Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

QUT Speaker Identity Verification system for EVALITA 2009

This document outlines the system submitted by the Speech and Audio Research Laboratory at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) for the Speaker Identity Verification: Application task of EVALITA 2009. This competitive submission consisted of a score-level fusion of three component systems; a joint-factor analysis GMM system and two SVM systems using GLDS and GMM supervector kernels. Development evaluation and post-submission results are presented in this study, demonstrating the effectiveness of this fused system approach. This study highlights the challenges associated with system calibration from limited development data and that mismatch between training and testing conditions continues to be a major source of error in speaker verification technology.

Ocklawaha River restoration : the fate of the Rodman Reservoir

The Rodman Reservoir, an impoundment on the Ocklawaha River in north central Florida, is a last remnant of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal (CFBC). The canal, conceived in the 1820's, was designed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to shorten shipping lanes between the Fulf ports and the Atlantic coast. Opposition to CFBC by Florida's young environmental movement led to a half in construction of the CFBC in 1971, but decommissioning of the already-constructed Rodman dam and the reservoir behind it has been mired in controversy every since.

How do level of experience, purpose for riding, and preference for facilities affect location of riding?

Characteristics of the road infrastructure affect both the popularity of bicycling and its safety, but comparisons of the safety performance of infrastructure may be confounded by differences in the profiles of cyclists who use them. Data from a survey of 2,532 adult bicycle riders in Queensland, Australia, demonstrated that many riders rode reluctantly in particular locations and that preference for riding location was influenced by degree of experience and riding purpose. Most riders rode most often and furthest per week on urban roads, but approximately one-third of all riders (and more new riders) rode there reluctantly. Almost two-thirds of riders rode on bicycle paths, most by choice, not reluctantly. New riders rode proportionally more on bicycle paths, but continuing riders rode further in absolute terms. Utilitarian riders were more likely to ride on bicycle paths than social and fitness riders and almost all of this riding was by choice. Fitness riders were more reluctant in their use of bicycle paths, but still most of their use was by choice. One-third of the respondents reported riding on the sidewalk (legal in Queensland), with approximately two-thirds doing so reluctantly. The frequency and distance ridden on the sidewalk was less than for urban roads and bicycle paths. Sidewalks and bicycle paths were important facilities for both inexperienced and experienced riders and for utilitarian riding, especially when urban roads were considered a poor choice for cycling.

Evolution of life drama program

Life Drama is a program of drama-based experiential learning activities involving groups of community leaders and members. The three-year project evolved from a theatre-in-education approach to an intercultural theatre approach incorporating Papua New Guinean performance traditions. It involved Australian, English and Papua New Guinean researchers at four key sites: Tari, Southern Highlands Province; Port Moresby, National Capital District; Madang, Madang Province; and Karkar Island, Madang Province. The project was innovative in a number of ways, including: a Participatory Action Research approach, involving community leaders at various levels as co-researchers; a participatory theatre approach as opposed to a performance approach; emphasis on sexual health promotion and HIV prevention through an experiential learning paradigm; addressing the norms and realities of the community rather than targeting only individual behaviour; an International Theatre Research Laboratory to explore the fusion of traditional cultural elements with contemporary health promotion aims; and an innovative method-assemblage approach to collecting and triangulating quantitative, qualitative, and performative data. The project attracted over $350,000 in funding and support from the Australian Research Council, National AIDS Secretariat in PNG, and private sector and non-government partners. Findings were presented at various conferences and symposia including the annual Medical Symposium in Wewak (2010), the triennial Research in Drama Education conference in Exeter (2011), and the International Research in Drama Education conference (Sydney 2009 and Limerick 2012). A number of peer-reviewed journal articles have been published. Elements of the program have been incorporated into the University of Goroka's compulsory HIV awareness program for undergraduate students. A national dissemination strategy for Life Drama in Papua New Guinea is now underway, with seed funding of AUD$74,000 from the National AIDS Council Secretariat, PNG.

