Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

National Physical Activity Plan for Ireland

There is strong evidence to support the multiple benefits of physical activity to health and wellbeing. It promotes healthy growth and development in children and young people. It contributes to cognitive function. It is important for healthy ageing and helps to maintain quality of life and independence when we grow older. It is also a preventative factor for many non-communicable diseases. This Plan focuses on different types of actions, some immediate and some more long-term and sustainable solutions, which recognise that behaviour change is complex, challenging and takes time. This does not merely focus on overcoming deficits but concentrates on solutions and strengths and reshaping the environment for physical activity.    

Black and Blue: Exploring Racial Bias and Law Enforcement in the Killings of Unarmed Black Male Civilians

In late 2014, a series of highly publicized police killings of unarmed Black male civilians in the United States prompted large-scale social turmoil. In the current review, we dissect the psychological antecedents of these killings and explain how the nature of police work may attract officers with distinct characteristics that may make them especially well-primed for negative interactions with Black male civilians. We use media reports to contextualize the precipitating events of the social unrest as we ground our explanations in theory and empirical research from social psychology and industrial and organizational (I/O) psychology. To isolate some of the key mechanisms at play, we disentangle racial bias (e.g., stereotyping processes) from common characteristics of law enforcement agents (e.g., social dominance orientation), while also addressing the interaction between racial bias and policing. By separating the moving parts of the phenomenon, we provide a more fine-grained analysis of the factors that may have contributed to the killings. In doing so, we endeavor to more effectively identify and develop solutions to eradicate excessive use of force during interactions between “Black” (unarmed Black male civilians) and “Blue” (law enforcement).

Beyond the Acronyms: Sport Diplomacy and the Classification of the International Olympic Committee

Diplomacy often finds itself reduced to actions centred on states. However, after the Cold War, international relations and diplomacy have expanded with different actors growing into significant roles, particularly in the increase of diplomatic relations in the context of sport. The classification and significance of other actors remains under-researched in relation to sport, with literature focusing more on the growth of new and varying practices of diplomacy. This analysis contends that there is a need to interrogate fundamental components of modern diplomacy—with the actor being the focus—more specifically the classification of sports organisations in diplomacy. It is relevant as a more accurate understanding of sports organisations will contribute to how diplomatic studies can analyse and evaluate modern diplomacy within the context of sport. The International Olympic Committee is the actor used to illustrate how problematic classifications currently in the academic literature translate into weak and reduced analysis and evaluation of its role and significance in diplomacy. As counterpoint, this analysis proposes an analytical framework of socio-legal theory that harnesses legal regulation as a benchmark to classify an actor’s capacity within a society. In consequence, the IOC is as an active and significant contributor to the ever expanding and complex diplomatic environment and wider society.

Avaliação breve do défice executivo em pessoas idosas com Acidente Vascular Cerebral: Validação da Bateria de Avaliação Frontal

