Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Low levels of human leukocyte antigen donor-specific antibodies detected by solid phase assay before transplantation are frequently clinically irrelevant.

Since new technologies based on solid phase assays (SPA) have been routinely incorporated in the transplant immunology laboratory, the presence of pretransplantation donor-specific antibodies (DSA) against human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules has generally been considered as a risk factor for acute rejection (AR) and, in particular, for acute humoral rejection (AHR). We retrospectively studied 113 kidney transplant recipients who had negative prospective T-cell and B-cell complement-dependent cytotoxicity (CDC) crossmatches at the time of transplant. Pretransplantation sera were screened for the presence of circulating anti-HLA antibody and DSA by using highly sensitive and HLA-specific Luminex assay, and the results were correlated with AR and AHR posttransplantation. We found that approximately half of our patient population (55/113, 48.7%) had circulating anti-HLA antibody pretransplantation. Of 113 patients, 11 (9.7%) had HLA-DSA. Of 11 rejection episodes post-transplant, only two patients had pretransplantation DSA, of whom one had a severe AHR (C4d positive). One-year allograft survival was similar between the pretransplantation DSA-positive and -negative groups. Number, class, and intensity of pretransplantation DSA, as well as presensitizing events, could not predict AR. We conclude that, based on the presence of pretransplantation DSA, post-transplantation acute rejections episodes could not have been predicted. The only AHR episode occurred in a recipient with pretransplantation DSA. More work should be performed to better delineate the precise clinical significance of detecting low titers of DSA before transplantation.

Clinical trial substantiates the predictive value of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation in glioblastoma patients treated with temozolomide.

PURPOSE: In the setting of a prospective clinical trial, we determined the predictive value of the methylation status of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter for outcome in glioblastoma patients treated with the alkylating agent temozolomide. Expression of this excision repair enzyme has been associated with resistance to alkylating chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The methylation status of MGMT in the tumor biopsies was evaluated in 38 patients undergoing resection for newly diagnosed glioblastoma and enrolled in a Phase II trial testing concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide and radiation. The epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene was determined using methylation-specific PCR. RESULTS: Inactivation of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation was associated with longer survival (P = 0.0051; Log-rank test). At 18 months, survival was 62% (16 of 26) for patients testing positive for a methylated MGMT promoter but reached only 8% (1 of 12) in absence of methylation (P = 0.002; Fisher's exact test). In the presence of other clinically relevant factors, methylation of the MGMT promoter remains the only significant predictor (P = 0.017; Cox regression). CONCLUSIONS: This prospective clinical trial identifies MGMT-methylation status as an independent predictor for glioblastoma patients treated with a methylating agent. The association of the epigenetic inactivation of the DNA repair gene MGMT with better outcome in this homogenous cohort may have important implications for the design of future trials and supports efforts to deplete MGMT by O-6-benzylguanine, a noncytotoxic substrate of this enzyme.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

Psychometric evaluation of the IWQOL-Lite (Spanish version) when applied to a sample of obese patients awaiting bariatric surgery

Background Obesity may have an impact on key aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). In this context, the Impact of Weight Quality of Life (IWQOL) questionnaire was the first scale designed to assess HRQOL. The aim of the present study was twofold: to assess HRQOL in a sample of Spanish patients awaiting bariatric surgery and to determine the psychometric properties of the IWQOL-Lite and its sensitivity to detect differences in HRQOL across groups. Methods Participants were 109 obese adult patients (BMI¿ 35 kg/m2) from Barcelona, to whom the following measurement instruments were applied: IWQOL-Lite, Depression Anxiety Stress Scales, Brief Symptom Inventory, and self-perception items. Results Descriptive data regarding the IWQOL-Lite scores obtained by these patients are reported. Principal components analysis revealed a five-factor model accounting for 72.05% of the total variance, with factor loadings being adequate for all items. Corrected itemtotal correlations were acceptable for all items. Cronbach"s alpha coefficients were excellent both for the subscales (0.880.93) and the total scale (0.95). The relationship between the IWQOLLite and other variables supports the construct validity of the scale. Finally, sensitivity analysis revealed large effect sizes when comparing scores obtained by extreme BMI groups. Conclusions This is the first study to report the application of the IWQOL-Lite to a sample of Spanish patients awaiting bariatric surgery and to confirm that the Spanish version of the instrument has adequate psychometric properties.

