838 resultados para Uncertainty in Wind Energy
Resumo:
Aim: In this paper we discuss the use of the Precede-Proceed model when investigating health promotion options for breast cancer survivors. Background: Adherence to recommended health behaviors can optimize well-being after cancer treatment. Guided by the Precede-Proceed approach, we studied the behaviors of breast cancer survivors in our health service area. Data sources: The interview data from the cohort of breast cancer survivors are used in this paper to illustrate the use of Precede-Proceed in this nursing research context. Interview data were collected from June to December 2009. We also searched Medline, CINAHL, PsychInfo and PsychExtra up to 2010 for relevant literature in English to interrogate the data from other theoretical perspectives. Discussion: The Precede-Proceed model is theoretically-complex. The deductive analytic process guided by the model usefully explained some of the health behaviors of cancer survivors, although it could not explicate many other findings. A complementary inductive approach to the analysis and subsequent interpretation by way of Uncertainty in Illness Theory and other psychosocial perspectives provided a comprehensive account of the qualitative data that resulted in contextually-relevant recommendations for nursing practice. Implications for nursing: Nursing researchers using Precede-Proceed should maintain theoretical flexibility when interpreting qualitative data. Perspectives not embedded in the model might need to be considered to ensure that the data are analyzed in a contextually-relevant way. Conclusion: Precede-Proceed provides a robust framework for nursing researchers investigating health promotion in cancer survivors; however additional theoretical lenses to those embedded in the model can enhance data interpretation.
Resumo:
The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered as promising techniques in aeronautic/aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions, improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. The paper investigates the robust design and optimisation for one type of adaptive techniques; Active Flow Control (AFC) bump at transonic flow conditions on a Natural Laminar Flow (NLF) aerofoil designed to increase aerodynamic efficiency (especially high lift to drag ratio). The concept of using Shock Control Bump (SCB) is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of NLF aerofoil: RAE 5243 that leads to delaying shock occurrence or weakening its strength. Such AFC technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of Boundary Layer Transition (BLT) can influence the position the supersonic shock occurrence. The BLT position is an uncertainty in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. The paper studies the SCB shape design optimisation using robust Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) with uncertainty in BLT positions. The optimisation method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing and asynchronous evaluation. Two test cases are conducted; the first test assumes the BLT is at 45% of chord from the leading edge and the second test considers robust design optimisation for SCB at the variability of BLT positions and lift coefficient. Numerical result shows that the optimisation method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces Pareto optimal SCB shapes which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction.
Resumo:
Airports worldwide represent key forms of critical infrastructure in addition to serving as nodes in the international aviation network. While the continued operation of airports is critical to the functioning of reliable air passenger and freight transportation, these infrastructure systems face a number of sources of disturbance that threaten their operational viability. Recent examples of high magnitude events include the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Folattau and Schofield 2010), the failure of multiple systems at the opening of Heathrow’s Terminal 5 (Brady and Davies 2010) and the Glasgow airport 2007 terrorist attack (Crichton 2008). While these newsworthy events do occur, a multitude of lower-level more common disturbances also have the potential to cause significant discontinuity to airport operations. Regional airports face a unique set of challenges, particularly in a nation like Australia where they serve to link otherwise remote and isolated communities to metropolitan hubs (Wheeler 2005), often without the resources and political attention received by larger capital city airports. This paper discusses conceptual relationships between Business Continuity Management (BCM) and High Reliability Theory, and proposes BCM as an appropriate risk-based management process to ensure continued airport operation in the face of uncertainty. In addition, it argues that that correctly implemented BCM can lead to highly reliable organisations. This is framed within the broader context of critical infrastructures and the need for adequate crisis management approaches suited to their unique requirements (Boin and McConnell 2007).
Resumo:
Mixture models are a flexible tool for unsupervised clustering that have found popularity in a vast array of research areas. In studies of medicine, the use of mixtures holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of patient responses through the identification of clinically meaningful clusters that, given the complexity of many data sources, may otherwise by intangible. Furthermore, when developed in the Bayesian framework, mixture models provide a natural means for capturing and propagating uncertainty in different aspects of a clustering solution, arguably resulting in richer analyses of the population under study. This thesis aims to investigate the use of Bayesian mixture models in analysing varied and detailed sources of patient information collected in the study of complex disease. The first aim of this thesis is to showcase the flexibility of mixture models in modelling markedly different types of data. In particular, we examine three common variants on the mixture model, namely, finite mixtures, Dirichlet Process mixtures and hidden Markov models. Beyond the development and application of these models to different sources of data, this thesis also focuses on modelling different aspects relating to uncertainty in clustering. Examples of clustering uncertainty considered are uncertainty in a patient’s true cluster membership and accounting for uncertainty in the true number of clusters present. Finally, this thesis aims to address and propose solutions to the task of comparing clustering solutions, whether this be comparing patients or observations assigned to different subgroups or comparing clustering solutions over multiple datasets. To address these aims, we consider a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a complex and commonly diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder. In particular, two commonly collected sources of patient information are considered. The first source of data are on symptoms associated with PD, recorded using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and constitutes the first half of this thesis. The second half of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of microelectrode recordings collected during Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS), a popular palliative treatment for advanced PD. Analysis of this second source of data centers on the problems of unsupervised detection and sorting of action potentials or "spikes" in recordings of multiple cell activity, providing valuable information on real time neural activity in the brain.
