On Selection of Features for Regional Hydrologic Studies

Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

An approach to multi-temporal MODIS image analysis using image classification and segmentation

This paper discusses an approach for river mapping and flood evaluation based on multi-temporal time series analysis of satellite images utilizing pixel spectral information for image classification and region-based segmentation for extracting water-covered regions. Analysis of MODIS satellite images is applied in three stages: before flood, during flood and after flood. Water regions are extracted from the MODIS images using image classification (based on spectral information) and image segmentation (based on spatial information). Multi-temporal MODIS images from ``normal'' (non-flood) and flood time-periods are processed in two steps. In the first step, image classifiers such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) separate the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral features. The classified image is then segmented using spatial features of the water pixels to remove the misclassified water. From the results obtained, we evaluate the performance of the method and conclude that the use of image classification (SVM and ANN) and region-based image segmentation is an accurate and reliable approach for the extraction of water-covered regions. (c) 2012 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Physically Based, Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products

The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km2 watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid-structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain-gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization for the Management of Groundwater Resources

Ground management problems are typically solved by the simulation-optimization approach where complex numerical models are used to simulate the groundwater flow and/or contamination transport. These numerical models take a lot of time to solve the management problems and hence become computationally expensive. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) models were developed and coupled for the management of groundwater of Dore river basin in France. The Analytic Element Method (AEM) based flow model was developed and used to generate the dataset for the training and testing of the ANN model. This developed ANN-PSO model was applied to minimize the pumping cost of the wells, including cost of the pipe line. The discharge and location of the pumping wells were taken as the decision variable and the ANN-PSO model was applied to find out the optimal location of the wells. The results of the ANN-PSO model are found similar to the results obtained by AEM-PSO model. The results show that the ANN model can reduce the computational burden significantly as it is able to analyze different scenarios, and the ANN-PSO model is capable of identifying the optimal location of wells efficiently.

Urban water supply and management

Population growth and rapid urbanization lead to considerable stress on already depleting water resources. A great challenge for water authorities of urban cities is to supply adequate and reliable safe water to all consumers. In most of the developing countries water scarcity and high demands have led the water authorities to resort to intermittent supplies. Surface and groundwater are the major sources of supply in urban cities. The direct consequences of intermittent supplies and poor sanitation practices are several incidences of water borne diseases posing public health risk. In order to minimize the supply-demand gap and to assure good quality of water, new techniques or models can be helpful to manage the water distribution systems (WDS) in a better way. In the present paper, a review is carried out on the existing urban water supply management methodologies with a way forward for the proper management of the water supply systems.

Relation Between the Diffusivity, Viscosity, and Ionic Radius of LiCl in Water, Methanol, and Ethylene Glycol: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation

A molecular dynamics (MD) investigation of LiCl in water, methanol, and ethylene glycol (EG) at 298 K is reported. Several; structural and dynamical properties of the ions as well as the solvent such as self-diffusivity, radial distribution functions, void and neck distributions, velocity autocorrelation functions, and mean residence times of solvent in the first solvation shell have been computed. The results show that the reciprocal relationship between the self-diffusivity of the ions and the viscosity is valid in almost all solvents with the exception of water. From an analysis of radial distribution functions and coordination numbers the nature of hydrogen bonding within the solvent and its influence on the void and neck distribution becomes evident. It is seen that the solvent solvent interaction is important in EG while solute solvent interactions dominate in water and methanol. From Voronoi tessellation, it is seen that the voids and necks within methanol are larger as compared to those within water or EG. On the basis of the void and neck distributions obtained from MD simulations and literature experimental data of limiting ion conductivity for various ions of different sizes we show that there is a relation between the void and neck radius on e one hand and dependence of conductivity on the ionic radius on the other. It is shown that the presence of large diameter voids and necks in methanol is responsible for maximum in limiting ion conductivity (lambda(0)) of TMA(+), while in water in EG, the maximum is seen for Rb+. In the case of monovalent anions, maximum in lambda(0) as a function ionic radius is seen for Br- in water EG but for the larger ClO4- ion in methanol. The relation between the void and neck distribution and the variation in lambda(0) with ionic radius arises via the Levitation effect which is discussed. These studies show the importance of the solvent structure and the associated void structure.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Structural Investigations on the Compositional Anomalies in Lanthanum Zirconate System Synthesized by Coprecipitation Method