RESUMO Objetivos: O Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) potencia o desenvolvimento de disfunção executiva, conduzindo a défice no desempenho das tarefas do quotidiano. A avaliação neuropsicológica das funções executivas é importante para desenvolver estratégias de reabilitação adequadas. Assim, são objetivos descrever os dados normativos, precisão de diagnóstico, propriedades psicométricas e análise fatorial da Bateria de Avaliação Frontal (FAB), instrumento breve e de rápida administração, numa amostra de idosos com AVC. Métodos: Inserida no projeto Trajetórias do Envelhecimento de Idosos em Resposta Social, esta investigação conta com uma amostra de 112 pessoas idosas com diagnóstico médico de AVC e 157 pessoas idosas de um subgrupo de controlo sem AVC. Os sujeitos apresentam idades compreendidas entre os 60 e os 100 anos (M = 78,20; DP = 7,57) sendo maioritariamente do sexo feminino (n = 194). A avaliação inclui entrevistas e testes neuropsicológicos agrupados em medidas de funcionamento executivo, medidas cognitivas de referência e medidas clínicas de controlo. Resultados: As variáveis idade e escolaridade interferiram nas pontuações obtidas na amostra clínica, não sendo verificado impacto da variável sexo. Para um ponto de corte de 7, a FAB teve uma sensibilidade de 83,4% e especificidade de 66,1 % (AUC = 0,64); revelou um alfa de Cronbach de 0,79 e correlações fortes com os testes executivos (teste de Stroop, Figura Complexa de Rey, fator Atencional-Executivo do Montreal Cognitive Assessment e Alternância nos testes de Fluência verbal). A análise fatorial confirmatória apontou uma estrutura com um fator. Conclusões: A FAB apresenta boa consistência interna, validade convergente e validade de constructo, aparentando ser uma escala útil para avaliar o défice executivo em pessoas idosas com AVC. Dadas algumas limitações do estudo, que poderão explicar a fraca precisão diagnóstica da FAB, são incentivadas investigações futuras pois a FAB revelou-se um instrumento com propriedades psicométricas promissoras. ABSTRACT Goals: Stroke potentiates the development of executive dysfunction, leading to impairment in performance of daily activities. The neuropsychological assessment of executive functions is important to develop adequate rehabilitation strategies. Thus, describing the normative data, diagnostic accuracy, psychometric properties and factor analysis of the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), a brief and easy to administer instrument, in a clinical sample with stroke are objectives of this study. Methods: Being part of the Aging Trajectories of Institutionalized Elderly, this research has a sample 112 elderly people with a medical diagnosis of stroke and a control subgroup of 157 elderly people. The subjects have ages between 60 and 100 years old (M = 78.20, SD = 7.57), mostly females (n = 194). The measurements used include interviews and neuropsychological tests grouped in executive functioning measures, cognitive measures of reference and clinical measures of control. Results: The variables age and education affect the scores obtained in the clinical subgroup, having the variable gender no impact on these. Using a cutoff score of 7, the FAB had a sensitivity of 83.4% and a specificity of 66.1% for screening stroke (AUC = 0.64); showed a Cronbach's α of 0.79, and strong correlations with executive tests (Stroop test, Rey Complex Figure, Attentional-Executive factor of Montreal Cognitive Assessment and Switching in the verbal fluency tests). The confirmatory factor analysis supported a one-factor structure. Conclusions: The FAB presents good internal consistency, convergent, and construct when used for elderly with stroke. Due to some limitations of the study, which may explain the weak discriminant validity, further investigations are encouraged because FAB has showed promising psychometric properties.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Spanish monarchy and the Portuguese Republic: two routes to democratization

From 1974 to 1986 the Iberian Peninsula was the arena of major political changes. The process then undertaken was characterized by the transition from two Iberian authoritarian regimes to two democracies, which enabled both countries to join the European Economic Community (EEC) on 1 January 1986. However, the political vicissitudes until full membership of what became the European Union (EU) was achieved were very different and were decisively, although not exclusively, influenced by the fact Portugal was a republic and Spain a monarchy. In Portugal the 1974 revolution took place with consequent shift of the head of state while in Spain the engine of change was precisely the head of state: King Juan Carlos I. It is also true that despite the dangers to democracy (terrorism in Spain and some radicalism in Portugal) both societies supported the political parties committed to the democratic process in elections, which helped avoid tensions that could have defeated the process. Likewise, it is possible to argue that in Spain a plan to achieve democracy within the rule of law (an archetypal transition) was designed by the head of state, while in Portugal there was no pre-established plan – the programme of the Armed Forces Movement (Movimento das Forças Armadas [MFA]) was a weak and precarious compromise between different visions of the road to follow, enabling an intense political struggle that almost led to civil war and a dangerous state of crisis.

Strategic Management of Resources for International Business Operations in Small Consulting Firms - People, Processes and Tools in Managing International operations

Research on strategic management of resources for small consulting firms which are international or planning to operate internationally is scarce or not existing at all. It is however important to start generating the theories that will support managers in their decision making and planning. This thesis investigates how do small management consulting firms manage their internal and external resources while operating in international markets. Throughout the study, aspects related to internal and external resources management as well as management strategies in these firms have been examined in relations to firm’s internationalisation activities. A qualitative analysis was carried out whereby four small consulting firms in Export Management Consulting, Integration Services Consulting-, Software Development Consulting- and Business Solutions Consulting companies were interviewed. In order to generate the holistic understanding of the study, the thesis writer selected Value Enhanced Collaborative Working (VECW) model as an analysis framework. The model focuses on people, processes and tools as key elements that small consulting firms consider when thinking about managing their international operations. The findings of the thesis reveal that, internal and external resources in the interviewed consulting firms are viewed similarly, but managed differently depending on the nature and size of the firm. Firm’s management strategies concentrate on the adequate utilisation of the employees' motivation and experiences, effective stakeholders' management, various administrative evaluation processes and tools, the ability to realise useful networks, constant improvement through employee trainings, employees and customers’ feedbacks as well as enhanced freedom in order to support employees’ creativity. Further research to examine functional administrative tools and tools that small consulting firms could use to assess their resource capabilities when planning to become international would benefit the smaller businesses in terms of resources management and certainty in planning.