Numerical models to simulate the thermal performance of LSF wall panels

Fire safety of buildings has been recognised as very important by the building industry and the community at large. Gypsum plasterboards are widely used to protect light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls all over the world. Gypsum contains free and chemically bound water in its crystal structure. Plasterboard also contains gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) and calcium carbonate (CaCO3). The dehydration of gypsum and the decomposition of calcium carbonate absorb heat, and thus are able to protect LSF walls from fires. Kolarkar and Mahendran (2008) developed an innovative composite wall panel system, where the insulation was sandwiched between two plasterboards to improve the thermal and structural performance of LSF wall panels under fire conditions. In order to understand the performance of gypsum plasterboards and LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions, many experiments were conducted in the Fire Research Laboratory of Queensland University of Technology (Kolarkar, 2010). Fire tests were conducted on single, double and triple layers of Type X gypsum plasterboards and load bearing LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. However, suitable numerical models have not been developed to investigate the thermal performance of LSF walls using the innovative composite panels under standard fire conditions. Continued reliance on expensive and time consuming fire tests is not acceptable. Therefore this research developed suitable numerical models to investigate the thermal performance of both plasterboard assemblies and load bearing LSF wall panels. SAFIR, a finite element program, was used to investigate the thermal performance of gypsum plasterboard assemblies and LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. Appropriate values of important thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests, literature review and comparisons of finite element analysis results of small scale plasterboard assemblies from this research and corresponding experimental results from Kolarkar (2010). The important thermal properties (thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and density) of gypsum plasterboard and insulation materials were proposed as functions of temperature and used in the numerical models of load bearing LSF wall panels. Using these thermal properties, the developed finite element models were able to accurately predict the time temperature profiles of plasterboard assemblies while they predicted them reasonably well for load bearing LSF wall systems despite the many complexities that are present in these LSF wall systems under fires. This thesis presents the details of the finite element models of plasterboard assemblies and load bearing LSF wall panels including those with the composite panels developed by Kolarkar and Mahendran (2008). It examines and compares the thermal performance of composite panels developed based on different insulating materials of varying densities and thicknesses based on 11 small scale tests, and makes suitable recommendations for improved fire performance of stud wall panels protected by these composite panels. It also presents the thermal performance data of LSF wall systems and demonstrates the superior performance of LSF wall systems using the composite panels. Using the developed finite element of models of LSF walls, this thesis has proposed new LSF wall systems with increased fire rating. The developed finite element models are particularly useful in comparing the thermal performance of different wall panel systems without time consuming and expensive fire tests.

Sustainable urban transport : smart technology initiatives in Singapore

Achieving sustainability is one of the major goals of many urban transportation systems. Over the years, many innovative policies have been attempted to achieve an efficient, safe, and sustainable transport system. Those policies often require smart technologies to assist implementation process and enhance effectiveness. This paper discusses how sustainability can be promoted by embedding smart technologies in a modern transportation system. In particular, this paper studies the transport system of Singapore to address how this system is addressing sustainability through the use of smart technologies. Various technological initiatives in managing traffic flow, monitoring and enforcement, sharing real-time information, and managing revenues are discussed in light of their potentiality in addressing sustainability issues. The Singapore experience provides a useful reference for the cities intending to develop and promote a sustainable transport system.

Passenger transmission and productiveness of transit lines with high loads

Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.

Importance of a resilient air services network to Australian remote, rural, and regional communities

Rural, regional, and remote settlements in Australia require resilient infrastructure to remain sustainable in a context characterized by frequent large-scale natural disasters, long distances between urban centers, and the pressures of economic change. A critical aspect of this infrastructure is the air services network, a system of airports, aircraft operators, and related industries that enables the high-speed movement of people, goods, and services to remote locations. A process of deregulation during the 1970s and 1980s resulted in many of these airports passing into local government and private ownership, and the rationalization of the industry saw the closure of a number of airlines and airports. This paper examines the impacts of deregulation on the resilience of air services and the contribution that they make to regional and rural communities. In particular, the robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity of the system are examined. The conclusion is that while the air services network has remained resilient in a situation of considerable change, the pressures of commercialization and the tendency to manage aspects of the system in isolation have contributed to a potential decrease in overall resilience.

