Using Baseline Methods to Identify Non-technical Losses in the Context of Smart Grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers’ performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data.

High prevalence and association of HIV-1 non-B subtype with specific sexual transmission risk among antiretroviral naïve patients in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

In South Brazil the circulation of two HIV-1 subtypes with different characteristics represents an important scenario for the study of the impact of HIV-1 diversity on the evolution of the HIV-1 epidemic and AIDS disease. HIV-1 B, the predominant variant in industrialized countries and HIV-1 C, the most prevalent subtype in areas with rapid epidemic growth, are implicated in most infections. We evaluated blood samples from 128 antiretroviral (ARV) naïve patients recruited at entry to the largest HIV outpatient service in Porto Alegre. Based on partial pol region sequencing, HIV-1 C was observed in 29%, HIV-1 B in 22.6% and, the recently identified CRF31_BC, in 23.4% of 128 volunteers. Other variants were HIV-1 F in 10% and other mosaics in 5.5%. In order to evaluate the association of socio-behavioral characteristics and HIV-1 subtypes, interviews and laboratory evaluation were performed at entry. Our data suggest an established epidemic of the three major variants, without any evidence of partitioning in either of the subgroups analyzed. However, anal sex practices were associated with subtype B, which could indicate a greater transmissibility of non-B variants by vaginal intercourse. This study provides baseline information for epidemiologic surveillance of the changes of the molecular characteristics of HIV-1 epidemics in this region.

Long-Term Evaluation of Recurrence after Photodynamic Therapy with Topical Methyl Aminolevulinate for Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer: a Hospital-Based Study

Introduction & Objectives: Several factors may influence the decision to pursue nonsurgical modalities for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a non-invasive alternative treatment reported to have a high efficacy when using standardized protocols in Bowen’s disease (BD), superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and in thin nodular BCC. However, long-term recurrence studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of PDT with topical methylaminolevulinate (MAL) for the treatment of BD and BCC in a dermato-oncology department. Materials & Methods: All patients with the diagnosis of BD or BCC, treated with MAL-PDT from the years 2004 to 2008, were enrolled. Treatment protocol included two MAL-PDT sessions one week apart repeated at three months when incomplete response, using a red light dose of 37-40 J/cm2 and an exposure time of 8’20’’. Clinical records were retrospectively reviewed, and data regarding age, sex, tumour location, size, treatment outcomes and recurrence were registered. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi square tests, followed by survival analysis with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-eight patients (median age 71.0 years, P25;P75=30;92) with a total of 78 tumours (31 BD, 45 superficial BCC, 2 nodular BCC) and a median tumour size of 5 cm2 were treated. Overall, the median follow-up period was 43.5 months (P25;P75=0;100), and a total recurrence rate of 33.8% was observed (24.4 % for BCC vs. 45.2% for BD). Estimated recurrence rates for BCC and BD were 5.0% vs. 7.4% at 6 months, 23.4% vs. 27.9% at 12 months, and 30.0% vs. 72.4% at 60 months. Both age and diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence, with significantly higher estimated recurrence rates in patients with BD (p=0.0036) or younger than 58 years old (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence (hazard ratio) was 2.4 times higher in patients with BD compared to superficial BCC (95% CI:1.1-5.3; p=0.033), and 2.8 times higher in patients younger than 58 years old (95% CI:1.2-6.5; p=0.02). Conclusions: In the studied population, estimated recurrence rates are higher than those expected from available literature, possibly due to a longer follow-up period. To the authors’ knowledge there is only one other study with a similar follow-up period, regarding BCC solely. BD, as an in situ squamous cell carcinoma, has a higher tendency to recur than superficial BCC. Despite greater cosmesis, PDT might no be the best treatment option for young patients considering their higher risk of recurrence.

Assessing the efficacy of the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) training for non-specialized health workers in Ethiopia