Resumo:
Pipelines are important lifeline facilities spread over a large area and they generally encounter a range of seismic hazards and different soil conditions. The seismic response of a buried segmented pipe depends on various parameters such as the type of buried pipe material and joints, end restraint conditions, soil characteristics, burial depths, and earthquake ground motion, etc. This study highlights the effect of the variation of geotechnical properties of the surrounding soil on seismic response of a buried pipeline. The variations of the properties of the surrounding soil along the pipe are described by sampling them from predefined probability distribution. The soil-pipe interaction model is developed in OpenSEES. Nonlinear earthquake time-history analysis is performed to study the effect of soil parameters variability on the response of pipeline. Based on the results, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the pipeline.
Resumo:
Zero energy buildings (ZEB) and zero energy homes (ZEH) are a current hot topic globally for policy makers (what are the benefits and costs), designers (how do we design them), the construction industry (can we build them), marketing (will consumers buy them) and researchers (do they work and what are the implications). This paper presents initial findings from actual measured data from a 9 star (as built), off-ground detached family home constructed in south-east Queensland in 2008. The integrated systems approach to the design of the house is analysed in each of its three main goals: maximising the thermal performance of the building envelope, minimising energy demand whilst maintaining energy service levels, and implementing a multi-pronged low carbon approach to energy supply. The performance outcomes of each of these stages are evaluated against definitions of Net Zero Carbon / Net Zero Emissions (Site and Source) and Net Zero Energy (onsite generation vs primary energy imports). The paper will conclude with a summary of the multiple benefits of combining very high efficiency building envelopes with diverse energy management strategies: a robustness, resilience, affordability and autonomy not generally seen in housing.
Resumo:
Recently, a stream of project management research has recognized the critical role of boundary objects in the organization of projects. In this paper, we investigate how one advanced scheduling tool, the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), is used as a temporal boundary object at various stages of complex projects. The IMS is critical to megaprojects which typically span long periods of time and face a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. In this paper, we conceptualize projects of this type as complex adaptive systems (CAS). We report the findings of four case projects on how the IMS mapped interactions, interdependencies, constraints, and fractal patterns of these emerging projects, and how the process of IMS visualization enabled communication and negotiation of project realities. This paper highlights that this advanced timeline tool acts as a boundary object and elicits shared understanding of complex projects from their stakeholders.
Resumo:
Corals inhabit high energy environments where frequent disturbances result in physical damage to coralla, including fragmentation, as well as generating and mobilizing large sediment clasts. The branching growth form common in the Acropora genus makes it particularly susceptible to such disturbances and therefore useful for study of the fate of large sediment clasts. Living Acropora samples with natural, extraneous, broken coral branches incorporated on their living surface and dead Acropora skeletons containing embedded clasts of isolated branch sections of Acropora were observed and/or collected from the reef flat of Heron Reef, southern Great Barrier Reef and Bargara, Australia respectively. Here we report three different outcomes when pebble-sized coral branches became lodged on living coral colonies during sedimentation events in natural settings in Acropora: 1) Where live coral branches produced during a disturbance event come to rest on probable genetic clone-mate colonies they become rapidly stabilised leading to complete soft tissue and skeletal fusion; 2) Where the branch and underlying colony are not clone-mates, but may still be the same or similar species, the branches still may be stabilised rapidly by soft tissue, but then one species will overgrow the other; and 3) Where branches represent dead skeletal debris, they are treated like any foreign clast and are surrounded by clypeotheca and incorporated into the corallum by overgrowth. The retention of branch fragments on colonies in high energy reef flat settings may suggest an active role of coral polyps to recognise and fuse with each other. Also, in all cases the healing of disturbed tissue and subsequent skeletal growth is an adaptation important for protecting colonies from invasion by parasites and other benthos following disturbance events and may also serve to increase corallum strength. Knowledge of such adaptations is important in studies of coral behaviour during periods of environmental stress.
