An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

Spatial and temporal patterns in antimicrobial resistance of Salmonella Typhimurium in cattle in England and Wales

Salmonella is the second most commonly reported human foodborne pathogen in England and Wales, and antimicrobial-resistant strains of Salmonella are an increasing problem in both human and veterinary medicine. In this work we used a generalized linear spatial model to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella Typhimurium in England and Wales. Of the antimicrobials considered we found a common peak in the probability that an S. Typhimurium incident will show resistance to a given antimicrobial in late spring and in mid to late autumn; however, for one of the antimicrobials (streptomycin) there was a sharp drop, over the last 18 months of the period of investigation, in the probability of resistance. We also found a higher probability of resistance in North Wales which is consistent across the antimicrobials considered. This information contributes to our understanding of the epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella.

Identifying antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance within Salmonella isolated from food animals in Great Britain

To investigate the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance in Salmonella isolated from livestock in Great Britain. Two hundred and twenty-five Salmonella enterica isolates were characterized using an antimicrobial resistance gene chip and disc diffusion assays. Plasmid profiling, conjugation experiments and identification of Salmonella genomic island 1 (SGI1) were performed for selected isolates. Approximately 43% of Salmonella harboured single or multiple antimicrobial resistance genes with pig isolates showing the highest numbers where 96% of Salmonella Typhimurium harboured one or more resistance genes. Isolates harbouring multiple resistances divided into three groups. Group 1 isolates harboured ampicillin/streptomycin/sulphonamide/tetracycline resistance and similar phenotypes. This group contained isolates from pigs, cattle and poultry that were from several serovars including Typhimurium, 4,[5],12:i:-, Derby, Ohio and Indiana. All Group 2 isolates were from pigs and were Salmonella Typhimurium. They contained a non-sul-type class 1 integron and up to 13 transferrable resistances. All Group 3 isolates harboured a class 1 integron and were isolated from all animal species included in the study. Most isolates were Salmonella Typhimurium and harboured SGI1. Salmonella isolated from livestock was shown to harbour antimicrobial resistance genes although no or little resistance to third-generation cephalosporins or ciprofloxacin, respectively, was detected. The preponderance in pigs of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium makes it important to introduce control measures such as improved biosecurity to ensure that they do not pass through the food chain and limit human therapeutic options.

Virulotyping and antimicrobial resistance typing of salmonella enterica serovars relevant to human health in Europe

The combination of virulence gene and antimicrobial resistance gene typing using DNA arrays is a recently developed genomics-based approach to bacterial molecular epidemiology. We have now applied this technology to 523 Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica strains collected from various host sources and public health and veterinary institutes across nine European countries. The strain set included the five predominant Salmonella serovars isolated in Europe (Enteritidis, Typhimurium, Infantis, Virchow, and Hadar). Initially, these strains were screened for 10 potential virulence factors (avrA, ssaQ, mgtC, siiD, sopB, gipA, sodC1, sopE1, spvC, and bcfC) by polymerase chain reaction. The results indicated that only 14 profiles comprising these genes (virulotypes) were observed throughout Europe. Moreover, most of these virulotypes were restricted to only one (n = 9) or two (n = 4) serovars. The data also indicated that the virulotype did not vary significantly with host source or geographical location. Subsequently, a representative subset of 77 strains was investigated using a microarray designed to detect 102 virulence and 49 resistance determinants. The results confirmed and extended the previous observations using the virulo-polymerase chain reaction screen. Strains belonging to the same serovar grouped together, indicating that the broader virulence-associated gene complement corresponded with the serovar. There were, however, some differences in the virulence gene profiles between strains belonging to an individual serovar. This variation occurred primarily within those virulence genes that were prophage encoded, in fimbrial clusters or in the virulence plasmid. It seems likely that such changes enable Salmonella to adapt to different environmental conditions, which might be reflected in serovar-specific ecology. In this strain subset a number of resistance genes were detected and were serovar restricted to a varying degree. Once again the profiles of those genes encoding resistance were similar or the same for each serovar in all hosts and countries investigated.

A 96-well plate fluorescence assay for assessment of cellular permeability and active efflux in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium and Escherichia coli

Multiply antibiotic-resistant (MAR) mutants of Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica are characterized by reduced susceptibility to several unrelated antibiotics, biocides and other xenobiotics. Porin loss and/or active efflux have been identified as a key mechanisms of MAR. A single rapid test was developed for MAR. The intracellular accumulation of the fluorescent probe Hoechst (H) 33342 (bisbenzimide) by MAR mutants and those with defined disruptions in efflux pump and porin genes was determined in 96-well plate format. The accumulation of H33342 was significantly (P < 0.0001) reduced in MAR mutants of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium (n = 4) and E. coli (n = 3) by 41 +/- 8% and 17.3 +/- 7.2%, respectively, compared with their parental strains, which was reversed by the transmembrane proton gradient-collapsing agent carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) and the efflux pump inhibitor phenylalanine-arginine-beta-naphthylamide (PA beta N). The accumulation of H33342 was significantly reduced in mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium with defined disruptions in genes encoding the porins OmpC, OmpF, OmpX and OmpW, but increased in those with disruptions in efflux pump components TolC, AcrB and AcrF. Reduced accumulation of H33342 in three other MAR mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium correlated with the expression of porin and efflux pump proteins. The intracellular accumulation of H33342 provided a sensitive and specific test for MAR that is cheap and relatively rapid. Differential sensitivity to CCCP and PA beta N provided a further means to phenotypically identify MAR mutants and the role of active efflux in each strain.

High prevalence of multidrug-tolerant bacteria and associated antimicrobial resistance genes isolated from ornamental fish and their carriage water

Background: Antimicrobials are used to directly control bacterial infections in pet (ornamental) fish and are routinely added to the water these fish are shipped in to suppress the growth of potential pathogens during transport. Methodology/Principal Findings: To assess the potential effects of this sustained selection pressure, 127 Aeromonas spp. isolated from warm and cold water ornamental fish species were screened for tolerance to 34 antimicrobials. Representative isolates were also examined for the presence of 54 resistance genes by a combination of miniaturized microarray and conventional PCR. Forty-seven of 94 Aeromonas spp. isolates recovered from tropical ornamental fish and their carriage water were tolerant to >= 15 antibiotics, representing seven or more different classes of antimicrobial. The quinolone and fluoroquinolone resistance gene, qnrS2, was detected at high frequency (37% tested recent isolates were positive by PCR). Class 1 integrons, IncA/C broad host range plasmids and a range of other antibiotic resistance genes, including floR, blaTEM21, tet(A), tet(D), tet(E), qacE2, sul1, and a number of different dihydrofolate reductase and aminoglycoside transferase coding genes were also detected in carriage water samples and bacterial isolates. Conclusions: These data suggest that ornamental fish and their carriage water act as a reservoir for both multi-resistant bacteria and resistance genes.

A high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli isolated from pigs and a low prevalence of antimicrobial resistant E-coli from cattle and sheep in Great Britain at slaughter

The incidence of antimicrobial resistance and expressed and unexpressed resistance genes among commensal Escherichia coli isolated from healthy farm animals at slaughter in Great Britain was investigated. The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among the isolates varied according to the animal species; of 836 isolates from cattle tested only 5.7% were resistant to one or more antimicrobials, while only 3.0% of 836 isolates from sheep were resistant to one or more agents. However, 92.1% of 2480 isolates from pigs were resistant to at least one antimicrobial. Among isolates from pigs, resistance to some antimicrobials such as tetracycline (78.7%), sulphonamide (66.9%) and streptomycin (37.5%) was found to be common, but relatively rare to other agents such as amikacin (0.1%), ceftazidime ( 0.1%) and coamoxiclav (0.2%). The isolates had a diverse range of resistance gene profiles, with tet(B), sul2 and strAB identified most frequently. Seven out of 615 isolates investigated carried unexpressed resistance genes. One trimethoprim-susceptible isolate carried a complete dfrA17 gene but lacked a promoter for it. However, in the remaining six streptomycin-susceptible isolates, one of which carried strAB while the others carried aadA, no mutations or deletions in gene or promoter sequences were identified to account for susceptibility. The data indicate that antimicrobial resistance in E. coli of animal origin is due to a broad range of acquired genes.

Development of a miniaturised microarray-based assay for the rapid identification of antimicrobial resistance genes in Gram-negative bacteria

We describe the development of a miniaturised microarray for the detection of antimicrobial resistance genes in Gram-negative bacteria. Included on the array are genes encoding resistance to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim, sulphonamides, tetracyclines and beta-lactams, including extended-spectrum beta-lactamases. Validation of the array with control strains demonstrated a 99% correlation between polymerase chain reaction and array results. There was also good correlation between phenotypic and genotypic results for a large panel of Escherichia coli and Salmonella isolates. Some differences were also seen in the number and type of resistance genes harboured by E. coli and Salmonella strains. The array provides an effective, fast and simple method for detection of resistance genes in clinical isolates suitable for use in diagnostic laboratories, which in future will help to understand the epidemiology of isolates and to detect gene linkage in bacterial populations. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy.

In vitro evaluation of the antimicrobial activity of a range of probiotics against pathogens: Evidence for the effects of organic acids

The aim of this study was to investigate the antimicrobial properties of fifteen selected strains belonging to the Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, Lactococcus, Streptococcus and Bacillus genera against Gram-positive and Gram-negative pathogenic bacteria. In vitro antibacterial activity was initially investigated by an agar spot method. Results from the agar spot test showed that most of the selected strains were able to produce active compounds on solid media with antagonistic properties against Salmonella Typhimurium, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile. These results were also confirmed when cell-free culture supernatants (CFCS) from the putative probiotics were used in an agar well diffusion assay. Neutralization of the culture supernatants with alkali reduced the antagonistic effects. These experiments are able to confirm the capacity of potential probiotics to inhibit selected pathogens. One of the main inhibitory mechanisms may result from the production of organic acids from glucose fermentation and consequent lowering of culture pH. This observation was confirmed when the profile of organic acids was analysed demonstrating that lactic and acetic acid were the principal end products of probiotic metabolism. Furthermore, the assessment of the haemolytic activity and the susceptibility of the strains to the most commonly used antimicrobials, considered as basic safety aspects, were also studied. The observed antimicrobial activity was mainly genus-specific, additionally significant differences could be observed among species.

The gender gap in real estate sales: negotiation skill or agent selection?

This study examines differences in net selling price for residential real estate across male and female agents. A sample of 2,020 home sales transactions from Fulton County, Georgia are analyzed in a two-stage least squares, geospatial autoregressive corrected, semi-log hedonic model to test for gender and gender selection effects. Although agent gender seems to play a role in naïve models, its role becomes inconclusive as variables controlling for possible price and time on market expectations of the buyers and sellers are introduced to the models. Clear differences in real estate sales prices, time on market, and agent incomes across genders are unlikely due to differences in negotiation performance between genders or the mix of genders in a two-agent negotiation. The evidence suggests an interesting alternative to agent performance: that buyers and sellers with different reservation price and time on market expectations, such as those selling foreclosure homes, tend to select agents along gender lines.

In vivo characterization of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 for use as a defined competitive exclusion agent against bacterial pathogens in poultry

Aims: To test the efficacy of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 in reducing the colonization and shedding of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis, Escherichia coli O78:K80 and Clostridium perfringens in poultry. Methods and Results: Specific pathogen-free chicks (1 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU. Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged in separate experiments with S. Enteritidis (S1400, nal(r)) and E. coli O78:K80 (EC34195, nal(r)). There were no significant effects against S. Enteritidis whereas colonization of the small intestine by E. coli O78:K80 was reduced significantly. Both S. Enteritidis and E. coli colonized the caeca and colon to levels equivalent to control birds and there was no reduction in shedding as assessed by a semi-quantitative cloacal swabbing technique. Specific pathogen-free chicks (20 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU L. johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged with C. perfringens. A single oral dose of L. johnsonii FI9785 was sufficient to suppress all aspects of colonization and persistence of C. perfringens. Conclusions: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be given to poultry for use as a competitive exclusion agent to control C. perfringens. Significance and Impact of the Study: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be a valuable tool to control the endemic disease of necrotic enteritis, thereby reducing economic losses associated with reduced use of antimicrobials in the poultry industry.

Expression of the efflux pump genes cmeB, cmeF and the porin gene porA in multiple-antibiotic-resistant Campylobacter jejuni

Aims: In Escherichia coli, increased expression of efflux pumps and/or decreased expression of porins can confer multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR), causing resistance to at least three unrelated classes of antibiotics, detergents and dyes. It was hypothesized that in Campylobacter jejuni, the efflux systems CmeABC, CmeDEF and the major outer membrane porin protein, MOMP (encoded by porA) could confer MAR. Methods: The expression of cmeB, cmeF and porA in 32 MAR C. jejuni isolated from humans or poultry was determined by comparative (C)-reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR and denaturing DHPLC. A further 13 ethidium bromide-resistant isolates and three control strains were also investigated. Accumulation of ciprofloxacin carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) was also determined for all strains. Results: Although resistance to ethidium bromide has been associated with MAR, expression of all three genes was similar in the ethidium bromide-resistant isolates. These data indicate that CmeB, CmeF and MOMP play no role in resistance to this agent in C. jejuni. Six MAR isolates over-expressed cmeB, 3/32 over-expressed cmeB and cmeF. No isolates over-expressed cmeF alone. Expression of porA was similar in all isolates. All nine isolates that over-expressed cmeB contained a mutation in cmeR, substituting glycine 86 with alanine. All cmeB over-expressing isolates also accumulated low concentrations of ciprofloxacin, which were restored to wild-type levels in the presence of CCCP. Conclusions: These data indicate that over-expression of cmeB is associated with MAR in isolates of C. jejuni. However, as cmeB was over-expressed by only one-third (9/32) of MAR isolates, these data also indicate other mechanisms of MAR in C. jejuni.

Effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig

Aim: To assess the effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig. Methods and Results: Pigs ( treated with avilamycin for 3 months and controls) were challenged with multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 and faecal counts were performed for enterococci, Escherichia coli, S. Typhimurium and Campylobacter ( before, during and 5 weeks post-treatment). Representative isolates were tested for antibiotic resistance and for the presence of resistance genes. Avilamycin-resistant Enterococci faecalis (speciated by PCR) were isolated from the treated pigs and continued to be detected for the first week after treatment had ceased. The avilamycin- resistance gene was characterized by PCR as the emtA gene and speciation by PCR. MIC profiling confirmed that more than one strain of Ent. faecalis carried this gene. There was no evidence of increased antimicrobial resistance in the E. coli, Salmonella and Campylobacter populations, although there was a higher incidence of tetB positive E. coli in the treated pigs than the controls. Conclusion: Although avilamycin selects for resistance in the native enterococci population of the pig, no resistant isolates were detected beyond 1 week post-treatment. This suggests that resistant isolates were unable to persist once selective pressure was removed and were out-competed by the sensitive microflora. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our data suggest the risk of resistant isolates becoming carcass contaminants and infecting humans could be minimized by introducing a withdrawal period after using avilamycin and prior to slaughter.