Some causes of unreliability of fishery statistics on the African great lakes and possible ways of bettering the statistics

This paper is based on a two year's intensive statistical data collection survey on Lake Kyoga, observations made on Lake Victoria over the last decade occasional visits on Lake Albert (Mobutu) and Lake Malawi. World over, scientists have kept doubting the fisheries statistical figures presented by various African countries. Some countries fail to present any figures. This paper, therefore, narrates most of the causes and possible solutions to those problems.

Essays on Information Frictions, Prices and Unemployment

I investigate the effects of information frictions in price setting decisions. I show that firms' output prices and wages are less sensitive to aggregate economic conditions when firms and workers cannot perfectly understand (or know) the aggregate state of the economy. Prices and wages respond with a lag to aggregate innovations because agents learn slowly about those changes, and this delayed adjustment in prices makes output and unemployment more sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I show that workers' noisy information about the state of the economy help us to explain why real wages are sluggish. In the context of a search and matching model, wages do not immediately respond to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, and it makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. This mechanism is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: the flexibility of wages for new hires and the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of the overall unemployment volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks predicted by my model is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study the role of information frictions and inventories in firms' price setting decisions in the context of a monetary model. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters.

Immunogenicity of Outer Membrane Proteins VirB9-1 and VirB9-2, a Novel Nanovaccine against Anaplasma marginale

Anaplasma marginale is the most prevalent tick-borne livestock pathogen and poses a significant threat to cattle industry. In contrast to currently available live blood-derived vaccines against A. marginale, alternative safer and better-defined subunit vaccines will be of great significance. Two proteins (VirB9-1 and VirB9-2) from the Type IV secretion system of A. marginale have been shown to induce humoral and cellular immunity. In this study, Escherichia coli were used to express VirB9-1 and VirB9-2 proteins. Silica vesicles having a thin wall of 6 nm and pore size of 5.8 nm were used as the carrier and adjuvant to deliver these two antigens both as individual or mixed nano-formulations. High loading capacity was achieved for both proteins, and the mouse immunisation trial with individual as well as mixed nano-formulations showed high levels of antibody titres over 107 and strong T-cell responses. The mixed nano-formulation also stimulated high-level recall responses in bovine T-cell proliferation assays. These results open a promising path towards the development of efficient A. marginale vaccines and provide better understanding on the role of silica vesicles to deliver multivalent vaccines as mixed nano-formulations able to activate both B-cell and T-cell immunity, for improved animal health.

Bumps and rings in a two-dimensional neural field: splitting and rotational instabilities

In this paper we consider instabilities of localised solutions in planar neural field firing rate models of Wilson-Cowan or Amari type. Importantly we show that angular perturbations can destabilise spatially localised solutions. For a scalar model with Heaviside firing rate function we calculate symmetric one-bump and ring solutions explicitly and use an Evans function approach to predict the point of instability and the shapes of the dominant growing modes. Our predictions are shown to be in excellent agreement with direct numerical simulations. Moreover, beyond the instability our simulations demonstrate the emergence of multi-bump and labyrinthine patterns. With the addition of spike-frequency adaptation, numerical simulations of the resulting vector model show that it is possible for structures without rotational symmetry, and in particular multi-bumps, to undergo an instability to a rotating wave. We use a general argument, valid for smooth firing rate functions, to establish the conditions necessary to generate such a rotational instability. Numerical continuation of the rotating wave is used to quantify the emergent angular velocity as a bifurcation parameter is varied. Wave stability is found via the numerical evaluation of an associated eigenvalue problem.

