Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus) at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped sample. Hence the trend is determined by the recruitment decisions of externally reared birds, rather than demographic factors operating on the local breeding population, an unusual situation for a colonial marine bird. Because of the contraction in the colony it may now be subject to a level of predation pressure from which recovery will be impossible without some form of intervention.

Wavelets and the generalization of the variogram

The experimental variogram computed in the usual way by the method of moments and the Haar wavelet transform are similar in that they filter data and yield informative summaries that may be interpreted. The variogram filters out constant values; wavelets can filter variation at several spatial scales and thereby provide a richer repertoire for analysis and demand no assumptions other than that of finite variance. This paper compares the two functions, identifying that part of the Haar wavelet transform that gives it its advantages. It goes on to show that the generalized variogram of order k=1, 2, and 3 filters linear, quadratic, and cubic polynomials from the data, respectively, which correspond with more complex wavelets in Daubechies's family. The additional filter coefficients of the latter can reveal features of the data that are not evident in its usual form. Three examples in which data recorded at regular intervals on transects are analyzed illustrate the extended form of the variogram. The apparent periodicity of gilgais in Australia seems to be accentuated as filter coefficients are added, but otherwise the analysis provides no new insight. Analysis of hyerpsectral data with a strong linear trend showed that the wavelet-based variograms filtered it out. Adding filter coefficients in the analysis of the topsoil across the Jurassic scarplands of England changed the upper bound of the variogram; it then resembled the within-class variogram computed by the method of moments. To elucidate these results, we simulated several series of data to represent a random process with values fluctuating about a mean, data with long-range linear trend, data with local trend, and data with stepped transitions. The results suggest that the wavelet variogram can filter out the effects of long-range trend, but not local trend, and of transitions from one class to another, as across boundaries.

Exploring the spatial relations between soil physical properties and apparent electrical conductivity

Relations between the apparent electrical conductivity of the soil (ECa) and top- and sub-soil physical properties were examined for two arable fields in southern England (Crowmarsh Battle Farms and the Yattendon Estate). The spatial variation of ECa and the soil properties was explored geostatistically. The variogram ranges showed that ECa varied on a similar spatial scale to many of the soil physical properties in both fields. Several features in the map of kriged predictions of ECa were also evident in maps of the soil properties. In addition, the correlation coefficients showed a strong relation between ECa and several soil properties. A moving correlation analysis enabled differences in the relations between ECa and the soil properties to be examined within the fields. The results indicated that relations were inconsistent; they were stronger in some areas than others. A regression of ECa on the principal component scores of the leading components for both fields showed that the first two components accounted for a large proportion of the variance in ECa, whereas the others accounted for little or none. For Crowmarsh topsoil sand and clay, loss on ignition and volumetric water measured in the autumn had large correlations on the first component, and for Yattendon they were large for topsoil sand and clay, and autumn and spring volumetric water. The cross-variograms suggested strong coregionalization between ECa and several soil physical properties; in particular subsoil sand and silt at Crowmarsh, and subsoil sand and clay at Yattendon. The structural correlations from the linear model of coregionalization confirmed the strength of the relations between ECa and the subsoil properties. Nevertheless, no one property was consistently important for both fields. Although a map of ECa can indicate the general patterns of spatial variation in the soil, it is not a substitute for information on soil properties obtained by sampling and analysing the soil. Nevertheless, it could be used to guide further sampling. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30-min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric-based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causes of the apparent scale independence of fractal indices associated with forest fragmentation in Bolivia

In a recent investigation, Landsat TM and ETM+ data were used to simulate different resolutions of remotely-sensed images (from 30 to 1100 m) and to analyze the effect of resolution on a range of landscape metrics associated with spatial patterns of forest fragmentation in Chapare, Bolivia since the mid-1980s. Whereas most metrics were found to be highly dependent on pixel size, several fractal metrics (DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD) were apparently independent of image resolution, in contradiction with a sizeable body of literature indicating that fractal dimensions of natural objects depend strongly on image characteristics. The present re-analysis of the Chapare images, using two alternative algorithms routinely used for the evaluation of fractal dimensions, shows that the values of the box-counting and information fractal dimensions are systematically larger, sometimes by as much as 85%, than the "fractal" indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMFD for the same images. In addition, the geometrical fractal features of the forest and non-forest patches in the Chapare region strongly depend on the resolution of images used in the analysis. The largest dependency on resolution occurs for the box-counting fractal dimension in the case of the non-forest patches in 1993, where the difference between the 30 and I 100 m-resolution images corresponds to 24% of the full theoretical range (1.0 to 2.0) of the mass fractal dimension. The observation that the indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD, unlike the classical fractal dimensions, appear relatively unaffected by resolution in the case of the Chapare images seems due essentially to the fact that these indices are based on a heuristic, "non-geometric" approach to fractals. Because of their lack of a foundation in fractal geometry, nothing guarantees that these indices will be resolution-independent in general. (C) 2006 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The diurnal course of soil moisture as measured by various dielectric sensors: Effects of soil temperature and the implications for evaporation estimates

Soil moisture content, theta, of a bare and vegetated UK gravelly sandy loam soil (in situ and repacked in small lysimeters) was measured using various dielectric instruments (single-sensor ThetaProbes, multi-sensor Profile Probes, and Aquaflex Sensors), at depths ranging between 0.03 and I m, during the summers of 2001 (in situ soil) and 2002 (mini-lysimeters). Half-hourly values of evaporation, E, were calculated from diurnal changes in total soil profile water content, using the soil water balance equation. For the bare soil field, Profile Probes and ML2x ThetaProbes indicated a diurnal course of theta that did not concur with typical soil physical observations: surface layer soil moisture content increased from early morning until about midday, after which theta declined, generally until the early evening. The unexpected course of theta was positively correlated to soil temperature, T-s, also at deeper depths. Aquaflex and ML1 ThetaProbe (older models) outputs, however, reflected common observations: 0 increased slightly during the night (capillary rise) and decreased from the morning until late afternoon (as a result of evaporation). For the vegetated plot, the spurious diurnal theta fluctuations were less obvious, because canopy shading resulted in lower amplitudes of T-s. The unrealistic theta profiles measured for the bare and vegetated field sites caused diurnal estimates of E to attain downward daytime and upward night-time values. In the mini-lysimeters, at medium to high moisture contents, theta values measured by (ML2x) ThetaProbes followed a relatively realistic course, and predictions of E from diurnal changes in vertically integrated theta generally compared well with lysimeter estimates of E. However, time courses of theta and E became comparable to those observed for the field plots when the soil in the lysimeters reached relatively low values of theta. Attempts to correct measured theta for fluctuations in T, revealed that no generally applicable formula could be derived. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A kinematically distorted flux rope model for magnetic clouds

Constant-α force-free magnetic flux rope models have proven to be a valuable first step toward understanding the global context of in situ observations of magnetic clouds. However, cylindrical symmetry is necessarily assumed when using such models, and it is apparent from both observations and modeling that magnetic clouds have highly noncircular cross sections. A number of approaches have been adopted to relax the circular cross section approximation: frequently, the cross-sectional shape is allowed to take an arbitrarily chosen shape (usually elliptical), increasing the number of free parameters that are fit between data and model. While a better “fit” may be achieved in terms of reducing the mean square error between the model and observed magnetic field time series, it is not always clear that this translates to a more accurate reconstruction of the global structure of the magnetic cloud. We develop a new, noncircular cross section flux rope model that is constrained by observations of CMEs/ICMEs and knowledge of the physical processes acting on the magnetic cloud: The magnetic cloud is assumed to initially take the form of a force-free flux rope in the low corona but to be subsequently deformed by a combination of axis-centered self-expansion and heliocentric radial expansion. The resulting analytical solution is validated by fitting to artificial time series produced by numerical MHD simulations of magnetic clouds and shown to accurately reproduce the global structure.

Redefinition of the kilogram: a decision whose time has come

The kilogram, the base unit of mass in the International System of Units (SI), is defined as the mass m(K) of the international prototype of the kilogram. Clearly, this definition has the effect of fixing the value of m(K) to be one kilogram exactly. In this paper, we review the benefits that would accrue if the kilogram were redefined so as to fix the value of either the Planck constant h or the Avogadro constant NA instead of m(K), without waiting for the experiments to determine h or NA currently underway to reach their desired relative standard uncertainty of about 10−8. A significant reduction in the uncertainties of the SI values of many other fundamental constants would result from either of these new definitions, at the expense of making the mass m(K) of the international prototype a quantity whose value would have to be determined by experiment. However, by assigning a conventional value to m(K), the present highly precise worldwide uniformity of mass standards could still be retained. The advantages of redefining the kilogram immediately outweigh any apparent disadvantages, and we review the alternative forms that a new definition might take.

Anharmonic force constant calculations

The relationship of the anharmonic force constants in curvilinear internal coordinates to the observed vibration-rotation spectrum of a molecule is reviewed. A simplified method of setting up the required non-linear coordinate transformations is described: this makes use of an / tensor, which is a straightforward generalization of the / matrix used in the customary description of harmonic force constant calculations. General formulae for the / tensor elements, in terms of the familiar L matrix elements, are presented. The use of non-linear symmetry coordinates and redundancies are described. Sample calculations on the water and ammonia molecules are reported.

Raman selection rules for vibration-rotation transitions in symmetric top molecules

Symmetry restrictions on Raman selection rules can be obtained, quite generally, by considering a Raman allowed transition as the result of two successive dipole allowed transitions, and imposing the usual symmetry restrictions on the dipole transitions. This leads to the same results as the more familiar polarizability theory, but the vibration-rotation selection rules are easier to obtain by this argument. The selection rules for symmetric top molecules involving the (+l) and (-l) components of a degenerate vibrational level with first-order Coriolis splitting are derived in this paper. It is shown that these selection rules depend on the order of the highest-fold symmetry axis Cn, being different for molecules with n=3, n=4, or n ≧ 5; moreover the selection rules are different again for molecules belonging to the point groups Dnd with n even, and Sm with 1/2m even, for which the highest-fold symmetry axes Cn and Sm are related by m=2n. Finally it is shown that an apparent anomaly between the observed Raman and infra-red vibration-rotation spectra of the allene molecule is resolved when the correct selection rules are used, and a value for the A rotational constant of allene is derived without making use of the zeta sum rule.