Association of major and minor ECG abnormalities with coronary heart disease events.

CONTEXT: In populations of older adults, prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events through traditional risk factors is less accurate than in middle-aged adults. Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common in older adults and might be of value for CHD prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline ECG abnormalities or development of new and persistent ECG abnormalities are associated with increased CHD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based study of 2192 white and black older adults aged 70 to 79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (Health ABC Study) without known cardiovascular disease. Adjudicated CHD events were collected over 8 years between 1997-1998 and 2006-2007. Baseline and 4-year ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota Code as major and minor. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the addition of ECG abnormalities to traditional risk factors were examined to predict CHD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adjudicated CHD events (acute myocardial infarction [MI], CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization). RESULTS: At baseline, 276 participants (13%) had minor and 506 (23%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 351 participants had CHD events (96 CHD deaths, 101 acute MIs, and 154 hospitalizations for angina or coronary revascularizations). Both baseline minor and major ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of CHD after adjustment for traditional risk factors (17.2 per 1000 person-years among those with no abnormalities; 29.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81; for minor abnormalities; and 31.6 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.20-1.90; for major abnormalities). When ECG abnormalities were added to a model containing traditional risk factors alone, 13.6% of intermediate-risk participants with both major and minor ECG abnormalities were correctly reclassified (overall net reclassification improvement [NRI], 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.1%-19.0%; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.99%; 95% CI, 0.32%-2.15%). After 4 years, 208 participants had new and 416 had persistent abnormalities. Both new and persistent ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of subsequent CHD events (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.33-3.02; and HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.34; respectively). When added to the Framingham Risk Score, the NRI was not significant (5.7%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Major and minor ECG abnormalities among older adults were associated with an increased risk of CHD events. Depending on the model, adding ECG abnormalities was associated with improved risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Rationale and first results of developing at-risk (prodromal) criteria for bipolar disorder.

Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe, recurrent and disabling disorder with devastating consequences for individuals, families and society. Although these hazards and costs provide a compelling rationale for development of early detection and early intervention strategies in BD, the development of at-risk criteria for first episode mania is still in an early stage of development. In this paper we review the literature with respect to the clinical, neuroantomical and neuropsychological data, which support this goal. We also describe our recently developed bipolar at-risk criteria (BAR). This criteria comprises the peak age range of the first onset of bipolar disorder, genetic risk, presenting with sub-threshold mania, cyclothymic features or depressive symptoms. An initial pilot evaluation of the BAR criteria in 22 subjects indicated conversion rates to proxies of first-episode mania of 23% within 265 days on average, and high specificity and sensitivity of the criteria. If prospective studies confirm the validity of the BAR criteria, then the criteria would have the potential to open up new avenues of research for indicated prevention in BD and might therefore offer opportunities to ameliorate the severity of, or even prevent BD.

Selective in vivo visualization of immune-cell infiltration in a mouse model of autoimmune myocarditis by fluorine-19 cardiac magnetic resonance.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to characterize the performance of fluorine-19 ((19)F) cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for the specific detection of inflammatory cells in a mouse model of myocarditis. Intravenously administered perfluorocarbons are taken up by infiltrating inflammatory cells and can be detected by (19)F-CMR. (19)F-labeled cells should, therefore, generate an exclusive signal at the inflamed regions within the myocardium. METHODS AND RESULTS: Experimental autoimmune myocarditis was induced in BALB/c mice. After intravenous injection of 2×200 µL of a perfluorocarbon on day 19 and 20 (n=9) after immunization, in vivo (19)F-CMR was performed at the peak of myocardial inflammation (day 21). In 5 additional animals, perfluorocarbon combined with FITC (fluorescein isothiocyanate) was administered for postmortem immunofluorescence and flow-cytometry analyses. Control experiments were performed in 9 animals. In vivo (19)F-CMR detected myocardial inflammation in all experimental autoimmune myocarditis-positive animals. Its resolution was sufficient to identify even small inflammatory foci, that is, at the surface of the right ventricle. Postmortem immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry confirmed the presence of perfluorocarbon in macrophages, dendritic cells, and granulocytes, but not in lymphocytes. The myocardial volume of elevated (19)F signal (rs=0.96; P<0.001), the (19)F signal-to-noise ratio (rs=0.92; P<0.001), and the (19)F signal integral (rs=0.96; P<0.001) at day 21 correlated with the histological myocarditis severity score. CONCLUSIONS: In vivo (19)F-CMR was successfully used to visualize the inflammation specifically and robustly in experimental autoimmune myocarditis, and thus allowed for an unprecedented insight into the involvement of inflammatory cells in the disease process.