Transmission Easement and Adverse Possession of Transmission Easement in the Polish Law

The object of analysis in the text are the issues concerned with the transmission easement and the adverse possession thereof on the grounds of the Polish law. The text features: (1) a historical outline of the solutions concerned with easements in the Polish law following 1945, (2) the institution of transmission easement introduced in 2008 and the solutions concerned with the claims for the establishment thereof at court, (3) the institution of adverse possession of transmission easement pursuant to civil law regulations, judicature and the legal doctrine. On account of the need to elaborate the wide-ranging legal issues concerned with the transmission easement in this text, the analysis embraces two research questions giving rise to the following conclusions: (1) What function is performed by the institution of transmission easement in the system of civil-law relations in the Polish law? The legislator in the articles introducing a transmission easement ossified the solutions functioning in the judicature of the Polish courts before 2008. The legal interpretation took a turn for clarification, that is for the establishment of a norm in the situation where its comprehension was dubious. It is noteworthy that in the period prior to 2008, the law provided for easement appurtenant, and on account of the usual course of judicial decisions also for easement appurtenant with the content corresponding to transmission easement. In 2008 these two “legal existences” were supplemented with a transmission easement, which nevertheless failed to resolve all the legal problems; nay, this gave rise to even more problems, e.g. the one of non-establishment of interpolar norms which would address the issues arising in connection with the use of various easement institutions in legal transactions. While amending the civil law, the legislator aimed to bring order to legal transactions by streamlining the unregulated actual state of easement in relation to transmission infrastructure, but also in relation to the situations where an easement was yet to be established and a facility yet to be constructed. Thus, such action is intended to regulate the disorderly legislation in force as well as to safeguard investment processes. This is of particular significance, for example, for energy companies which are burdened with statutory public-law obligations as regards securing energy supplies and providing for the development of energy infrastructure. Hence, the de facto introduced civil-law solutions indirectly served to realise the principles of the doctrine of easement in the public interest. (2) What legal problems in the civil-law relations does the application of the institution of transmission easement by adverse possession entail? On account of the functioning of various institutions of easement, that is (1) an easement appurtenant, (2) an easement appurtenant with the content corresponding to a transmission easement, and as of 2008 (3) a transmission easement, a problem arose as to which of the given easements companies exercised in particular periods, all the more so because before 1989 the State Treasury owned them and many of the transmission facilities were put in place by virtue of administrative decisions. The commonly held belief is that in the period of “society-oriented economy” as well as up to 2008 infrastructure companies could exercise an easement appurtenant which corresponded to the content of a transmission easement. Therefore, in such a case the running of the prescriptive period should allow for the general rules laid down for an easement appurtenant. Apart from the problem of the relation of a capacity to exercise a right to property and the free development of civil-law relations before 1989, the recognition of the running of prescriptive periods – given the functioning of the three various easements as legal institutions – became a significant legal problem. By way of illustration, the recognition – against the period of exercising transmission easement – of the period required for the acquisition thereof by adverse possession, whereby before 3 August 2008 the real estate featured the legal state corresponding to the content of this right, is debatable. One cannot recognise that within that period a transmission easement was exercised, because such a right was not in existence as yet. Therefore, the institution that might be employed is the running of the period as regards the adverse possession in relation to an easement appurtenant with the content of a transmission easement. Still, the problem remains as to whether the period of the exercise of the easement appurtenant with the content corresponding to a transmission easement can be recognised against the period of possession required for the adverse possession of a transmission easement pursuant to the regulations introduced in 2008. One might incline to the position whereby in such a case it would be right to fully recognise – against the period of exercising a transmission easement – the period of exercising an easement appurtenant corresponding thereto in respect of its content. That being so, the adverse possession of a transmission easement might ensue in such a situation on 3 August 2008 at the earliest, that is the moment the regulations governing this right come into effect. Conversely, if the prescriptive period expires before that date, the entrepreneur would acquire an easement appurtenant with the content corresponding to the transmission easement. Such an interpretation is aligned with the purpose intended by the legislator, which is to bring order to the actual state of the broadest scope with the aid of a new legal instrument. The text, while analysing the issue of a transmission easement and an adverse possession thereof as a institution of the civil law, presents only some selected problems. Hence, the analysis does not include, for example, the issues concerned with claims for remuneration (for usufruct without contractual basis or usufruct fees), or claims for compensation (redress or amends). Furthermore, the text does not conduct a more profound analysis of the relation between the provisions regulating public-law relations (e.g. acts of law introducing the institution of dispossession) and the provisions regulating civil-law relations (the easements in question).