Multinodal Load Forecasting in Power Electric Systems using a Neural Network with Radial Basis Function

In this paper we present the results of the use of a methodology for multinodal load forecasting through an artificial neural network-type Multilayer Perceptron, making use of radial basis functions as activation function and the Backpropagation algorithm, as an algorithm to train the network. This methodology allows you to make the prediction at various points in power system, considering different types of consumers (residential, commercial, industrial) of the electric grid, is applied to the problem short-term electric load forecasting (24 hours ahead). We use a database (Centralised Dataset - CDS) provided by the Electricity Commission de New Zealand to this work.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Microscopic origin of non-Gaussian distributions of financial returns

In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The aggregation process in tetraethoxysilane-derived sonogels as an analogy to the critical phenomenon

The structural evolution in silica sols prepared from tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) sonohydrolysis was studied 'in situ' using small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS). The structure of the gelling system can be reasonably well described by a correlation function given by gamma(r) similar to (1/R(2))(1/r) exp(- r/xi), where xi is the structure correlation length and R is a chain persistence length, as an analogy to the Ornstein-Zernike theory in describing critical phenomenon. This approach is also expected for the scattering from some linear and branched molecules as polydisperse coils of linear chains and random f-functional branched polycondensates. The characteristic length. grows following an approximate power law with time t as xi similar to t(1) (with the exponent quite close to 1) while R remains undetermined but with a constant value, except at the beginning of the process in which the growth of. is slower and R increases by only about 15% with respect to the value of the initial sol. The structural evolution with time is compatible with an aggregation process by a phase separation by coarsening. The mechanism of growth seems to be faster than those typically observed for pure diffusion controlled cluster-cluster aggregation. This suggests that physical forces (hydrothermal forces) could be actuating together with diffusion in the gelling process of this system. The data apparently do not support a spinodal decomposition mechanism, at least when starting from the initial stable acid sol studied here.

Low power laser radiation at 685 nm stimulates stem-cell proliferation rate in Dugesia tigrina during regeneration

Today's scientific interest in tissue engineering for organ transplantations and regeneration from stem cells, allied with recent observations on biostimulation of tissues and cells by laser radiation, stands as a strong motivation for the present work, in which we examine the effects of the low power laser radiation onto planarians under regenerative process. To investigate those effects, a number of 60 amputated worms were divided in three study groups: a control group and two other groups submitted to daily 1 and 3 min long laser treatment sections at similar to 910 W/m(2) power density. A 685 nm diode laser with 35 mW optical power was used. Samples were sent to histological analysis at the 4th, the 7th and the 15th (lays after amputation. A remarkable increase in stem cells counts for the fourth day of regeneration was observed when the regenerating worms was stimulated by the laser radiation. Our findings encourage further research works on the influence of optical radiation onto stem cells and tissue regeneration. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The generator coordinate Hartree-Fock method as strategy for building Gaussian basis sets to ab initio study of the process of adsorption of sulfur on platinum (200) surface

The scheme named generator coordinate Hartree-Fock method (GCHF) is used to build (22s14p) and (33s22p16d9f) gaussian basis sets to S ((3)P) and Pt ((3)D) atoms, respectively. Theses basis sets are contracted to [13s10p] and [19s13p9d5f] through of Dunning's segmented contraction scheme and are enriched with d and g polarization functions, [13s10p1d] and [19s13p9d5flg]. Finally, the [19s13p9d5f1g] basis Set to Pt ((3)D) was supplemented with s and d diffuse functions, [20s13p10d5flg], and used in combination with [13s10p1d] to study the effects of adsorption of S ((3)D) atom on a pt ((3)D) atom belonged to infinite Pt (200) surface. Atom-atom overlap population, bond order, and infrared spectrum of [pt(_)S](2 -) were calculated properties and were carried out at Hartree-Fock-Roothaan level. The results indicate that the process of adsorption of S ((3)P) on pt ((3)D) in the infinite Pt (200) surface is mainly caused by a strong contribution of sigma between the 3p(z) orbital of S ((3)P) and the 6s orbital of pt ((3)D). (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Power-law distribution in a learning process: competition, learning and natural selection