Value of positron emission tomography in full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies.

Preoperative imaging for resection of chest wall malignancies is generally performed by computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the role of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in planning full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies. We retrospectively included 18 consecutive patients operated from 2004 to 2006 at our institution. Tumor extent was measured by CT and PET, using the two largest perpendicular tumor extensions in the chest wall plane to compute the tumor surface assuming an elliptical shape. Imaging measurements were compared to histopathology assessment of tumor borders. CT assessment consistently overestimated the tumor size as compared to PET (+64% vs. +1%, P<0.001). Moreover, PET was significantly better than CT at defining the size of lesions >24 cm(2) corresponding to a mean diameter >5.5 cm or an ellipse of >4 cm x 7.6 cm (positive predictive value 80% vs. 44% and specificity 93% vs. 64%, respectively). Metabolic PET imaging was superior to CT for defining the extent of chest wall tumors, particularly for tumors with a diameter >5.5 cm. PET can complement CT in planning full-thickness chest wall resection for malignancies, but its true value remains to be determined in larger, prospective studies.

Dépistage de l'athérosclérose: point de la situation en 2006. [Screening for atherosclerosis: 2006 update].

In recent years, several screening tests for subclinical atherosclerosis have been developed. The aim of these tests is to be able to better target preventive therapies to patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, the validity of these screening tests has not been well established for wide use in clinical practice. Being aware of these tests results might also enhance patient motivation to change unhealthy behaviors, such as smoking. However, the effectiveness of such strategy has been poorly studied. Early therapy of atherosclerosis has not been shown to improve clinical outcomes yet. Moreover, potential harms of such screening, such as induced anxiety, have been poorly studied. Although promising, such screening should be validated by clinical trials before routine use in clinical practice.

A general linear relaxometry model of R1 using imaging data.

PURPOSE: The longitudinal relaxation rate (R1 ) measured in vivo depends on the local microstructural properties of the tissue, such as macromolecular, iron, and water content. Here, we use whole brain multiparametric in vivo data and a general linear relaxometry model to describe the dependence of R1 on these components. We explore a) the validity of having a single fixed set of model coefficients for the whole brain and b) the stability of the model coefficients in a large cohort. METHODS: Maps of magnetization transfer (MT) and effective transverse relaxation rate (R2 *) were used as surrogates for macromolecular and iron content, respectively. Spatial variations in these parameters reflected variations in underlying tissue microstructure. A linear model was applied to the whole brain, including gray/white matter and deep brain structures, to determine the global model coefficients. Synthetic R1 values were then calculated using these coefficients and compared with the measured R1 maps. RESULTS: The model's validity was demonstrated by correspondence between the synthetic and measured R1 values and by high stability of the model coefficients across a large cohort. CONCLUSION: A single set of global coefficients can be used to relate R1 , MT, and R2 * across the whole brain. Our population study demonstrates the robustness and stability of the model. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 The Authors. Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Magn Reson Med 73:1309-1314, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frictional Properties of Asphalt Concrete Pavements in Iowa, MLR-87-5, 1987

Friction testing of pavements has been a continuing effort by the Iowa Department of Transportation since 1969. This report details results of tests of asphaltic concrete pavements on the primary and interstate road systems. Both sprinkle treated and non-sprinkle treated pavements placed between 1975 - 1985 are included. A total of 1785 miles representing 216 separate paving projects were examined. The effect of fog sealing sprinkle treated pavements was studied by testing friction levels before and after the application of the fog seals. Conclusions of the report are: 1. Current aggregate selection criteria for a.c. pavement surface courses provides adequate friction levels through 10 years and should remain effective through a 15 year design life. 2. Sprinkle treatment of pavements has, for the most part, provided macrotexture in the pavement surface as evidenced by smooth tire testing. 3. Fog sealing sprinkle treated pavements does not significantly alter the friction properties.