RESUMO: A OMS lançou em 2008, o Programa de Acção do Gap em Saúde Mental (mhGAP) para suprir a falta de cuidados, especialmente em países de rendimento baixo e médio, para as pessoas que sofrem de perturbações mentais, neurológicas e de uso de substâncias (MNS). Um componente crucial do mhGAP é representado pelo esforço no sentido da integração da saúde mental nos cuidados de saúde primários. Na Etiópia, o mhGAP foi monitorizado durante 3 anos, graças a um projeto de demonstração implementado em clínicas selecionadas em quatro regiões do país. A fase de demonstração de mhGAP na Etiópia traduziu-se principalmente na formação de profissionais de saúde não especializados, fornecendo-lhes orientação e supervisão apoiada para a utilização de medicamentos psicotrópicos essenciais e na coordenação com o Ministério Etíope Federal da Saúde, Hospital Amanuel de Saúde Mental e as Secretarias Regionais de Saúde ( RHBs ). O presente trabalho investigou a eficácia do pacote de formação mhGAP através de uma análise das pontuações dos participantes no pré- e pós-testes. A análise estatística mostrou - com uma exceção - que a melhoria dos formandos é estatisticamente significativa, o que sugere que os conhecimentos dos participantes é melhorada na fase de pós-teste. A eficácia do pacote de formação mhGAP para profissionais de saúde não especializados é uma evidência promissora de que os mesmos podem ser treinados com sucesso para realizar um pacote básico de intervenções para a prestação de cuidados e tratamento para pessoas com perturbações mentais, neurológicas e de uso de substâncias. Este trabalho destaca, também, várias limitações não apenas inerentes ao próprio projecto de investigação tais como o número limitado de respostas que foram analisadas e a falta de dados de uma das quatro regiões onde mhGAP foi testado na Etiópia. As principais limitações decorrem de facto da abordagem global limitar as intervenções de saúde mental ao programa de formação e supervisão dos trabalhadores de cuidados de saúde primários . Este processo só será bem sucedido se, juntamente com outras intervenções - que vão desde o desenvolvimento de currículos para o desenvolvimento de uma legislação de saúde mental -, fôr incluído numa estratégia mais abrangente para a reforma da saúde mental e desafiar o status quo.-----------ABSTRACT:In 2008, WHO launched the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) to address the lack of care, especially in low- and middle- income countries, for people living with mental, neurological and substance use (MNS) disorders. A crucial component of mhGAP is represented by the endeavor towards integration of mental health into primary health care. In Ethiopia, mhGAP has been piloted for 3 years thanks to a demonstration project implemented in selected clinics in 4 regions of the country. The demonstration phase of mhGAP in Ethiopia has mainly translated into training of non-specialized health workers, providing them with mentorship and supportive supervision, availing essential psychotropic medications and coordinating with the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health, Amanuel Mental Health Hospital and the Regional Health Bureaus (RHBs). The present paper investigated the efficacy of the mhGAP training package through an analysis of the participants’ scores at pre-test and post-test. The statistical analysis showed - with one exception - that the improvement of trainees is statistically significant, therefore suggesting that the knowledge of participants is improved in the post-test phase. The efficacy of the mhGAP training package on non-specialized health workers is promising evidence that non-specialized health-care providers can be successfully trained to deliver a basic package of interventions for providing care and treatment for people with mental, neurological and substance use disorders. However, this paper also highlights several limitations, which are not only inherent to the research itself, such as the limited number of scores that was analyzed, or the lack of data from one of the four regions where mhGAP has been piloted in Ethiopia; major limitations occur in fact in the overall approach of confining mental health interventions to training and supervising primary health care workers. This process will only be successful if coupled with other interventions – ranging from curricula development to development of a mental health legislation - and if it is included in a more comprehensive strategy to reform mental health and challenge the status quo.

Molecular characterization of rabies virus isolated from non-haematophagous bats in Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Rabies is an important zoonosis that causes thousands of deaths worldwide each year. Although the terrestrial cycle, mainly transmitted by dogs, is controlled in Brazil, the aerial cycle remains a serious public health issue, besides the economic problem. In the aerial cycle, the haematophagous bat Desmodus rotundus is the main source of infection, where several different species of non-haematophagous bats can be infected and can transmit the virus. METHODS: The aim of this work was to study the epidemiological pattern of rabies using antigenic characterization with monoclonal antibodies and genetic characterization by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction followed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of non-haematophagous bats' and herbivorous animals' central nervous system samples from the western region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. RESULTS: From 27 samples, 3 antigenic variants were identified: AgV-3, AgV-4, and AgV-6; and from 29 samples, 5 different clusters were identified, all belonging to the rabies virus species. CONCLUSIONS: Although only non-haematophagous bats were evaluated in the studied region, the majority of samples were from antigenic and genetic variants related to haematophagous bats Desmodus rotundus. Samples from the same antigenic variant were segregated in more than one genetic cluster. This study demonstrated the diversity of rabies virus genetic lineages presented and circulating in non-haematophagous bats in the studied region.

