An effective network traffic classification method with unknown flow detection

Traffic classification technique is an essential tool for network and system security in the complex environments such as cloud computing based environment. The state-of-the-art traffic classification methods aim to take the advantages of flow statistical features and machine learning techniques, however the classification performance is severely affected by limited supervised information and unknown applications. To achieve effective network traffic classification, we propose a new method to tackle the problem of unknown applications in the crucial situation of a small supervised training set. The proposed method possesses the superior capability of detecting unknown flows generated by unknown applications and utilizing the correlation information among real-world network traffic to boost the classification performance. A theoretical analysis is provided to confirm performance benefit of the proposed method. Moreover, the comprehensive performance evaluation conducted on two real-world network traffic datasets shows that the proposed scheme outperforms the existing methods in the critical network environment.

Video driven traffic modelling

We propose Video Driven Traffic Modelling (VDTM) for accurate simulation of real-world traffic behaviours with detailed information and low-cost model development and maintenance. Computer vision techniques are employed to estimate traffic parameters. These parameters are used to build and update a traffic system model. The model is simulated using the Paramics traffic simulation platform. Based on the simulation techniques, effects of traffic interventions can be evaluated in order to achieve better decision makings for traffic management authorities. In this paper, traffic parameters such as vehicle types, times of starting trips and corresponding origin-destinations are extracted from a video. A road network is manually defined according to the traffic composition in the video, and individual vehicles associated with extracted properties are modelled and simulated within the defined road network using Paramics. VDTM has widespread potential applications in supporting traffic decision-makings. To demonstrate the effectiveness, we apply it in optimizing a traffic signal control system, which adaptively adjusts green times of signals at an intersection to reduce traffic congestion.

Neural network and interval type-2 fuzzy system for stock price forecasting

Stock price forecast has long been received special attention of investors and financial institutions. As stock prices are changeable over time and increasingly uncertain in modern financial markets, their forecasting becomes more important than ever before. A hybrid approach consisting of two components, a neural network and a fuzzy logic system, is proposed in this paper for stock price prediction. The first component of the hybrid, i.e. a feedforward neural network (FFNN), is used to select inputs that are highly relevant to the dependent variables. An interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2 FLS) is employed as the second component of the hybrid forecasting method. The IT2 FLS’s parameters are initialized through deployment of the k-means clustering method and they are adjusted by the genetic algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of the FFNN input selection approach as it reduces the complexity and increase the accuracy of the forecasting models. In addition, IT2 FLS outperforms the widely used type-1 FLS and FFNN models in stock price forecasting. The combination of the FFNN and the IT2 FLS produces dominant forecasting accuracy compared to employing only the IT2 FLSs without the FFNN input selection.

Neural network ensemble : evaluation of aggregation algorithms for electricity demand forecasting

This paper examines and analyzes different aggregation algorithms to improve accuracy of forecasts obtained using neural network (NN) ensembles. These algorithms include equal-weights combination of Best NN models, combination of trimmed forecasts, and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The predictive performance of these algorithms are evaluated using Australian electricity demand data. The output of the aggregation algorithms of NN ensembles are compared with a Naive approach. Mean absolute percentage error is applied as the performance index for assessing the quality of aggregated forecasts. Through comprehensive simulations, it is found that the aggregation algorithms can significantly improve the forecasting accuracies. The BMA algorithm also demonstrates the best performance amongst aggregation algorithms investigated in this study.

Prediction intervals for electricity load forecasting using neural networks

Most of the research in time series is concerned with point forecasting. In this paper we focus on interval forecasting and its application for electricity load prediction. We extend the LUBE method, a neural network-based method for computing prediction intervals. The extended method, called LUBEX, includes an advanced feature selector and an ensemble of neural networks. Its performance is evaluated using Australian electricity load data for one year. The results showed that LUBEX is able to generate high quality prediction intervals, using a very small number of previous lag variables and having acceptable training time requirements. The use of ensemble is shown to be critical for the accuracy of the results.

2Loud? Monitoring traffic noise with mobile phones

The World Health Organization has recently focused attention on guidelines for night noise in urban areas, based on significant medical evidence of the adverse impacts of exposure to excessive traffic noise on health, especially caused by sleep disturbance. This includes serious illnesses, such as hypertension, arteriosclerosis and myocardial infarction. 2Loud? is a research project with the aim of developing and testing a mobile phone application to allow a community to monitor traffic noise in their environment, with focus on the night period and indoor measurement. Individuals, using mobile phones, provide data on characteristics of their dwellings and systematically record the level of noise inside their homes overnight. The records from multiple individuals are sent to a server, integrated into indicators and shared through mapping. The 2Loud? application is not designed to replace existing scientific measurements, but to add information which is currently not available. Noise measurements to assist the planning and management of traffic noise are normally carried out by designated technicians, using sophisticated equipment, and following specific guidelines for outdoors locations. This process provides very accurate records, however, for being a time consuming and expensive system, it results in a limited number of locations being surveyed and long time between updates. Moreover, scientific noise measurements do not survey inside dwellings. In this paper we present and discuss the participatory process proposed, and currently under implementation and test, to characterize the levels of exposure to traffic noise of residents living in the vicinity of highways in the City of Boroondara (Victoria, Australia) using the 2Loud? application.

Drivers display anger-congruent attention to potential traffic hazards

Previous research has suggested that angry drivers may respond differently to potential hazards. This study replicates and extends these findings. Under simulated driving conditions, two groups of drivers experienced conditions that would either increase angry mood (N=12; men =6) or not (control group, N =12; men=6). All drivers then performed a neutral drive, during which they encountered a number of traffic events not experienced in the initial drive. These included vehicles emerging from driveways into their path and jaywalking pedestrians. Subjective anger, eye-movement behaviour and driving behaviours (speed and reaction times) were measured as drivers drove. Subjective moods (Profile of Mood States) were assessed before and after each drive. Anger-provoked drivers reported reliably higher increases in angry mood when compared with the control group after the initial drive, and these increases remained stable across the subsequent neutral drive. During the neutral drive, anger provoked drivers demonstrated evidence of more heuristic style processing of potential hazards, with shorter initial gazes at less apparent hazards and longer latencies to look back at jaywalking pedestrians obscured by parked vehicles. Anger-provoked drivers also took longer to make corrective actions to avoid potential collisions. It is concluded that anger-provoked drivers may initially make more superficial assessments of certain driving situations and consequently underestimate the inherent risk.