Design of open source framework for traffic and travel simulation

For the evaluation, design, and planning of traffic facilities and measures, traffic simulation packages are the de facto tools for consultants, policy makers, and researchers. However, the available commercial simulation packages do not always offer the desired work flow and flexibility for academic research. In many cases, researchers resort to designing and building their own dedicated models, without an intrinsic incentive (or the practical means) to make the results available in the public domain. To make matters worse, a substantial part of these efforts pertains to rebuilding basic functionality and, in many respects, reinventing the wheel. This problem not only affects the research community but adversely affects the entire traffic simulation community and frustrates the development of traffic simulation in general. For this problem to be addressed, this paper describes an open source approach, OpenTraffic, which is being developed as a collaborative effort between the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; the National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo; and the Technical University of Delft, the Netherlands. The OpenTraffic simulation framework enables academies from geographic areas and disciplines within the traffic domain to work together and contribute to a specific topic of interest, ranging from travel choice behavior to car following, and from response to intelligent transportation systems to activity planning. The modular approach enables users of the software to focus on their area of interest, whereas other functional modules can be regarded as black boxes. Specific attention is paid to a standardization of data inputs and outputs for traffic simulations. Such standardization will allow the sharing of data with many existing commercial simulation packages.

Near Infrared Spectroscopy Evaluation of Articular Cartilage : Decision-Making in Arthroplasty : Real-Time Assessment of Articular Cartilage

Current diagnostic methods for assessing the severity of articular cartilage degenerative conditions, such as osteoarthritis, are inadequate. There is also a lack of techniques that can be used for real-time evaluation of the tissue during surgery to inform treatment decision and eliminate subjectivity. This book, derived from Dr Afara’s doctoral research, presents a scientific framework that is based on near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for facilitating the non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage health relative to its structural, functional, and mechanical properties. This development is a component of the ongoing research on advanced endoscopic diagnostic techniques in the Articular Cartilage Biomechanics Research Laboratory of Professor Adekunle Oloyede at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane Australia.

Ubiquitous customer relationship management : unforeseen issues and benefits

Convergence of pervasive technologies, techno-centric customers and the emergence of digitized channels, overabundance of user friendly retail applications are having a profound impact on retail experience, leading to the advent of ‘everywhere retailing’. With the rapid uptake of digital complimentary assets and smart mobile applications are revolutionizing the relationship of retailers with their customers and suppliers. Retail firms are increasingly investing substantial resources on dynamic Customer Relationship Management systems (D-CRM / U-CRM) to better engage with customers to sense and respond quickly (Agility of the firm) to their demands. However, unlike traditional CRM systems, engagement with U-CRM systems requires that firms be hyper sensitive to volatile customer needs and wants. Following the notions of firm agility, this study attempts to develop a framework to understand such unforeseen benefits and issues of U-CRM. This research-in-progress paper reports an a-priory framework including 62 U-CRM benefits derived through an archival analysis of literature.

Algorithm for queue estimation with loop detector of time occupancy in off-ramps on signalized motorways

Long traffic queues on off-ramps significantly compromise the safety and throughput of motorways. Obtaining accurate queue information is crucial for countermeasure strategies. However, it is challenging to estimate traffic queues with locally installed inductive loop detectors. This paper deals with the problem of queue estimation with the interpretation of queuing dynamics and the corresponding time-occupancy distribution over motorway off-ramps. A novel algorithm for real-time queue estimation with two detectors is presented and discussed. Results derived from microscopic traffic simulation validated the effectiveness of the algorithm and revealed some of its useful features: (a) long and intermediate traffic queues could be accurately measured, (b) relatively simple detector input (i.e., time occupancy) was required, and (c) the estimation philosophy was independent with signal timing changes and provided the potential to cooperate with advanced strategies for signal control. Some issues concerning field implementation are also discussed.

Traffic queue estimation for metered motorway on-ramps through use of loop detector time occupancies

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is a vital input for dynamic queue management on metered on-ramps. Accurate and reliable queue information enables the management of on-ramp queue in an adaptive manner to the actual traffic queue size and thus minimises the adverse impacts of queue flush while increasing the benefit of ramp metering. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.