The study set out to investigate the compositional inconsistency in lanthanum zirconate system revealed the presence of nonstoichiometry in lanthanum zirconate powders when synthesized by coprecipitation route. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) investigations confirmed the depletion of La3+ ions in the system. Analysis using Vegard's law showed the La/Zr mole ratio in the sample to be around 0.45. An extra step of ultrasonication, introduced during the washing stage followed by the coprecipitation reaction, ensured the formation of stoichiometric La2Zr2O7. Noteworthy is also the difference between crystal sizes in the samples prepared by with and without ultrasonication step. This difference has been explained in light of the formation of individual nuclei and their scope of growth within the precipitate core. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analyses revealed that optimum pH for the synthesis of La2Zr2O7 is about 11. The ultrasonication step was pivotal in assuring consistency in mixing and composition for the lanthanum zirconate powders.

Multi-Temporal Satellite Image Analysis Using Gene Expression Programming

This paper discusses an approach for river mapping and flood evaluation to aid multi-temporal time series analysis of satellite images utilizing pixel spectral information for image classification and region-based segmentation to extract water covered region. Analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images is applied in two stages: before flood and during flood. For these images the extraction of water region utilizes spectral information for image classification and spatial information for image segmentation. Multi-temporal MODIS images from ``normal'' (non-flood) and flood time-periods are processed in two steps. In the first step, image classifiers such as artificial neural networks and gene expression programming to separate the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral features. The classified image is then segmented using spatial features of the water pixels to remove the misclassified water region. From the results obtained, we evaluate the performance of the method and conclude that the use of image classification and region-based segmentation is an accurate and reliable for the extraction of water-covered region.

An open source massively parallel solver for Richards equation: Mechanistic modelling of water fluxes at the watershed scale

In this paper we present a massively parallel open source solver for Richards equation, named the RichardsFOAM solver. This solver has been developed in the framework of the open source generalist computational fluid dynamics tool box OpenFOAM (R) and is capable to deal with large scale problems in both space and time. The source code for RichardsFOAM may be downloaded from the CPC program library website. It exhibits good parallel performances (up to similar to 90% parallel efficiency with 1024 processors both in strong and weak scaling), and the conditions required for obtaining such performances are analysed and discussed. These performances enable the mechanistic modelling of water fluxes at the scale of experimental watersheds (up to few square kilometres of surface area), and on time scales of decades to a century. Such a solver can be useful in various applications, such as environmental engineering for long term transport of pollutants in soils, water engineering for assessing the impact of land settlement on water resources, or in the study of weathering processes on the watersheds. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Estimation of `drainable' storage - A geomorphological approach

Storage of water within a river basin is often estimated by analyzing recession flow curves as it cannot be `instantly' estimated with the aid of available technologies. In this study we explicitly deal with the issue of estimation of `drainable' storage, which is equal to the area under the `complete' recession flow curve (i.e. a discharge vs. time curve where discharge continuously decreases till it approaches zero). But a major challenge in this regard is that recession curves are rarely `complete' due to short inter-storm time intervals. Therefore, it is essential to analyze and model recession flows meaningfully. We adopt the wellknown Brutsaert and Nieber analytical method that expresses time derivative of discharge (dQ/dt) as a power law function of Q : -dQ/dt = kQ(alpha). However, the problem with dQ/dt-Q analysis is that it is not suitable for late recession flows. Traditional studies often compute alpha considering early recession flows and assume that its value is constant for the whole recession event. But this approach gives unrealistic results when alpha >= 2, a common case. We address this issue here by using the recently proposed geomorphological recession flow model (GRFM) that exploits the dynamics of active drainage networks. According to the model, alpha is close to 2 for early recession flows and 0 for late recession flows. We then derive a simple expression for drainable storage in terms the power law coefficient k, obtained by considering early recession flows only, and basin area. Using 121 complete recession curves from 27 USGS basins we show that predicted drainable storage matches well with observed drainable storage, indicating that the model can also reliably estimate drainable storage for `incomplete' recession events to address many challenges related to water resources. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.