Millstone Hill电离层F层等效风场的气候学研究

Neutral winds and electric fields in the ionospheric F layer play important roles in the variations of the ionosphere, and also affect the thermospheric circulation via the close coupling between the ionosphere and the thermosphere. By now, the neutral winds and electric drifts are generally observed with ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPI) and incoherent scatter radars (ISR), rockets, and satellite-borne instrument. Based on the servo theory, the ionospheric equivalent winds, which include the information of both the neutral winds and electric fields, can be derived from these characteristic parameters observed by ionosondes. This indirect derivation has potential values in climatological researches and space weather forecast. With the data set of the incoherent scatter radar observations at Millstone Hill, USA, from 1976 to 2006, we statistically analyzed the climatological variations of the vertical component of the equivalent winds (VEWs) over Millstone Hill, which are derived from the ionospheric key parameters (the peak electron number density and peak height of the F2 layer, NmF2 and hmF2) on the basis of the servo theory, Liu's method, and measurements from the ion line-of-sight velocity as well. The main results of this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) The values of VEWs over Millstone Hill during nighttime are stronger than in the daytime, and the upward drift dominates most of the day. In 1993, Hagan found that the component of the neutral winds in the magnetic meridion in daytime is weaker than during nighttime under both solar maximum and minimum conditions; he also found that the equatorward winds dominate most of the day. Both results suggest that the thermosphere in Millstone Hill is modulated by the aurorally driven high-latitude circulation cell; that is, during geomagnetic quiet periods, the average auroral activity is strong enough to drive thermospheric circulation equatorward for most of the day at Millstone Hill. Moreover, since ion drag is the strongest during daytime when F region densities are enhanced by photoionization, the wind speeds are smaller during the daytime than in the nighttime. (2) There is equinoctial symmetry in VEWs at Millstone Hill. The amplitudes and phases of VEWs in spring are quite similar to those in autumn. In contrast, the nighttime upward drift in winter is weaker than in summer and the difference becomes more significant with increasing solar activity. This solstice asymmetry indicates that, the aurorally driven circulation in the northern hemisphere at Millstone Hill latitude is weaker in winter due to arctic darkness, because the subsolar point is in the southern hemisphere. (3) The comparison of the VEWs derived from three methods, i.e., the servo theory, Liu's method, and the ISR ion line-of-sight velocity measurements, indicates that the amplitudes and main phase tendencies of these VEWs accord well with each other during nighttime hours. However, the case in the daytime is relatively worse. This daytime discrepancy can be explained in terms of the effects of photochemical processes and the choices of the servo constants. A larger servo constant gives a stronger plasma drift in daytime. Therefore, this study tells how important to choose a suitable constant for deriving VEWs at Millstone Hill.

Experimental velocity measurements and effect of flow maldistribution on predicted permeator performances

The shell-side flow distribution of a parallel flow hollow-fiber gas permeator was characterized using a thermo-anemograph. The permeator has an internal diameter of 103 mm and contains 21000 fibers. The overall fiber packing fraction is 40.1%. Experimental results revealed that shell-side flow maldistributions exist in the operating conditions studied. The gas-flow velocity is the highest at the permeator center, but lowest near the shell wall. The effects of shell-side flow maldistribution on predicted permeator performances are discussed with a simple model. Model calculation results show that flow maldistributions can have considerable effect on permeation systems with relatively high separation factors and stage cuts. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

A velocity map ion-imaging study on ketene photodissociation at 208 and 213 nm: Rotational dependence of product angular anisotropy

Photodissociation dynamics of ketene following excitation at 208.59 and 213.24 nm have been investigated using the velocity map ion-imaging method. Both the angular distribution and translational energy distribution of the CO products at different rotational and vibrational states have been obtained. No significant difference in the translational energy distributions for different CO rotational state products has been observed at both excitation wavelengths. The anisotropy parameter beta is, however, noticeably different for different CO rotational state products at both excitation wavelengths. For lower rotational states of the CO product, beta is smaller than zero, while beta is larger than zero for CO at higher rotational states. The observed rotational dependence of angular anisotropy is interpreted as the dynamical influence of a peculiar conical intersection between the B-1(1) excited state and (1)A(2) state along the C-S-I coordinate.

Formatação de dados usando a ferramenta Velocity.

Origem e características; Arquitetura. Funcionamento e esquema de uso. Linguagem VTL. Aplicação Java. Configuração da Velocity. Trecho de código fonte Java exemplificando o uso da ferramenta Velocity. Trecho de template em VTL relativo ao item anterior.