Resumo:
The 'variety effect' describes the greater consumption that is observed when multiple foods with different sensory characteristics are presented either simultaneously or sequentially. Variety increases the amount of food consumed in test of ad libitum intake. However, outside the laboratory, meals are often planned in advance and then consumed in their entirety. We sought to explore the extent to which the variety effect is anticipated in this pre-meal planning. Participants were shown two food images, each representing a first or a second course of a hypothetical meal. The two courses were either, i) exactly the same food, ii) different foods from the same sensory category (sweet or savoury) or, iii) different foods from a different sensory category. In Study 1 (N = 30) these courses comprised typical ‘main meal’ foods and in Study 2 (N = 30) they comprised snack foods. For each pair of images, participants rated their expected liking of the second course and selected ideal portion sizes, both for the second course and the first and second course, combined. In both studies, as the difference between the courses (from (i) same to (ii) similar to (iii) different) increased, the second course was selected in a larger portion and it was rated as more pleasant. To our knowledge, these are the first studies to show that the variety effect is evident in the energy content of self-selected meals. This work shows that effects of variety are learned and anticipated. This extends our characterisation beyond a passive process that develops towards the end of a meal.
Resumo:
Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.
Resumo:
Purpose: The effect of exercise on body mass is likely to be partially mediated through changes in appetite control. However, no studies have examined the effect of chronic exercise on obestatin and cholecystokinin (CCK) plasma concentrations or the sensitivity to detect differences in preload energy in obese individuals. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of chronic exercise on 1) fasting and postprandial plasma concentrations of obestatin, CCK, leptin, and glucose insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and 2) the accuracy of energy compensation in response to covert preload manipulation. Methods: This study used a 12-wk supervised exercise program in 22 sedentary overweight/obese individuals. Fasting/postprandial plasma concentrations of obestatin, CCK, leptin, and GIP were assessed before and after the intervention. Energy compensation at a 30-min test meal after a high-energy (607 kcal) or a low-energy (246 kcal) preload and for the rest of the day (cumulative energy intake [EI]) was also measured. Results: There was a significant reduction in the plasma concentration of fasting plasma GIP and both fasting and postprandial leptin concentrations after the exercise intervention (P < 0.05 for all). No significant changes were observed for CCK or obestatin. A significant preload–exercise interaction (P = 0.011) was observed on cumulative EI and energy compensation for the same period (−87% ± 196% vs 68% ± 165%, P = 0.011). Weight loss (3.5 ± 1.4 kg, P < 0.0001) was not correlated with changes in energy compensation. Conclusions: This study suggests that exercise improves the accuracy of compensation for previous EI, independent of weight loss. Unexpectedly, and in contrast to GIP and leptin, exercise-induced weight loss had no effect on obestatin or CCK concentrations.
Resumo:
Background: There are strong logical reasons why energy expended in metabolism should influence the energy acquired in food-intake behavior. However, the relation has never been established, and it is not known why certain people experience hunger in the presence of large amounts of body energy. Objective: We investigated the effect of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) on objective measures of whole-day food intake and hunger. Design: We carried out a 12-wk intervention that involved 41 overweight and obese men and women [mean ± SD age: 43.1 ± 7.5 y; BMI (in kg/m2): 30.7 ± 3.9] who were tested under conditions of physical activity (sedentary or active) and dietary energy density (17 or 10 kJ/g). RMR, daily energy intake, meal size, and hunger were assessed within the same day and across each condition. Results: We obtained evidence that RMR is correlated with meal size and daily energy intake in overweight and obese individuals. Participants with high RMRs showed increased levels of hunger across the day (P < 0.0001) and greater food intake (P < 0.00001) than did individuals with lower RMRs. These effects were independent of sex and food energy density. The change in RMR was also related to energy intake (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: We propose that RMR (largely determined by fat-free mass) may be a marker of energy intake and could represent a physiologic signal for hunger. These results may have implications for additional research possibilities in appetite, energy homeostasis, and obesity. This trial was registered under international standard identification for controlled trials as ISRCTN47291569.
Resumo:
Food in schools is typically understood from a biomedical perspective. At practical, ideational and material levels, whether addressed pedagogically or bureaucratically, food in schools is generally considered from a natural sciences perspective. This perspective manifests as the bioenergetic principle of energy in versus energy out and appears in policy focused on issues such as obesity and physical activity. Despite the considerable literature on the sociology of food and eating, little is understood about food in schools from a sociological perspective. This oversight of one of the most fundamental requirements of the human condition--namely, food--should be of concern for educators. Investigating food through a political economy lens means understanding food in schools as part of broader economic, political, social and cultural conditions. Hence, a political economy of food and schooling is concerned with the formation of ideas about food relative to political, economic, and cultural ideologies in social practice. From a critical sociology study of food messages students receive in the primary school curriculum, this paper reports on some of the official food messages of an Australian state's education policy, as a case to highlight the current political economy of food in Australia. It examines the role of the corporate food industry in the formation of Australian food policy and how that policy created artefacts infused with competing messages. The paper highlights how food and nutrition policy moved from solely a health concern to incorporate an economic dimension and links that shift with the quality of food available in Queensland schools.