Circulation of the rabies virus in non-hematophagous bats in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2001-2010

INTRODUCTION: Rabies is one of the most known lethal zoonosis, responsible for 55,000 human deaths per year. It is transmitted to humans mainly by the bite of domestic or wild animals infected with the virus. This paper shows the circulation of this virus in non-hematophagous bats in the City of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: A survey was performed on the number of bats that had been sent for diagnosis by the Seção de Virologia of the Instituto Municipal de Medicina Veterinária Jorge Vaitsman and were positive for rabies. The positive animals were identified, and the isolated viruses were sent for antigenic typification with indirect immunofluorescence. The results were compared with the antigenic panel of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: During 2001-2010, the laboratory received 555 non-hematophagous bats for rabies diagnosis, with 198 (35.7%) from Rio de Janeiro City. A total of 11 (5.5%) animals were positive for this disease. Antigenic typification revealed the predominance of variant 3 in 9 (81.8%) of the isolated viruses; 1 virus was classified as variant 4 and 1 variant was identified that segregated with the viruses in insectivorous bats. CONCLUSIONS: The data obtained in this study showed the presence of the rabies virus in synanthropic populations of non-hematophagous bats in the City of Rio de Janeiro. The circulation of this agent in these animals represents a serious risk to human and animal health and requires attention and control measures by the authorities.

Insurance segmentation as unfair discrimination: what to expect next in the wake of Test-Achats

Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference organized by the Insurance Law Association of Serbia and German Foundation for International Legal Co-Operation (IRZ), entitled "Insurance law, governance and transparency: basics of the legal certainty" Palic Serbia, 17-19 April 2015.

Factors associated with non-adherence to the treatment of vivax malaria in a rural community from the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Abstract: INTRODUCTION We investigated the association between demographic and behavioral factors and non-adherence to antimalarial therapy. METHODS A demographic questionnaire and 5-item self-reported questionnaire regarding non-adherence were completed by 135 patients after treatment for Plasmodium vivax. RESULTS Treatment interruption, but not demographic factors, was significantly associated with non-adherence to therapy. The likelihood of non-adherence was 5.16 times higher when the patients felt better than when they felt worse. The relative risk of parasitic resurgence was 3.04 times higher in non-adherent patients. CONCLUSIONS Treatment interruption is significantly associated with treatment adherence.

Creation of an Age-Adjusted, Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry-Derived Trabecular Bone Score Curve for the Lumbar Spine in Non-Hispanic US White Women.

The trabecular bone score (TBS, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture texture extracted from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry images of the spine. Previous studies have documented the ability of TBS of the spine to differentiate between women with and without fractures among age- and areal bone mineral density (aBMD)-matched controls, as well as to predict future fractures. In this cross-sectional analysis of data collected from 3 geographically dispersed facilities in the United States, we investigated age-related changes in the microarchitecture of lumbar vertebrae as assessed by TBS in a cohort of non-Hispanic US white American women. All subjects were 30 yr of age and older and had an L1-L4aBMDZ-score within ±2 SD of the population mean. Individuals were excluded if they had fractures, were on any osteoporosis treatment, or had any illness that would be expected to impact bone metabolism. All data were extracted from Prodigy dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry devices (GE-Lunar, Madison, WI). Cross-calibrations between the 3 participating centers were performed for TBS and aBMD. aBMD and TBS were evaluated for spine L1-L4 but also for all other possible vertebral combinations. To validate the cohort, a comparison between the aBMD normative data of our cohort and US non-Hispanic white Lunar data provided by the manufacturer was performed. A database of 619 non-Hispanic US white women, ages 30-90 yr, was created. aBMD normative data obtained from this cohort were not statistically different from the non-Hispanic US white Lunar normative data provided by the manufacturer (p = 0.30). This outcome thereby indirectly validates our cohort. TBS values at L1-L4 were weakly inversely correlated with body mass index (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.16) and not correlated with height. TBS values for all lumbar vertebral combinations decreased significantly with age. There was a linear decrease of 16.0% (-2.47 T-score) in TBS at L1-L4 between 45 and 90 yr of age (vs. -2.34 for aBMD). Microarchitectural loss rate increased after age 65 by 50% (-0.004 to -0.006). Similar results were obtained for other combinations of lumbar vertebra. TBS, an index of bone microarchitectural texture, decreases with advancing age in non-Hispanic US white women. Little change in TBS is observed between ages 30 and 45. Thereafter, a progressive decrease is observed with advancing age. The changes we observed in these American women are similar to that previously reported for a French population of white women (r(2) > 0.99). This reference database will facilitate the use of TBS to assess bone microarchitectural deterioration in clinical practice.

Opposite effect of counterions on the persistence length of nicked and non-nicked DNA.

Using cryo-electron microscopy we reconstructed the three-dimensional trajectories adopted in cryovitrified solutions by double-stranded DNA molecules in which the backbone of one strand lacked a phosphate at regular intervals of 20 nucleotides. The shape of such nicked DNA molecules was compared with that of DNA molecules with exactly the same sequence but without any single-stranded scissions. Upon changing the salt concentration we observed opposite effects of charge neutralization on nicked and non-nicked DNA. In low salt solutions (10 mM Tris-HCl, 10 mM NaCl) the applied dense nicking caused ca 3.5-fold reduction of the DNA persistence length as compared with non-nicked DNA. Upon increasing the salt concentration (to 150 mM NaCl and 10 mM MgCl2) the persistence length of non-nicked DNA appreciably decreased while that of nicked DNA molecules increased by a factor of 2.

