The belief in TAP

We show the similarity between belief propagation and TAP, for decoding corrupted messages encoded by Sourlas's method. The latter is a special case of the Gallager error- correcting code, where the code word comprises products of K bits selected randomly from the original message. We examine the efficacy of solutions obtained by the two methods for various values of K and show that solutions for K>=3 may be sensitive to the choice of initial conditions in the case of unbiased patterns. Good approximations are obtained generally for K=2 and for biased patterns in the case of K>=3, especially when Nishimori's temperature is being used.

Sparse representation for Gaussian process models

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world datasets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

Advanced mean field methods:theory and practice

A major problem in modern probabilistic modeling is the huge computational complexity involved in typical calculations with multivariate probability distributions when the number of random variables is large. Because exact computations are infeasible in such cases and Monte Carlo sampling techniques may reach their limits, there is a need for methods that allow for efficient approximate computations. One of the simplest approximations is based on the mean field method, which has a long history in statistical physics. The method is widely used, particularly in the growing field of graphical models. Researchers from disciplines such as statistical physics, computer science, and mathematical statistics are studying ways to improve this and related methods and are exploring novel application areas. Leading approaches include the variational approach, which goes beyond factorizable distributions to achieve systematic improvements; the TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer) approach, which incorporates correlations by including effective reaction terms in the mean field theory; and the more general methods of graphical models. Bringing together ideas and techniques from these diverse disciplines, this book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling.

General bounds on Bayes errors for regression with Gaussian processes

Based on a simple convexity lemma, we develop bounds for different types of Bayesian prediction errors for regression with Gaussian processes. The basic bounds are formulated for a fixed training set. Simpler expressions are obtained for sampling from an input distribution which equals the weight function of the covariance kernel, yielding asymptotically tight results. The results are compared with numerical experiments.

Mean field methods for classification with Gaussian processes

We discuss the Application of TAP mean field methods known from Statistical Mechanics of disordered systems to Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes. In contrast to previous applications, no knowledge about the distribution of inputs is needed. Simulation results for the Sonar data set are given.

Advances in large margin classifiers

We apply methods of Statistical Mechanics to study the generalization performance of Support vector Machines in large data spaces.

TAP for parity check error correcting codes

We employ the methods presented in the previous chapter for decoding corrupted codewords, encoded using sparse parity check error correcting codes. We show the similarity between the equations derived from the TAP approach and those obtained from belief propagation, and examine their performance as practical decoding methods.

Error-correcting codes on a Bethe-like lattice

We analyse Gallager codes by employing a simple mean-field approximation that distorts the model geometry and preserves important interactions between sites. The method naturally recovers the probability propagation decoding algorithm as a minimization of a proper free-energy. We find a thermodynamical phase transition that coincides with information theoretical upper-bounds and explain the practical code performance in terms of the free-energy landscape.

A variational approach to learning curves

We combine the replica approach from statistical physics with a variational approach to analyze learning curves analytically. We apply the method to Gaussian process regression. As a main result we derive approximative relations between empirical error measures, the generalization error and the posterior variance.

Message passing for task redistribution on sparse graphs

The problem of resource allocation in sparse graphs with real variables is studied using methods of statistical physics. An efficient distributed algorithm is devised on the basis of insight gained from the analysis and is examined using numerical simulations, showing excellent performance and full agreement with the theoretical results.

Artefactual structure from least squares multidimensional scaling

We consider the problem of illusory or artefactual structure from the visualisation of high-dimensional structureless data. In particular we examine the role of the distance metric in the use of topographic mappings based on the statistical field of multidimensional scaling. We show that the use of a squared Euclidean metric (i.e. the SSTRESs measure) gives rise to an annular structure when the input data is drawn from a high-dimensional isotropic distribution, and we provide a theoretical justification for this observation.