Dynamic soil–structure interaction of monopile supported wind turbines in cohesive soil.

Offshore wind turbines supported on monopile foundations are dynamically sensitive because the overall natural frequencies of these structures are close to the different forcing frequencies imposed upon them. The structures are designed for an intended life of 25 to 30 years, but little is known about their long term behaviour. To study their long term behaviour, a series of laboratory tests were conducted in which a scaled model wind turbine supported on a monopile in kaolin clay was subjected to between 32,000 and 172,000 cycles of horizontal loading and the changes in natural frequency and damping of the model were monitored. The experimental results are presented using a non-dimensional framework based on an interpretation of the governing mechanics. The change in natural frequency was found to be strongly dependent on the shear strain level in the soil next to the pile. Practical guidance for choosing the diameter of monopile is suggested based on element test results using the concept of volumetric threshold shear strain.

Vegetation and Topographic Control of Wind-blown Snow Distributions in Distributed and Aggregated Simulations for an Arctic Tundra Basin

Essery, RLH & JW, Pomeroy, (2004). Vegetation and topographic control of wind-blown snow distributions in distributed and aggregated simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, 735-744.

Transition region, coronal heating and the fast solar wind

Li, Xing, 'Transition region, coronal heating and the fast solar wind', Astronomy and Astrophysics (2003) 406 pp.345-356 RAE2008

Large-scale structure of the fast solar wind

Breen, Andrew; Bisi, M.M.; Fallows, R.A.; Habbal, S.R., (2007) 'Large-scale structure of the fast solar wind', Journal of Geophysical Research 112(A6) pp.A06101 RAE2008

Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Feasibility of combined wind-wave energy platforms

The European Union has set out an ambitious 20% target for renewable energy use by 2020. It is expected that this will be met mainly by wind energy. Looking towards 2050, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% are to be sought. Given the issues securing this target in the transport and agriculture sectors, it may only be possible to achieve this target if the power sector is carbon neutral well in advance of 2050. This has permitted the vast expansion of offshore renewables, wind, wave and tidal energy. Offshore wind has undergone rapid development in recent years however faces significant challenges up to 2020 to ensure commercial viability without the need for government subsidies. Wave energy is still in the very early stages of development so as yet there has been no commercial roll out. As both of these technologies are to face similar challenges in ensuring they are a viable alternative power generation method to fossil fuels, capitalising on the synergies is potentially a significant cost saving initiative. The advent of hybrid solutions in a variety of configurations is the subject of this thesis. A singular wind-wave energy platform embodies all the attributes of a hybrid system, including sharing space, transmission infrastructure, O&M activities and a platform/foundation. This configuration is the subject of this thesis, and it is found that an OWC Array platform with multi-MegaWatt wind turbines is a technically feasible, and potentially an economically feasible solution in the long term. Methods of design and analysis adopted in this thesis include numerical and physical modelling of power performance, structural analysis, fabrication cost modelling, simplified project economic modelling and time domain reliability modelling of a 210MW hybrid farm. The application of these design and analysis methods has resulted in a hybrid solution capable of producing energy at a cost between €0.22/kWh and €0.31/kWh depending on the source of funding for the project. Further optimisation through detailed design is expected to lower this further. This thesis develops new and existing methods of design and analysis of wind and wave energy devices. This streamlines the process of early stage development, while adhering to the widely adopted Concept Development Protocol, to develop a technically and economically feasible, combined wind-wave energy hybrid solution.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Cost savings from relaxation of operational constraints on a power system with high wind penetration

Wind energy is predominantly a nonsynchronous generation source. Large-scale integration of wind generation with existing electricity systems, therefore, presents challenges in maintaining system frequency stability and local voltage stability. Transmission system operators have implemented system operational constraints (SOCs) in order to maintain stability with high wind generation, but imposition of these constraints results in higher operating costs. A mixed integer programming tool was used to simulate generator dispatch in order to assess the impact of various SOCs on generation costs. Interleaved day-ahead scheduling and real-time dispatch models were developed to allow accurate representation of forced outages and wind forecast errors, and were applied to the proposed Irish power system of 2020 with a wind penetration of 32%. Savings of at least 7.8% in generation costs and reductions in wind curtailment of 50% were identified when the most influential SOCs were relaxed. The results also illustrate the need to relax local SOCs together with the system-wide nonsynchronous penetration limit SOC, as savings from increasing the nonsynchronous limit beyond 70% were restricted without relaxation of local SOCs. The methodology and results allow for quantification of the costs of SOCs, allowing the optimal upgrade path for generation and transmission infrastructure to be determined.

Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.