Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

The role of simulation in intertemporal choices

One route to understanding the thoughts and feelings of others is by mentally putting one's self in their shoes and seeing the world from their perspective, i.e., by simulation. Simulation is potentially used not only for inferring how others feel, but also for predicting how we ourselves will feel in the future. For instance, one might judge the worth of a future reward by simulating how much it will eventually be enjoyed. In intertemporal choices between smaller immediate and larger delayed rewards, it is observed that as the length of delay increases, delayed rewards lose subjective value; a phenomenon known as temporal discounting. In this article, we develop a theoretical framework for the proposition that simulation mechanisms involved in empathizing with others also underlie intertemporal choices. This framework yields a testable psychological account of temporal discounting based on simulation. Such an account, if experimentally validated, could have important implications for how simulation mechanisms are investigated, and makes predictions about special populations characterized by putative deficits in simulating others.

Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition

With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop / weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modelling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of So Paulo, Brazil

This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

SURFACE ALFVEN WAVE DAMPING IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATION OF THE SOLAR WIND

Here we investigate the contribution of surface Alfven wave damping to the heating of the solar wind in minima conditions. These waves are present in the regions of strong inhomogeneities in density or magnetic field (e.g., the border between open and closed magnetic field lines). Using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model, we calculate the surface Alfven wave damping contribution between 1 and 4 R(circle dot) (solar radii), the region of interest for both acceleration and coronal heating. We consider waves with frequencies lower than those that are damped in the chromosphere and on the order of those dominating the heliosphere: 3 x 10(-6) to 10(-1) Hz. In the region between open and closed field lines, within a few R(circle dot) of the surface, no other major source of damping has been suggested for the low frequency waves we consider here. This work is the first to study surface Alfven waves in a 3D environment without assuming a priori a geometry of field lines or magnetic and density profiles. We demonstrate that projection effects from the plane of the sky to 3D are significant in the calculation of field line expansion. We determine that waves with frequencies >2.8 x 10(-4) Hz are damped between 1 and 4 R(circle dot). In quiet-Sun regions, surface Alfven waves are damped at further distances compared to active regions, thus carrying additional wave energy into the corona. We compare the surface Alfven wave contribution to the heating by a variable polytropic index and find it as an order of magnitude larger than needed for quiet-Sun regions. For active regions, the contribution to the heating is 20%. As it has been argued that a variable gamma acts as turbulence, our results indicate that surface Alfven wave damping is comparable to turbulence in the lower corona. This damping mechanism should be included self-consistently as an energy driver for the wind in global MHD models.

Numerical simulation of the liquid phase in SnO(2) thin film deposition by sol-gel-dip-coating

The fluid flow of the liquid phase in the sol-gel-dip-coating process for SnO(2) thin film deposition is numerically simulated. This calculation yields useful information on the velocity distribution close to the substrate, where the film is deposited. The fluid modeling is done by assuming Newtonian behavior, since the linear relation between shear stress and velocity gradient is observed. Besides, very low viscosities are used. The fluid governing equations are the Navier-Stokes in the two dimensional form, discretized by the finite difference technique. Results of optical transmittance and X-ray diffraction on films obtained from colloidal suspensions with regular viscosity, confirm the substrate base as the thickest part of the film, as inferred from the numerical simulation. In addition, as the viscosity increases, the fluid acquires more uniform velocity distribution close to the substrate, leading to more homogenous and uniform films.

Triple- and quadruple-escape peaks in HPGe detectors: Experimental observation and Monte Carlo simulation

The triple- and quadruple-escape peaks of 6.128 MeV photons from the (19)F(p,alpha gamma)(16)O nuclear reaction were observed in an HPGe detector. The experimental peak areas, measured in spectra projected with a restriction function that allows quantitative comparison of data from different multiplicities, are in reasonably good agreement with those predicted by Monte Carlo simulations done with the general-purpose radiation-transport code PENELOPE. The behaviour of the escape intensities was simulated for some gamma-ray energies and detector dimensions; the results obtained can be extended to other energies using an empirical function and statistical properties related to the phenomenon. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Time Efficient Optical Model for GATE Simulation of a LYSO Scintillation Matrix Used in PET Applications

A time efficient optical model is proposed for GATE simulation of a LYSO scintillation matrix coupled to a photomultiplier. The purpose is to avoid the excessively long computation time when activating the optical processes in GATE. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by comparing the simulated and experimental energy spectra obtained with the dual planar head equipment for dosimetry with a positron emission tomograph ( DoPET). The procedure to apply the model is divided in two steps. Firstly, a simplified simulation of a single crystal element of DoPET is used to fit an analytic function that models the optical attenuation inside the crystal. In a second step, the model is employed to calculate the influence of this attenuation in the energy registered by the tomograph. The use of the proposed optical model is around three orders of magnitude faster than a GATE simulation with optical processes enabled. A good agreement was found between the experimental and simulated data using the optical model. The results indicate that optical interactions inside the crystal elements play an important role on the energy resolution and induce a considerable degradation of the spectra information acquired by DoPET. Finally, the same approach employed by the proposed optical model could be useful to simulate a scintillation matrix coupled to a photomultiplier using single or dual readout scheme.