Pathology and first report of natural infections of the eye trematode Philophthalmus lachrymosus Braun, 1902 (Digenea, Philophthalmidae) in a non-human mammalian host

The avian eye trematode Philophthalmus lachrymosus Braun, 1902 is for the first time referred naturally occurring in a non-human mammalian host. Previously, natural infections with P. lachrymosus and other species of Philophthalmus have been occasionally reported from man, with few data on experimental infections of non-human mammals. Results presented here are related to the report of two cases of philophthalmosis due to natural infections of wild Brazilian capybaras, Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris L., 1766 with P. lachrymosus and associated pathology. Clinical signs, gross and microscopic lesions as well as new morphometric data on the parasite are presented.

Immunological and non-immunological effects of cytokines and chemokines in the pathogenesis of chronic Chagas disease cardiomyopathy

The pathogenesis of Chagas disease cardiomyopathy (CCC) is not well understood. Since studies show that myocarditis is more frequent during the advanced stages of the disease, and the prognosis of CCC is worse than that of other dilated cardiomyopathies of non-inflammatory aetiology, which suggest that the inflammatory infiltrate plays a major role in myocardial damage. In the last decade, increasing evidence has shown that inflammatory cytokines and chemokines play a role in the generation of the inflammatory infiltrate and tissue damage. CCC patients have an increased peripheral production of the inflammatory Th1 cytokines IFN-³ and TNF-± when compared to patients with the asymptomatic/indeterminate form. Moreover, Th1-T cells are the main producers of IFN-³ and TNF-± and are frequently found in CCC myocardial inflammatory infiltrate. Over the past several years, our group has collected evidence that shows several cytokines and chemokines produced in the CCC myocardium may also have a non-immunological pathogenic effect via modulation of gene and protein expression in cardiomyocytes and other myocardial cell types. Furthermore, genetic polymorphisms of cytokine, chemokine and innate immune response genes have been associated with disease progression. We will review the molecular and immunological mechanisms of myocardial damage in human CCC in light of recent findings.

Intérêt de l'angiographie numérisée au vert d'indocyanine dans le diagnostic différentiel des tumeurs non pigmentées de la choroïde [Value of indocyanine green videoangiography in differential diagnosis of nonpigmented tumors of the choroid]

BACKGROUND: Indocyanine green video-angiography (ICG) is a recent examination technique, its possibilities and limitations as far as intraocular tumours are concerned, haven't been fully explored yet. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We have studied 50 cases of non-pigmented choroidal tumours, including 14 cases of choroidal hemangioma's, 11 cases of posterior uveal metastases and 25 cases of non-pigmented melanoma's. RESULTS: Characteristic images were obtained when examining choroidal hemangioma's and, until a certain point, posterior choroidal metastases. Non pigmented melanoma's on the contrary, presented a great variety of different indocyanine green angiographic pictures. CONCLUSION: Indocyanine green video-angiography (ICG) has a definite value in the differential diagnosis of non-pigmented posterior choroidal tumours.

Constraints and non-existence of rational expectations equilibria

In this article we show that in the presence of trading constraints, such as short sale constraints, the standard definition of a Rational Expectations Equilibrium allows for equilibrium prices that reveal information unknown to any active trader in the market. We propose a new definition of the Rational Expectations Equilibrium that incorporates a stronger measurability condition than measurability with respect to the join of the information sets of the agents and give an example of non-existence of equilibrium. The example is robust to perturbations on the data of the economy and the introduction of new assets.

Management control in non-profit organizations: The case of the Associations of Economists in Spain

The number of non-profit organizations has grown considerably over thelast decades, however management control techniques are not being introducedwith the same frequency as in lucrative organizations. The increasedcompetition in this sector has created a growing interest in managementcontrol techniques but with little empirical research in the area. Withthe aim to throw some light over the uses of management control inprofessional associations we have focused in the associations foreconomists in Spain as a particular case of a non-lucrative body.Specifically, the paper comprises three surveys addressed to the followingsectors:1) To the 30 Spanish associations of economists.2) To associations related to the business and/or economics area operatingin the United Kingdom.3) To members of the association of economists in Catalonia (Col.legid'Economistes de Catalunya).Results indicate that management accounting tools are used exceptionally,many times only the minimum legal requirements. The critical situation ofthe associations of economists in Spain requires the implementation ofinformation systems, specially taking into account the differentspecialities of economists and offering to its members, services and productsthat are not available through profit organizations.