Persistent association of nailfold capillaroscopy changes and skin involvement over thirty-six months with duration of untreated disease in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of changes on nailfold capillaroscopy with clinical findings and genotype in children with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM), in order to identify potential differences in disease course over 36 months. METHODS: At diagnosis of juvenile DM in 61 children prior to the initiation of treatment, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) -308 allele and DQA1*0501 status was determined, juvenile DM Disease Activity Scores (DAS) were obtained, and nailfold capillaroscopy was performed. The disease course was monitored for 36 months. Variations within and between patients were assessed by regression analysis. RESULTS: At diagnosis, shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.05) and a lower juvenile DM skin DAS (P = 0.035) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. Over 36 months, end-row loop (ERL) regeneration was associated with lower skin DAS (P &lt; 0.001) but not muscle DAS (P = 0.98); ERL regeneration and decreased bushy loops were associated with a shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.04 for both). At 36 months, increased ERL regeneration (P = 0.007) and improvement of skin DAS (P &lt; 0.001) and muscle DAS (P = 0.025) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. CONCLUSION: Early treatment of juvenile DM may lead to a unicyclic disease course. The non-unicyclic disease course usually involves continuing skin manifestations with persistent nailfold capillaroscopy changes. The correlation of nailfold capillaroscopy results with cutaneous but not with musculoskeletal signs of juvenile DM over a 36-month period suggests that the cutaneous and muscle vasculopathies have different pathophysiologic mechanisms. These findings indicate that efforts to identify the optimal treatment of cutaneous features in juvenile DM require greater attention.

Prospective association of the SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype with adverse health outcomes: evidence from 60+ community-dwelling Europeans living in 11 countries.

BACKGROUND: Among the many definitions of frailty, the frailty phenotype defined by Fried et al. is one of few constructs that has been repeatedly validated: first in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and subsequently in other large cohorts in the North America. In Europe, the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is a gold mine of individual, economic and health information that can provide insight into better understanding of frailty across diverse population settings. A recent adaptation of the original five CHS-frailty criteria was proposed to make use of SHARE data and measure frailty in the European population. To test the validity of the SHARE operationalized frailty phenotype, this study aims to evaluate its prospective association with adverse health outcomes. METHODS: Data are from 11,015 community-dwelling men and women aged 60+ participating in wave 1 and 2 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, a population-based survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the 2-year follow up effect of SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype on the incidence of disability (disability-free at baseline) and on worsening disability and morbidity, adjusting for age, sex, income and baseline morbidity and disability. RESULTS: At 2-year follow up, frail individuals were at increased risk for: developing mobility (OR 3.07, 95% CI, 1.02-9.36), IADL (OR 5.52, 95% CI, 3.76-8.10) and BADL (OR 5.13, 95% CI, 3.53-7.44) disability; worsening mobility (OR 2.94, 95% CI, 2.19- 3.93) IADL (OR 4.43, 95% CI, 3.19-6.15) and BADL disability (OR 4.53, 95% CI, 3.14-6.54); and worsening morbidity (OR 1.77, 95% CI, 1.35-2.32). These associations were significant even among the prefrail, but with a lower magnitude of effect. CONCLUSIONS: The SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype is significantly associated with all tested health outcomes independent of baseline morbidity and disability in community-dwelling men and women aged 60 and older living in Europe. The robustness of results validate the use of this phenotype in the SHARE survey for future research on frailty in Europe.

Hémorragie digestive haute: utilité des scores pronostiques [Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.