The TAP approach to intensive and extensive connectivity systems

The Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) approach was originally developed for analysing the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model in the study of spin glass models and has been employed since then mainly in the context of extensively connected systems whereby each dynamical variable interacts weakly with the others. Recently, we extended this method for handling general intensively connected systems where each variable has only O(1) connections characterised by strong couplings. However, the new formulation looks quite different with respect to existing analyses and it is only natural to question whether it actually reproduces known results for systems of extensive connectivity. In this chapter, we apply our formulation of the TAP approach to an extensively connected system, the Hopfield associative memory model, showing that it produces identical results to those obtained by the conventional formulation.

Biochemical correlates of cognition: exploring the relationships between blood, brain and behaviour

This multi-modal investigation aimed to refine analytic tools including proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) and fatty acid gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis, for use with adult and paediatric populations, to investigate potential biochemical underpinnings of cognition (Chapter 1). Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are vital for the normal development and function of neural cells. There is increasing evidence of behavioural impairments arising from dietary deprivation of EFAs and their long-chain fatty acid metabolites (Chapter 2). Paediatric liver disease was used as a deficiency model to examine the relationships between EFA status and cognitive outcomes. Age-appropriate Wechsler assessments measured Full-scale IQ (FSIQ) and Information Processing Speed (IPS) in clinical and healthy cohorts; GC-MS quantified surrogate markers of EFA status in erythrocyte membranes; and 1H-MRS quantified neurometabolite markers of neuronal viability and function in cortical tissue (Chapter 3). Post-transplant children with early-onset liver disease demonstrated specific deficits in IPS compared to age-matched acute liver failure transplant patients and sibling controls, suggesting that the time-course of the illness is a key factor (Chapter 4). No signs of EFA deficiency were observed in the clinical cohort, suggesting that EFA metabolism was not significantly impacted by liver disease. A strong, negative correlation was observed between omega-6 fatty acids and FSIQ, independent of disease diagnosis (Chapter 5). In a study of healthy adults, effect sizes for the relationship between 1H-MRS- detectable neurometabolites and cognition fell within the range of previous work, but were not statistically significant. Based on these findings, recommendations are made emphasising the need for hypothesis-driven enquiry and greater subtlety of data analysis (Chapter 6). Consistency of metabolite values between paediatric clinical cohorts and controls indicate normal neurodevelopment, but the lack of normative, age-matched data makes it difficult to assess the true strength of liver disease-associated metabolite changes (Chapter 7). Converging methods offer a challenging but promising and novel approach to exploring brain-behaviour relationships from micro- to macroscopic levels of analysis (Chapter 8).

Increasing the use of simulation in business

The nature of Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) and the use of DES in organisations is changing. Two important developments are the use of Visual Interactive Modelling systems and the use of DES in Business Process Management (BPM) projects. Survey research is presented that shows that despite these developments usage of DES remains relatively low due to a lack of knowledge of the benefits of the technique. This paper considers two factors that could lead to a greater achievement and appreciation of the full benefit of DES and thus lead to greater usage. Firstly in relation to using DES to investigate social systems, both in the process of undertaking a simulation project and in the interpretation of the findings a 'soft' approach may generate more knowledge from the DES intervention and thus increase its benefit to businesses. Secondly in order to assess the full range of outcomes of DES the technique could be considered from the perspective of an information processing tool within the organisation. This will allow outcomes to be considered under the three modes of organisational information use of sense making, knowledge creating and decision making which relate to the theoretical areas of knowledge management, organisational learning and decision making respectively. The association of DES with these popular techniques could further increase its usage in business.

Capabilities for strategic flexibility:a cognitive content framework

Different forms of strategic flexibility allow for reactive adaptation to different changing environments and the proactive driving of change. It is therefore becoming increasingly important for decision makers to not only possess marketing capabilities, but also the capabilities for strategic flexibility in its various forms. However, our knowledge of the relationships between decision makers’ different ways of thinking and their capabilities for strategic flexibility is limited. This limitation is constraining research and understanding. In this article we develop a theoretical cognitive content framework that postulates relationships between different ways of thinking about strategy and different information-processing demands. We then outline how the contrasting beliefs of decision makers may influence their capabilities to generate different hybrid forms of strategic flexibility at the cognitive level. Theoretically, the framework is embedded in resource-based theory, personal construct theory and schema theory. The implications for research and theory are discussed.