían conducir a una mejora del ajuste global del índice. En concreto se plantea la necesidad de estudiar más profundamente la aparente correlación que existe en la provincia de Valencia entre la superficie forestal que ocupa cada cuadrícula de 10 km del territorio y su riesgo de incendios y que parece que a menor superficie forestal, mayor riesgo de incendio. Otros aspectos a investigar son la sensibilidad de los pesos de cada componente o la introducción de factores relativos a los medios potenciales de extinción en el subíndice de vulnerabilidad. Summary Forest fires are the main cause of tree mortality in Mediterranean Europe and the most serious threat to the Spanisf forest. In the Spanish autonomous region of Valencia, forest administration deploys a mobile fleet of 100 surveillance vehicles in forest land whose allocation is based on meteorological index of wildlandfire risk. This thesis is focused on the design and validation of a new Integrated Wildland Fire Risk Index proposed to efficient allocation of vehicles and specially adapted to the Mediterranean conditions. Following the approaches of integrated risk developed last decade, the index includes two risk components: Wildland Fire Danger and Vulnerability. The former represents the probability a fire ignites and the potential hazard of fire propagation or spread danger, while vulnerability accounts for characteristics of the land and potential effects of fire. To calculate the Wildland Fire Danger, indicators of ignition and spread danger have been identified, including human and natural occurrence agents, fuel conditions, historical occurrence and spread rate. Regarding vulnerability se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructurasd de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). These indicators make up the hierarchical structure for the index, which, following the criteria of the European Commission both short and long-term indicators have been included. Integration consists of the progressive aggregation of the components that make up every level in risk the index and, after that, the integration of these levels to obtain a unique value for the index. As Munticriteria methods are oriented to deal with hierarchically structured problems and with situations in which conflicting goals prevail, TOPSIS method is used in the integration of components. Multicriteria methods were also used to incorporate expert opinion in weighting of indicators and to carry out the aggregation process into the final index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method was used to aggregate experts' opinions on each component into a single value. Generalized Estimation Equations, which account for possible correlated responses, were used to validate the index. Historical records of daily occurrence for the period from 1994 to 2003, referred to a 10x10-km-grid cell, as well as the extent of the fires were the dependant variables. The results of validation showed good Wildland Fire Danger component performance, with high correlation degree between Danger and occurrence, a good fit of the logistic model used and a good discrimination power. The vulnerability component has not showed a significant correlation between their values and surface fires, which does not mean the index is not valid, because of the subjective character of some of its components, independent of the surface of the fires. Overall, the index could be used to optimize the preventing resources allocation. Nevertheless, new researching lines are identified and discussed to improve the overall performance of the index. More specifically the need of study the inverse relationship between the value of the wildfire Fire Danger component and the forested surface of each 10 - km cell is set out. Other points to be researched are the sensitivity of the index component´s weight and the possibility of taking into account indicators related to fire fighting resources to make up the vulnerability component.

Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos