Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China's fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (-364±64 mm/yr, ∼70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ∼ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ∼ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Modeling of titanium alloys by using artificial neural networks

Titanium alloy exhibits an excellent combination of bio-compatibility, corrosion resistance, strength and toughness. The microstructure of an alloy influences the properties. The microstructures depend mainly on alloying elements, method of production, mechanical, and thermal treatments. The relationships between these variables and final properties of the alloy are complex, non-linear in nature, which is the biggest hurdle in developing proper correlations between them by conventional methods. So, we developed artificial neural networks (ANN) models for solving these complex phenomena in titanium alloys.

In the present work, ANN models were used for the analysis and prediction of the correlation between the process parameters, the alloying elements, microstructural features, beta transus temperature and mechanical properties in titanium alloys. Sensitivity analysis of trained neural network models were studied which resulted a better understanding of relationships between inputs and outputs. The model predictions and the analysis are well in agreement with the experimental results. The simulation results show that the average output-prediction error by models are less than 5% of the prediction range in more than 95% of the cases, which is quite acceptable for all metallurgical purposes.

Artificial Neural Network for Compositional Ionic Liquid Viscosity Prediction

Being a new generation of green solvents and high-tech reaction media of the future, ionic liquids have increasingly attracted much attention. Of particular interest in this context are room temperature ionic liquids (in short as ILs in this paper). Due to the relatively high viscosity, ILs is expected to be used in the form of solvent diluted mixture with reduced viscosity in industrial application, where predicting the viscosity of IL mixture has been an important research issue. Different IL mixture and many modelling approaches have been investigated. The objective of this study is to provide an alternative model approach using soft computing technique, i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) model, to predict the compositional viscosity of binary mixtures of ILs [C _n-mim][NTf ₂] with n=4, 6, 8, 10 in methanol and ethanol over the entire range of molar fraction at a broad range of temperatures from T=293.0-328.0K. The results show that the proposed ANN model provides alternative way to predict compositional viscosity successfully with highly improved accuracy and also show its potential to be extensively utilized to predict compositional viscosity taking account of IL alkyl chain length, as well as temperature and compositions simultaneously, i.e., more complex intermolecular interactions between components in which it would be hard or impossible to establish the analytical model. This illustrates the potential application of ANN in the case that the physical and thermodynamic properties are highly non-linear or too complex. © 2012 Copyright the authors.

Artificial neural network model to predict compositional viscosity over a broad range of temperatures

The objective of this study is to provide an alternative model approach, i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) model, to predict the compositional viscosity of binary mixtures of room temperature ionic liquids (in short as ILs) [C _n-mim] [NTf ₂] with n=4, 6, 8, 10 in methanol and ethanol over the entire range of molar fraction at a broad range of temperatures from T=293.0328.0K. The results show that the proposed ANN model provides alternative way to predict compositional viscosity successfully with highly improved accuracy and also show its potential to be extensively utilized to predict compositional viscosity over a wide range of temperatures and more complex viscosity compositions, i.e., more complex intermolecular interactions between components in which it would be hard or impossible to establish the analytical model. © 2010 IEEE.

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Factores que influenciam o peso e crescimento de cabritos da raça Murciana-granadina, em aleitamento artificial

A exploração caprina de leite tem evoluído no sentido de alguma intensificação, com recurso a raças de elevado potencial produtivo, de que é exemplo a raça Murciana- Granadina. O leite constitui a principal fonte de receita destas explorações. Complementarmente, vendem animais para carne e, as de melhor nível genético, animais para reprodutores. Analisaram-se os pesos de 241 cabritos da raça Murciana-Granadina, numa exploração comercial, com o objectivo de quantificar os pesos e crescimento de cabritos, e identificar os factores que os influenciam. Os cabritos foram aleitados artificialmente, em regime ad libitum, com leite de substituição comercial, dispondo ainda de concentrado comercial, feno de luzerna e palha. Os cabritos foram pesados ao nascimento e, posteriormente, semanalmente, até aos 60 dias de idade. Calcularam-se os respetivos pesos ajustados, bem como os ganhos médios diários, a diferentes idades padrão. Procedeu-se a uma análise de variância com um modelo linear que incluiu os efeitos da época de parto, tipo de parto, sexo e idade da cabra. Foram registados pesos superiores nos partos simples e duplos, relativamente aos triplos, e nos machos, relativamente às fêmeas. Os ganhos médios diários, a partir do mês de idade, registaram valores inferiores na época inverno-primavera, comparativamente com a época primavera-verão. Dairy goat farming has evolved towards intensification, with increased use of high milk-yielding breeds, including the Murciano-Granadina breed. Milk is the main source of farm income. Secondary income sources are the sale of animals for meat and, in genetically superior herds, the sale of breeding animals. The weights of 241 commercial farms artificially reared Murciano-Granadina kids were analyzed with the objective of quantifying weight and growth and identifying variation factors. Kids were artificially reared to weaning, on ad libitum commercial milk replacer, commercial concentrate, lucerne hay and straw. Kids were weighed at birth and at weekly intervals until 60 days of age. Age adjusted weights and growth-rates were calculated. A variance analysis was performed with a model including the effects of season of birth, number of kids per kidding, sex and age of dam. Single and twin-born kids had higher weights than triplets, and males had higher weights than females. Average daily gain after one month of age was lower for kids born in winter-spring than for those born in spring-summer

Satellite DNA as a target for TaqMan real-time PCR detection of the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus

The pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus , is a major pathogen of conifers, which impacts on forest health, natural ecosystem stability and international trade. As a consequence, it has been listed as a quarantine organism in Europe. A real-time PCR approach based on TaqMan chemistry was developed to detect this organism. Specific probe and primers were designed based on the sequence of the Msp I satellite DNA family previously characterized in the genome of the nematode. The method proved to be specific in tests with target DNA from PWN isolates from worldwide origin. From a practical point of view, detection limit was 1 pg of target DNA or one individual nematode. In addition, PWN genomic DNA or single individuals were positively detected in mixed samples in which B. xylophilius was associated with the closely related non-pathogenic species B. mucronatus , up to the limit of 0.01% or 1% of the mixture, respectively. The real-time PCR assay was also used in conjunction with a simple DNA extraction method to detect PWN directly in artificially infested wood samples. These results demonstrate the potential of this assay to provide rapid, accurate and sensitive molecular identification of the PWN in relation to pest risk assessment in the field and quarantine regulation.