In the present work, we propose a model for the statistical distribution of people versus number of steps acquired by them in a learning process, based on competition, learning and natural selection. We consider that learning ability is normally distributed. We found that the number of people versus step acquired by them in a learning process is given through a power law. As competition, learning and selection is also at the core of all economical and social systems, we consider that power-law scaling is a quantitative description of this process in social systems. This gives an alternative thinking in holistic properties of complex systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In Situ and Simultaneous UV-vis/SAXS and UV-vis/XAFS Time-Resolved Monitoring of ZnO Quantum Dots Formation and Growth

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Oviposition pattern and within-season spatial and temporal variation of pre-dispersal seed predation in a population of Mimosa bimucronata trees

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

The gradually truncated Lévy flight: Stochastic process for complex systems

Power-law distributions, i.e. Levy flights have been observed in various economical, biological, and physical systems in high-frequency regime. These distributions can be successfully explained via gradually truncated Levy flight (GTLF). In general, these systems converge to a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. In the present work, we develop a model for the physical basis for the cut-off length in GTLF and its variation with respect to the time interval between successive observations. We observe that GTLF automatically approach a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. We applied the present method to analyze time series in some physical and financial systems. The agreement between the experimental results and theoretical curves is excellent. The present method can be applied to analyze time series in a variety of fields, which in turn provide a basis for the development of further microscopic models for the system. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Consumer behavior after the Brazilian power rationing in 2001

In June 2001, after a dry period, the level of the water reservoirs in Brazil was below their operational levels. This situation, combined with other historical factors, led the country into a period of power rationing. As expected, power consumption lowered during this period. After December 2001, when the power rationing ended, electrical utilities expected to return to their normal power consumption in a matter of months, but the level of power consumption only returned to its level around years 2004 2005. Consumer behavior went through a change during this period, and the consumers kept this behavior after, leading to electrical and economical consequences until today. This paper presents an analysis of several factors that led to these events, including historical consumption data and comparisons with similar situations. The objective of this analysis is to give helpful information to electrical utilities, that could deal with similar situations, in their load forecasting studies. © 2006 IEEE.

The Canny detector with edge region focusing using an anisotropic diffusion process

This paper proposes a methodology for edge detection in digital images using the Canny detector, but associated with a priori edge structure focusing by a nonlinear anisotropic diffusion via the partial differential equation (PDE). This strategy aims at minimizing the effect of the well-known duality of the Canny detector, under which is not possible to simultaneously enhance the insensitivity to image noise and the localization precision of detected edges. The process of anisotropic diffusion via thePDE is used to a priori focus the edge structure due to its notable characteristic in selectively smoothing the image, leaving the homogeneous regions strongly smoothed and mainly preserving the physical edges, i.e., those that are actually related to objects presented in the image. The solution for the mentioned duality consists in applying the Canny detector to a fine gaussian scale but only along the edge regions focused by the process of anisotropic diffusion via the PDE. The results have shown that the method is appropriate for applications involving automatic feature extraction, since it allowed the high-precision localization of thinned edges, which are usually related to objects present in the image. © Nauka/Interperiodica 2006.

A neural approach to evaluate the effect of lightning in power transformers

This paper proposes the application of computational intelligence techniques to assist complex problems concerning lightning in transformers. In order to estimate the currents related to lightning in a transformer, a neural tool is presented. ATP has generated the training vectors. The input variables used in Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were the wave front time, the wave tail time, the voltage variation rate and the output variable is the maximum current in the secondary of the transformer. These parameters can define the behavior and severity of lightning. Based on these concepts and from the results obtained, it can be verified that the overvoltages at the secondary of transformer are also affected by the discharge waveform in a similar way to the primary side. By using the tool developed, the high voltage process in the distribution transformers can be mapped and estimated with more precision aiding the transformer project process, minimizing empirics and evaluation errors, and contributing to minimize the failure rate of transformers. © 2009 The Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved.

Proposals for improvement of methodology and process of collecting and analyzing compatibility of power quality indicators in distribution systems

This article aims to present proposals for improvement of key standards and resolutions concerned about the methodology for calculating the indicator of total harmonic voltage distortion, and should contribute to the process of examining the compatibility of potentially disturbing loads in electric power quality in distribution systems. These proposals were drawn from the analysis of results from measurement campaigns conducted in a case study including analysis of the connection of a new induction furnace in a foundry served by a distributor of São Paulo state. A general historical situating the quality of electric energy in the electricity sector is presented, and methodological guidelines and procedures used in experimental trials are shown. The analysis and discussion of results are prepared to answer the main questions that arise during the implementation of standards, resolutions and procedures. © 2011 IEEE.